FinalThu, Sep 17, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

3:0

HomeNEC

UC Riverside def. Chicago St. 3–0

(25-13, 25-21, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UC RIV	25	25	25	3
CHI ST	13	21	14	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CHI ST above 50 · UC RIV below

Biggest swing: 0.2% to Chicago St. — set 2, UC RIV 15-15 CHI ST. Chicago St. ace on Misu Nguyen. CHI ST win probability 1% → 1%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UC RIV 99.1%0.9% CHI ST

UC Riverside wins

3-0

74.8%

3-1

20.7%

3-2

3.6%

Chicago St. wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.6%

UC RIV break %: 54.7% vs this opp
CHI ST break %: 36.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
CHI ST serverAce+0.2%
Chicago St. ace on Misu Nguyen
Set 2 · UC RIV 15-15 CHI ST · CHI ST 1% → 1%
02
UC RIV serverAce+0.2%
UC Riverside ace on Nina Mitchell
Set 2 · UC RIV 17-15 CHI ST · UC RIV 99% → 100%
03
Sariah JohnsonKill+0.2%
Kill by Sariah Johnson (set by Elena Kasavica)
Set 2 · UC RIV 16-15 CHI ST · UC RIV 99% → 99%
04
Camryn McCollumKill+0.2%
Kill by Camryn McCollum (set by Kristine Bakhad)
Set 2 · UC RIV 18-17 CHI ST · CHI ST 0% → 1%
05
Andrea BrewerKill+0.2%
Kill by Andrea Brewer (set by Maya Barron)
Set 2 · UC RIV 19-17 CHI ST · UC RIV 99% → 100%
06
Sariah JohnsonAttack error+0.1%
Sariah Johnson stuffed by Camryn McCollum & Nina Mitchell
Set 2 · UC RIV 15-14 CHI ST · CHI ST 0% → 1%
07
Nina MitchellAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Nina Mitchell
Set 2 · UC RIV 24-21 CHI ST · UC RIV 100% → 100%
08
Nina MitchellKill+0.1%
Kill by Nina Mitchell (set by Skye Riley)
Set 2 · UC RIV 17-16 CHI ST · CHI ST 0% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UC Riversideaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Andrea BrewerOH	3	15	2	27	.481	1	1	0	15	0	0	0	0	16
4Zeynep BelgutayMB	3	8	1	13	.538	1	0	0	5	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
3Sariah JohnsonOH	3	9	5	19	.211	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9
14Juliette D'EliseoOH	3	3	2	12	.083	3	1	0	8	0	0	2	1	5
15Evelyn HendrixMB	3	4	0	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
11Elena KasavicaS	3	0	0	0	–	22	1	1	10	0	0	0	0	1
12Malia TanksleyOH	3	7	7	17	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
19Misu NguyenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	1	9	1	0	0	0	2
22Maya BarronS	3	0	0	0	–	17	1	3	3	0	0	0	0	1
5McKenna GilesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
1Madison PulsipherOH	1	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
17Izzy JefferyMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	18	100	.300	46	6	6	56	1	1	6	4	75

Chicago St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Nayella GeorgeOH	3	7	5	37	.054	2	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	7
2Camryn McCollumOH	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	5
9Nina MitchellOH	3	3	4	17	-.059	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	1	4
3Graci LittlejohnMB	3	3	3	10	.000	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	4
8Kristine BakhadS	3	2	3	16	-.063	9	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	2
5Emeli Muagututi'aS	3	0	0	0	–	6	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
12Skye RileyOH	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	0	9	1	0	0	0	1
7Reece MazzierL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
6Tenese ButtryDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
1Rayon ThigpenMB	2	2	0	7	.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
4Jenesis PerrinMB	2	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2
Team totals		21	17	97	.041	18	1	3	32	6	3	4	5	48

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 9 UC RIV · CHI ST 3

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 6 UC RIVCHI ST 3

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 4 UC RIVCHI ST 3

Set 3

25-14

Longest run 9 UC RIVCHI ST 2

Bars above the line = Chicago St. leads, below = UC Riverside leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UC Riverside

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	44%4/9
2	60%6/10	73%16/22
3	50%6/12	63%10/16
4	63%5/8	17%1/6
5	100%5/5	38%3/8
6	67%4/6	67%8/12
All	66%33/50	58%42/73

