FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayCAA

3:0

HomeMEAC

Towson def. Morgan St. 3–0

(25-17, 25-21, 25-10)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
TOWSON	25	25	25	3
MORGAN	17	21	10	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MORGAN above 50 · TOWSON below

Biggest swing: 0.9% to Morgan St. — set 2, TOWSON 10-14 MORGAN. Morgan St. ace on Taylor Pagan. MORGAN win probability 5% → 5%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TOWSON 95.8%4.2% MORGAN

Towson wins

3-0

57.9%

3-1

28.9%

3-2

9.0%

Morgan St. wins

3-0

0.5%

3-1

1.2%

3-2

2.6%

TOWSON break %: 49.0% vs this opp
MORGAN break %: 35.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
MORGAN serverAce+0.9%
Morgan St. ace on Taylor Pagan
Set 2 · TOWSON 10-14 MORGAN · MORGAN 5% → 5%
02
Tyrah WeemsAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Tyrah Weems
Set 2 · TOWSON 19-18 MORGAN · TOWSON 97% → 98%
03
Clara VorelKill+0.8%
Kill by Clara Vorel (set by Peyton Meyer)
Set 2 · TOWSON 16-16 MORGAN · TOWSON 96% → 97%
04
Jada WilliamsKill+0.8%
Kill by Jada Williams (set by Isabelle Brown)
Set 2 · TOWSON 9-12 MORGAN · MORGAN 4% → 4%
05
Taylor PaganAttack error+0.7%
Attack error by Taylor Pagan
Set 2 · TOWSON 17-18 MORGAN · MORGAN 3% → 4%
06
TOWSON serverAce+0.7%
Towson ace on Jada Williams
Set 2 · TOWSON 13-14 MORGAN · TOWSON 96% → 96%
07
Michaela PanekovaAttack error+0.7%
Attack error by Michaela Panekova
Set 2 · TOWSON 12-14 MORGAN · TOWSON 95% → 96%
08
Tyrah WeemsAttack error+0.7%
Tyrah Weems stuffed by Evi Priniotaki & Clara Vorel
Set 2 · TOWSON 20-18 MORGAN · TOWSON 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Towsonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Anna RiceOH	3	11	1	16	.625	0	5	3	2	0	0	2	1	17
6Malinah Purcell-TelefoniOPP	3	10	2	15	.533	0	0	3	3	1	2	1	2.5	12.5
16Taylor PaganOH	3	9	3	20	.300	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	9
23Clara VorelMB	3	4	1	5	.600	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	6
22Kaitlyn MoranS	3	1	1	3	.000	21	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
14Evi PriniotakiOH	2	3	1	10	.200	1	1	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Ava DryeOPP	3	3	0	5	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
2Megan PlattL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	11	1	0	0	0	1
11Peyton MeyerS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
3Natalia PebenitoL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
18Destini PickettOH	1	2	0	6	.333	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
8Addison LeberOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Bjanka StojanovicOPP	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	9	80	.425	41	7	8	35	4	3	6	6	75

Morgan St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Jada WilliamsMB	3	10	6	30	.133	0	1	0	5	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
9Michaela PanekovaOH	3	8	6	25	.080	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	8
11Aubrey WilsonMB	3	3	1	7	.286	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
8Tre'Niya MillerMB	3	2	2	6	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
4Isabelle BrownS	3	1	1	4	.000	21	2	4	6	0	0	0	0	3
21Kira DevriezeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
14Tyrah WeemsMB	3	2	3	8	-.125	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
5Bailey SwintonL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
6Tameary WardlawL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
10Nathalia MoraisOH	2	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		26	20	84	.071	26	4	5	23	7	1	2	2	48

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 TOWSON · MORGAN 4

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 5 TOWSONMORGAN 2

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 4 TOWSONMORGAN 4

Set 3

25-10

Longest run 7 TOWSONMORGAN 3

Bars above the line = Morgan St. leads, below = Towson leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Towson

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	56%9/16
2	67%8/12	58%11/19
3	67%6/9	45%5/11
4	100%5/5	38%3/8
5	83%5/6	62%8/13
6	63%5/8	29%2/7
All	76%37/49	51%38/74

