FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayAMERICAN

0:3

HomeSWAC

Texas Southern def. Charlotte 3–0

(25-19, 25-23, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CHAR	19	23	18	0
TX SOU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TX SOU above 50 · CHAR below

Biggest swing: 14.6% to Texas Southern — set 2, CHAR 23-25 TX SOU. Texas Southern ace on Chloe Maughan. TX SOU win probability 37% → 52%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CHAR 93.7%6.3% TX SOU

Charlotte wins

3-0

52.0%

3-1

30.6%

3-2

11.2%

Texas Southern wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

1.8%

3-2

3.7%

CHAR break %: 50.5% vs this opp
TX SOU break %: 38.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
TX SOU serverAce+14.6%
Texas Southern ace on Chloe Maughan
Set 2 · CHAR 23-25 TX SOU · TX SOU 37% → 52%
02
Keagan St. JuniousKill+11.2%
Kill by Keagan St. Junious (set by Chloe Maughan)
Set 2 · CHAR 23-24 TX SOU · TX SOU 26% → 37%
03
TX SOU serverAce+7.1%
Texas Southern ace on Erin Lehman
Set 2 · CHAR 20-22 TX SOU · TX SOU 31% → 38%
04
Emory HarperAttack error+7.0%
Attack error by Emory Harper
Set 2 · CHAR 23-22 TX SOU · CHAR 73% → 80%
05
Sofia LocadiaKill+6.7%
Kill by Sofia Locadia (set by Harper Hall)
Set 2 · CHAR 22-22 TX SOU · CHAR 66% → 73%
06
Lacey KusnierKill+6.4%
Kill by Lacey Kusnier (set by Kadence Davison)
Set 3 · CHAR 18-22 TX SOU · TX SOU 85% → 91%
07
Lauren BattleKill+6.3%
Kill by Lauren Battle (set by Keagan St. Junious)
Set 3 · CHAR 12-16 TX SOU · TX SOU 72% → 79%
08
Emory HarperKill+6.3%
Kill by Emory Harper (set by Kadence Davison)
Set 3 · CHAR 17-21 TX SOU · TX SOU 82% → 88%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Charlotteaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Mariam MushkudianiOH	3	16	7	29	.310	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	16.5
19Sofia LocadiaMB	3	6	1	14	.357	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
8Milan CannonMB	3	4	2	15	.133	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
3Harper HallS	3	1	1	7	.000	25	0	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
7Elena KovacevicOH	2	3	2	14	.071	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Clara BrileyOH	2	1	5	16	-.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
18Gia McGrewOH	3	2	3	15	-.067	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
16Kennedy EarlsL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	2	1	6	1	0	0	0	2
9Chloe MaughanL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	2	1	0	17	1	0	0	0	1
4Erin LehmanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	0	1
6Cassidy FlakesMB	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
10Sara MarinkovicOH	1	0	2	2	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Milena LopezS	1	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	24	118	.085	33	4	2	38	4	1	8	5	60

Texas Southernhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Lauren BattleOH	3	12	3	26	.346	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	12
6Ava HoustonMB	3	6	4	17	.118	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	2.5	8.5
2Lacey KusnierOH	3	8	2	13	.462	1	0	1	8	2	0	0	0	8
20Aaliyah BrownMB	3	3	1	8	.250	1	0	0	2	0	1	6	4	7
21Aliyah Spencer	3	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
11Ava RayS	3	0	1	7	-.143	18	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
10Emory HarperOPP	3	7	3	15	.267	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
1Keagan St. JuniousL/DS	3	1	0	3	.333	2	2	1	12	1	0	0	0	3
16Kadence DavisonS	3	0	0	0	–	17	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	1
4Selana MoralesOH	2	3	2	11	.091	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
17Lauanna PinoL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	17	103	.233	39	4	3	42	4	1	16	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 CHAR · TX SOU 4

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 CHARTX SOU 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 8 CHARTX SOU 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 CHARTX SOU 4

Bars above the line = Texas Southern leads, below = Charlotte leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Charlotte

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%6/16	67%10/15
2	46%6/13	40%4/10
3	60%6/10	33%3/9
4	43%6/14	25%2/8
5	38%5/13	33%3/9
6	50%4/8	50%5/10
All	45%33/74	44%27/61

