FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayBIG-12

#18TCUTCU

0:3

HomeACC

#6LOUISLouisville

Louisville def. TCU 3–0

(25-23, 25-14, 27-25)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
TCU	23	14	25	0
LOUIS	25	25	27	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

LOUIS above 50 · TCU below

Biggest swing: 2.7% to Louisville — set 1, TCU 23-25 LOUIS. Kill by Kalyssa Blackshear (set by Nayelis Cabello). LOUIS win probability 93% → 95%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TCU 9.8%90.2% LOUIS

TCU wins

3-0

1.3%

3-1

3.0%

3-2

5.5%

Louisville wins

3-0

44.8%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

13.9%

TCU break %: 36.6% vs this opp
LOUIS break %: 46.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kalyssa BlackshearKill+2.7%
Kill by Kalyssa Blackshear (set by Nayelis Cabello)
Set 1 · TCU 23-25 LOUIS · LOUIS 93% → 95%
02
Evan HendrixKill+1.9%
Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer)
Set 1 · TCU 21-22 LOUIS · TCU 7% → 9%
03
Chloe ChicoineKill+1.9%
Kill by Chloe Chicoine (set by Nayelis Cabello)
Set 1 · TCU 21-23 LOUIS · LOUIS 91% → 93%
04
TCU serverAce+1.7%
TCU ace on Hannah Kenny
Set 1 · TCU 8-4 LOUIS · TCU 14% → 16%
05
Jalyn GibsonKill+1.7%
Kill by Jalyn Gibson (set by Alice Volpe)
Set 1 · TCU 18-19 LOUIS · TCU 8% → 9%
06
Becca KelleyKill+1.7%
Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Reese Wilburn)
Set 1 · TCU 23-24 LOUIS · TCU 6% → 7%
07
Kalyssa BlackshearKill+1.6%
Kill by Kalyssa Blackshear (set by Payton Petersen)
Set 1 · TCU 21-24 LOUIS · LOUIS 93% → 95%
08
Brooke BultemaAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Brooke Bultema
Set 1 · TCU 6-2 LOUIS · TCU 14% → 15%

Official NCAA box

Box score

TCUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Reese RobinsMB	3	12	1	17	.647	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12
2Evan HendrixOH	3	9	7	26	.077	1	0	3	7	2	2	1	10
10Kinsley YoungMB	3	8	0	14	.571	0	0	3	2	0	4	2	10
11Becca KelleyOH	3	8	3	17	.294	3	0	2	2	1	1	0.5	8.5
6Reese WilburnS	3	0	0	0	–	16	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
4De'Andrea McMillianMB	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
5Jalyn GibsonOH	3	4	0	18	.222	0	0	0	0	1	3	1.5	5.5
0Alice VolpeL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	0	6	0	0	0	1
17Rosemary ArcherS	3	1	0	1	1.000	16	0	0	5	0	0	0	1
9Lauren MurphyOH	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Mia LeeMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Molly McCarthyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	11	95	.326	39	1	8	26	5	12	6	62

Louisvillehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Chloe ChicoineOH	3	17	4	30	.433	1	1	0	4	0	1	0.5	18.5
24Kalyssa BlackshearOPP	3	17	1	26	.615	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	17
2Chloe MeesterOH	3	11	3	24	.333	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	11
8Nayelis CabelloS	3	4	0	7	.571	36	0	0	18	0	3	1.5	5.5
44Brooke BultemaMB	3	3	2	8	.125	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
4Addison MakunMB	3	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
21Payton PetersenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	3	1	5	0	0	0	3
22Blair ThiebaudS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
6Hannah KennyS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	3	1	0	0	0
3Kamden SchrandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
Team totals		52	11	98	.418	50	5	7	36	1	8	4	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 TCU · LOUIS 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 TCULOUIS 5

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 3 TCULOUIS 6

Set 3

25-27

Longest run 3 TCULOUIS 5

Bars above the line = Louisville leads, below = TCU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

