FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwayMVC

3:0

HomeSWAC

Southern Ill. def. Texas Southern 3–0

(25-21, 25-14, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SIU	25	25	25	3
TX SOU	21	14	21	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TX SOU above 50 · SIU below

Biggest swing: 2.9% to Southern Ill. — set 1, SIU 20-19 TX SOU. Southern Ill. ace on Lauren Battle. TX SOU win probability 16% → 13%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SIU 86.9%13.1% TX SOU

Southern Ill. wins

3-0

39.6%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.7%

Texas Southern wins

3-0

1.9%

3-1

4.1%

3-2

7.1%

SIU break %: 49.0% vs this opp
TX SOU break %: 40.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
SIU serverAce+2.9%
Southern Ill. ace on Lauren Battle
Set 1 · SIU 20-19 TX SOU · SIU 84% → 87%
02
Morgynne McQueenAttack error+2.5%
Morgynne McQueen stuffed by Chloe Anderson
Set 1 · SIU 21-19 TX SOU · SIU 87% → 90%
03
Aliyah SpencerKill+2.5%
Kill by Aliyah Spencer (set by Ava Ray)
Set 1 · SIU 18-19 TX SOU · TX SOU 16% → 18%
04
Ava HoustonAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Ava Houston
Set 1 · SIU 17-17 TX SOU · SIU 82% → 85%
05
Selana MoralesAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Selana Morales
Set 1 · SIU 16-17 TX SOU · SIU 80% → 82%
06
SIU serverService error+2.3%
Southern Ill. service error
Set 1 · SIU 17-18 TX SOU · TX SOU 15% → 18%
07
Ava HoustonAttack error+2.3%
Attack error by Ava Houston
Set 1 · SIU 19-19 TX SOU · SIU 82% → 84%
08
McKenzie MoellerKill+2.2%
Kill by McKenzie Moeller (set by Ella McFarland)
Set 1 · SIU 22-20 TX SOU · SIU 88% → 90%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern Ill.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Natalie VanceOPP	3	9	5	22	.182	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
22Chloe AndersonMB	3	5	2	12	.250	0	1	2	2	0	1	5	3.5	9.5
3McKenzie MoellerOH	3	6	3	19	.158	1	1	0	7	0	0	2	1	8
13Beatriz PiaiaMB	3	3	2	12	.083	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
12Carlota MoraOH	3	0	1	3	-.333	1	2	0	5	2	0	0	0	2
4Ella McFarlandOPP	3	1	0	2	.500	14	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	2
14Ella SwansigerOH	3	9	1	16	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9
11Jillian ShaneyfeltL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	3	1	7	1	0	0	0	3
21Isabella Del RealL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
9Lillian DempkeyS	3	0	0	0	–	13	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	1
8Alexandria ArringtonS	2	3	3	17	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
17Julia LaidigDS	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	17	105	.181	32	10	6	40	3	1	12	7	75

Texas Southernhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Lauren BattleOH	3	6	6	22	.000	3	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	7
4Selana MoralesOH	3	6	4	22	.091	0	0	0	4	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
21Aliyah SpencerMB	3	4	1	9	.333	0	1	1	2	0	0	2	1	6
11Ava RayS	3	2	0	2	1.000	11	0	0	11	1	0	0	0	2
6Ava HoustonMB	2	2	2	11	.000	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
7Morgynne McQueenMB	2	0	3	5	-.600	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	1
12Keldri YoungOH	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5
15Kaiulani SherrowS	3	1	0	2	.500	9	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
2Lacey KusnierOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
17Lauanna Pino WatanabeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	11	3	0	0	0	0
20Aaliyah BrownMB	1	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
3Gracie LeeOH	1	1	4	9	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		30	24	102	.059	26	3	4	42	10	2	4	4	56

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 SIU · TX SOU 3

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 SIUTX SOU 3

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 6 SIUTX SOU 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 SIUTX SOU 3

Bars above the line = Texas Southern leads, below = Southern Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern Ill.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	42%5/12
2	88%7/8	36%4/11
3	78%7/9	65%13/20
4	54%7/13	50%7/14
5	71%5/7	38%3/8
6	63%5/8	44%4/9
All	68%39/57	49%36/74

Texas Southern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	40%4/10
2	44%7/16	27%3/11
3	50%7/14	30%3/10
4	43%6/14	22%2/9
5	56%5/9	40%4/10
6	83%5/6	29%2/7
All	51%38/74	32%18/57

