FinalFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on ESPN+

CSU Bakersfield def. UC Riverside 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: CSU Bakersfield 88.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

CSU Bakersfield beat visiting UC Riverside 3-0 (26-24, 25-22, 25-16) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. CSU Bakersfield's Jordyn Waite-Ward led with 12 kills, and Analiese Gagliano added 14 digs.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set123Sets
UC RIV2422160
CSUBAK2625253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

CSU Bakersfield won all three sets by nine or fewer.

Win probability never moved more than 5.1 points on one rally; UC Riverside topped out at 21% in Set 1. Pre-match, RallyIQ had CSU Bakersfield at 88%.

UC RiversideCSU Bakersfield
  • Break %+11.8 pts
    34.946.7

    Points won on own serve: 35 of 75 vs 22 of 63. UC Riverside sided out 53.3% of the time.

CSU Bakersfield above 50UC Riverside belowMax swing 5.1%

UC RiversideCSU Bakersfield

Hitting
UC Riverside .125·CSU Bakersfield .200
Aces
UC Riverside 3·CSU Bakersfield 12
Serve err
UC Riverside 7·CSU Bakersfield 11
Blocks
UC Riverside 10·CSU Bakersfield 9.51 BS · 18 BA vs 1 BS · 17 BA
Digs
UC Riverside 55·CSU Bakersfield 47

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

CSU Bakersfield above 50 · UC Riverside below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+5.1% UC RIVrally 138 · set 3

Biggest swing: 5.1% to UC Riverside — set 1, UC RIV 24-24 CSUBAK. Jordyn Waite-Ward stuffed by Casi Doll & Evelyn Hendrix. CSUBAK win probability 91% → 86%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UC RIV 11.9%88.1% CSUBAK

UC Riverside wins

3-0
1.7%
3-1
3.7%
3-2
6.5%

CSU Bakersfield wins

3-0
41.4%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.1%
UC RIV break %
39.0% vs this opp
CSUBAK break %
48.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Jordyn Waite-Ward stuffed by Casi Doll & Evelyn Hendrix

    Set 1 · UC RIV 24-24 CSUBAK · UC RIV 9% → 14%

  2. 02

    Malia Tanksley stuffed by Anna Bacchin & Leylah Duran

    Set 1 · UC RIV 24-26 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 90% → 94%

  3. 03
    Suelen LimaKill+4.0%

    Kill by Suelen Lima (set by Luiza Da Cruz)

    Set 1 · UC RIV 24-25 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 86% → 90%

  4. 04
    Casi DollKill+2.8%

    Kill by Casi Doll (set by Elena Kasavica)

    Set 1 · UC RIV 19-16 CSUBAK · UC RIV 18% → 21%

  5. 05
    Anna BacchinKill+2.8%

    Kill by Anna Bacchin (set by Samantha Capinpin)

    Set 1 · UC RIV 19-19 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 83% → 86%

  6. 06
    Casi DollAttack error+2.7%

    Attack error by Casi Doll

    Set 1 · UC RIV 19-20 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 86% → 88%

  7. 07
    CSU BakersfieldAce+2.6%

    CSU Bakersfield ace on McKenna Giles

    Set 1 · UC RIV 20-22 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 89% → 91%

  8. 08
    Defne YanikKill+2.6%

    Kill by Defne Yanik (set by Luiza Da Cruz)

    Set 1 · UC RIV 22-24 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 90% → 93%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
38321.23810040052.510.5
37424.12511140031.59.5
37531.065101430007
3319.22200000052.55.5
3308.375000000425
3001.0001803130111.51.5
3001.000111600001
3000–5002060000
2249-.222000000002
1000–311400001
Team totals3017104.125303755121181062
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312424.33300010010.512.5
35313.15405220031.511.5
38325.2001004104210
33219.053022400005
3115.00000010052.53.5
3001.0001721600002
38425.1600001014311
31011.0001623800003
31011.000011620002
3000–3021400000
11011.000000000001
Team totals4017115.2003712114731179.576

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UC Riverside vs CSU Bakersfield

Season series · CSU Bakersfield leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 UC RIV · CSUBAK 4

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 6 UC RIVCSUBAK 4

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 UC RIVCSUBAK 3

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 4 UC RIVCSUBAK 4

Bars above the line = CSU Bakersfield leads, below = UC Riverside leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UC Riverside

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%8/16
25%2/8
2
89%8/9
0%0/8
3
47%7/15
58%11/19
4
67%6/9
30%3/10
5
43%6/14
50%6/12
6
42%5/12
0%0/6
All
53%40/75
35%22/63

CSU Bakersfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
89%8/9
53%8/15
2
53%8/15
33%4/12
3
54%7/13
46%6/13
4
54%7/13
36%4/11
5
86%6/7
60%9/15
6
83%5/6
44%4/9
All
65%41/63
47%35/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