Texas Southern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	35%6/17	62%8/13
2	75%6/8	57%8/14
3	75%6/8	50%6/12
4	75%6/8	40%4/10
5	55%6/11	57%8/14
6	44%4/9	64%7/11
All	56%34/61	55%41/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	CHAR-TX SOU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Harper Hall		+0.8
2	0-2	TX SOU	TX SOU	Bad set	Elena Kovacevic		+0.9
3	1-2	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+0.7
4	2-2	CHAR	CHAR	Attack err	Ava Houston		+0.8
5	2-3	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Ava Ray	+0.7
6	2-4	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Milan Cannon	blk Aaliyah Brown	+1.0
7	3-4	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Elena Kovacevic	set Chloe Maughan	+0.7
8	3-5	CHAR	TX SOU	Attack err	Mariam Mushkudiani		+0.9
9	4-5	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+0.7
10	4-6	CHAR	TX SOU×3	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+0.9
11	4-7	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Bad set	Harper Hall		+1.2
12	4-8	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Team	+1.3
13	5-8	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+0.9
14	5-9	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+1.1
15	5-10	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Clara Briley	blk Emory Harper, Aliyah Spencer	+1.4
16	6-10	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Sofia Locadia	set Harper Hall	+0.9
17	7-10	CHAR	CHAR	Kill	Sofia Locadia	set Harper Hall	+1.2
18	7-11	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Emory Harper	set Kadence Davison	+1.2
19	8-11	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Elena Kovacevic	set Harper Hall	+0.9
20	9-11	CHAR	CHAR	Attack err	Emory Harper	blk Elena Kovacevic, Milan Cannon	+1.2
21	9-12	CHAR	TX SOU×4	Serve err	CHAR server		+1.2
22	9-13	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Attack err	Elena Kovacevic	blk Ava Houston, Aaliyah Brown	+1.6
23	9-14	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Attack err	Elena Kovacevic		+1.6
24	9-15	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Attack err	Clara Briley		+1.5
25	10-15	TX SOU	CHAR	Attack err	Ava Ray		+0.8
26	11-15	CHAR	CHAR	Attack err	Ava Houston	blk Mariam Mushkudiani, Milan Cannon	+1.2
27	11-16	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Selana Morales	set Ava Ray	+1.3
28	12-16	TX SOU	CHAR×3	Kill	Gia McGrew	set Harper Hall	+0.9
29	13-16	CHAR	CHAR×3	Ace	CHAR server	aced Team	+1.3
30	14-16	CHAR	CHAR×3	Ace	CHAR server	aced Keagan St. Junious	+1.5
31	14-17	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Aaliyah Brown	set Ava Ray	+1.6
32	14-18	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Mariam Mushkudiani		+1.9
33	15-18	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Milan Cannon	set Harper Hall	+1.1
34	15-19	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+1.6
35	16-19	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Sofia Locadia	set Harper Hall	+1.1
36	16-20	CHAR	TX SOU×4	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+1.7
37	16-21	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Attack err	Clara Briley		+1.7
38	16-22	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Attack err	Sara Marinkovic	blk Aliyah Spencer, Emory Harper	+1.2
39	16-23	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Attack err	Sara Marinkovic		+0.7
40	17-23	TX SOU	CHAR	Serve err	TX SOU server		+0.2
41	18-23	CHAR	CHAR	Kill	Gia McGrew	set Harper Hall	+0.4
42	18-24	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Selana Morales	set Kadence Davison	+0.6
43	19-24	TX SOU	CHAR	Attack err	Selana Morales	blk Sofia Locadia, Harper Hall	+0.1
44	19-25	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Emory Harper	set Aaliyah Brown	+0.3
Set 2
1	0-1	CHAR	TX SOU	Attack err	Mariam Mushkudiani		+1.6
2	0-2	TX SOU	TX SOU	Kill	Aaliyah Brown	set Ava Ray	+2.3
3	1-2	TX SOU	CHAR	Attack err	Lauren Battle	blk Milan Cannon, Clara Briley	+1.6
4	1-3	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Ava Ray	+1.9
5	1-4	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Mariam Mushkudiani		+2.6
6	2-4	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+1.8
7	3-4	CHAR	CHAR	Ace	CHAR server	aced Lacey Kusnier	+2.2
8	3-5	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Ava Ray	+2.1
9	4-5	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+1.8
10	5-5	CHAR	CHAR	Ace	CHAR server	aced Lacey Kusnier	+2.1
11	5-6	CHAR	TX SOU×3	Kill	Emory Harper	set Kadence Davison	+2.0
12	5-7	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Selana Morales	set Keagan St. Junious	+2.7
13	5-8	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Emory Harper	set Kadence Davison	+3.0
14	6-8	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Sofia Locadia	set Harper Hall	+2.1
15	6-9	CHAR	TX SOU×3	Serve err	CHAR server		+2.6
16	6-10	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+3.4
17	6-11	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Clara Briley		+3.4
18	7-11	TX SOU	CHAR×3	Kill	Clara Briley	set Harper Hall	+2.1
19	8-11	CHAR	CHAR×3	Kill	Milan Cannon	set Harper Hall	+2.9
20	9-11	CHAR	CHAR×3	Attack err	Selana Morales		+2.9
21	9-12	CHAR	TX SOU	Attack err	Clara Briley	blk Aaliyah Brown, Emory Harper	+2.9
22	9-13	TX SOU	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+3.7
