Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UTSA def. Charlotte 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: UTSA 83.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 5:07 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UTSA won at Charlotte 3-1 (25-23, 21-25, 25-20, 25-19) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. UTSA's Isabella Arroyave led with 16 kills, and Alyssa Manitzas added 12 digs.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
UTSA252125253
CHAR232520191

Match story · written from the play-by-play

UTSA broke it open with a 7–0 run in the fourth set.

Win probability never moved more than 5.7 points on one rally; Charlotte topped out at 27% in Set 3. UTSA went in as RallyIQ's 83% pick.

UTSACharlotte
  • Hitting+.100
    .250.150

    54 kills, 18 errors vs 53 kills, 31 errors.

  • Longest run+3
    74

    Down 12–15 in the fourth set, UTSA scored 7 straight to lead 19–15. Final score of the set: 25–19.

Charlotte above 50UTSA belowMax swing 5.7%

UTSACharlotte

Aces
UTSA 3·Charlotte 2
Serve err
UTSA 10·Charlotte 6
Blocks
UTSA 9·Charlotte 90 BS · 18 BA vs 1 BS · 16 BA
Digs
UTSA 52·Charlotte 62

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Charlotte above 50 · UTSA below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.7% UTSArally 183 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.7% to UTSA — set 1, UTSA 25-23 CHAR. Attack error by Sofia Locadia. CHAR win probability 15% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UTSA 74.6%25.4% CHAR

UTSA wins

3-0
26.7%
3-1
28.5%
3-2
19.4%

Charlotte wins

3-0
4.5%
3-1
8.7%
3-2
12.2%
UTSA break %
44.3% vs this opp
CHAR break %
39.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sofia LocadiaAttack error+5.7%

    Attack error by Sofia Locadia

    Set 1 · UTSA 25-23 CHAR · UTSA 85% → 91%

  2. 02
    Sydney BryantAttack error+5.2%

    Attack error by Sydney Bryant

    Set 3 · UTSA 19-19 CHAR · CHAR 21% → 26%

  3. 03
    Sydney BryantAttack error+5.1%

    Attack error by Sydney Bryant

    Set 1 · UTSA 23-23 CHAR · CHAR 14% → 19%

  4. 04

    Kill by Caroline Tredwell (set by Milena Lopez)

    Set 3 · UTSA 21-19 CHAR · UTSA 78% → 83%

  5. 05
    Sydney BryantKill+4.8%

    Kill by Sydney Bryant (set by Valeria Ortiz)

    Set 1 · UTSA 24-23 CHAR · UTSA 81% → 85%

  6. 06

    Kill by Caroline Tredwell (set by Megan Hawkins)

    Set 3 · UTSA 20-19 CHAR · UTSA 74% → 78%

  7. 07
    Cassidy FlakesAttack error+3.8%

    Attack error by Cassidy Flakes

    Set 3 · UTSA 22-19 CHAR · UTSA 83% → 86%

  8. 08

    Kill by Sara Marinkovic (set by Megan Hawkins)

    Set 3 · UTSA 18-17 CHAR · CHAR 18% → 21%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UTSAaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416433.3640218102119
415543.23300100031.516.5
47020.350101300429
4419.33300010010.54.5
4115.00023121000002
1114.00010000010.51.5
46317.17600010031.57.5
4013-.3331802500000
4000–6021200000
3329.111000100425
3000–000710000
21011.000001400001
Team totals5418144.25049310522018996
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4141035.11411153031.516.5
413225.4401024002114
410624.1670014016414
46428.071101900217
45210.300000000216
4002.00028101000001
45720-.10000020010.55.5
4001.0007001900000
4001.0001300200000
4000–201500000
4000–000100000
1001.000000100000
Team totals5331147.1505326623116987

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 UTSA · CHAR 4

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 UTSACHAR 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 UTSACHAR 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 UTSACHAR 4

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 7 UTSACHAR 3

Bars above the line = Charlotte leads, below = UTSA leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UTSA

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
47%8/17
2
77%10/13
38%6/16
3
60%9/15
44%7/16
4
62%8/13
47%8/17
5
62%8/13
50%8/16
6
50%8/16
38%5/13
All
61%54/88
44%42/95

Charlotte

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
33%5/15
2
60%9/15
23%3/13
3
75%9/12
40%6/15
4
45%9/20
25%3/12
5
57%8/14
53%9/17
6
47%8/17
50%8/16
All
56%53/95
39%34/88