TCU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	33%3/9
2	41%7/17	33%4/12
3	58%7/12	46%6/13
4	78%7/9	22%2/9
5	58%7/12	42%5/12
6	50%5/10	13%1/8
All	54%41/76	33%21/63

Louisville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	36%4/11
2	64%7/11	65%13/20
3	70%7/10	30%3/10
4	54%7/13	42%5/12
5	88%7/8	46%6/13
6	67%6/9	40%4/10
All	67%42/63	46%35/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

139 rallies

Rally log

#	TCU-LOUIS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	LOUIS	TCU×3	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Reese Wilburn	+0.9
2	2-0	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Evan Hendrix	+1.3
3	3-0	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Reese Wilburn	+1.5
4	3-1	TCU	LOUIS	Serve err	TCU server		+0.9
5	4-1	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+1.1
6	4-2	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.9
7	5-2	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+1.1
8	6-2	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Brooke Bultema		+1.6
9	6-3	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.0
10	6-4	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Evan Hendrix	blk Nayelis Cabello, Brooke Bultema	+1.4
11	7-4	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+1.2
12	8-4	TCU	TCU	Ace	TCU server	aced Hannah Kenny	+1.7
13	8-5	TCU	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.0
14	8-6	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Bad set	Rosemary Archer		+1.5
15	8-7	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Attack err	Evan Hendrix	blk Nayelis Cabello, Brooke Bultema	+1.5
16	8-8	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Nayelis Cabello	set Payton Petersen	+1.4
17	8-9	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Attack err	Becca Kelley		+1.3
18	9-9	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+1.0
19	9-10	TCU	LOUIS×4	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.9
20	9-11	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Hannah Kenny	+1.2
21	9-12	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Team	+1.0
22	9-13	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Attack err	Evan Hendrix	blk Nayelis Cabello, Addison Makun	+0.8
23	10-13	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
24	10-14	TCU	LOUIS	Serve err	TCU server		+0.6
25	11-14	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Reese Wilburn	+0.5
26	11-15	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
27	11-16	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Kalyssa Blackshear	+0.6
28	12-16	LOUIS	TCU×4	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+0.3
29	13-16	TCU	TCU×4	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Alice Volpe	+0.7
30	14-16	TCU	TCU×4	Attack err	Addison Makun		+1.1
31	15-16	TCU	TCU×4	Attack err	Chloe Chicoine	blk De'Andrea McMillian, Jalyn Gibson	+1.5
32	15-17	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.1
33	15-18	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Kamden Schrand	+1.3
34	16-18	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.8
35	16-19	TCU	LOUIS	Serve err	TCU server		+0.9
36	17-19	LOUIS	TCU	Bad set	Nayelis Cabello		+0.8
37	18-19	TCU	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Alice Volpe	+1.7
38	18-20	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.4
39	18-21	LOUIS	LOUIS	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Jalyn Gibson	+1.5
40	19-21	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Rosemary Archer	+0.8
41	19-22	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.1
42	20-22	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.8
43	21-22	TCU	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+1.9
44	21-23	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.9
45	21-24	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Payton Petersen	+1.6
46	22-24	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+0.5
47	23-24	TCU	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Reese Wilburn	+1.7
48	23-25	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+2.7
Set 2
1	0-1	TCU	LOUIS×6	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Payton Petersen	+0.5
2	0-2	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Kamden Schrand	+0.6
3	0-3	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+0.5
4	0-4	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Kamden Schrand	+0.4
5	0-5	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
6	0-6	LOUIS	LOUIS×6	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Becca Kelley	+0.3
7	1-6	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.2
8	1-7	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.2
9	2-7	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Becca Kelley	+0.2
10	2-8	TCU	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Hannah Kenny	+0.2
11	2-9	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Attack err	Becca Kelley		+0.2
12	2-10	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
13	2-11	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Becca Kelley	+0.1
14	3-11	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+0.0
15	3-12	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Nayelis Cabello	set Payton Petersen	+0.1
16	4-12	LOUIS	TCU	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
17	4-13	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
18	5-13	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+0.0
