FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayMAC

3:0

HomeMETRO

Kent St. def. Niagara 3–0

(25-21, 25-20, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
KENT	25	25	25	3
NIAGRA	21	20	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NIAGRA above 50 · KENT below

Biggest swing: 1.4% to Niagara — set 1, KENT 15-16 NIAGRA. Kill by Katelynn Rottman (set by Noel Perkins). NIAGRA win probability 6% → 8%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

KENT 95.1%4.9% NIAGRA

Kent St. wins

3-0

55.7%

3-1

29.6%

3-2

9.8%

Niagara wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.4%

3-2

3.0%

KENT break %: 50.8% vs this opp
NIAGRA break %: 38.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Katelynn RottmanKill+1.4%
Kill by Katelynn Rottman (set by Noel Perkins)
Set 1 · KENT 15-16 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 6% → 8%
02
Payton LeeAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Payton Lee
Set 1 · KENT 21-19 NIAGRA · KENT 94% → 96%
03
Adalynn GinleyKill+1.3%
Kill by Adalynn Ginley (set by Christina Vigil)
Set 1 · KENT 18-17 NIAGRA · KENT 93% → 95%
04
Mercedez BrownAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Mercedez Brown
Set 1 · KENT 19-19 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 6% → 7%
05
Macie MorelandBad set+1.2%
Bad set by Macie Moreland
Set 1 · KENT 16-17 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 7% → 8%
06
Karlotta KattaiBad set+1.2%
Bad set by Karlotta Kattai
Set 1 · KENT 20-19 NIAGRA · KENT 93% → 94%
07
Katelynn RottmanKill+1.1%
Kill by Katelynn Rottman (set by Noel Perkins)
Set 1 · KENT 18-18 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 5% → 7%
08
Katelynn RottmanKill+1.1%
Kill by Katelynn Rottman (set by Ashley Moreland)
Set 1 · KENT 15-15 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 5% → 6%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Kent St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Adalynn GinleyMB	3	11	2	16	.563	1	1	1	2	0	1	2	2	14
7Mercedez BrownOH	3	12	5	30	.233	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	12
6Liliana MechuraMB	3	9	1	17	.471	1	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	10
11Vanessa ImohOH	3	6	3	14	.214	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
14Christina VigilS	3	3	0	14	.214	33	0	2	4	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
4Hailey BrennerDS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	1	0	10	0	0	0	0	1
10Macie MorelandOH	3	6	3	17	.176	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	6
12Catie PattersonDS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
5Lesley FurutaL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	3	1	0	14	1	0	0	0	1
8Nadia MillerMB	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	14	113	.292	40	5	6	49	2	1	8	5	75

Niagarahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Payton LeeOH	3	10	2	22	.364	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
18Katelynn RottmanOH	3	8	3	19	.263	0	1	1	10	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
6Sole RancyMB	3	2	2	6	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	2	4
12Karlotta KattaiOH	3	3	2	13	.077	0	0	2	3	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
10Jakayla BrownMB	3	2	0	9	.222	0	0	1	4	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
3Paisley Ka’ahanuiS	3	0	0	4	.000	13	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
8Kadence GoolsbyOH	3	4	0	12	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
11Chloe MorelandOH	3	3	0	12	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
14Noel PerkinsOH	3	0	0	4	.000	13	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Ashley MorelandL/DS	3	0	1	5	-.200	2	0	0	10	2	0	0	0	0
4Leah WhiteS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	10	106	.208	28	2	6	37	5	1	10	6	61

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 KENT · NIAGRA 3

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 5 KENTNIAGRA 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 KENTNIAGRA 2

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 KENTNIAGRA 3

Bars above the line = Niagara leads, below = Kent St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Kent St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	50%7/14
2	82%9/11	36%5/14
3	70%7/10	53%8/15
4	67%6/9	33%3/9
5	50%6/12	57%8/14
6	75%6/8	14%1/7
All	68%43/63	44%32/73