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

183 rallies

#UTSA-CHARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1CHARCHARKillCassidy Flakesset Harper Hall+1.7
20-2CHARCHARBlockedIsabella Arroyaveblk Jovana Antic, Sofia Locadia+1.9
31-2CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Valeria Ortiz+1.2
42-2UTSAUTSAKillBrooke Elliott+1.7
52-3UTSACHARKillJovana Anticset Harper Hall+1.3
63-3CHARUTSA×3Attack errSara Marinkovic+1.2
74-3UTSAUTSA×3KillIsabella Arroyaveset Brooke Elliott+1.6
85-3UTSAUTSA×3Attack errSofia Locadia+1.5
95-4UTSACHARServe errUTSA+1.1
106-4CHARUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+1.1
117-4UTSAUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Megan Hawkins+1.3
127-5UTSACHARServe errUTSA+1.0
138-5CHARUTSAServe errCharlotte+1.0
148-6UTSACHAR×4KillSara Marinkovicset Harper Hall+1.0
158-7CHARCHAR×4Bad setMegan Hawkins+1.6
168-8CHARCHAR×4BlockedAlly Tribeblk Sara Marinkovic, Cassidy Flakes+1.9
178-9CHARCHAR×4AceCharlotteaced Isabella Arroyave+2.2
189-9CHARUTSABad setJovana Antic+1.5
199-10UTSACHAR×3KillSara Marinkovicset Harper Hall+1.7
209-11CHARCHAR×3Attack errSydney Bryant+2.5
219-12CHARCHAR×3KillGia McGrewset Sara Marinkovic+2.5
2210-12CHARUTSA×4Attack errSara Marinkovic+1.6
2311-12UTSAUTSA×4Attack errGia McGrew+2.3
2412-12UTSAUTSA×4AceUTSAaced Sara Marinkovic+2.3
2513-12UTSAUTSA×4KillMakinsey Jonesset Valeria Ortiz+2.2
2613-13UTSACHARKillGia McGrewset Harper Hall+1.7
2714-13CHARUTSAAttack errSofia Locadia+1.7
2814-14UTSACHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+1.8
2915-14CHARUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+1.7
3016-14UTSAUTSABad setMilena Lopez+2.2
3116-15UTSACHARKillGia McGrewset Milena Lopez+1.6
3216-16CHARCHARBlockedBrooke Elliottblk Sara Marinkovic, Sofia Locadia+2.7
3317-16CHARUTSAKillGiada Obregon+2.0
3417-17UTSACHARKillSara Marinkovicset Milena Lopez+2.1
3518-17CHARUTSAKillCaroline Tredwellset Megan Hawkins+2.1
3619-17UTSAUTSAAceUTSAaced Sara Marinkovic+2.7
3719-18UTSACHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Milena Lopez+1.8
3819-19CHARCHARKillSara Marinkovicset Harper Hall+3.3
3920-19CHARUTSA×3Attack errSara Marinkovic+2.5
4021-19UTSAUTSA×3Attack errSara Marinkovic+3.1
4122-19UTSAUTSA×3Attack errSara Marinkovic+2.4
4222-20UTSACHARKillSara Marinkovicset Erin Lehman+1.2
4322-21CHARCHARKillJovana Anticset Chloe Maughan+2.8
4423-21CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+2.8
4523-22UTSACHARAttack errSydney Bryant+2.1
4623-23CHARCHARAttack errSydney Bryant+5.1
4724-23CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Valeria Ortiz+4.8
4825-23UTSAUTSAAttack errSofia Locadia+5.7
Set 2
10-1UTSACHARKillJovana Anticset Harper Hall+0.9
21-1CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Valeria Ortiz+0.8
31-2UTSACHARServe errUTSA+0.9
42-2CHARUTSAKillMakinsey Jonesset Valeria Ortiz+0.9
52-3UTSACHARKillJovana Anticset Chloe Maughan+1.0
62-4CHARCHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+1.4
73-4CHARUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+0.9
84-4UTSAUTSAKillCaroline Tredwellset Megan Hawkins+1.3
94-5UTSACHARServe errUTSA+1.0
104-6CHARCHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+1.5
115-6CHARUTSA×3KillIsabella Arroyaveset Megan Hawkins+1.0
126-6UTSAUTSA×3KillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+1.4
137-6UTSAUTSA×3Attack errSara Marinkovic+1.3
147-7UTSACHARBlockedSydney Bryantblk Sofia Locadia, Mariam Mushkudiani+1.0
