FinalFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Butler def. Seton Hall 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Butler 82.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 3:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Butler won at Seton Hall 3-0 (25-22, 25-19, 25-18) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Butler's Chase Lemming led with 14 kills, and Jersey Loyer added 14 digs.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set123Sets
BUTLER2525253
SETON2219180

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Chase Lemming hit .542 with 14 kills as Butler rolled past Seton Hall.

Win probability never moved more than 4.0 points on one rally; Seton Hall topped out at 21% in Set 1. Butler went in as RallyIQ's 82% pick.

ButlerSeton Hall
  • Break %+13.1 pts
    51.438.3

    Points won on own serve: 38 of 74 vs 23 of 60. Seton Hall sided out 48.6% of the time.

  • Hitting+.202
    .383.181

    Kills and errors: 43–7 vs 32–15.

  • Longest run+0
    55

    Butler scored 5 straight in the third set to turn an 8–12 deficit into a 13–12 lead. Final score of the set: 25–18.

Seton Hall above 50Butler belowMax swing 4.0%

ButlerSeton Hall

Aces
Butler 6·Seton Hall 9
Serve err
Butler 9·Seton Hall 10
Blocks
Butler 3·Seton Hall 31 BS · 4 BA vs 2 BS · 2 BA
Digs
Butler 37·Seton Hall 35

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Seton Hall above 50 · Butler below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+4.0% BUTLERrally 134 · set 3

Biggest swing: 4.0% to Butler — set 1, BUTLER 23-21 SETON. Kill by Chase Lemming (set by Jersey Loyer). SETON win probability 16% → 12%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUTLER 80.8%19.2% SETON

Butler wins

3-0
32.3%
3-1
30.4%
3-2
18.0%

Seton Hall wins

3-0
3.1%
3-1
6.4%
3-2
9.8%
BUTLER break %
44.9% vs this opp
SETON break %
38.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Chase LemmingKill+4.0%

    Kill by Chase Lemming (set by Jersey Loyer)

    Set 1 · BUTLER 23-21 SETON · BUTLER 84% → 88%

  2. 02

    Kill by Samantha Shelton (set by Emilee Fuller)

    Set 1 · BUTLER 20-20 SETON · SETON 16% → 19%

  3. 03
    Elise WardKill+3.1%

    Kill by Elise Ward (set by Ava Hunter)

    Set 1 · BUTLER 22-21 SETON · BUTLER 81% → 84%

  4. 04

    Kill by Samantha Shelton (set by Gwen Adler)

    Set 1 · BUTLER 21-21 SETON · SETON 17% → 19%

  5. 05
    Seton HallService error+2.8%

    Seton Hall service error

    Set 1 · BUTLER 21-20 SETON · BUTLER 81% → 83%

  6. 06
    Seton HallAce+2.6%

    Seton Hall ace

    Set 1 · BUTLER 20-19 SETON · SETON 13% → 16%

  7. 07

    Daria Safian stuffed by Carly Slusser & Chase Lemming

    Set 1 · BUTLER 24-21 SETON · BUTLER 88% → 90%

  8. 08
    Seton HallAce+2.1%

    Seton Hall ace

    Set 1 · BUTLER 6-7 SETON · SETON 18% → 20%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Butleraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
314124.54201253010.515.5
39020.45003252010.512.5
35014.357000201016
35212.250201100005
3418.375100000215
3103.3331500400001
35311.182000100005
3002.0006221400002
3000–1600200000
2000–002200000
2000–000100000
1000–000000000
Team totals43794.383406937914375
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
313432.28111142111.515.5
311429.2411106100012
3105.20000010010.51.5
3003.0002111700001
3011-1.000000001011
25418.056012300006
31011.000212520002
3000–021510002
3000–001200000
2000–422100002
2125-.200100100001
Team totals321594.1813091035622359

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Butler vs Seton Hall

Season series · Butler leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 BUTLER · SETON 5

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 4 BUTLERSETON 5

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 3 BUTLERSETON 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 5 BUTLERSETON 5

Bars above the line = Seton Hall leads, below = Butler leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Butler

SlotSideout %Break %
1
89%8/9
56%9/16
2
44%7/16
46%6/13
3
64%7/11
46%6/13
4
83%5/6
55%6/11
5
50%5/10
29%2/7
6
63%5/8
64%9/14
All
62%37/60
51%38/74

Seton Hall

SlotSideout %Break %
1
42%8/19
14%1/7
2
58%7/12
33%4/12
3
55%6/11
46%6/13
4
45%5/11
40%4/10
5
63%5/8
17%1/6
6
38%5/13
58%7/12
All
49%36/74
38%23/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

