FinalThu, Sep 3, 2026

AwayPAC-12

3:0

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

San Diego St. def. UC Davis 3–0

(28-26, 25-23, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SDSU	28	25	25	3
UC DAV	26	23	19	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UC DAV above 50 · SDSU below

Biggest swing: 10.5% to San Diego St. — set 1, SDSU 28-26 UC DAV. Kill by Layla Austin (set by Kendall Mairs). UC DAV win probability 59% → 48%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SDSU 31.3%68.7% UC DAV

San Diego St. wins

3-0

6.1%

3-1

11.0%

3-2

14.2%

UC Davis wins

3-0

22.4%

3-1

26.4%

3-2

20.0%

SDSU break %: 38.8% vs this opp
UC DAV break %: 42.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Layla AustinKill+10.5%
Kill by Layla Austin (set by Kendall Mairs)
Set 1 · SDSU 28-26 UC DAV · SDSU 41% → 52%
02
Layla AustinKill+9.6%
Kill by Layla Austin (set by Kendall Mairs)
Set 1 · SDSU 26-25 UC DAV · SDSU 32% → 41%
03
Ella SchabortKill+9.2%
Kill by Ella Schabort (set by Kendall Mairs)
Set 2 · SDSU 25-23 UC DAV · SDSU 69% → 78%
04
Gianna BoganKill+7.2%
Kill by Gianna Bogan (set by Mia Starr)
Set 1 · SDSU 22-23 UC DAV · UC DAV 66% → 73%
05
Ally ChandlerKill+6.7%
Kill by Ally Chandler (set by Mia Starr)
Set 1 · SDSU 26-26 UC DAV · UC DAV 59% → 65%
06
Layla AustinKill+6.7%
Kill by Layla Austin (set by Kendall Mairs)
Set 1 · SDSU 27-26 UC DAV · SDSU 35% → 41%
07
Ally ChandlerKill+6.1%
Kill by Ally Chandler (set by Mia Starr)
Set 1 · SDSU 23-24 UC DAV · UC DAV 68% → 74%
08
Ella SchabortKill+6.1%
Kill by Ella Schabort (set by Kendall Mairs)
Set 1 · SDSU 24-24 UC DAV · SDSU 26% → 32%

Official NCAA box

Box score

San Diego St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Layla AustinOH	3	15	1	39	.359	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	15
7Annabelle De JagerOH	3	9	4	25	.200	0	2	1	6	1	0	2	1	12
6Ella SchabortOH	3	8	5	36	.083	1	1	1	13	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
11Tessa SchoutenMB	3	5	4	17	.059	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	8
9Taelyn BentleyMB	3	3	1	10	.200	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	3	6
21Kendall MairsS	3	2	1	6	.167	33	1	0	13	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
3Zara StewartL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	0
13Nazare JuddL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
14Mila GehlenOPP	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Logan CaryS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	16	135	.193	42	4	3	57	2	3	14	10	78

UC Davishome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Isabella UmpierreOPP	3	11	5	32	.188	0	1	2	8	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
7Gianna BoganOH	3	10	5	31	.161	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	12
13Ally ChandlerMB	3	9	3	22	.273	0	0	1	3	0	1	3	2.5	11.5
10Allie CaldwellMB	3	5	2	9	.333	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	7
2Mia StarrS	3	2	0	2	1.000	34	0	0	11	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
18Khloe WongDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
16Brooke HibinoOH	3	6	6	31	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
5Rachel DunaganOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	9	1	0	0	0	1
14Ximena Cordero BarrL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	5	0	3	17	0	0	0	0	0
9Demi ColeMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		44	21	130	.177	42	2	7	61	4	6	6	9	68

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 SDSU · UC DAV 5

Set 1

28-26

Longest run 6 SDSUUC DAV 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 SDSUUC DAV 5

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 SDSUUC DAV 4

Bars above the line = UC Davis leads, below = San Diego St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

San Diego St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	60%9/15
2	62%8/13	47%7/15
3	44%8/18	20%2/10
4	88%7/8	46%6/13
5	64%7/11	53%8/15
6	60%6/10	25%2/8
All	63%44/70	45%34/76

UC Davis

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	22%2/9
2	57%8/14	33%4/12
3	62%8/13	33%4/12
4	58%7/12	50%8/16
5	50%6/12	36%4/11
6	38%5/13	40%4/10
All	55%42/76	37%26/70