Chicago St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	32%7/22	25%2/8
2	33%6/18	30%3/10
3	63%5/8	50%6/12
4	83%5/6	38%3/8
5	31%4/13	29%2/7
6	67%4/6	20%1/5
All	42%31/73	34%17/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	UC RIV-CHI ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CHI ST	UC RIV×5	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Elena Kasavica	+0.1
2	2-0	UC RIV	UC RIV×5	Kill	Sariah Johnson	set Elena Kasavica	+0.1
3	3-0	UC RIV	UC RIV×5	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Juliette D'Eliseo	+0.1
4	4-0	UC RIV	UC RIV×5	Kill	Sariah Johnson	set Elena Kasavica	+0.1
5	5-0	UC RIV	UC RIV×5	Kill	Zeynep Belgutay	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
6	5-1	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.0
7	5-2	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Nayella George	+0.1
8	6-2	CHI ST	UC RIV×4	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Elena Kasavica	+0.1
9	7-2	UC RIV	UC RIV×4	Kill	Malia Tanksley	set Maya Barron	+0.1
10	8-2	UC RIV	UC RIV×4	Attack err	Nina Mitchell	blk Zeynep Belgutay	+0.0
11	9-2	UC RIV	UC RIV×4	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Juliette D'Eliseo	+0.0
12	9-3	UC RIV	CHI ST×3	Serve err	UC RIV server		+0.0
13	9-4	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.0
14	9-5	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Malia Tanksley		+0.1
15	10-5	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Malia Tanksley	set Maya Barron	+0.0
16	10-6	UC RIV	CHI ST	Attack err	Juliette D'Eliseo		+0.1
17	11-6	CHI ST	UC RIV	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.1
18	12-6	UC RIV	UC RIV	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.0
19	12-7	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
20	13-7	CHI ST	UC RIV×6	Kill	Evelyn Hendrix	set Maya Barron	+0.0
21	14-7	UC RIV	UC RIV×6	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn	blk Evelyn Hendrix, Juliette D'Eliseo	+0.0
22	15-7	UC RIV	UC RIV×6	Kill	Juliette D'Eliseo	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
23	16-7	UC RIV	UC RIV×6	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
24	17-7	UC RIV	UC RIV×6	Ace	UC RIV server	aced Graci Littlejohn	+0.0
25	18-7	UC RIV	UC RIV×6	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
26	18-8	UC RIV	CHI ST	Serve err	UC RIV server		+0.0
27	18-9	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Juliette D'Eliseo		+0.0
28	19-9	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Sariah Johnson	set Andrea Brewer	+0.0
29	19-10	UC RIV	CHI ST	Attack err	Sariah Johnson		+0.0
30	20-10	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
31	20-11	UC RIV	CHI ST	Serve err	UC RIV server		+0.0
32	21-11	CHI ST	UC RIV×3	Kill	Zeynep Belgutay	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
33	22-11	UC RIV	UC RIV×3	Ace	UC RIV server	aced Nina Mitchell	+0.0
34	23-11	UC RIV	UC RIV×3	Kill	Zeynep Belgutay	set Maya Barron	+0.0
35	23-12	UC RIV	CHI ST	Serve err	UC RIV server		+0.0
36	23-13	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Malia Tanksley		+0.0
37	24-13	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Maya Barron	+0.0
38	25-13	UC RIV	UC RIV	Kill	Juliette D'Eliseo	set Maya Barron	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UC RIV	UC RIV×3	Attack err	Kristine Bakhad		+0.1
2	2-0	UC RIV	UC RIV×3	Bad set	Graci Littlejohn		+0.1
3	3-0	UC RIV	UC RIV×3	Kill	Sariah Johnson	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
4	3-1	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.0
5	4-1	CHI ST	UC RIV×4	Kill	Evelyn Hendrix	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
6	5-1	UC RIV	UC RIV×4	Ace	UC RIV server	aced Skye Riley	+0.0
7	6-1	UC RIV	UC RIV×4	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
8	7-1	UC RIV	UC RIV×4	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.0
9	7-2	UC RIV	CHI ST	Attack err	Andrea Brewer	blk Graci Littlejohn	+0.0
10	8-2	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Sariah Johnson	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
11	9-2	UC RIV	UC RIV	Ace	UC RIV server	aced Nayella George	+0.0
12	9-3	UC RIV	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Andrea Brewer		+0.0
13	9-4	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Sariah Johnson		+0.0
14	9-5	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Bad set	Elena Kasavica		+0.0
15	10-5	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Zeynep Belgutay	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
16	10-6	UC RIV	CHI ST×3	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Misu Nguyen	+0.0
17	10-7	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
18	10-8	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
19	11-8	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Malia Tanksley	set Maya Barron	+0.1
20	12-8	UC RIV	UC RIV	Ace	UC RIV server	aced Reece Mazzier	+0.1
21	12-9	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
22	13-9	CHI ST	UC RIV	Attack err	Kristine Bakhad		+0.0
23	13-10	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
