Northern Ariz. at Texas Southern

Set	1*	2	3	Sets
NAU	25	25	–	2
TX SOU	13	19	–	0

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

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Win probability

TX SOU above 50 · NAU below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Texas Southern — set 1, NAU 3-4 TX SOU. Texas Southern ace on Quincey Coyle. TX SOU win probability 3% → 3%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NAU 97.5%2.5% TX SOU

Northern Ariz. wins

3-0

64.7%

3-1

26.2%

3-2

6.6%

Texas Southern wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.6%

3-2

1.6%

NAU break %: 52.2% vs this opp
TX SOU break %: 37.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
TX SOU serverAce+0.5%
Texas Southern ace on Quincey Coyle
Set 1 · NAU 3-4 TX SOU · TX SOU 3% → 3%
02
TX SOU serverAce+0.4%
Texas Southern ace on Quincey Coyle
Set 2 · NAU 14-14 TX SOU · TX SOU 1% → 2%
03
Morgynne McqueenKill+0.4%
Kill by Morgynne Mcqueen (set by Kadence Davison)
Set 1 · NAU 3-3 TX SOU · TX SOU 2% → 3%
04
Lauren BattleAttack error+0.4%
Lauren Battle stuffed by Avery Gottschalk & Laney Wilson
Set 1 · NAU 5-4 TX SOU · NAU 97% → 98%
05
Quincey CoyleKill+0.3%
Kill by Quincey Coyle (set by Taryn Davis)
Set 2 · NAU 16-14 TX SOU · NAU 99% → 99%
06
Hanah StoddardKill+0.3%
Kill by Hanah Stoddard (set by Taryn Davis)
Set 1 · NAU 4-4 TX SOU · NAU 97% → 97%
07
Gracie LeeAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Gracie Lee
Set 1 · NAU 6-4 TX SOU · NAU 98% → 98%
08
Gigi GreenleeKill+0.3%
Kill by Gigi Greenlee (set by Ella Hosfeld)
Set 2 · NAU 15-14 TX SOU · NAU 98% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Northern Ariz.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Hanah StoddardOH	3	9	0	26	.346	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	9
3Gigi GreenleeMB	3	6	1	12	.417	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
22Quincey CoyleOH	3	5	2	15	.200	0	0	1	6	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
14Avery GottschalkMB	3	1	0	2	.500	0	0	1	3	0	1	2	2	3
9Masina PerezOH	3	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Taryn DavisS	3	0	0	0	–	13	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
12Laney WilsonOH	3	4	1	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
18Kate FedericoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	3	9	0	0	0	0	1
7Ella HosfeldS	3	0	0	0	–	9	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
31Kate CampMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11Avalon LeggL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Lilly HolmesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Hannah PushckorMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Mallory ReynoldsS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Georgi SteinOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Lauren EdlundOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Peyton DevlinOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	5	66	.333	23	3	7	31	2	1	8	5	50

Texas Southernhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Lauren BattleOH	3	6	4	19	.105	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	7
6Ava HoustonMB	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4
7Morgynne McqueenMB	3	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
2Lacey KusnierOH	3	1	3	6	-.333	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	1
21Aliyah Spencer—	3	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
11Ava RayS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
4Selana MoralesOH	3	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2
10Emory HarperOPP	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
3Gracie LeeOH	3	1	3	11	-.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
20Aaliyah BrownMB	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Kadence DavisonS	3	0	0	0	–	10	1	0	5	0	0	0	1
12Keldri YoungOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Lauanna PinoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0
15Kaiulani SherrowS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Keagan St. juniousL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
5Morelia Lorenzo diazL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Kennedi WalkerS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		18	15	68	.044	17	2	3	31	3	2	1	32

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 NAU · TX SOU 3

Set 1*

25-13

Longest run 4 NAUTX SOU 3

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 5 NAUTX SOU 3

Bars above the line = Texas Southern leads, below = Northern Ariz. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

