FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayBIG-SKY

3:0

HomeNEC

Southern Utah def. Chicago St. 3–0

(25-11, 25-22, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
S UTAH	25	25	25	3
CHI ST	11	22	22	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CHI ST above 50 · S UTAH below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Chicago St. — set 2, S UTAH 10-11 CHI ST. Attack error by Audrey Atwood. CHI ST win probability 5% → 6%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

S UTAH 90.5%9.5% CHI ST

Southern Utah wins

3-0

45.3%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

13.7%

Chicago St. wins

3-0

1.3%

3-1

2.9%

3-2

5.4%

S UTAH break %: 51.1% vs this opp
CHI ST break %: 41.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Audrey AtwoodAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Audrey Atwood
Set 2 · S UTAH 10-11 CHI ST · CHI ST 5% → 6%
02
CHI ST serverAce+1.0%
Chicago St. ace on Kaitlyn Barnes
Set 1 · S UTAH 2-2 CHI ST · CHI ST 9% → 10%
03
Emeli Muagututi'aBad set+1.0%
Bad set by Emeli Muagututi'a
Set 3 · S UTAH 24-22 CHI ST · S UTAH 99% → 100%
04
Natalie MooreKill+1.0%
Kill by Natalie Moore (set by Celeste Uruena Jensen)
Set 3 · S UTAH 23-22 CHI ST · S UTAH 98% → 99%
05
S UTAH serverAce+0.9%
Southern Utah ace on Team
Set 2 · S UTAH 12-11 CHI ST · S UTAH 94% → 95%
06
Natalie MooreAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Natalie Moore
Set 2 · S UTAH 10-10 CHI ST · CHI ST 5% → 5%
07
Maya BanksAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Maya Banks
Set 2 · S UTAH 6-7 CHI ST · CHI ST 5% → 6%
08
Audrey AtwoodKill+0.9%
Kill by Audrey Atwood (set by Celeste Uruena Jensen)
Set 2 · S UTAH 25-22 CHI ST · S UTAH 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern Utahaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Natalie MooreMB	3	11	2	15	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11
2Audrey AtwoodOH	3	7	4	24	.125	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	8
4Maya BanksOPP	3	5	5	13	.000	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	2	7
6Emilia LindenOPP	3	6	1	11	.455	0	0	3	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
17Celeste Uruena JensenS	3	1	2	4	-.250	17	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
14Kaitlyn BarnesL/DS	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	1
1Ryen SmithOPP	3	6	2	12	.333	1	2	3	2	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
5Kaitlyn HoelkerOH	3	6	1	12	.417	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6
19Talea BerryS	3	0	0	0	–	19	6	0	3	0	0	0	0	6
10Zorana StankovskaL/DS	3	1	1	2	.000	3	2	1	13	0	0	0	0	3
16Amanda MendozaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	18	96	.271	41	11	10	37	2	2	2	3	75

Chicago St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Nayella GeorgeOH	3	7	5	20	.100	0	1	1	8	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
8Kristine BakhadS	3	5	0	16	.313	7	0	0	5	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
2Camryn McCollumOH	3	4	4	18	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
3Graci LittlejohnMB	3	3	3	10	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	4
7Reece MazzierL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	5	1	0	0	0	1
5Emeli Muagututi'aS	3	0	0	0	–	11	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Nina MitchellOH	3	3	2	13	.077	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
1Rayon ThigpenMB	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	1
12Skye RileyOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	6	4	0	0	0	0
6Tenese ButtryDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		22	14	79	.101	18	2	3	27	11	3	4	5	55

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 S UTAH · CHI ST 4

Set 1

25-11

Longest run 7 S UTAHCHI ST 2

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 6 S UTAHCHI ST 3

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 4 S UTAHCHI ST 4

Bars above the line = Chicago St. leads, below = Southern Utah leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern Utah

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	30%3/10
2	67%8/12	20%2/10
3	100%6/6	71%15/21
4	67%6/9	33%3/9
5	71%5/7	62%8/13
6	63%5/8	55%6/11
All	68%38/56	50%37/74

Chicago St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	25%2/8
2	64%7/11	50%8/16
3	35%6/17	0%0/7
4	67%6/9	0%0/6
5	28%5/18	33%3/9
6	83%5/6	50%5/10
All	50%37/74	32%18/56