138 rallies

#UC RIV-CSUBAKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CSUBAKUC RIVKillAndrea Brewerset Elena Kasavica+1.0
21-1UC RIVCSUBAKServe errElena Kasavica+0.9
32-1CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.0
43-1UC RIVUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Malia Tanksley+1.5
53-2UC RIVCSUBAK×3KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+1.0
63-3CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+1.3
73-4CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+1.2
84-4CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.0
95-4UC RIVUC RIVBlockedSuelen Limablk Casi Doll, Zeynep Belgutay+1.4
105-5UC RIVCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.0
115-6CSUBAKCSUBAKKillAna Franca Benjaminset Samantha Capinpin+1.3
126-6CSUBAKUC RIVAttack errLeylah Duran+1.1
136-7UC RIVCSUBAKBlockedCasi Dollblk Anna Bacchin, Leylah Duran+1.0
147-7CSUBAKUC RIVKillZeynep Belgutayset Elena Kasavica+1.1
157-8UC RIVCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+1.0
167-9CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errAndrea Brewer+1.2
177-10CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errAndrea Brewer+1.0
188-10CSUBAKUC RIVKillAndrea Brewerset Elena Kasavica+0.8
199-10UC RIVUC RIVKillAndrea Brewerset Elena Kasavica+1.3
209-11UC RIVCSUBAKKillBoden Liljedahlset Analiese Gagliano+1.0
219-12CSUBAKCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Analiese Gagliano+1.1
2210-12CSUBAKUC RIVKillAndrea Brewerset Elena Kasavica+0.8
2310-13UC RIVCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.9
2411-13CSUBAKUC RIV×6KillEvelyn Hendrixset Elena Kasavica+0.9
2512-13UC RIVUC RIV×6BlockedJordyn Waite-Wardblk Casi Doll, Evelyn Hendrix+1.4
2613-13UC RIVUC RIV×6KillCasi Dollset McKenna Giles+1.8
2714-13UC RIVUC RIV×6BlockedLeylah Duranblk Evelyn Hendrix, Malia Tanksley+2.1
2815-13UC RIVUC RIV×6KillCasi Dollset McKenna Giles+2.3
2916-13UC RIVUC RIV×6BlockedSuelen Limablk Evelyn Hendrix, Malia Tanksley+2.4
3016-14UC RIVCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+1.5
3116-15CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced McKenna Giles+2.2
3217-15CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield+2.1
3317-16UC RIVCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+1.7
3418-16CSUBAKUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+2.2
3519-16UC RIVUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Elena Kasavica+2.8
3619-17UC RIVCSUBAK×4Serve errMisu Nguyen+1.6
3719-18CSUBAKCSUBAK×4BlockedCasi Dollblk Anna Bacchin, Defne Yanik+2.6
3819-19CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+2.8
3919-20CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Attack errCasi Doll+2.7
4020-20CSUBAKUC RIVKillZeynep Belgutayset Elena Kasavica+2.2
4120-21UC RIVCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+2.3
4220-22CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced McKenna Giles+2.6
4321-22CSUBAKUC RIVAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+1.7
4421-23UC RIVCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+2.2
4522-23CSUBAKUC RIVBlockedAna Franca Benjaminblk Elena Kasavica, Evelyn Hendrix+1.7
4622-24UC RIVCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+2.6
4723-24CSUBAKUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+1.6
4824-24UC RIVUC RIVBlockedJordyn Waite-Wardblk Casi Doll, Evelyn Hendrix+5.1
4924-25UC RIVCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+4.0
5024-26CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedMalia Tanksleyblk Anna Bacchin, Leylah Duran+4.3
Set 2
11-0UC RIVUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+0.9
21-1UC RIVCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.6
31-2CSUBAKCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.8
42-2CSUBAKUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Casi Doll+0.6
52-3UC RIVCSUBAKServe errAndrea Brewer+0.6
63-3CSUBAKUC RIVKillEvelyn Hendrixset Elena Kasavica+0.7
73-4UC RIVCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+0.6
83-5CSUBAKCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+0.7
94-5CSUBAKUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+0.6
104-6UC RIVCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+0.6
115-6CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.6
125-7UC RIVCSUBAKBlockedAndrea Brewerblk Anna Bacchin, Defne Yanik+0.6
136-7CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.6
146-8UC RIVCSUBAKKillAna Franca Benjaminset Luiza Da Cruz+0.6
156-9CSUBAKCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.7
167-9CSUBAKUC RIVKillAndrea Brewerset Elena Kasavica+0.5
177-10UC RIVCSUBAK×3BlockedMalia Tanksleyblk Defne Yanik, Suelen Lima+0.5
187-11CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errAndrea Brewer+0.6