82 rallies

Rally log

#	NAU-TX SOU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Taryn Davis	+0.2
2	1-1	NAU	TX SOU	Serve err	NAU server		+0.3
3	2-1	TX SOU	NAU	Ball handling	Morgynne Mcqueen		+0.2
4	3-1	NAU	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Kate Federico	+0.3
5	3-2	NAU	TX SOU×3	Serve err	NAU server		+0.2
6	3-3	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Morgynne Mcqueen	set Kadence Davison	+0.4
7	3-4	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Quincey Coyle	+0.5
8	4-4	TX SOU	NAU×3	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+0.3
9	5-4	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Lauren Battle	blk Avery Gottschalk, Laney Wilson	+0.4
10	6-4	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Gracie Lee		+0.3
11	6-5	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Morgynne Mcqueen	set Kadence Davison	+0.3
12	7-5	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Avery Gottschalk	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.2
13	7-6	NAU	TX SOU	Attack err	Quincey Coyle	set Kate Federico	+0.3
14	8-6	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.3
15	8-7	NAU	TX SOU	Serve err	NAU server		+0.3
16	9-7	TX SOU	NAU×3	Kill	Laney Wilson	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.3
17	10-7	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Lacey Kusnier		+0.3
18	11-7	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Ava Houston		+0.2
19	11-8	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+0.2
20	12-8	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Taryn Davis	+0.2
21	13-8	NAU	NAU	Attack err	Lauren Battle		+0.2
22	13-9	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+0.1
23	14-9	TX SOU	NAU	Attack err	Ava Houston	set Lacey Kusnier	+0.1
24	14-10	NAU	TX SOU	Attack err	Masina Perez	set Kate Federico	+0.1
25	15-10	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+0.1
26	16-10	NAU	NAU	Ace	NAU server	aced Lacey Kusnier	+0.1
27	16-11	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+0.1
28	17-11	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Laney Wilson	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.1
29	18-11	NAU	NAU	Attack err	Morgynne Mcqueen	blk Avery Gottschalk	+0.1
30	18-12	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Kadence Davison	+0.0
31	19-12	TX SOU	NAU×3	Serve err	TX SOU server		+0.1
32	20-12	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Lacey Kusnier		+0.0
33	21-12	NAU	NAU×3	Attack err	Selana Morales	blk Laney Wilson, Gigi Greenlee	+0.0
34	21-13	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle		+0.0
35	22-13	TX SOU	NAU×4	Kill	Laney Wilson	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.0
36	23-13	NAU	NAU×4	Attack err	Aliyah Spencer		+0.0
37	24-13	NAU	NAU×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
38	25-13	NAU	NAU×4	Ace	NAU server	aced Lauanna Pino	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NAU	NAU×4	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Taryn Davis	+0.2
2	2-0	NAU	NAU×4	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+0.2
3	3-0	NAU	NAU×4	Attack err	Lacey Kusnier	blk Masina Perez, Avery Gottschalk	+0.1
4	4-0	NAU	NAU×4	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+0.1
5	4-1	NAU	TX SOU	Serve err	NAU server		+0.1
6	5-1	TX SOU	NAU	Serve err	TX SOU server		+0.1
7	5-2	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+0.1
8	6-2	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.1
9	6-3	NAU	TX SOU	Serve err	NAU server		+0.1
10	7-3	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.1
11	7-4	NAU	TX SOU	Attack err	Quincey Coyle	set Hanah Stoddard	+0.1
12	8-4	TX SOU	NAU	Attack err	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+0.1
13	8-5	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Aaliyah Brown	set Kadence Davison	+0.1
14	9-5	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Taryn Davis	+0.1
15	9-6	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Gracie Lee	set Kadence Davison	+0.1
16	10-6	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Gigi Greenlee		+0.1
17	11-6	NAU	NAU	Ace	NAU server	aced Selana Morales	+0.1
18	11-7	NAU	TX SOU	Serve err	NAU server		+0.1
19	12-7	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Masina Perez	set Taryn Davis	+0.1
20	12-8	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Ava Ray	+0.1
21	13-8	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.1
22	13-9	NAU	TX SOU×3	Serve err	NAU server		+0.1
23	13-10	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lauren Battle		+0.1
24	13-11	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Laney Wilson		+0.2
25	14-11	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Laney Wilson		+0.2
26	14-12	NAU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Keagan St. junious	+0.2
27	14-13	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Selana Morales	set Kadence Davison	+0.3
28	14-14	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Quincey Coyle	+0.4
29	15-14	TX SOU	NAU×5	Kill	Gigi Greenlee	set Ella Hosfeld	+0.3
30	16-14	NAU	NAU×5	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Taryn Davis	+0.3
31	17-14	NAU	NAU×5	Attack err	Gracie Lee		+0.3
32	18-14	NAU	NAU×5	Attack err	Gracie Lee	blk Quincey Coyle, Gigi Greenlee	+0.2
33	19-14	NAU	NAU×5	Kill	Gigi Greenlee		+0.1
34	19-15	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Selana Morales	set Kadence Davison	+0.1
35	19-16	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Gigi Greenlee	blk Emory Harper, Morgynne Mcqueen	+0.2
36	20-16	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Quincey Coyle	set Taryn Davis	+0.2
37	20-17	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Emory Harper	set Kadence Davison	+0.1
38	21-17	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+0.2
39	22-17	NAU	NAU	Kill	Masina Perez		+0.1
40	22-18	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+0.1
41	23-18	TX SOU	NAU	Kill	Hanah Stoddard	set Taryn Davis	+0.1
42	24-18	NAU	NAU	Attack err	Lauren Battle		+0.0
43	24-19	NAU	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Keagan St. junious	+0.0
44	25-19	TX SOU	NAU	Serve err	TX SOU server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Northern Ariz. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.