FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

3:0

HomeMEAC

Nicholls def. South Carolina St. 3–0

(25-17, 25-14, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NICHST	25	25	25	3
SC ST	17	14	16	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SC ST above 50 · NICHST below

Biggest swing: 1.2% to Nicholls — set 1, NICHST 2-0 SC ST. Nicholls ace on Team. SC ST win probability 13% → 12%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NICHST 85.5%14.5% SC ST

Nicholls wins

3-0

37.7%

3-1

31.4%

3-2

16.4%

South Carolina St. wins

3-0

2.1%

3-1

4.6%

3-2

7.7%

NICHST break %: 48.7% vs this opp
SC ST break %: 40.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
NICHST serverAce+1.2%
Nicholls ace on Team
Set 1 · NICHST 2-0 SC ST · NICHST 87% → 88%
02
Ki'ra WrightAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Ki'ra Wright
Set 1 · NICHST 4-1 SC ST · NICHST 88% → 89%
03
Natalia NavarroKill+1.0%
Kill by Natalia Navarro (set by Macey McCoy)
Set 1 · NICHST 1-0 SC ST · NICHST 86% → 87%
04
De'oni McPhersonKill+1.0%
Kill by De'oni McPherson (set by Macey McCoy)
Set 1 · NICHST 2-1 SC ST · SC ST 12% → 13%
05
Kenna HarrisAttack error+0.9%
Kenna Harris stuffed by Maya Schirmer
Set 1 · NICHST 3-1 SC ST · NICHST 87% → 88%
06
Madison SmithKill+0.9%
Kill by Madison Smith (set by Isabella Padilla)
Set 1 · NICHST 5-1 SC ST · NICHST 89% → 90%
07
Ki'ra WrightAttack error+0.9%
Ki'ra Wright stuffed by Kera Arrington & Maya Schirmer
Set 2 · NICHST 1-0 SC ST · NICHST 92% → 93%
08
Mckenzie MitchellKill+0.9%
Kill by Mckenzie Mitchell (set by Isabella Padilla)
Set 2 · NICHST 4-2 SC ST · NICHST 93% → 94%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Nichollsaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Mckenzie MitchellOH	3	12	2	33	.303	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	13
5Maya SchirmerMB	3	10	2	15	.533	0	0	0	2	1	1	1.5	11.5
8Isabella PadillaS	3	4	0	6	.667	32	5	1	6	0	1	0.5	9.5
19Madison SmithOH	3	6	5	23	.043	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	6
18Kera ArringtonOH	3	5	6	18	-.056	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
15Harper HoldenMB	3	2	2	7	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	3
11Natalia NavarroL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	2	3	3	21	0	0	0	4
1Lizzie KraftDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	0	6	0	0	0	2
14Beryn HylandOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Ava-Claire CalaisS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	17	104	.231	37	11	7	52	1	6	4	75

South Carolina St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Taelyn GrahamMB	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	3	0	1	2	2	6
3Amani HawkinsOH	3	5	2	18	.167	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
4De'oni McPhersonOH	3	3	1	8	.250	1	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
1Ki'ra WrightL/DS	3	3	5	21	-.095	0	0	9	2	1	0	1	4
2Kenna HarrisOH	3	2	4	15	-.133	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
6Macey McCoyS	3	0	1	4	-.250	12	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
15Jade RobinsonMB	3	4	1	12	.250	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	6
20Chloe NealL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	2	6	3	0	0	0	1
19Arianna JamesS	3	0	1	3	-.333	7	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
11Kiyla MightyS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Jordan DallandL/DS	2	0	1	5	-.200	2	1	4	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		22	17	94	.053	22	3	39	11	2	10	7	47

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 9 NICHST · SC ST 4

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 4 NICHSTSC ST 4

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 6 NICHSTSC ST 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 9 NICHSTSC ST 3

Bars above the line = South Carolina St. leads, below = Nicholls leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Nicholls

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%6/8	75%12/16
2	86%6/7	57%8/14
3	75%6/8	65%11/17
4	86%6/7	33%3/9
5	67%6/9	14%1/7
6	40%4/10	60%6/10
All	69%34/49	56%41/73

South Carolina St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%6/12	38%3/8
2	40%6/15	25%2/8
3	46%6/13	25%2/8
4	86%6/7	14%1/7
5	56%5/9	33%3/9
6	18%3/17	44%4/9
All	44%32/73	31%15/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

