FinalFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Providence def. Seton Hall 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Providence 83.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 3:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Providence beat visiting Seton Hall 3-0 (25-18, 25-21, 25-17) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Tori Otter led Providence with 8 kills; Seton Hall's Samantha Shelton had a match-high 9.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set123Sets
SETON1821170
PROV2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

16 blocks for Providence, and Seton Hall was shut down.

No single rally moved win probability more than 2.9 points. Seton Hall peaked at 26% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. RallyIQ gave Providence 83% before first serve.

Seton HallProvidence
  • Break %+16.5 pts
    32.849.3

    On serve: 36/73 against 19/58 (Seton Hall sideout 50.7%).

  • Hitting+.148
    .044.192

    34 kills, 14 errors vs 34 kills, 29 errors.

  • Longest run+2
    46

    6 straight Providence points in the first set turned a 10–12 deficit into a 16–12 lead. The set finished 25–18.

Providence above 50Seton Hall belowMax swing 2.9%

Seton HallProvidence

Aces
Seton Hall 1·Providence 4
Serve err
Seton Hall 7·Providence 6
Blocks
Seton Hall 3·Providence 162 BS · 2 BA vs 0 BS · 32 BA
Digs
Seton Hall 51·Providence 42

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Providence above 50 · Seton Hall below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+2.9% SETONrally 131 · set 3

Biggest swing: 2.9% to Seton Hall — set 2, SETON 20-19 PROV. Kill by Alexis Opland. PROV win probability 90% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SETON 11.9%88.1% PROV

Seton Hall wins

3-0
1.7%
3-1
3.7%
3-2
6.5%

Providence wins

3-0
41.3%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.1%
SETON break %
38.1% vs this opp
PROV break %
47.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Alexis OplandKill+2.9%

    Kill by Alexis Opland

    Set 2 · SETON 20-19 PROV · SETON 10% → 13%

  2. 02
    ProvidenceAce+2.9%

    Providence ace on Rylee Nelson

    Set 2 · SETON 20-21 PROV · PROV 89% → 92%

  3. 03

    Samantha Shelton stuffed by Tori Otter & Aubrey Easterwood

    Set 2 · SETON 20-22 PROV · PROV 92% → 94%

  4. 04
    Aubrey EasterwoodAttack error+2.4%

    Attack error by Aubrey Easterwood

    Set 1 · SETON 18-19 PROV · SETON 13% → 16%

  5. 05

    Kill by Samantha Shelton (set by Gwen Adler)

    Set 2 · SETON 19-19 PROV · SETON 8% → 10%

  6. 06

    Samantha Shelton stuffed by Lyric Berry & Shea Dupuis

    Set 1 · SETON 12-12 PROV · PROV 79% → 81%

  7. 07
    Daria SafianKill+2.3%

    Kill by Daria Safian (set by Alexis Opland)

    Set 1 · SETON 10-6 PROV · SETON 24% → 26%

  8. 08
    Macy TaylorKill+2.3%

    Kill by Macy Taylor (set by Ava Dyer)

    Set 1 · SETON 18-21 PROV · PROV 86% → 88%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
38728.03600182111.59.5
391335-.1141011000009
31210-.100102101012
31011.00010010010.51.5
3001.00018011000000
26620.000000100006
38017.471000300008
3000–010600001
3000–000520000
2112.000602400001
1000–000000000
1000–000200000
Team totals3429114.044271751422356
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
38317.294000300115.513.5
34211.182101500115.59.5
37224.20800041010.57.5
32310-.10000010052.54.5
3203.6671610800003
3011-1.000003300000
36220.20000000010.56.5
35116.250000200216
3000–821400002
3000–3111200001
1002.00000000010.50.5
Team totals3414104.19228464210321675

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Seton Hall vs Providence

Season series · Providence leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 SETON · PROV 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 2 SETONPROV 6

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 SETONPROV 5

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 SETONPROV 5

Bars above the line = Providence leads, below = Seton Hall leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Seton Hall

SlotSideout %Break %
1
42%5/12
43%3/7
2
100%4/4
29%2/7
3
29%4/14
50%4/8
4
80%4/5
43%3/7
5
80%4/5
20%1/5
6
33%3/9
33%2/6
All
49%24/49
38%15/40