197-12CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.5
208-12CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.3
218-13UC RIVCSUBAKAttack errCasi Doll+0.4
229-13CSUBAKUC RIV×3KillEvelyn Hendrixset Elena Kasavica+0.3
2310-13UC RIVUC RIV×3BlockedAnna Bacchinblk Zeynep Belgutay, Malia Tanksley+0.6
2411-13UC RIVUC RIV×3Attack errSuelen Lima+0.8
2511-14UC RIVCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+0.6
2611-15CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced McKenna Giles+0.7
2712-15CSUBAKUC RIVKillZeynep Belgutayset Elena Kasavica+0.5
2812-16UC RIVCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+0.5
2913-16CSUBAKUC RIVBlockedDefne Yanikblk Elena Kasavica+0.5
3014-16UC RIVUC RIVAceCasi Dollaced Boden Liljedahl+0.8
3114-17UC RIVCSUBAKServe errCasi Doll+0.7
3215-17CSUBAKUC RIVKillAndrea Brewerset McKenna Giles+0.7
3315-18UC RIVCSUBAK×3KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Boden Liljedahl+0.8
3415-19CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.8
3515-20CSUBAKCSUBAK×3BlockedAndrea Brewerblk Defne Yanik, Suelen Lima, Jordyn Waite-Ward+0.5
3616-20CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.3
3716-21UC RIVCSUBAKServe errElena Kasavica+0.4
3817-21CSUBAKUC RIVAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+0.2
3917-22UC RIVCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
4018-22CSUBAKUC RIV×3KillMalia Tanksleyset McKenna Giles+0.2
4119-22UC RIVUC RIV×3KillCasi Dollset Andrea Brewer+0.5
4220-22UC RIVUC RIV×3BlockedAnna Bacchinblk Zeynep Belgutay, Malia Tanksley+0.9
4320-23UC RIVCSUBAKKillSamantha Capinpinset Suelen Lima+1.0
4421-23CSUBAKUC RIVAttack errAna Franca Benjamin+0.6
4522-23UC RIVUC RIVAceMisu Nguyenaced Suelen Lima+1.5
4622-24UC RIVCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Analiese Gagliano+1.8
4722-25CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced Andrea Brewer+1.2
Set 3
10-1CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Andrea Brewer+0.4
20-2CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfield+0.3
30-3CSUBAKCSUBAK×4BlockedEvelyn Hendrixblk Suelen Lima, Defne Yanik+0.3
40-4CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.2
51-4CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.2
61-5UC RIVCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.2
72-5CSUBAKUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Misu Nguyen+0.2
82-6UC RIVCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.2
93-6CSUBAKUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset McKenna Giles+0.2
103-7UC RIVCSUBAKAttack errMadison Pulsipher+0.2
114-7CSUBAKUC RIV×4KillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+0.2
125-7UC RIVUC RIV×4KillMadison Pulsipherset Maya Barron+0.3
136-7UC RIVUC RIV×4Bad setAnaliese Gagliano+0.4
147-7UC RIVUC RIV×4AceMaya Barronaced Boden Liljedahl+0.5
157-8UC RIVCSUBAK×4Serve errMaya Barron+0.3
167-9CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfieldaced McKenna Giles+0.4
177-10CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfield+0.3
187-11CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Andrea Brewer+0.3
198-11CSUBAKUC RIVAttack errAnna Bacchin+0.2
208-12UC RIVCSUBAKKillAna Franca Benjaminset Samantha Capinpin+0.2
218-13CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced McKenna Giles+0.2
229-13CSUBAKUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+0.2
239-14UC RIVCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.2
2410-14CSUBAKUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+0.2
2510-15UC RIVCSUBAKServe errElena Kasavica+0.2
2610-16CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errMalia Tanksley+0.2
2711-16CSUBAKUC RIVKillAndrea Brewerset Elena Kasavica+0.1
2811-17UC RIVCSUBAK×3KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.1
2911-18CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfield+0.1
3011-19CSUBAKCSUBAK×3BlockedMadison Pulsipherblk Suelen Lima, Leylah Duran+0.1
3112-19CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield·
3213-19UC RIVUC RIVBlockedLeylah Duranblk Malia Tanksley, Zeynep Belgutay+0.1
3313-20UC RIVCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+0.1
3413-21CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedMadison Pulsipherblk Anna Bacchin·
3514-21CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield·
3615-21UC RIVUC RIVAttack errAnna Bacchin·
3715-22UC RIVCSUBAK×3KillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin·
3815-23CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errMadison Pulsipher·
3915-24CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfieldaced McKenna Giles·
4016-24CSUBAKUC RIVServe errCSU Bakersfield·
4116-25UC RIVCSUBAKKillNele Broszatset Samantha Capinpin·

Score shown after each rally, UC Riverside first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).