Morgan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	25%2/8
2	37%7/19	20%2/10
3	55%6/11	42%5/12
4	83%5/6	0%0/6
5	42%5/12	0%0/5
6	56%5/9	38%3/8
All	49%36/74	24%12/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	TOWSON-MORGAN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.5
2	1-1	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Megan Platt	+0.4
3	1-2	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.5
4	2-2	MORGAN	TOWSON×3	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.4
5	3-2	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Peyton Meyer	+0.5
6	4-2	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.4
7	4-3	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.4
8	5-3	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Peyton Meyer	+0.3
9	5-4	TOWSON	MORGAN	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.4
10	6-4	MORGAN	TOWSON	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.3
11	7-4	TOWSON	TOWSON	Attack err	Nathalia Morais	blk Anna Rice, Clara Vorel	+0.4
12	7-5	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.3
13	8-5	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.3
14	8-6	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+0.3
15	8-7	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Bailey Swinton	+0.5
16	9-7	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.4
17	9-8	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+0.4
18	10-8	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Evi Priniotaki	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.4
19	10-9	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+0.5
20	11-9	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Peyton Meyer	+0.4
21	11-10	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.5
22	12-10	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Peyton Meyer	+0.5
23	12-11	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.5
24	13-11	MORGAN	TOWSON×5	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Peyton Meyer	+0.5
25	14-11	TOWSON	TOWSON×5	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Megan Platt	+0.5
26	15-11	TOWSON	TOWSON×5	Attack err	Michaela Panekova	blk Clara Vorel	+0.4
27	16-11	TOWSON	TOWSON×5	Attack err	Jada Williams		+0.3
28	17-11	TOWSON	TOWSON×5	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.2
29	17-12	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.1
30	17-13	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Tyrah Weems	+0.2
31	18-13	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Evi Priniotaki	+0.2
32	18-14	TOWSON	MORGAN	Attack err	Clara Vorel		+0.2
33	19-14	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.2
34	20-14	TOWSON	TOWSON	Attack err	Jada Williams		+0.2
35	20-15	TOWSON	MORGAN	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.1
36	21-15	MORGAN	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Jada Williams	blk Anna Rice, Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	+0.1
37	22-15	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.1
38	23-15	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
39	23-16	TOWSON	MORGAN	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.0
40	24-16	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Peyton Meyer	+0.0
41	24-17	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.0
42	25-17	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Peyton Meyer	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.2
2	1-1	TOWSON	MORGAN	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.3
3	2-1	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Evi Priniotaki	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.2
4	2-2	TOWSON	MORGAN×4	Kill	Jada Williams	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.3
5	2-3	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Evi Priniotaki	blk Jada Williams, Tre'Niya Miller	+0.4
6	2-4	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Isabelle Brown	+0.5
7	2-5	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Taylor Pagan	+0.6
8	3-5	MORGAN	TOWSON×4	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.4
9	4-5	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Attack err	Michaela Panekova	blk Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	+0.5
10	5-5	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Peyton Meyer	+0.4
11	6-5	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Michaela Panekova	+0.4
12	6-6	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.3
13	7-6	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Ava Drye	set Peyton Meyer	+0.3
14	7-7	TOWSON	MORGAN	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.3
15	8-7	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Ava Drye	set Peyton Meyer	+0.3
16	8-8	TOWSON	MORGAN×3	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Isabelle Brown	+0.3
17	8-9	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Taylor Pagan		+0.6
18	8-10	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Megan Platt	+0.7
19	9-10	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.4
20	9-11	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+0.5
21	9-12	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.8
22	10-12	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Evi Priniotaki	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.5
23	10-13	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.6
24	10-14	MORGAN	MORGAN	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Taylor Pagan	+0.9
25	11-14	MORGAN	TOWSON×3	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.5
26	12-14	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.7
27	13-14	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Jada Williams	+0.7
28	13-15	TOWSON	MORGAN	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.7
29	14-15	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Peyton Meyer	+0.5
30	14-16	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.7
31	15-16	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Peyton Meyer	+0.6
32	16-16	TOWSON	TOWSON	Kill	Clara Vorel	set Peyton Meyer	+0.8
33	16-17	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.7
34	17-17	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Peyton Meyer	+0.6
35	17-18	TOWSON	MORGAN	Attack err	Taylor Pagan		+0.7
36	18-18	MORGAN	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Isabelle Brown		+0.6
37	19-18	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Tyrah Weems		+0.8
38	20-18	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Tyrah Weems	blk Evi Priniotaki, Clara Vorel	+0.7
39	20-19	TOWSON	MORGAN	Attack err	Anna Rice		+0.5
40	21-19	MORGAN	TOWSON×3	Kill	Clara Vorel	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.5
41	22-19	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.5
42	23-19	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Kira Devrieze	+0.3
43	23-20	TOWSON	MORGAN	Bad set	Taylor Pagan		+0.1
44	23-21	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	blk Tre'Niya Miller	+0.3
45	24-21	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Kaitlyn Moran		+0.4
46	25-21	TOWSON	TOWSON	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Kira Devrieze	+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.1
2	2-0	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Aubrey Wilson		+0.1
3	3-0	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Jada Williams	blk Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	+0.1
4	3-1	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.1
5	4-1	MORGAN	TOWSON×7	Kill	Destini Pickett	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.1
6	5-1	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Tameary Wardlaw	+0.1
7	6-1	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Nathalia Morais	+0.1
8	7-1	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Attack err	Tre'Niya Miller		+0.0
9	8-1	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
10	9-1	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Attack err	Tre'Niya Miller		+0.0
11	10-1	TOWSON	TOWSON×7	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.0
12	10-2	TOWSON	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Kaitlyn Moran		+0.0
13	10-3	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	+0.0
14	10-4	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni		+0.0
15	11-4	MORGAN	TOWSON	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.0
16	11-5	TOWSON	MORGAN	Attack err	Taylor Pagan		+0.0
17	12-5	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Ava Drye	set Peyton Meyer	+0.0
18	12-6	TOWSON	MORGAN	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.0
19	13-6	MORGAN	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Tyrah Weems		+0.0
20	14-6	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
21	15-6	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Clara Vorel		+0.0
22	15-7	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.0
23	16-7	MORGAN	TOWSON×3	Kill	Taylor Pagan	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
24	17-7	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Kill	Destini Pickett	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
25	18-7	TOWSON	TOWSON×3	Attack err	Jada Williams		+0.0
26	18-8	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
27	19-8	MORGAN	TOWSON×4	Kill	Clara Vorel	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
28	20-8	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Attack err	Jada Williams		+0.0
29	21-8	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Kill	Anna Rice	set Natalia Pebenito	+0.0
30	22-8	TOWSON	TOWSON×4	Kill	Anna Rice	set Kaitlyn Moran	+0.0
31	22-9	TOWSON	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
32	23-9	MORGAN	TOWSON	Kill	Malinah Purcell-Telefoni	set Clara Vorel	+0.0
33	24-9	TOWSON	TOWSON	Ace	TOWSON server	aced Tyrah Weems	+0.0
34	24-10	TOWSON	MORGAN	Serve err	TOWSON server		+0.0
35	25-10	MORGAN	TOWSON	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Towson first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.