23	10-13	TX SOU	CHAR×8	Kill	Harper Hall	set Erin Lehman	+2.4
24	11-13	CHAR	CHAR×8	Kill	Milan Cannon	set Harper Hall	+3.1
25	12-13	CHAR	CHAR×8	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+3.2
26	13-13	CHAR	CHAR×8	Kill	Milan Cannon	set Harper Hall	+3.0
27	14-13	CHAR	CHAR×8	Attack err	Ava Houston		+2.8
28	15-13	CHAR	CHAR×8	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+2.4
29	16-13	CHAR	CHAR×8	Attack err	Aaliyah Brown		+2.0
30	17-13	CHAR	CHAR×8	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+1.5
31	17-14	CHAR	TX SOU×3	Kill	Ava Houston	set Lacey Kusnier	+1.1
32	17-15	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Mariam Mushkudiani	blk Aaliyah Brown, Ava Houston	+1.9
33	17-16	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Mariam Mushkudiani	blk Aaliyah Brown, Ava Houston	+2.7
34	18-16	TX SOU	CHAR	Serve err	TX SOU server		+2.3
35	18-17	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Aaliyah Brown	set Ava Ray	+2.4
36	18-18	TX SOU	TX SOU	Bad set	Mariam Mushkudiani		+3.9
37	19-18	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+3.1
38	19-19	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Chloe Maughan	+3.5
39	20-19	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+3.5
40	20-20	CHAR	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Kadence Davison	+3.9
41	20-21	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Kadence Davison	+6.2
42	20-22	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Erin Lehman	+7.1
43	21-22	TX SOU	CHAR×3	Kill	Sofia Locadia	set Harper Hall	+4.3
44	22-22	CHAR	CHAR×3	Kill	Sofia Locadia	set Harper Hall	+6.7
45	23-22	CHAR	CHAR×3	Attack err	Emory Harper		+7.0
46	23-23	CHAR	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Kadence Davison	+5.7
47	23-24	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Keagan St. Junious	set Chloe Maughan	+11.2
48	23-25	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Chloe Maughan	+14.6
Set 3
1	0-1	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Milan Cannon		+3.0
2	1-1	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Harper Hall	+2.2
3	1-2	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+2.5
4	1-3	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Gia McGrew		+3.5
5	2-3	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Milena Lopez	+2.5
6	2-4	CHAR	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Ava Ray	+3.0
7	2-5	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Attack err	Sofia Locadia		+4.1
8	2-6	TX SOU	TX SOU×3	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Ava Ray	+4.4
9	3-6	TX SOU	CHAR	Attack err	Lauren Battle		+2.9
10	3-7	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Aliyah Spencer	set Ava Ray	+3.8
11	3-8	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Cassidy Flakes		+4.8
12	4-8	TX SOU	CHAR	Bad set	Emory Harper		+3.0
13	4-9	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Emory Harper	set Kadence Davison	+4.0
14	5-9	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Cassidy Flakes	set Milena Lopez	+3.1
15	6-9	CHAR	CHAR	Bad set	Kadence Davison		+4.1
16	6-10	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Kadence Davison	+4.2
17	7-10	TX SOU	CHAR×3	Serve err	TX SOU server		+3.3
18	8-10	CHAR	CHAR×3	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Milena Lopez	+4.2
19	9-10	CHAR	CHAR×3	Attack err	Lacey Kusnier		+4.2
20	9-11	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Kadence Davison	+4.0
21	9-12	TX SOU	TX SOU	Attack err	Mariam Mushkudiani		+5.4
22	10-12	TX SOU	CHAR×3	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Milena Lopez	+3.6
23	11-12	CHAR	CHAR×3	Attack err	Ava Houston		+4.5
24	12-12	CHAR	CHAR×3	Attack err	Lacey Kusnier		+4.3
25	12-13	CHAR	TX SOU×4	Attack err	Gia McGrew		+4.1
26	12-14	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Attack err	Gia McGrew	blk Ava Houston, Aaliyah Brown	+5.7
27	12-15	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Kill	Ava Houston	set Ava Ray	+6.2
28	12-16	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Keagan St. Junious	+6.3
29	13-16	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Chloe Maughan	+3.8
30	13-17	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Ava Ray	+5.4
31	13-18	TX SOU	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Ava Ray	+6.1
32	14-18	TX SOU	CHAR	Kill	Mariam Mushkudiani	set Milena Lopez	+3.3
33	15-18	CHAR	CHAR	Attack err	Lauren Battle		+5.0
34	15-19	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Lauren Battle	set Ava Ray	+5.9
35	15-20	TX SOU	TX SOU	Bad set	Milena Lopez		+6.2
36	16-20	TX SOU	CHAR	Attack err	Emory Harper		+3.0
37	17-20	CHAR	CHAR	Kill	Elena Kovacevic	set Milena Lopez	+5.0
38	17-21	CHAR	TX SOU	Kill	Emory Harper	set Kadence Davison	+6.3
39	18-21	TX SOU	CHAR	Attack err	Aliyah Spencer	blk Sofia Locadia	+3.7
40	18-22	CHAR	TX SOU×4	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Kadence Davison	+6.4
41	18-23	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Kill	Emory Harper	set Kadence Davison	+5.4
42	18-24	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Kill	Lacey Kusnier	set Kadence Davison	+2.7
43	18-25	TX SOU	TX SOU×4	Ace	TX SOU server	aced Kennedy Earls	+0.7

Score shown after each rally, Charlotte first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.