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

146 rallies

Rally log

#	SDSU-UC DAV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UC DAV	SDSU	Attack err	Gianna Bogan		+1.6
2	1-1	SDSU	UC DAV	Attack err	Ella Schabort		+1.6
3	2-1	UC DAV	SDSU×3	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.7
4	3-1	SDSU	SDSU×3	Attack err	Gianna Bogan		+2.5
5	4-1	SDSU	SDSU×3	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Zara Stewart	+2.5
6	4-2	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.6
7	4-3	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Ella Schabort	blk Gianna Bogan	+2.4
8	5-3	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+1.8
9	5-4	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+1.7
10	5-5	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Annabelle De Jager		+2.5
11	6-5	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Tessa Schouten	set Kendall Mairs	+1.9
12	7-5	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+2.8
13	7-6	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+1.8
14	7-7	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Kendall Mairs		+2.7
15	8-7	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+2.0
16	8-8	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+1.9
17	8-9	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Allie Caldwell	set Ximena Cordero Barr	+2.7
18	9-9	UC DAV	SDSU×6	Bad set	Isabella Umpierre		+1.9
19	10-9	SDSU	SDSU×6	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre		+3.0
20	11-9	SDSU	SDSU×6	Kill	Layla Austin	set Nazare Judd	+3.1
21	12-9	SDSU	SDSU×6	Attack err	Allie Caldwell		+3.1
22	13-9	SDSU	SDSU×6	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Zara Stewart	+2.9
23	14-9	SDSU	SDSU×6	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre	blk Taelyn Bentley	+2.5
24	14-10	SDSU	UC DAV×3	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Ximena Cordero Barr	+1.3
25	14-11	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Allie Caldwell	+2.4
26	14-12	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Attack err	Taelyn Bentley	blk Allie Caldwell	+2.8
27	15-12	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+2.4
28	15-13	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Allie Caldwell	set Mia Starr	+2.0
29	15-14	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Ximena Cordero Barr	+3.3
30	16-14	UC DAV	SDSU	Serve err	UC DAV server		+2.7
31	16-15	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+2.3
32	16-16	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Tessa Schouten	blk Gianna Bogan	+3.8
33	17-16	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+2.9
34	17-17	SDSU	UC DAV	Attack err	Layla Austin		+2.7
35	18-17	UC DAV	SDSU	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre		+3.1
36	18-18	SDSU	UC DAV	Attack err	Tessa Schouten	blk Brooke Hibino	+2.9
37	19-18	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Logan Cary	+3.3
38	19-19	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+3.1
39	19-20	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Allie Caldwell	set Mia Starr	+4.8
40	20-20	UC DAV	SDSU	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+3.3
41	21-20	SDSU	SDSU	Attack err	Brooke Hibino		+5.7
42	21-21	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Allie Caldwell	set Mia Starr	+3.7
43	22-21	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+4.5
44	22-22	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+4.2
45	22-23	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+7.2
46	23-23	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+4.7
47	23-24	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+6.1
48	24-24	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+6.1
49	24-25	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+6.1
50	25-25	UC DAV	SDSU	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre		+6.1
51	26-25	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+9.6
52	26-26	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+6.7
53	27-26	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+6.7
54	28-26	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+10.5
Set 2
1	1-0	SDSU	SDSU	Ace	SDSU server	aced Team	+3.0
2	1-1	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+2.0
3	2-1	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Taelyn Bentley	set Kendall Mairs	+2.1
4	2-2	SDSU	UC DAV	Attack err	Annabelle De Jager	blk Ally Chandler, Isabella Umpierre	+2.0
5	3-2	UC DAV	SDSU	Serve err	UC DAV server		+2.2
6	3-3	SDSU	UC DAV×4	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+2.1
7	3-4	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Ace	UC DAV server	aced Annabelle De Jager	+3.0
8	3-5	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Attack err	Ella Schabort		+2.8
9	3-6	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+2.6
10	4-6	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+1.7
11	5-6	SDSU	SDSU	Attack err	Ally Chandler	blk Annabelle De Jager, Tessa Schouten	+2.8
12	5-7	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+2.0
13	6-7	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+2.0
14	7-7	SDSU	SDSU	Ace	SDSU server	aced Team	+3.3
15	7-8	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+2.3
16	8-8	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Tessa Schouten	set Kendall Mairs	+2.3
17	8-9	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Allie Caldwell	set Mia Starr	+2.3
