CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 21, 2026
3:1

Louisville def. Texas A&M 31

(25-20, 25-23, 20-25, 25-21)
Set1234Sets
LOUIS252520253
TX A&M202325211

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TX A&M above 50 · LOUIS below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100TX A&MLOUISBiggest swing +5.8% LOUIS · S2 25-23rally 184 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.8% to Louisville — set 2, LOUIS 25-23 TX A&M. Kill by Hannah Sherman (set by Chloe Meester). TX A&M win probability 11%5%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LOUIS 74.8%25.2% TX A&M

Louisville wins

3-0
26.9%
3-1
28.6%
3-2
19.3%

Texas A&M wins

3-0
4.5%
3-1
8.6%
3-2
12.1%
LOUIS break %
43.4% vs this opp
TX A&M break %
38.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01

    Kill by Hannah Sherman (set by Chloe Meester)

    Set 2 · LOUIS 25-23 TX A&M · LOUIS 89%95%

  2. 02
    Kaia CastleAttack error+4.4%

    Kaia Castle stuffed by Hannah Sherman & Chloe Meester

    Set 2 · LOUIS 24-23 TX A&M · LOUIS 85%89%

  3. 03
    Kirra MusgroveAttack error+4.4%

    Attack error by Kirra Musgrove

    Set 2 · LOUIS 22-21 TX A&M · LOUIS 83%88%

  4. 04
    Hannah ShermanAttack error+4.2%

    Attack error by Hannah Sherman

    Set 4 · LOUIS 17-17 TX A&M · TX A&M 11%15%

  5. 05
    Natalie RingKill+4.2%

    Kill by Natalie Ring (set by Kirra Musgrove)

    Set 2 · LOUIS 20-21 TX A&M · TX A&M 15%19%

  6. 06
    Kaia CastleAttack error+4.1%

    Kaia Castle stuffed by Hannah Sherman

    Set 4 · LOUIS 19-17 TX A&M · LOUIS 88%92%

  7. 07

    Kill by Nayelis Cabello (set by Chloe Chicoine)

    Set 2 · LOUIS 23-22 TX A&M · LOUIS 85%88%

  8. 08

    Kill by Chloe Chicoine (set by Payton Petersen)

    Set 2 · LOUIS 20-19 TX A&M · LOUIS 84%87%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419338.42140190111.520.5
411934.0591133202113
411420.3500122002113
4538.250000002449
46621.00000020031.57.5
44011.3644502900004
41011.0004022400001
4000101900000
4000100610000
2000000100000
Team totals5725133.24156211654312995
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411954.0371115104214
410425.24001410052.513.5
410321.3330012006313
46416.125000000428
47325.160001400007
4011-1.0002300600000
4419.333190120010.54.5
40001201800002
4000200200000
4000003100000
Team totals4825151.152464114120201089

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 LOUIS · TX A&M 4

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 LOUISTX A&M 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 3 LOUISTX A&M 4

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 LOUISTX A&M 3

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 3 LOUISTX A&M 3

Bars above the line = Texas A&M leads, below = Louisville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Louisville

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%12/18
33%5/15
2
63%12/19
29%5/17
3
73%11/15
37%7/19
4
82%9/11
50%9/18
5
82%9/11
18%2/11
6
50%8/16
43%6/14
All
68%61/90
36%34/94

Texas A&M

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%12/15
9%1/11
2
57%12/21
45%10/22
3
61%11/18
29%5/17
4
64%9/14
23%3/13
5
67%8/12
10%1/10
6
57%8/14
53%9/17
All
64%60/94
32%29/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