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

131 rallies

Rally log

#	SIU-TX SOU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SIU	TX SOU×3	Serve err	SIU server		+1.1
2	0-2	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Natalie Vance		+1.5
3	0-3	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Lauanna Pino Watanabe	+1.6
4	1-3	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Aliyah Spencer	+1.1
5	1-4	SIU	TX SOU	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+1.4
6	2-4	TX SOU	SIU	Serve err	TX SOU server		+1.2
7	3-4	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Morgynne McQueen		+1.5
8	3-5	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Lauanna Pino Watanabe	+1.3
9	4-5	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+1.2
10	5-5	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Keldri Young		+1.4
11	5-6	SIU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+1.3
12	5-7	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Keldri Young	set Chloe Anderson	+1.7
13	5-8	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Carlota Mora	+1.9
14	6-8	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Lillian Dempkey	+1.3
15	6-9	SIU	TX SOU	Attack err	Chloe Anderson	blk Morgynne McQueen	+1.6
16	7-9	TX SOU	SIU	Serve err	TX SOU server		+1.3
17	7-10	SIU	TX SOU	Attack err	Ella Swansiger		+1.6
18	8-10	TX SOU	SIU	Attack err	Selana Morales		+1.4
19	8-11	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+1.7
20	8-12	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Natalie Vance		+2.1
21	9-12	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Ella McFarland	+1.4
22	9-13	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Aliyah Spencer	set Ava Ray	+1.8
23	10-13	TX SOU	SIU	Serve err	TX SOU server		+1.4
24	10-14	SIU	TX SOU	Attack err	Natalie Vance		+1.8
25	11-14	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Ella McFarland	+1.4
26	11-15	SIU	TX SOU	Serve err	SIU server		+1.9
27	12-15	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Lillian Dempkey	+1.5
28	12-16	SIU	TX SOU	Attack err	Carlota Mora		+2.0
29	13-16	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Lillian Dempkey	+1.5
30	13-17	SIU	TX SOU	Serve err	SIU server		+2.0
31	14-17	TX SOU	SIU×4	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Lillian Dempkey	+1.5
32	15-17	SIU	SIU×4	Attack err	Selana Morales		+2.2
33	16-17	SIU	SIU×4	Attack err	Selana Morales		+2.4
34	17-17	SIU	SIU×4	Attack err	Ava Houston		+2.5
35	17-18	SIU	TX SOU	Serve err	SIU server		+2.3
36	18-18	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Ava Houston	+2.1
37	18-19	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Aliyah Spencer	set Ava Ray	+2.5
38	19-19	TX SOU	SIU×3	Attack err	Ava Houston		+2.3
39	20-19	SIU	SIU×3	Ace	SIU server	aced Lauren Battle	+2.9
40	21-19	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Morgynne McQueen	blk Chloe Anderson	+2.5
41	21-20	SIU	TX SOU	Serve err	SIU server		+1.9
42	22-20	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+2.2
43	23-20	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Lauren Battle		+2.0
44	23-21	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Kaiulani Sherrow	set Lauren Battle	+1.0
45	24-21	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Lillian Dempkey	+1.7
46	25-21	SIU	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.8
Set 2
1	1-0	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Ella McFarland	+0.7
2	1-1	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Selana Morales	set Lauanna Pino Watanabe	+0.7
3	2-1	TX SOU	SIU×6	Attack err	Lauren Battle	blk Beatriz Piaia, Natalie Vance	+0.7
4	3-1	SIU	SIU×6	Attack err	Gracie Lee		+0.8
5	4-1	SIU	SIU×6	Attack err	Lauren Battle		+0.7
6	5-1	SIU	SIU×6	Ace	SIU server	aced Lauren Battle	+0.6
7	6-1	SIU	SIU×6	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Ella McFarland	+0.5
8	7-1	SIU	SIU×6	Attack err	Aliyah Spencer	blk McKenzie Moeller, Chloe Anderson	+0.4
9	7-2	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Ava Ray	+0.3
10	7-3	TX SOU	TX SOU	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Carlota Mora	+0.5
11	8-3	TX SOU	SIU	Serve err	TX SOU server		+0.4
12	8-4	SIU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Ava Ray	+0.4
13	8-5	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+0.6
14	8-6	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.8
15	9-6	TX SOU	SIU	Attack err	Morgynne McQueen		+0.6
16	9-7	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Keldri Young	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+0.6
17	10-7	TX SOU	SIU×4	Attack err	Keldri Young	blk Alexandria Arrington, Chloe Anderson	+0.6
18	11-7	SIU	SIU×4	Ace	SIU server	aced Team	+0.7
19	12-7	SIU	SIU×4	Attack err	Keldri Young		+0.5
20	13-7	SIU	SIU×4	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.4
21	13-8	SIU	TX SOU	Serve err	SIU server		+0.3
22	14-8	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Jillian Shaneyfelt	+0.3
23	14-9	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Selana Morales	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+0.3