Niagara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%9/19	27%3/11
2	53%8/15	31%4/13
3	75%6/8	20%2/10
4	46%6/13	33%3/9
5	60%6/10	50%6/12
6	75%6/8	25%2/8
All	56%41/73	32%20/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	KENT-NIAGRA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NIAGRA	KENT×3	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Christina Vigil	+0.4
2	2-0	KENT	KENT×3	Kill	Liliana Mechura	set Christina Vigil	+0.5
3	3-0	KENT	KENT×3	Ace	KENT server	aced Team	+0.4
4	3-1	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.3
5	3-2	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Mercedez Brown		+0.5
6	4-2	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Christina Vigil	set Lesley Furuta	+0.4
7	4-3	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.4
8	5-3	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Christina Vigil	+0.4
9	5-4	KENT	NIAGRA×3	Serve err	KENT server		+0.5
10	5-5	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.7
11	5-6	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Macie Moreland		+0.8
12	6-6	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Liliana Mechura	set Lesley Furuta	+0.6
13	7-6	KENT	KENT	Bad set	Karlotta Kattai		+0.7
14	7-7	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Noel Perkins	+0.6
15	8-7	NIAGRA	KENT	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.6
16	8-8	KENT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Mercedez Brown		+0.6
17	8-9	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+0.9
18	9-9	NIAGRA	KENT	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.7
19	9-10	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+0.8
20	10-10	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Vanessa Imoh	set Christina Vigil	+0.7
21	10-11	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Chloe Moreland	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.9
22	11-11	NIAGRA	KENT×3	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Christina Vigil	+0.8
23	12-11	KENT	KENT×3	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Christina Vigil	+0.9
24	13-11	KENT	KENT×3	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai	blk Christina Vigil, Liliana Mechura	+0.8
25	13-12	KENT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Christina Vigil		+0.6
26	14-12	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Liliana Mechura	set Christina Vigil	+0.6
27	14-13	KENT	NIAGRA	Serve err	KENT server		+0.7
28	15-13	NIAGRA	KENT	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.7
29	15-14	KENT	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Jakayla Brown	set Noel Perkins	+0.7
30	15-15	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Ashley Moreland	+1.1
31	15-16	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+1.4
32	16-16	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Christina Vigil	+1.0
33	16-17	KENT	NIAGRA	Bad set	Macie Moreland		+1.2
34	17-17	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Christina Vigil	+1.1
35	18-17	KENT	KENT	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Christina Vigil	+1.3
36	18-18	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+1.1
37	19-18	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Christina Vigil	+1.1
38	19-19	KENT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Mercedez Brown		+1.3
39	20-19	NIAGRA	KENT×5	Bad set	Karlotta Kattai		+1.2
40	21-19	KENT	KENT×5	Attack err	Payton Lee		+1.3
41	22-19	KENT	KENT×5	Serve err	KENT server		+1.0
42	23-19	KENT	KENT×5	Ace	KENT server	aced Ashley Moreland	+0.6
43	24-19	KENT	KENT×5	Kill	Liliana Mechura		+0.2
44	24-20	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
45	24-21	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Bad set	Christina Vigil		+0.2
46	25-21	NIAGRA	KENT	Attack err	Karlotta Kattai		+0.3
Set 2
1	1-0	KENT	KENT×4	Kill	Vanessa Imoh	set Adalynn Ginley	+0.3
2	2-0	KENT	KENT×4	Ace	KENT server	aced Karlotta Kattai	+0.3
3	3-0	KENT	KENT×4	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Christina Vigil	+0.3
4	4-0	KENT	KENT×4	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Payton Lee	+0.2
5	4-1	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.2
6	4-2	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Vanessa Imoh	blk Karlotta Kattai, Sole Rancy	+0.3
7	5-2	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
8	5-3	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Karlotta Kattai	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.2
9	6-3	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
10	6-4	KENT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Mercedez Brown	blk Jakayla Brown	+0.2
11	7-4	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Liliana Mechura	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
12	8-4	KENT	KENT	Kill	Christina Vigil	set Nadia Miller	+0.2
13	8-5	KENT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Macie Moreland		+0.2
14	9-5	NIAGRA	KENT×4	Kill	Liliana Mechura	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
15	10-5	KENT	KENT×4	Bad set	Katelynn Rottman		+0.2
16	11-5	KENT	KENT×4	Ace	KENT server	aced Team	+0.1
17	12-5	KENT	KENT×4	Kill	Macie Moreland	set Christina Vigil	+0.1
18	12-6	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.1
19	13-6	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Christina Vigil	+0.1
20	13-7	KENT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.1
21	13-8	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Macie Moreland		+0.1
22	14-8	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Macie Moreland	set Adalynn Ginley	+0.1