184 rallies

Rally log

#LOUIS-TX A&MSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1LOUISTX A&M×3Serve errLOUIS server+1.5
20-2TX A&MTX A&M×3Attack errKalyssa Blackshearblk Taryn Morris, Eliza Sharp+2.3
30-3TX A&MTX A&M×3Attack errKalyssa Blackshear+2.3
41-3TX A&MLOUIS×3KillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+1.4
52-3LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errLily Nicholson+2.2
63-3LOUISLOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Payton Petersen+2.2
73-4LOUISTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Lily Nicholson+1.6
84-4TX A&MLOUISServe errTX A&M server+1.5
94-5LOUISTX A&MServe errLOUIS server+1.7
105-5TX A&MLOUISAttack errMegan Fitchblk Kalyssa Blackshear, Brooke Bultema+1.6
115-6LOUISTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Kirra Musgrove+1.7
125-7TX A&MTX A&MKillMegan Fitchset Kirra Musgrove+2.6
136-7TX A&MLOUISServe errTX A&M server+1.6
146-8LOUISTX A&MKillKirra Musgroveset Addi Applegate+1.9
157-8TX A&MLOUISKillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+1.7
168-8LOUISLOUISAceLOUIS serveraced Natalie Ring+2.5
178-9LOUISTX A&MAttack errChloe Meester+1.9
189-9TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+1.8
199-10LOUISTX A&M×3Serve errLOUIS server+1.9
209-11TX A&MTX A&M×3Attack errChloe Meesterblk Eliza Sharp, Natalie Ring+2.9
219-12TX A&MTX A&M×3AceTX A&M serveraced Chloe Meester+2.9
2210-12TX A&MLOUISKillHannah Shermanset Nayelis Cabello+1.7
2310-13LOUISTX A&MServe errLOUIS server+2.1
2411-13TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+1.8
2511-14LOUISTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Kirra Musgrove+2.2
2612-14TX A&MLOUIS×4KillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+1.8
2713-14LOUISLOUIS×4Attack errMegan Fitch+3.0
2814-14LOUISLOUIS×4KillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+3.1
2915-14LOUISLOUIS×4Attack errNatalie Ring+3.1
3015-15LOUISTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Kirra Musgrove+2.2
3116-15TX A&MLOUISKillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+2.2
3216-16LOUISTX A&MKillKaia Castleset Kirra Musgrove+2.3
3317-16TX A&MLOUIS×3KillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+2.4
3418-16LOUISLOUIS×3KillNayelis Cabelloset Hannah Kenny+3.2
3519-16LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errMegan Fitch+2.7
3619-17LOUISTX A&MKillKaia Castleset Lily Nicholson+1.5
3720-17TX A&MLOUISAttack errNatalie Ring+1.9
3820-18LOUISTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Lily Nicholson+1.5
3921-18TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+2.0
4022-18LOUISLOUISAceLOUIS serveraced Team+1.9
4122-19LOUISTX A&MServe errLOUIS server+0.8
4223-19TX A&MLOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+1.2
4323-20LOUISTX A&MAttack errKalyssa Blackshearblk Eliza Sharp, Natalie Ring+0.6
4424-20TX A&MLOUISKillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+1.1
4525-20LOUISLOUISAttack errEliza Sharpblk Chloe Chicoine, Brooke Bultema+0.4
Set 2
11-0TX A&MLOUISKillHannah Shermanset Nayelis Cabello+1.1
21-1LOUISTX A&MKillTaryn Morrisset Lily Nicholson+1.1
32-1TX A&MLOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+1.1
42-2LOUISTX A&MAttack errBrooke Bultema+1.1
53-2TX A&MLOUISAttack errNatalie Ring+1.1
64-2LOUISLOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+1.5
74-3LOUISTX A&MServe errLOUIS server+1.1
85-3TX A&MLOUISKillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+1.1
95-4LOUISTX A&MServe errLOUIS server+1.1
106-4TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+1.1
116-5LOUISTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Kirra Musgrove+1.1
127-5TX A&MLOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+1.1
137-6LOUISTX A&MKillTaryn Morrisset Lily Nicholson+1.1
148-6TX A&MLOUISKillHannah Shermanset Nayelis Cabello+1.2
158-7LOUISTX A&MKillTaryn Morrisset Lily Nicholson+1.2
168-8TX A&MTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Lily Nicholson+1.9