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	S UTAH-CHI ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	S UTAH	S UTAH	Kill	Audrey Atwood	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.9
2	2-0	S UTAH	S UTAH	Kill	Maya Banks	set Zorana Stankovska	+0.8
3	2-1	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.7
4	2-2	CHI ST	CHI ST	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Kaitlyn Barnes	+1.0
5	3-2	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Maya Banks	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.8
6	3-3	S UTAH	CHI ST	Attack err	Celeste Uruena Jensen		+0.9
7	4-3	CHI ST	S UTAH×4	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.8
8	5-3	S UTAH	S UTAH×4	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Team	+0.9
9	6-3	S UTAH	S UTAH×4	Bad set	Nayella George		+0.8
10	7-3	S UTAH	S UTAH×4	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.6
11	7-4	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.5
12	8-4	CHI ST	S UTAH×3	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.6
13	9-4	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.5
14	10-4	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Kill	Ryen Smith	set Zorana Stankovska	+0.4
15	10-5	S UTAH	CHI ST	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.3
16	11-5	CHI ST	S UTAH×7	Kill	Kaitlyn Hoelker	set Talea Berry	+0.4
17	12-5	S UTAH	S UTAH×7	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.3
18	13-5	S UTAH	S UTAH×7	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.2
19	14-5	S UTAH	S UTAH×7	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
20	15-5	S UTAH	S UTAH×7	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Reece Mazzier	+0.1
21	16-5	S UTAH	S UTAH×7	Attack err	Nayella George	blk Emilia Linden, Ryen Smith	+0.1
22	17-5	S UTAH	S UTAH×7	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.0
23	17-6	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
24	18-6	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Ryen Smith	set Talea Berry	+0.0
25	18-7	S UTAH	CHI ST	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.0
26	19-7	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Emilia Linden	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.0
27	20-7	S UTAH	S UTAH	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn	blk Maya Banks	+0.0
28	20-8	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.0
29	21-8	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Emilia Linden	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.0
30	21-9	S UTAH	CHI ST	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.0
31	22-9	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Maya Banks	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.0
32	23-9	S UTAH	S UTAH	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Skye Riley	+0.0
33	23-10	S UTAH	CHI ST	Attack err	Zorana Stankovska		+0.0
34	24-10	CHI ST	S UTAH	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.0
35	24-11	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
36	25-11	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Emilia Linden		+0.7
2	1-1	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Maya Banks	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.6
3	1-2	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.7
4	2-2	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Celeste Uruena Jensen		+0.6
5	3-2	S UTAH	S UTAH	Kill	Natalie Moore		+0.6
6	3-3	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.6
7	4-3	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Audrey Atwood	set Talea Berry	+0.6
8	4-4	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.6
9	5-4	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Zorana Stankovska		+0.6
10	5-5	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.6
11	6-5	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Emilia Linden	set Talea Berry	+0.6
12	6-6	S UTAH	CHI ST	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.7
13	6-7	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Maya Banks		+0.9
14	7-7	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Kaitlyn Hoelker	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.7
15	7-8	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.8
16	8-8	CHI ST	S UTAH×3	Kill	Audrey Atwood	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.7
17	9-8	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Kill	Audrey Atwood	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.8
18	10-8	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.7
19	10-9	S UTAH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.6
20	10-10	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Natalie Moore		+0.9
21	10-11	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Audrey Atwood		+1.1
22	11-11	CHI ST	S UTAH×4	Attack err	Camryn McCollum	blk Maya Banks	+0.8
23	12-11	S UTAH	S UTAH×4	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Team	+0.9
24	13-11	S UTAH	S UTAH×4	Kill	Ryen Smith	set Talea Berry	+0.8
25	14-11	S UTAH	S UTAH×4	Kill	Ryen Smith	set Zorana Stankovska	+0.7
26	14-12	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.6
27	15-12	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.6
28	15-13	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.6
29	16-13	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.6
30	16-14	S UTAH	CHI ST	Bad set	Audrey Atwood		+0.6