23	14-9	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
24	15-9	NIAGRA	KENT	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.1
25	15-10	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Sole Rancy	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
26	16-10	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Liliana Mechura	set Payton Lee	+0.1
27	17-10	KENT	KENT	Attack err	Sole Rancy	blk Christina Vigil, Adalynn Ginley	+0.1
28	17-11	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
29	17-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Lesley Furuta	+0.1
30	18-12	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Karlotta Kattai	+0.1
31	19-12	KENT	KENT	Kill	Liliana Mechura	set Noel Perkins	+0.1
32	19-13	KENT	NIAGRA	Serve err	KENT server		+0.0
33	19-14	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Christina Vigil	+0.1
34	20-14	NIAGRA	KENT	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.1
35	20-15	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+0.1
36	20-16	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Adalynn Ginley		+0.2
37	21-16	NIAGRA	KENT	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.2
38	21-17	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.1
39	22-17	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Vanessa Imoh	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
40	23-17	KENT	KENT	Attack err	Sole Rancy	blk Adalynn Ginley	+0.1
41	23-18	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
42	23-19	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee		+0.1
43	24-19	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Christina Vigil	+0.1
44	24-20	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
45	25-20	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Vanessa Imoh	set Liliana Mechura	+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Vanessa Imoh	blk Katelynn Rottman, Sole Rancy	+0.2
2	1-1	NIAGRA	KENT×4	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.1
3	2-1	KENT	KENT×4	Kill	Vanessa Imoh	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
4	3-1	KENT	KENT×4	Attack err	Payton Lee	blk Liliana Mechura, Vanessa Imoh	+0.1
5	4-1	KENT	KENT×4	Bad set	Paisley Ka’ahanui		+0.1
6	4-2	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
7	4-3	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Ace	NIAGRA server	aced Team	+0.2
8	5-3	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Lesley Furuta	+0.1
9	5-4	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
10	5-5	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Liliana Mechura		+0.2
11	6-5	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Liliana Mechura	set Christina Vigil	+0.1
12	6-6	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Chloe Moreland	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.2
13	7-6	NIAGRA	KENT×3	Kill	Macie Moreland	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
14	8-6	KENT	KENT×3	Bad set	Ashley Moreland		+0.2
15	9-6	KENT	KENT×3	Kill	Christina Vigil	set Lesley Furuta	+0.1
16	9-7	KENT	NIAGRA×3	Kill	Jakayla Brown	set Noel Perkins	+0.1
17	9-8	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Attack err	Adalynn Ginley	blk Jakayla Brown, Katelynn Rottman	+0.2
18	9-9	NIAGRA	NIAGRA×3	Bad set	Christina Vigil		+0.2
19	10-9	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Macie Moreland	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
20	11-9	KENT	KENT	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Vanessa Imoh	+0.2
21	11-10	KENT	NIAGRA	Serve err	KENT server		+0.2
22	12-10	NIAGRA	KENT	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman	blk Christina Vigil, Adalynn Ginley	+0.2
23	12-11	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Sole Rancy	set Noel Perkins	+0.2
24	12-12	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Vanessa Imoh	blk Katelynn Rottman, Sole Rancy	+0.3
25	13-12	NIAGRA	KENT	Attack err	Ashley Moreland		+0.2
26	13-13	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Ashley Moreland	+0.2
27	14-13	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
28	15-13	KENT	KENT	Ace	KENT server	aced Ashley Moreland	+0.2
29	15-14	KENT	NIAGRA	Attack err	Mercedez Brown	blk Payton Lee, Sole Rancy	+0.2
30	16-14	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Mercedez Brown	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
31	17-14	KENT	KENT	Kill	Macie Moreland	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
32	17-15	KENT	NIAGRA	Bad set	Liliana Mechura		+0.2
33	18-15	NIAGRA	KENT×3	Kill	Macie Moreland	set Christina Vigil	+0.2
34	19-15	KENT	KENT×3	Bad set	Noel Perkins		+0.2
35	20-15	KENT	KENT×3	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Christina Vigil	+0.1
36	20-16	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Chloe Moreland	set Noel Perkins	+0.1
37	20-17	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Macie Moreland		+0.1
38	21-17	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Christina Vigil	+0.1
39	21-18	KENT	NIAGRA	Serve err	KENT server		+0.1
40	22-18	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Christina Vigil	+0.1
41	23-18	KENT	KENT	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.1
42	23-19	KENT	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
43	24-19	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Adalynn Ginley	set Christina Vigil	+0.1
44	24-20	KENT	NIAGRA	Serve err	KENT server		+0.0
45	25-20	NIAGRA	KENT	Kill	Vanessa Imoh	set Christina Vigil	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Kent St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.