134 rallies

#BUTLER-SETONSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BUTLERSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+1.3
21-1SETONBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+1.1
31-2BUTLERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+1.3
41-3SETONSETONAttack errChase Lemming+1.9
52-3SETONBUTLERServe errSeton Hall+1.2
62-4BUTLERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+1.4
73-4SETONBUTLER×3KillZoe McDonaldset Sarah Kempf+1.3
84-4BUTLERBUTLER×3KillRaegan Durbinset Sarah Kempf+1.8
95-4BUTLERBUTLER×3AceButleraced Kennedy Cummins+1.7
105-5BUTLERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Rylee Nelson+1.3
116-5SETONBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Sarah Kempf+1.2
126-6BUTLERSETONAttack errMaria Nix+1.3
136-7SETONSETONAceSeton Hall+2.1
147-7SETONBUTLER×4KillMaria Nixset Jersey Loyer+1.4
158-7BUTLERBUTLER×4Attack errAlondra Villanueva+1.9
169-7BUTLERBUTLER×4KillRaegan Durbinset Carly Slusser+1.7
1710-7BUTLERBUTLER×4KillRaegan Durbinset Elise Ward+1.5
1810-8BUTLERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Rylee Nelson+1.0
1911-8SETONBUTLER×4KillElise Wardset Ava Hunter+1.1
2012-8BUTLERBUTLER×4Attack errDaria Safian+1.3
2113-8BUTLERBUTLER×4AceButleraced Alondra Villanueva+1.0
2214-8BUTLERBUTLER×4AceButleraced Rylee Nelson+0.7
2314-9BUTLERSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+0.4
2415-9SETONBUTLERKillCarly Slusserset Ava Hunter+0.5
2515-10BUTLERSETONKillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+0.4
2615-11SETONSETONAceSeton Hall+0.8
2716-11SETONBUTLERBlockedAlondra Villanuevablk Zoe McDonald+0.7
2817-11BUTLERBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+0.7
2917-12BUTLERSETON×3KillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+0.3
3017-13SETONSETON×3Bad setMaria Nix+0.8
3117-14SETONSETON×3AceSeton Hallaced Chase Lemming+1.1
3218-14SETONBUTLERKillZoe McDonaldset Sarah Kempf+1.0
3318-15BUTLERSETONServe errButler+0.8
3419-15SETONBUTLERAttack errSamantha Shelton+1.0
3520-15BUTLERBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Sarah Kempf+1.0
3620-16BUTLERSETON×5Serve errButler+0.4
3720-17SETONSETON×5Bad setSarah Kempf+1.0
3820-18SETONSETON×5KillDaria Safianset Emilee Fuller+1.7
3920-19SETONSETON×5AceSeton Hall+2.6
4020-20SETONSETON×5KillSamantha Sheltonset Emilee Fuller+3.6
4121-20SETONBUTLERServe errSeton Hall+2.8
4221-21BUTLERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+2.9
4322-21SETONBUTLER×3KillElise Wardset Ava Hunter+3.1
4423-21BUTLERBUTLER×3KillChase Lemmingset Jersey Loyer+4.0
4524-21BUTLERBUTLER×3BlockedDaria Safianblk Carly Slusser, Chase Lemming+2.5
4624-22BUTLERSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+0.7
4725-22SETONBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+1.5
Set 2
11-0SETONBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+0.8
22-0BUTLERBUTLERAttack errAlondra Villanueva+1.0
32-1BUTLERSETONServe errButler+0.8
43-1SETONBUTLERServe errSeton Hall+0.7
54-1BUTLERBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Elise Ward+1.0
64-2BUTLERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Samantha Shelton+0.7
75-2SETONBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Sarah Kempf+0.7
85-3BUTLERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.7
96-3SETONBUTLERKillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+0.7
106-4BUTLERSETONServe errButler+0.7
117-4SETONBUTLERServe errSeton Hall+0.7
128-4BUTLERBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Jersey Loyer+0.9
138-5BUTLERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.6
148-6SETONSETONBlockedElise Wardblk Alexis Opland+1.0
159-6SETONBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Jersey Loyer+0.7
1610-6BUTLERBUTLERAttack errAlexis Opland+0.9
1710-7BUTLERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+0.6
1811-7SETONBUTLER×3KillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+0.6
1912-7BUTLERBUTLER×3Attack errDaria Safian+0.7