179-8TX A&MLOUISKillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+1.3
1810-8LOUISLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+1.8
1910-9LOUISTX A&MServe errLOUIS server+1.2
2010-10TX A&MTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Kirra Musgrove+2.0
2111-10TX A&MLOUIS×3KillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+1.4
2212-10LOUISLOUIS×3KillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+1.9
2313-10LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errEliza Sharp+1.7
2413-11LOUISTX A&MKillKirra Musgroveset Natalie Ring+1.1
2513-12TX A&MTX A&MKillMegan Fitchset Gabi Rodriguez+1.9
2614-12TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+1.4
2714-13LOUISTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Kirra Musgrove+1.4
2815-13TX A&MLOUISServe errTX A&M server+1.5
2916-13LOUISLOUISAttack errKaia Castle+1.9
3016-14LOUISTX A&M×4Attack errChloe Meester+1.2
3116-15TX A&MTX A&M×4Attack errHannah Sherman+2.1
3216-16TX A&MTX A&M×4KillTaryn Morrisset Kirra Musgrove+2.6
3316-17TX A&MTX A&M×4KillTaryn Morrisset Kirra Musgrove+3.0
3417-17TX A&MLOUISServe errTX A&M server+2.0
3517-18LOUISTX A&MKillTaryn Morrisset Lily Nicholson+2.3
3618-18TX A&MLOUISAttack errNatalie Ringblk Kalyssa Blackshear, Hannah Sherman+2.1
3718-19LOUISTX A&MAttack errKalyssa Blackshearblk Kaia Castle, Natalie Ring+2.5
3819-19TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+2.3
3920-19LOUISLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Payton Petersen+3.5
4020-20LOUISTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Lily Nicholson+2.4
4120-21TX A&MTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Kirra Musgrove+4.2
4221-21TX A&MLOUISServe errTX A&M server+2.7
4322-21LOUISLOUISAttack errKirra Musgrove+4.4
4422-22LOUISTX A&MAttack errChloe Meesterblk Kirra Musgrove, Eliza Sharp+3.0
4523-22TX A&MLOUISKillNayelis Cabelloset Chloe Chicoine+3.5
4623-23LOUISTX A&MKillMegan Fitchset Kirra Musgrove+3.5
4724-23TX A&MLOUISAttack errKaia Castleblk Hannah Sherman, Chloe Meester+4.4
4825-23LOUISLOUISKillHannah Shermanset Chloe Meester+5.8
Set 3
10-1LOUISTX A&MAttack errKalyssa Blackshear+0.6
20-2TX A&MTX A&MAceTX A&M serveraced Chloe Meester+0.9
31-2TX A&MLOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Nayelis Cabello+0.6
41-3LOUISTX A&M×3Serve errLOUIS server+0.7
51-4TX A&MTX A&M×3KillEliza Sharpset Kirra Musgrove+1.0
61-5TX A&MTX A&M×3AceTX A&M serveraced Team+1.0
72-5TX A&MLOUISServe errTX A&M server+0.6
82-6LOUISTX A&MKillKirra Musgroveset Nayelis Cabello+0.7
92-7TX A&MTX A&MAceTX A&M serveraced Kamden Schrand+1.0
103-7TX A&MLOUISKillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+0.5
113-8LOUISTX A&MKillMegan Fitchset Kirra Musgrove+0.7
124-8TX A&MLOUISKillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+0.5
135-8LOUISLOUISKillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+0.9
145-9LOUISTX A&MAttack errChloe Meester+0.8
156-9TX A&MLOUISKillBrooke Bultemaset Nayelis Cabello+0.6
166-10LOUISTX A&MKillKaia Castleset Lily Nicholson+0.8
177-10TX A&MLOUIS×3Serve errTX A&M server+0.6
188-10LOUISLOUIS×3KillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+1.0
199-10LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errNatalie Ring+1.1
209-11LOUISTX A&MKillTaryn Morrisset Lily Nicholson+0.9
219-12TX A&MTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Lily Nicholson+1.2
2210-12TX A&MLOUISAttack errNatalie Ring+0.7
2311-12LOUISLOUISAttack errEliza Sharpblk Hannah Sherman+1.2
2411-13LOUISTX A&MKillTaryn Morrisset Lily Nicholson+0.9
2511-14TX A&MTX A&MAttack errChloe Chicoine+1.3
2612-14TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.8
2712-15LOUISTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Kirra Musgrove+1.0
2812-16TX A&MTX A&MAttack errBrooke Bultema+1.2
2913-16TX A&MLOUISServe errTX A&M server+0.7
3013-17LOUISTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Kirra Musgrove+0.9