158-7CHARUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Megan Hawkins+0.9
168-8UTSACHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Milena Lopez+1.0
179-8CHARUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Chloe Maughan+1.0
189-9UTSACHARKillJovana Anticset Harper Hall+1.1
199-10CHARCHARKillJovana Anticset Harper Hall+1.6
2010-10CHARUTSAKillLedisi Kpeaset Valeria Ortiz+1.1
2110-11UTSACHARKillCassidy Flakesset Harper Hall+1.3
2210-12CHARCHARKillJovana Anticset Chloe Maughan+1.9
2311-12CHARUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+1.2
2411-13UTSACHARKillJovana Anticset Harper Hall+1.4
2512-13CHARUTSAAttack errGia McGrew+1.2
2612-14UTSACHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Milena Lopez+1.5
2712-15CHARCHARAttack errAlly Tribe+2.1
2813-15CHARUTSAAttack errMariam Mushkudiani+1.2
2914-15UTSAUTSAAttack errMariam Mushkudiani+1.9
3014-16UTSACHARKillSofia Locadiaset Milena Lopez+1.6
3114-17CHARCHARKillSara Marinkovicset Harper Hall+2.3
3215-17CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+1.3
3315-18UTSACHARServe errUTSA+1.7
3416-18CHARUTSAKillLedisi Kpeaset Megan Hawkins+1.3
3516-19UTSACHARKillSara Marinkovicset Harper Hall+1.8
3617-19CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Valeria Ortiz+1.4
3717-20UTSACHARServe errUTSA+1.9
3818-20CHARUTSA×3KillMakinsey Jonesset Valeria Ortiz+1.4
3919-20UTSAUTSA×3BlockedJovana Anticblk Isabella Arroyave, Caroline Tredwell+2.4
4020-20UTSAUTSA×3BlockedJovana Anticblk Isabella Arroyave, Caroline Tredwell+2.8
4120-21UTSACHARKillGia McGrewset Jovana Antic+2.4
4220-22CHARCHARAttack errIsabella Arroyave+3.5
4321-22CHARUTSAServe errCharlotte+1.9
4421-23UTSACHAR×3KillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+3.0
4521-24CHARCHAR×3KillSara Marinkovicset Gia McGrew+3.2
4621-25CHARCHAR×3KillSara Marinkovicset Harper Hall+1.4
Set 3
11-0CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Valeria Ortiz+1.7
22-0UTSAUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Alyssa Manitzas+2.2
32-1UTSACHARServe errUTSA+1.6
43-1CHARUTSAKillMakinsey Jonesset Valeria Ortiz+1.6
53-2UTSACHARKillCassidy Flakesset Harper Hall+1.7
63-3CHARCHARAceCharlotteaced Sydney Black+2.6
74-3CHARUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+1.8
84-4UTSACHARKillGia McGrewset Harper Hall+2.0
95-4CHARUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Alyssa Manitzas+1.9
105-5UTSACHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+2.0
116-5CHARUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Megan Hawkins+1.9
126-6UTSACHARBad setSydney Bryant+2.1
136-7CHARCHARAttack errMegan Hawkins+3.2
147-7CHARUTSA×4KillLedisi Kpeaset Megan Hawkins+2.2
158-7UTSAUTSA×4BlockedMariam Mushkudianiblk Caroline Tredwell, Sydney Bryant+2.9
169-7UTSAUTSA×4Attack errSofia Locadia+2.7
1710-7UTSAUTSA×4Attack errSara Marinkovic+2.3
1810-8UTSACHARKillSofia Locadiaset Milena Lopez+1.6
1911-8CHARUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Megan Hawkins+1.7
2011-9UTSACHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Milena Lopez+1.7
2112-9CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Alyssa Manitzas+1.8
2212-10UTSACHARKillSara Marinkovicset Erin Lehman+1.7
2312-11CHARCHARKillJovana Anticset Chloe Maughan+2.9
2413-11CHARUTSAAttack errCassidy Flakes+2.2
2513-12UTSACHARKillJovana Anticset Harper Hall+2.2
2614-12CHARUTSA×4KillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+2.3
2715-12UTSAUTSA×4Attack errSofia Locadia+2.8
2816-12UTSAUTSA×4KillIsabella Arroyaveset Megan Hawkins+2.2