18	9-9	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+2.4
19	9-10	SDSU	UC DAV	Attack err	Gianna Bogan		+2.4
20	10-10	UC DAV	SDSU×3	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+2.5
21	11-10	SDSU	SDSU×3	Bad set	Ximena Cordero Barr		+3.9
22	12-10	SDSU	SDSU×3	Attack err	Ally Chandler		+4.1
23	12-11	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+2.5
24	12-12	UC DAV	UC DAV	Ace	UC DAV server	aced Team	+4.0
25	13-12	UC DAV	SDSU	Serve err	UC DAV server		+2.9
26	13-13	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+2.8
27	14-13	UC DAV	SDSU	Attack err	Ella Schabort		+3.1
28	14-14	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+2.9
29	15-14	UC DAV	SDSU×4	Attack err	Ally Chandler	blk Annabelle De Jager, Tessa Schouten	+3.2
30	16-14	SDSU	SDSU×4	Attack err	Brooke Hibino	blk Tessa Schouten, Kendall Mairs	+4.8
31	17-14	SDSU	SDSU×4	Ace	SDSU server	aced Rachel Dunagan	+4.6
32	18-14	SDSU	SDSU×4	Attack err	Allie Caldwell	blk Tessa Schouten, Kendall Mairs	+4.0
33	18-15	SDSU	UC DAV	Serve err	SDSU server		+2.0
34	19-15	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+2.8
35	19-16	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+1.9
36	20-16	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Kendall Mairs	set Nazare Judd	+2.9
37	20-17	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Allie Caldwell	+1.9
38	21-17	UC DAV	SDSU×3	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+2.9
39	22-17	SDSU	SDSU×3	Kill	Taelyn Bentley	set Kendall Mairs	+2.7
40	23-17	SDSU	SDSU×3	Attack err	Gianna Bogan	blk Kendall Mairs, Ella Schabort	+1.4
41	23-18	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Ximena Cordero Barr	+0.3
42	24-18	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+0.6
43	24-19	SDSU	UC DAV×5	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+0.1
44	24-20	UC DAV	UC DAV×5	Attack err	Ella Schabort		+0.4
45	24-21	UC DAV	UC DAV×5	Attack err	Annabelle De Jager	blk Mia Starr, Ally Chandler	+1.0
46	24-22	UC DAV	UC DAV×5	Attack err	Ella Schabort	blk Brooke Hibino, Ally Chandler	+2.2
47	24-23	UC DAV	UC DAV×5	Attack err	Tessa Schouten	blk Ally Chandler	+5.3
48	25-23	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+9.2
Set 3
1	1-0	UC DAV	SDSU×4	Attack err	Isabella Umpierre		+1.7
2	2-0	SDSU	SDSU×4	Attack err	Brooke Hibino	blk Taelyn Bentley, Ella Schabort	+2.6
3	3-0	SDSU	SDSU×4	Attack err	Brooke Hibino	blk Taelyn Bentley	+2.6
4	4-0	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Zara Stewart	+2.6
5	4-1	SDSU	UC DAV	Serve err	SDSU server		+1.5
6	4-2	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Mia Starr	set Kendall Mairs	+2.4
7	5-2	UC DAV	SDSU	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.9
8	5-3	SDSU	UC DAV	Attack err	Ella Schabort	blk Allie Caldwell	+1.7
9	6-3	UC DAV	SDSU×3	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+1.9
10	7-3	SDSU	SDSU×3	Ace	SDSU server	aced Team	+2.7
11	8-3	SDSU	SDSU×3	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+2.5
12	8-4	SDSU	UC DAV	Attack err	Tessa Schouten		+1.4
13	9-4	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+1.8
14	10-4	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Tessa Schouten	set Kendall Mairs	+2.2
15	10-5	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+1.2
16	11-5	UC DAV	SDSU	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.5
17	12-5	SDSU	SDSU	Attack err	Gianna Bogan		+1.8
18	12-6	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+0.9
19	13-6	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Ella Schabort	+1.2
20	13-7	SDSU	UC DAV	Attack err	Ally Chandler		+0.9
21	14-7	UC DAV	SDSU	Serve err	UC DAV server		+1.2
22	14-8	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+0.8
23	14-9	UC DAV	UC DAV	Attack err	Annabelle De Jager		+1.6
24	15-9	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Taelyn Bentley	set Kendall Mairs	+1.5
25	15-10	SDSU	UC DAV	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+1.0
26	15-11	UC DAV	UC DAV	Kill	Brooke Hibino	set Mia Starr	+2.0
27	16-11	UC DAV	SDSU×4	Attack err	Brooke Hibino	blk Tessa Schouten	+1.9
28	17-11	SDSU	SDSU×4	Serve err	SDSU server		+2.1
29	18-11	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Zara Stewart	+1.5
30	19-11	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Kendall Mairs	set Zara Stewart	+0.9
31	19-12	SDSU	UC DAV	Serve err	SDSU server		+0.3
32	20-12	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+0.5
33	21-12	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Tessa Schouten	set Kendall Mairs	+0.4
34	21-13	SDSU	UC DAV×4	Kill	Demi Cole	set Mia Starr	+0.1
35	21-14	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+0.3
36	21-15	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Rachel Dunagan	+0.5
37	21-16	UC DAV	UC DAV×4	Kill	Isabella Umpierre	set Mia Starr	+0.8
38	22-16	UC DAV	SDSU	Kill	Tessa Schouten	set Kendall Mairs	+1.0
39	22-17	SDSU	UC DAV×3	Kill	Ally Chandler	set Mia Starr	+0.4
40	22-18	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Kill	Mia Starr	set Ximena Cordero Barr	+1.1
41	22-19	UC DAV	UC DAV×3	Kill	Gianna Bogan	set Mia Starr	+1.9
42	23-19	UC DAV	SDSU×3	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+2.3
43	24-19	SDSU	SDSU×3	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+1.5
44	25-19	SDSU	SDSU×3	Attack err	Gianna Bogan	blk Ella Schabort, Taelyn Bentley	+0.4

Score shown after each rally, San Diego St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.