122 rallies

Rally log

#	NICHST-SC ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Natalia Navarro	set Macey McCoy	+1.0
2	2-0	NICHST	NICHST	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+1.2
3	2-1	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	De'oni McPherson	set Macey McCoy	+1.0
4	3-1	SC ST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Kenna Harris	blk Maya Schirmer	+0.9
5	4-1	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Ki'ra Wright		+1.1
6	5-1	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Madison Smith	set Isabella Padilla	+0.9
7	6-1	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Ki'ra Wright	blk Harper Holden, Isabella Padilla	+0.8
8	6-2	NICHST	SC ST	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.6
9	7-2	SC ST	NICHST	Serve err	SC ST server		+0.6
10	7-3	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Taelyn Graham	set Macey McCoy	+0.6
11	8-3	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.6
12	8-4	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Jade Robinson	set Jordan Dalland	+0.6
13	9-4	SC ST	NICHST×3	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.6
14	10-4	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.6
15	11-4	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Taelyn Graham		+0.5
16	11-5	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Amani Hawkins	set Arianna James	+0.3
17	11-6	SC ST	SC ST	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.5
18	12-6	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Natalia Navarro	+0.5
19	13-6	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Amani Hawkins		+0.5
20	13-7	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Amani Hawkins	set Arianna James	+0.3
21	14-7	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.4
22	14-8	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	De'oni McPherson	set Macey McCoy	+0.3
23	14-9	SC ST	SC ST	Kill	Ki'ra Wright	set Macey McCoy	+0.5
24	15-9	SC ST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Ki'ra Wright		+0.5
25	16-9	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Jordan Dalland		+0.4
26	17-9	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Kenna Harris		+0.3
27	18-9	NICHST	NICHST×4	Ace	NICHST server	aced Jordan Dalland	+0.2
28	18-10	NICHST	SC ST	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.1
29	18-11	SC ST	SC ST	Bad set	Isabella Padilla		+0.2
30	19-11	SC ST	NICHST	Attack err	Macey McCoy		+0.2
31	20-11	NICHST	NICHST	Ace	NICHST server	aced Chloe Neal	+0.1
32	20-12	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Taelyn Graham	set Macey McCoy	+0.1
33	21-12	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
34	21-13	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Jade Robinson	set Arianna James	+0.0
35	22-13	SC ST	NICHST	Attack err	Arianna James	blk Kera Arrington, Harper Holden	+0.1
36	22-14	NICHST	SC ST×4	Kill	Amani Hawkins	set Arianna James	+0.0
37	22-15	SC ST	SC ST×4	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk Jade Robinson, De'oni McPherson	+0.1
38	22-16	SC ST	SC ST×4	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.1
39	22-17	SC ST	SC ST×4	Attack err	Maya Schirmer		+0.2
40	23-17	SC ST	NICHST×3	Serve err	SC ST server		+0.3
41	24-17	NICHST	NICHST×3	Ace	NICHST server	aced Ki'ra Wright	+0.1
42	25-17	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Jade Robinson		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	Ki'ra Wright	blk Kera Arrington, Maya Schirmer	+0.9
2	1-1	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Kenna Harris	set Macey McCoy	+0.8
3	2-1	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.7
4	2-2	NICHST	SC ST	Attack err	Madison Smith	blk Taelyn Graham, Amani Hawkins	+0.8
5	3-2	SC ST	NICHST×6	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.8
6	4-2	NICHST	NICHST×6	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.9
7	5-2	NICHST	NICHST×6	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+0.8
8	6-2	NICHST	NICHST×6	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.7
9	7-2	NICHST	NICHST×6	Ace	NICHST server	aced Amani Hawkins	+0.5
10	8-2	NICHST	NICHST×6	Attack err	Kenna Harris		+0.4
11	8-3	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Amani Hawkins	set De'oni McPherson	+0.3
12	9-3	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
13	10-3	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Arianna James	+0.3
14	10-4	NICHST	SC ST	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.2
15	11-4	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
16	11-5	NICHST	SC ST	Attack err	Harper Holden		+0.2