24	13-11	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Malia Tanksley		+0.1
25	14-11	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Malia Tanksley	set Maya Barron	+0.1
26	14-12	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.1
27	15-12	CHI ST	UC RIV	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.1
28	15-13	UC RIV	CHI ST×3	Bad set	Evelyn Hendrix		+0.1
29	15-14	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Attack err	Sariah Johnson	blk Camryn McCollum, Nina Mitchell	+0.1
30	15-15	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Misu Nguyen	+0.2
31	16-15	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Sariah Johnson	set Elena Kasavica	+0.2
32	17-15	UC RIV	UC RIV	Ace	UC RIV server	aced Nina Mitchell	+0.2
33	17-16	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Skye Riley	+0.1
34	18-16	CHI ST	UC RIV	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.1
35	18-17	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.2
36	19-17	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Maya Barron	+0.2
37	20-17	UC RIV	UC RIV	Attack err	Camryn McCollum	blk Juliette D'Eliseo, Zeynep Belgutay	+0.1
38	20-18	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
39	21-18	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Malia Tanksley	set Maya Barron	+0.1
40	22-18	UC RIV	UC RIV	Kill	Evelyn Hendrix	set Maya Barron	+0.1
41	22-19	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
42	23-19	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Malia Tanksley	set Maya Barron	+0.1
43	23-20	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.0
44	23-21	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Sariah Johnson		+0.1
45	24-21	CHI ST	UC RIV	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.1
46	25-21	UC RIV	UC RIV	Attack err	Kristine Bakhad		+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Nayella George	+0.0
2	1-1	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Juliette D'Eliseo	+0.0
3	1-2	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.0
4	1-3	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Zeynep Belgutay		+0.1
5	2-3	CHI ST	UC RIV×4	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.0
6	3-3	UC RIV	UC RIV×4	Kill	Zeynep Belgutay		+0.0
7	4-3	UC RIV	UC RIV×4	Kill	Malia Tanksley	set Zeynep Belgutay	+0.0
8	5-3	UC RIV	UC RIV×4	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Misu Nguyen	+0.0
9	5-4	UC RIV	CHI ST	Serve err	UC RIV server		+0.0
10	5-5	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Malia Tanksley	blk Camryn McCollum	+0.0
11	6-5	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Zeynep Belgutay	set Maya Barron	+0.0
12	6-6	UC RIV	CHI ST	Attack err	Malia Tanksley		+0.0
13	7-6	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Juliette D'Eliseo	set Maya Barron	+0.0
14	7-7	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
15	8-7	CHI ST	UC RIV×3	Attack err	Nayella George	blk Evelyn Hendrix, Malia Tanksley	+0.0
16	9-7	UC RIV	UC RIV×3	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.0
17	10-7	UC RIV	UC RIV×3	Kill	Sariah Johnson	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
18	10-8	UC RIV	CHI ST	Attack err	Sariah Johnson		+0.0
19	11-8	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Evelyn Hendrix	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
20	12-8	UC RIV	UC RIV	Kill	Sariah Johnson	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
21	12-9	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
22	13-9	CHI ST	UC RIV×9	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
23	14-9	UC RIV	UC RIV×9	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Misu Nguyen	+0.0
24	15-9	UC RIV	UC RIV×9	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
25	16-9	UC RIV	UC RIV×9	Kill	Andrea Brewer		+0.0
26	17-9	UC RIV	UC RIV×9	Kill	Sariah Johnson	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
27	18-9	UC RIV	UC RIV×9	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
28	19-9	UC RIV	UC RIV×9	Kill	Zeynep Belgutay	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
29	20-9	UC RIV	UC RIV×9	Kill	Zeynep Belgutay	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
30	21-9	UC RIV	UC RIV×9	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Elena Kasavica	+0.0
31	21-10	UC RIV	CHI ST	Serve err	UC RIV server		+0.0
32	22-10	CHI ST	UC RIV	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.0
33	22-11	UC RIV	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Emeli Muagututi'a	+0.0
34	23-11	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Andrea Brewer	set Maya Barron	+0.0
35	23-12	UC RIV	CHI ST	Attack err	Madison Pulsipher	blk Jenesis Perrin	+0.0
36	23-13	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Malia Tanksley		+0.0
37	24-13	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Madison Pulsipher	set Maya Barron	+0.0
38	24-14	UC RIV	CHI ST	Attack err	Malia Tanksley	blk Nina Mitchell, Camryn McCollum	+0.0
39	25-14	CHI ST	UC RIV	Kill	Madison Pulsipher	set Maya Barron	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UC Riverside first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.