2917-12UTSAUTSA×4BlockedGia McGrewblk Ledisi Kpea, Ally Tribe+1.6
3017-13UTSACHARKillJovana Anticset Harper Hall+0.9
3118-13CHARUTSAKillAlly Tribeset Alyssa Manitzas+1.1
3218-14UTSACHAR×4KillSofia Locadiaset Milena Lopez+0.9
3318-15CHARCHAR×4Attack errLedisi Kpea+1.8
3418-16CHARCHAR×4BlockedAlly Tribeblk Sofia Locadia, Sara Marinkovic+2.7
3518-17CHARCHAR×4KillSara Marinkovicset Megan Hawkins+3.7
3619-17CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+3.0
3719-18UTSACHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Milena Lopez+2.9
3819-19CHARCHARAttack errSydney Bryant+5.2
3920-19CHARUTSA×3KillCaroline Tredwellset Megan Hawkins+4.0
4021-19UTSAUTSA×3KillCaroline Tredwellset Milena Lopez+5.0
4122-19UTSAUTSA×3Attack errCassidy Flakes+3.8
4222-20UTSACHARServe errUTSA+1.9
4323-20CHARUTSA×3KillCaroline Tredwellset Valeria Ortiz+2.8
4424-20UTSAUTSA×3KillIsabella Arroyaveset Alyssa Manitzas+2.0
4525-20UTSAUTSA×3KillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+0.5
Set 4
10-1UTSACHAR×3Bad setValeria Ortiz+1.6
20-2CHARCHAR×3KillCassidy Flakesset Harper Hall+2.3
30-3CHARCHAR×3BlockedIsabella Arroyaveblk Jovana Antic, Cassidy Flakes+2.4
41-3CHARUTSAKillValeria Ortizset Alyssa Manitzas+1.5
51-4UTSACHARKillJovana Anticset Harper Hall+1.8
61-5CHARCHARBlockedMakinsey Jonesblk Sofia Locadia, Gia McGrew+2.5
72-5CHARUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+1.6
82-6UTSACHARKillGia McGrewset Chloe Maughan+1.9
93-6CHARUTSAServe errCharlotte+1.6
103-7UTSACHARServe errUTSA+2.0
114-7CHARUTSAServe errCharlotte+1.6
125-7UTSAUTSAAttack errSara Marinkovic+2.4
135-8UTSACHARKillSofia Locadiaset Milena Lopez+2.1
146-8CHARUTSA×3KillCaroline Tredwellset Megan Hawkins+1.7
157-8UTSAUTSA×3BlockedMariam Mushkudianiblk Sydney Bryant, Caroline Tredwell+2.5
168-8UTSAUTSA×3Attack errMariam Mushkudiani+2.5
178-9UTSACHARKillSara Marinkovicset Milena Lopez+2.0
188-10CHARCHARKillJovana Anticset Chloe Maughan+2.9
199-10CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Valeria Ortiz+1.9
209-11UTSACHARKillSara Marinkovicset Harper Hall+2.2
2110-11CHARUTSAServe errCharlotte+2.0
2211-11UTSAUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Caroline Tredwell+2.8
2311-12UTSACHARKillCassidy Flakesset Harper Hall+2.2
2411-13CHARCHARBlockedValeria Ortizblk Sofia Locadia, Gia McGrew+3.3
2512-13CHARUTSAKillIsabella Arroyaveset Valeria Ortiz+2.1
2612-14UTSACHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+2.5
2712-15CHARCHARAttack errIsabella Arroyave+3.5
2813-15CHARUTSA×7KillIsabella Arroyaveset Megan Hawkins+2.1
2914-15UTSAUTSA×7BlockedMariam Mushkudianiblk Sydney Bryant, Ledisi Kpea+3.2
3015-15UTSAUTSA×7AceUTSAaced Sara Marinkovic+3.3
3116-15UTSAUTSA×7BlockedGia McGrewblk Ally Tribe, Ledisi Kpea+3.2
3217-15UTSAUTSA×7BlockedSofia Locadiablk Ledisi Kpea, Ally Tribe+2.9
3318-15UTSAUTSA×7Attack errMariam Mushkudiani+2.4
3419-15UTSAUTSA×7KillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+1.8
3519-16UTSACHARAttack errMegan Hawkins+1.0
3619-17CHARCHARKillSara Marinkovicset Chloe Maughan+2.1
3720-17CHARUTSAServe errCharlotte+1.9
3820-18UTSACHARServe errUTSA+1.5
3921-18CHARUTSAKillSydney Bryantset Megan Hawkins+2.0
4022-18UTSAUTSAAttack errSara Marinkovic+1.8
4122-19UTSACHARBad setValeria Ortiz+0.8
4223-19CHARUTSA×3KillSydney Bryantset Valeria Ortiz+1.2
4324-19UTSAUTSA×3KillCaroline Tredwellset Valeria Ortiz+0.7
4425-19UTSAUTSA×3Attack errSara Marinkovic+0.2

Score shown after each rally, UTSA first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).