17	12-5	SC ST	NICHST×4	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Mckenzie Mitchell	+0.3
18	13-5	NICHST	NICHST×4	Bad set	Jordan Dalland		+0.2
19	14-5	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
20	15-5	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
21	15-6	NICHST	SC ST×3	Kill	Taelyn Graham	set Arianna James	+0.1
22	15-7	SC ST	SC ST×3	Kill	Taelyn Graham	set Macey McCoy	+0.1
23	15-8	SC ST	SC ST×3	Kill	Ki'ra Wright	set Macey McCoy	+0.2
24	16-8	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
25	16-9	NICHST	SC ST	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.1
26	16-10	SC ST	SC ST	Attack err	Mckenzie Mitchell		+0.2
27	17-10	SC ST	NICHST×4	Kill	Madison Smith	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
28	18-10	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
29	19-10	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
30	20-10	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
31	20-11	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Amani Hawkins	set Macey McCoy	+0.0
32	21-11	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
33	21-12	NICHST	SC ST	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
34	22-12	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
35	22-13	NICHST	SC ST	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
36	23-13	SC ST	NICHST	Serve err	SC ST server		+0.0
37	24-13	NICHST	NICHST	Attack err	De'oni McPherson		+0.0
38	24-14	NICHST	SC ST	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.0
39	25-14	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	SC ST	SC ST	Attack err	Madison Smith	blk Taelyn Graham	+0.5
2	1-1	SC ST	NICHST×5	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.4
3	2-1	NICHST	NICHST×5	Attack err	Ki'ra Wright		+0.5
4	3-1	NICHST	NICHST×5	Attack err	Kenna Harris		+0.4
5	4-1	NICHST	NICHST×5	Bad set	Macey McCoy		+0.4
6	5-1	NICHST	NICHST×5	Ace	NICHST server	aced Chloe Neal	+0.3
7	5-2	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Ki'ra Wright	set Macey McCoy	+0.3
8	6-2	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
9	6-3	NICHST	SC ST	Attack err	Madison Smith		+0.3
10	7-3	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
11	7-4	NICHST	SC ST	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.3
12	8-4	SC ST	NICHST	Attack err	Amani Hawkins		+0.3
13	8-5	NICHST	SC ST×3	Kill	Jade Robinson	set Jordan Dalland	+0.3
14	8-6	SC ST	SC ST×3	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk Jade Robinson, De'oni McPherson	+0.4
15	8-7	SC ST	SC ST×3	Attack err	Harper Holden	blk Ki'ra Wright	+0.5
16	9-7	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Harper Holden	set Kera Arrington	+0.4
17	10-7	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.4
18	10-8	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	De'oni McPherson	set Arianna James	+0.4
19	11-8	SC ST	NICHST×9	Kill	Isabella Padilla		+0.4
20	12-8	NICHST	NICHST×9	Kill	Madison Smith	set Natalia Navarro	+0.4
21	13-8	NICHST	NICHST×9	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+0.3
22	14-8	NICHST	NICHST×9	Kill	Maya Schirmer		+0.2
23	15-8	NICHST	NICHST×9	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+0.2
24	16-8	NICHST	NICHST×9	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
25	17-8	NICHST	NICHST×9	Ace	NICHST server	aced Ki'ra Wright	+0.1
26	18-8	NICHST	NICHST×9	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
27	19-8	NICHST	NICHST×9	Ace	NICHST server	aced Chloe Neal	+0.0
28	19-9	NICHST	SC ST	Attack err	Madison Smith	blk Taelyn Graham, Jade Robinson	+0.0
29	20-9	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
30	20-10	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Chloe Neal	set Macey McCoy	+0.0
31	21-10	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
32	21-11	NICHST	SC ST	Attack err	Mckenzie Mitchell		+0.0
33	21-12	SC ST	SC ST	Attack err	Madison Smith		+0.0
34	22-12	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
35	23-12	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Beryn Hyland	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
36	23-13	NICHST	SC ST	Kill	Kenna Harris	set Macey McCoy	+0.0
37	23-14	SC ST	SC ST	Kill	Jade Robinson	set Arianna James	+0.0
38	24-14	SC ST	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Lizzie Kraft	+0.0
39	24-15	NICHST	SC ST	Attack err	Maya Schirmer		+0.0
40	24-16	SC ST	SC ST	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk De'oni McPherson, Jade Robinson	+0.0
41	25-16	SC ST	NICHST	Serve err	SC ST server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Nicholls first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.