Providence

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%5/8
71%10/14
2
57%4/7
33%2/6
3
67%4/6
56%5/9
4
67%4/6
56%5/9
5
80%4/5
33%2/6
6
50%4/8
20%1/5
All
63%25/40
51%25/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

131 rallies

#SETON-PROVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SETONPROVKillAubrey Easterwoodset Miller McDonald+1.1
21-1PROVSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+1.2
31-2SETONPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+1.1
42-2PROVSETONAttack errLyric Berry+1.2
53-2SETONSETONAttack errTori Otter+1.8
63-3SETONPROVServe errSeton Hall+1.2
74-3PROVSETONKillMadison Loiselleset Emilee Fuller+1.4
85-3SETONSETONKillMadison Loiselleset Sarah Musial+2.0
95-4SETONPROVServe errSeton Hall+1.3
106-4PROVSETONServe errProvidence+1.5
116-5SETONPROVServe errSeton Hall+1.4
127-5PROVSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Emilee Fuller+1.6
138-5SETONSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+2.2
148-6SETONPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+1.4
159-6PROVSETONAttack errMacy Taylor+1.7
1610-6SETONSETONKillDaria Safianset Alexis Opland+2.3
1710-7SETONPROV×3KillMacy Taylorset Miller McDonald+1.4
1810-8PROVPROV×3Attack errSamantha Shelton+2.1
1910-9PROVPROV×3BlockedDaria Safianblk Aubrey Easterwood, Fielding Mayhugh+2.2
2011-9PROVSETONAttack errFielding Mayhugh+1.8
2111-10SETONPROVKillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+1.6
2212-10PROVSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Aubrey Easterwood+1.9
2312-11SETONPROV×6KillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+1.6
2412-12PROVPROV×6BlockedSamantha Sheltonblk Lyric Berry, Shea Dupuis+2.3
2512-13PROVPROV×6KillFielding Mayhugh+2.2
2612-14PROVPROV×6Attack errSamantha Shelton+2.0
2712-15PROVPROV×6AceProvidenceaced Alondra Villanueva+1.7
2812-16PROVPROV×6Attack errEmilee Fuller+1.4
2913-16PROVSETONKillMadison Loiselleset Emilee Fuller+0.9
3014-16SETONSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Emilee Fuller+1.6
3114-17SETONPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+1.3
3214-18PROVPROVBlockedAlondra Villanuevablk Lyric Berry, Shea Dupuis+1.4
3315-18PROVSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Samantha Shelton+0.8
3416-18SETONSETONBlockedShea Dupuisblk Alondra Villanueva+1.7
3516-19SETONPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+1.5
3617-19PROVSETONServe errProvidence+1.3
3718-19SETONSETONAttack errAubrey Easterwood+2.4
3818-20SETONPROV×6KillAubrey Easterwoodset Sarah Musial+2.0
3918-21PROVPROV×6KillMacy Taylorset Ava Dyer+2.3
4018-22PROVPROV×6BlockedDaria Safianblk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter+1.5
4118-23PROVPROV×6KillMacy Taylorset Miller McDonald+0.8
4218-24PROVPROV×6BlockedDaria Safianblk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter+0.3
4318-25PROVPROV×6BlockedAlondra Villanuevablk Tori Otter, Aubrey Easterwood·
Set 2
11-0PROVSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+0.9
22-0SETONSETONAttack errGwenyth Koss+1.3
32-1SETONPROVBlockedAlondra Villanuevablk Tori Otter, Aubrey Easterwood+0.9
43-1PROVSETON×4Serve errProvidence+1.0
54-1SETONSETON×4KillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+1.5
65-1SETONSETON×4AceRylee Wooldridgeaced Macy Taylor+1.5
76-1SETONSETON×4Attack errTori Otter+1.5
86-2SETONPROV×3KillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+0.9
96-3PROVPROV×3KillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+1.3
106-4PROVPROV×3Attack errDaria Safian+1.4
117-4PROVSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+1.2
127-5SETONPROVKillLyric Berryset Miller McDonald+1.0
138-5PROVSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Emilee Fuller+1.2
148-6SETONPROVServe errSeton Hall+1.0
158-7PROVPROVKillFielding Mayhughset Sarah Musial+1.5