19	5-14	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.1
20	5-15	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
21	6-15	LOUIS	TCU	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
22	6-16	TCU	LOUIS	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+0.0
23	7-16	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+0.0
24	7-17	TCU	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
25	7-18	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Attack err	Becca Kelley		+0.0
26	7-19	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
27	8-19	LOUIS	TCU×3	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
28	9-19	TCU	TCU×3	Attack err	Brooke Bultema	blk Evan Hendrix, Kinsley Young	+0.0
29	10-19	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Reese Robins	set Lauren Murphy	+0.0
30	10-20	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
31	10-21	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Payton Petersen	+0.0
32	11-21	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Reese Wilburn	+0.0
33	12-21	TCU	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Reese Wilburn	+0.0
34	12-22	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Nayelis Cabello	set Chloe Chicoine	+0.0
35	12-23	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Reese Wilburn	+0.0
36	13-23	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+0.0
37	13-24	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
38	14-24	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+0.0
39	14-25	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	LOUIS	TCU	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.3
2	2-0	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Kalyssa Blackshear		+0.4
3	2-1	TCU	LOUIS	Serve err	TCU server		+0.3
4	2-2	LOUIS	LOUIS	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Evan Hendrix	+0.4
5	3-2	LOUIS	TCU	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.3
6	3-3	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
7	4-3	LOUIS	TCU	Attack err	Chloe Chicoine	blk De'Andrea McMillian, Becca Kelley	+0.3
8	4-4	TCU	LOUIS	Serve err	TCU server		+0.3
9	5-4	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+0.3
10	6-4	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Chloe Meester		+0.5
11	6-5	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.3
12	7-5	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Becca Kelley	+0.4
13	8-5	TCU	TCU	Kill	Rosemary Archer		+0.5
14	8-6	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Nayelis Cabello	set Chloe Meester	+0.3
15	9-6	LOUIS	TCU×3	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Rosemary Archer	+0.4
16	10-6	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Reese Robins	set Becca Kelley	+0.6
17	11-6	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Reese Robins	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
18	11-7	TCU	LOUIS	Serve err	TCU server		+0.3
19	11-8	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.5
20	12-8	LOUIS	TCU	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.4
21	12-9	TCU	LOUIS×3	Serve err	TCU server		+0.3
22	12-10	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Kamden Schrand	+0.5
23	12-11	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Evan Hendrix	+0.5
24	13-11	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+0.5
25	13-12	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.4
26	14-12	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
27	14-13	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.4
28	15-13	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.5
29	16-13	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Chloe Meester	blk Kinsley Young, Jalyn Gibson	+0.7
30	16-14	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.4
31	17-14	LOUIS	TCU	Attack err	Chloe Meester	blk Kinsley Young, Jalyn Gibson	+0.6
32	17-15	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.4
33	18-15	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Reese Wilburn	+0.6
34	18-16	TCU	LOUIS	Serve err	TCU server		+0.4
35	18-17	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.7
36	19-17	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Reese Wilburn	+0.7
37	19-18	TCU	LOUIS×5	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.5
38	19-19	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Attack err	Evan Hendrix	blk Chloe Chicoine, Brooke Bultema	+0.8
39	19-20	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Attack err	Reese Robins		+0.8
40	19-21	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.7
41	19-22	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.5
42	20-22	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+0.2
43	21-22	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Chloe Chicoine		+0.6
44	21-23	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.6
45	22-23	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.4
46	22-24	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.7
47	23-24	LOUIS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.4
48	24-24	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Chloe Chicoine	blk Evan Hendrix, Kinsley Young	+1.5
49	24-25	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.1
50	25-25	LOUIS	TCU	Serve err	LOUIS server		+1.1
51	25-26	TCU	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+1.1
52	25-27	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+1.2

Score shown after each rally, TCU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.