31	17-14	CHI ST	S UTAH×6	Kill	Ryen Smith	set Talea Berry	+0.7
32	18-14	S UTAH	S UTAH×6	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.6
33	19-14	S UTAH	S UTAH×6	Kill	Kaitlyn Hoelker	set Audrey Atwood	+0.4
34	20-14	S UTAH	S UTAH×6	Kill	Kaitlyn Hoelker	set Ryen Smith	+0.3
35	21-14	S UTAH	S UTAH×6	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Skye Riley	+0.2
36	22-14	S UTAH	S UTAH×6	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.1
37	22-15	S UTAH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
38	22-16	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Bad set	Celeste Uruena Jensen		+0.1
39	22-17	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Maya Banks		+0.1
40	23-17	CHI ST	S UTAH	Bad set	Skye Riley		+0.2
41	23-18	S UTAH	CHI ST	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.1
42	23-19	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George		+0.2
43	24-19	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Maya Banks	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.2
44	24-20	S UTAH	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Natalie Moore	blk Nayella George, Rayon Thigpen	+0.1
45	24-21	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Audrey Atwood		+0.2
46	24-22	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.5
47	25-22	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Audrey Atwood	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.9
Set 3
1	0-1	S UTAH	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Celeste Uruena Jensen		+0.3
2	0-2	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Maya Banks		+0.4
3	0-3	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Maya Banks		+0.4
4	1-3	CHI ST	S UTAH	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.3
5	1-4	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.4
6	2-4	CHI ST	S UTAH×4	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.3
7	3-4	S UTAH	S UTAH×4	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Camryn McCollum	+0.4
8	4-4	S UTAH	S UTAH×4	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.3
9	5-4	S UTAH	S UTAH×4	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Team	+0.3
10	5-5	S UTAH	CHI ST	Attack err	Audrey Atwood		+0.3
11	6-5	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Audrey Atwood	set Talea Berry	+0.3
12	6-6	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.3
13	7-6	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.3
14	7-7	S UTAH	CHI ST	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.3
15	8-7	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Emilia Linden	set Talea Berry	+0.3
16	9-7	S UTAH	S UTAH	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Team	+0.3
17	9-8	S UTAH	CHI ST	Attack err	Maya Banks		+0.3
18	10-8	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Emilia Linden	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.3
19	10-9	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.3
20	11-9	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Kaitlyn Barnes	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.3
21	11-10	S UTAH	CHI ST	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.3
22	12-10	CHI ST	S UTAH×3	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.3
23	13-10	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.3
24	14-10	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Skye Riley	+0.3
25	14-11	S UTAH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.2
26	15-11	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Ryen Smith	set Talea Berry	+0.2
27	16-11	S UTAH	S UTAH	Ace	S UTAH server	aced Skye Riley	+0.2
28	16-12	S UTAH	CHI ST×4	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.1
29	16-13	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Attack err	Ryen Smith	blk Graci Littlejohn	+0.2
30	16-14	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Nayella George		+0.3
31	16-15	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Team	+0.4
32	17-15	CHI ST	S UTAH×3	Kill	Kaitlyn Hoelker	set Talea Berry	+0.4
33	18-15	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Kill	Kaitlyn Hoelker	set Talea Berry	+0.4
34	19-15	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.3
35	19-16	S UTAH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.2
36	19-17	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Ryen Smith	blk Nayella George	+0.4
37	19-18	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Kaitlyn Hoelker	blk Nina Mitchell	+0.5
38	20-18	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Audrey Atwood	set Talea Berry	+0.5
39	20-19	S UTAH	CHI ST	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.5
40	21-19	CHI ST	S UTAH	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.5
41	21-20	S UTAH	CHI ST	Attack err	Audrey Atwood	blk Kristine Bakhad, Rayon Thigpen	+0.5
42	21-21	CHI ST	CHI ST	Bad set	Celeste Uruena Jensen		+0.9
43	22-21	CHI ST	S UTAH	Kill	Emilia Linden	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+0.8
44	22-22	S UTAH	CHI ST	Serve err	S UTAH server		+0.9
45	23-22	CHI ST	S UTAH×3	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Celeste Uruena Jensen	+1.0
46	24-22	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Bad set	Emeli Muagututi'a		+1.0
47	25-22	S UTAH	S UTAH×3	Kill	Natalie Moore	set Talea Berry	+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Southern Utah first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.