24	14-10	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Natalie Vance	blk Selana Morales, Aliyah Spencer	+0.5
25	15-10	TX SOU	SIU×3	Bad set	Ava Ray		+0.5
26	16-10	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Gracie Lee		+0.4
27	17-10	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	Beatriz Piaia	set Ella McFarland	+0.3
28	17-11	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Selana Morales	set Ava Ray	+0.2
29	18-11	TX SOU	SIU×3	Attack err	Gracie Lee		+0.2
30	19-11	SIU	SIU×3	Attack err	Lauren Battle	blk Natalie Vance, Chloe Anderson	+0.2
31	20-11	SIU	SIU×3	Ace	SIU server	aced Lauanna Pino Watanabe	+0.1
32	20-12	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Gracie Lee	set Ava Ray	+0.0
33	20-13	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.1
34	21-13	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Ella McFarland	set Carlota Mora	+0.1
35	22-13	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Gracie Lee	blk McKenzie Moeller, Chloe Anderson	+0.0
36	22-14	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Ray	set Lauren Battle	+0.0
37	23-14	TX SOU	SIU×3	Attack err	Lauren Battle		+0.0
38	24-14	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.0
39	25-14	SIU	SIU×3	Ace	SIU server	aced Lauren Battle	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Aliyah Spencer	set Ava Ray	+0.4
2	1-1	TX SOU	SIU×3	Kill	Beatriz Piaia	set Ella McFarland	+0.3
3	2-1	SIU	SIU×3	Ace	SIU server	aced Lauanna Pino Watanabe	+0.4
4	3-1	SIU	SIU×3	Ace	SIU server	aced Ava Ray	+0.4
5	3-2	SIU	TX SOU	Attack err	McKenzie Moeller		+0.3
6	4-2	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Ella McFarland	+0.3
7	4-3	SIU	TX SOU	Attack err	Natalie Vance		+0.3
8	5-3	TX SOU	SIU×4	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.3
9	6-3	SIU	SIU×4	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.3
10	7-3	SIU	SIU×4	Ace	SIU server	aced Lauanna Pino Watanabe	+0.3
11	8-3	SIU	SIU×4	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.2
12	8-4	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Aaliyah Brown	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+0.2
13	9-4	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.2
14	9-5	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Keldri Young	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+0.2
15	10-5	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.2
16	11-5	SIU	SIU	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.2
17	11-6	SIU	TX SOU	Attack err	Chloe Anderson		+0.1
18	11-7	TX SOU	TX SOU	Kill	Selana Morales	set Ava Ray	+0.2
19	12-7	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Ella Swansiger	set Lillian Dempkey	+0.2
20	12-8	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Lauanna Pino Watanabe	+0.2
21	13-8	TX SOU	SIU	Attack err	Selana Morales		+0.2
22	13-9	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Aliyah Spencer	set Ava Ray	+0.2
23	13-10	TX SOU	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+0.3
24	14-10	TX SOU	SIU×4	Kill	Beatriz Piaia	set Ella McFarland	+0.3
25	15-10	SIU	SIU×4	Attack err	Lauren Battle	blk Chloe Anderson, Natalie Vance	+0.3
26	16-10	SIU	SIU×4	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Isabella Del Real	+0.2
27	17-10	SIU	SIU×4	Ace	SIU server	aced Lauren Battle	+0.1
28	17-11	SIU	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Ray	set Lauren Battle	+0.1
29	18-11	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Chloe Anderson	set Ella McFarland	+0.1
30	19-11	SIU	SIU	Attack err	Aaliyah Brown		+0.1
31	19-12	SIU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Aaliyah Brown	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+0.0
32	19-13	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Selana Morales		+0.1
33	19-14	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Keldri Young	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+0.1
34	20-14	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.1
35	20-15	SIU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Alexandria Arrington		+0.1
36	20-16	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Keldri Young	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+0.2
37	20-17	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Alexandria Arrington		+0.3
38	21-17	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	McKenzie Moeller	set Ella McFarland	+0.3
39	21-18	SIU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Selana Morales	set Kaiulani Sherrow	+0.2
40	21-19	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Beatriz Piaia		+0.5
41	21-20	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Alexandria Arrington	blk Ava Houston, Aliyah Spencer	+0.8
42	22-20	TX SOU	SIU×3	Kill	Alexandria Arrington	set McKenzie Moeller	+0.8
43	23-20	SIU	SIU×3	Ace	SIU server	aced Selana Morales	+0.7
44	24-20	SIU	SIU×3	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Isabella Del Real	+0.4
45	24-21	SIU	TX SOU	Attack err	Beatriz Piaia	blk Ava Houston	+0.1
46	25-21	TX SOU	SIU	Kill	Natalie Vance	set Ella McFarland	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Southern Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.