3114-17TX A&MLOUISServe errTX A&M server+0.7
3214-18LOUISTX A&M×3Attack errChloe Meester+0.9
3314-19TX A&MTX A&M×3Attack errBrooke Bultema+1.0
3414-20TX A&MTX A&M×3Attack errChloe Meester+0.7
3515-20TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+0.3
3615-21LOUISTX A&MKillKaia Castleset Lily Nicholson+0.5
3715-22TX A&MTX A&MAttack errChloe Meesterblk Kaia Castle, Taryn Morris+0.4
3816-22TX A&MLOUISKillNayelis Cabelloset Chloe Chicoine+0.1
3916-23LOUISTX A&MKillKaia Castleset Lily Nicholson+0.2
4017-23TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Meesterset Chloe Chicoine+0.0
4117-24LOUISTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Lily Nicholson+0.1
4218-24TX A&MLOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.0
4319-24LOUISLOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+0.1
4420-24LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errNatalie Ring+0.1
4520-25LOUISTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Kirra Musgrove+0.2
Set 4
11-0TX A&MLOUISAttack errNatalie Ring+1.6
21-1LOUISTX A&MAttack errChloe Chicoineblk Taryn Morris, Kaia Castle+1.7
31-2TX A&MTX A&MAttack errBrooke Bultemablk Eliza Sharp, Natalie Ring+2.6
42-2TX A&MLOUISKillKalyssa Blackshearset Chloe Chicoine+1.7
52-3LOUISTX A&MKillTaryn Morrisset Lily Nicholson+1.9
63-3TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+1.8
74-3LOUISLOUISKillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+2.5
84-4LOUISTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Kirra Musgrove+1.8
95-4TX A&MLOUISKillKirra Musgroveset Nayelis Cabello+1.8
105-5LOUISTX A&MServe errLOUIS server+1.9
116-5TX A&MLOUISKillNayelis Cabelloset Payton Petersen+1.8
127-5LOUISLOUISAttack errKaia Castleblk Hannah Sherman, Chloe Meester+2.5
137-6LOUISTX A&M×3KillMegan Fitchset Kirra Musgrove+1.7
147-7TX A&MTX A&M×3KillMegan Fitchset Lily Nicholson+2.8
157-8TX A&MTX A&M×3Attack errKalyssa Blackshearblk Taryn Morris, Kaia Castle+3.1
168-8TX A&MLOUISKillHannah Shermanset Nayelis Cabello+2.1
179-8LOUISLOUISAttack errTaryn Morrisblk Kalyssa Blackshear, Hannah Sherman+2.9
189-9LOUISTX A&MKillTaryn Morrisset Lily Nicholson+2.1
1910-9TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+2.1
2010-10LOUISTX A&MKillKaia Castleset Lily Nicholson+2.2
2110-11TX A&MTX A&MBad setNayelis Cabello+3.4
2211-11TX A&MLOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+2.3
2312-11LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errTaryn Morris+3.3
2413-11LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errTaryn Morris+3.1
2513-12LOUISTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Lily Nicholson+2.1
2614-12TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Payton Petersen+2.2
2714-13LOUISTX A&MKillKirra Musgroveset Addi Applegate+2.1
2815-13TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+2.3
2916-13LOUISLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+2.9
3016-14LOUISTX A&MKillEliza Sharpset Kirra Musgrove+1.8
3117-14TX A&MLOUISServe errTX A&M server+2.0
3217-15LOUISTX A&M×3Attack errHannah Sherman+1.8
3317-16TX A&MTX A&M×3Attack errChloe Meester+3.4
3417-17TX A&MTX A&M×3Attack errHannah Sherman+4.2
3518-17TX A&MLOUIS×3KillChloe Meesterset Nayelis Cabello+3.0
3619-17LOUISLOUIS×3Attack errKaia Castleblk Hannah Sherman+4.1
3720-17LOUISLOUIS×3KillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+3.4
3820-18LOUISTX A&MKillMegan Fitchset Lily Nicholson+1.8
3921-18TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Nayelis Cabello+2.4
4022-18LOUISLOUISAttack errNatalie Ring+2.3
4122-19LOUISTX A&MServe errLOUIS server+0.9
4222-20TX A&MTX A&MAttack errChloe Chicoineblk Taryn Morris, Eliza Sharp+2.4
4323-20TX A&MLOUISKillChloe Chicoineset Kamden Schrand+2.6
4424-20LOUISLOUISAttack errTaryn Morrisblk Chloe Chicoine+1.9
4524-21LOUISTX A&MKillNatalie Ringset Lily Nicholson+0.4
4625-21TX A&MLOUISServe errTX A&M server+0.9

Score shown after each rally, Louisville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.