2013-7BUTLERBUTLER×3KillElise Wardset Ava Hunter+0.5
2113-8BUTLERSETON×4KillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.3
2213-9SETONSETON×4KillAlondra Villanuevaset Emilee Fuller+0.6
2313-10SETONSETON×4KillAlondra Villanuevaset Madison Loiselle+0.8
2413-11SETONSETON×4AceSeton Hallaced Chase Lemming+1.1
2514-11SETONBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+0.9
2614-12BUTLERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Emilee Fuller+0.8
2715-12SETONBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Sarah Kempf+0.9
2815-13BUTLERSETONServe errButler+0.8
2916-13SETONBUTLERKillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+0.9
3017-13BUTLERBUTLERAttack errSamantha Shelton+1.1
3117-14BUTLERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Alondra Villanueva+0.6
3218-14SETONBUTLERKillCarly Slusserset Sarah Kempf+0.7
3319-14BUTLERBUTLERAttack errDaria Safian+0.7
3419-15BUTLERSETONKillRylee Nelsonset Ava Hunter+0.4
3519-16SETONSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+0.8
3620-16SETONBUTLERServe errSeton Hall+0.8
3720-17BUTLERSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+0.6
3821-17SETONBUTLERKillAva Hunterset Jersey Loyer+0.8
3921-18BUTLERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+0.5
4022-18SETONBUTLERServe errSeton Hall+0.8
4123-18BUTLERBUTLERBad setEmilee Fuller+0.6
4223-19BUTLERSETONServe errButler+0.2
4324-19SETONBUTLERKillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+0.3
4425-19BUTLERBUTLERAttack errMadison Loiselle+0.1
Set 3
11-0BUTLERBUTLERAttack errSamantha Shelton+0.6
21-1BUTLERSETONServe errButler+0.4
31-2SETONSETONAceSeton Hallaced Chase Lemming+0.7
42-2SETONBUTLERServe errSeton Hall+0.4
52-3BUTLERSETON×5Serve errButler+0.5
62-4SETONSETON×5AceSeton Hallaced Raegan Durbin+0.7
72-5SETONSETON×5KillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.8
82-6SETONSETON×5AceSeton Hallaced Raegan Durbin+0.8
92-7SETONSETON×5BlockedElise Wardblk Mia Clyburn, Samantha Shelton+0.8
103-7SETONBUTLER×3Serve errSeton Hall+0.4
114-7BUTLERBUTLER×3Attack errSamantha Shelton+0.7
125-7BUTLERBUTLER×3KillChase Lemmingset Jersey Loyer+0.7
135-8BUTLERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.6
145-9SETONSETONAttack errMaria Nix+0.8
156-9SETONBUTLERKillMaria Nixset Sarah Kempf+0.5
167-9BUTLERBUTLERKillZoe McDonald+0.8
177-10BUTLERSETONAttack errMaria Nix+0.6
187-11SETONSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+0.9
198-11SETONBUTLERKillRaegan Durbinset Sarah Kempf+0.5
208-12BUTLERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+0.6
219-12SETONBUTLER×5KillCarly Slusserset Sarah Kempf+0.5
2210-12BUTLERBUTLER×5BlockedAlondra Villanuevablk Raegan Durbin, Carly Slusser+0.8
2311-12BUTLERBUTLER×5Attack errMadison Loiselle+0.9
2412-12BUTLERBUTLER×5KillCarly Slusserset Ava Hunter+0.9
2513-12BUTLERBUTLER×5KillRaegan Durbinset Ava Hunter+0.8
2613-13BUTLERSETONKillMadison Loiselleset Gwen Adler+0.6
2713-14SETONSETONBlockedCarly Slusserblk Samantha Shelton+1.0
2814-14SETONBUTLER×3Serve errSeton Hall+0.7
2915-14BUTLERBUTLER×3AceButleraced Rylee Nelson+0.9
3016-14BUTLERBUTLER×3KillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+0.8
3116-15BUTLERSETONServe errButler+0.6
3217-15SETONBUTLER×4Serve errSeton Hall+0.6
3318-15BUTLERBUTLER×4AceButleraced Samantha Shelton+0.7
3419-15BUTLERBUTLER×4KillElise Ward+0.5
3520-15BUTLERBUTLER×4AceButleraced Samantha Shelton+0.4
3620-16BUTLERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.2
3721-16SETONBUTLERKillElise Wardset Ava Hunter+0.2
3822-16BUTLERBUTLERKillChase Lemmingset Ava Hunter+0.2
3922-17BUTLERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.1
4022-18SETONSETONAceSeton Hall+0.2
4123-18SETONBUTLER×3KillChase Lemmingset Sarah Kempf+0.2
4224-18BUTLERBUTLER×3KillZoe McDonald+0.1
4325-18BUTLERBUTLER×3KillZoe McDonaldset Sarah Kempf·

Score shown after each rally, Butler first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).