169-7PROVSETONBlockedLyric Berryblk Mia Clyburn+1.2
179-8SETONPROVKillLyric Berryset Sarah Musial+1.1
189-9PROVPROVAceProvidenceaced Rylee Nelson+1.5
1910-9PROVSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Fielding Mayhugh+1.2
2010-10SETONPROVKillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+1.1
2110-11PROVPROVBlockedDaria Safianblk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter+1.5
2211-11PROVSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+1.1
2312-11SETONSETONBlockedTori Otterblk Alondra Villanueva, Alexis Opland+1.8
2412-12SETONPROVAttack errAlondra Villanueva+1.2
2513-12PROVSETONServe errProvidence+1.4
2613-13SETONPROV×4BlockedAlondra Villanuevablk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter+1.3
2713-14PROVPROV×4BlockedAlondra Villanuevablk Lyric Berry, Tori Otter+1.7
2813-15PROVPROV×4BlockedDaria Safianblk Lyric Berry, Macy Taylor+1.5
2913-16PROVPROV×4KillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+1.3
3014-16PROVSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+0.9
3115-16SETONSETONKillMadison Loiselle+1.5
3215-17SETONPROVServe errSeton Hall+1.2
3316-17PROVSETONServe errProvidence+1.2
3416-18SETONPROVKillMacy Taylorset Sarah Musial+1.3
3517-18PROVSETONKillMadison Loiselleset Emilee Fuller+1.3
3617-19SETONPROVAttack errSamantha Shelton+1.4
3718-19PROVSETON×3KillEmilee Fuller+1.3
3819-19SETONSETON×3KillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+2.4
3920-19SETONSETON×3KillAlexis Opland+2.9
4020-20SETONPROV×5Attack errSamantha Shelton+2.0
4120-21PROVPROV×5AceProvidenceaced Rylee Nelson+2.9
4220-22PROVPROV×5BlockedSamantha Sheltonblk Tori Otter, Aubrey Easterwood+2.5
4320-23PROVPROV×5KillAubrey Easterwood+1.8
4420-24PROVPROV×5BlockedSamantha Sheltonblk Tori Otter, Aubrey Easterwood+0.9
4521-24PROVSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+0.2
4621-25SETONPROVKillFielding Mayhughset Miller McDonald+0.4
Set 3
10-1SETONPROVAttack errSamantha Shelton+0.4
20-2PROVPROVKillMacy Taylorset Miller McDonald+0.5
31-2PROVSETONServe errProvidence+0.4
41-3SETONPROVBlockedSamantha Sheltonblk Lyric Berry, Tori Otter+0.4
52-3PROVSETONAttack errLyric Berry+0.4
63-3SETONSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.6
73-4SETONPROVAttack errMia Clyburn+0.4
8–94-5SETON · PROV
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
104-6SETONPROVKillFielding Mayhugh+0.4
115-6PROVSETONAttack errFielding Mayhugh+0.4
125-7SETONPROVServe errSeton Hall+0.4
135-8PROVPROVKillTori Otterset Ava Dyer+0.5
146-8PROVSETONKillMadison Loiselleset Rylee Nelson+0.4
156-9SETONPROVBlockedSamantha Sheltonblk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter+0.4
167-9PROVSETONKillMadison Loiselleset Gwen Adler+0.4
178-9SETONSETONAttack errAubrey Easterwood+0.6
188-10SETONPROV×3KillTori Otterset Miller McDonald+0.5
198-11PROVPROV×3Attack errSamantha Shelton+0.6
208-12PROVPROV×3KillMiller McDonaldset Aubrey Easterwood+0.5
219-12PROVSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Mia Clyburn+0.3
229-13SETONPROVKillMacy Taylorset Miller McDonald+0.3
239-14PROVPROVAceProvidenceaced Alondra Villanueva+0.4
2410-14PROVSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.2
2510-15SETONPROVAttack errSamantha Shelton+0.3
2611-15PROVSETONKillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+0.2
2711-16SETONPROVAttack errAlondra Villanueva+0.3
2812-16PROVSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+0.2
2912-17SETONPROV×5KillShea Dupuisset Sarah Musial+0.3
3012-18PROVPROV×5Bad setMadison Loiselle+0.3
3112-19PROVPROV×5KillFielding Mayhughset Miller McDonald+0.2
3212-20PROVPROV×5KillMiller McDonaldset Alondra Villanueva+0.1
3312-21PROVPROV×5KillAubrey Easterwood·
3413-21PROVSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler·
3513-22SETONPROVKillFielding Mayhughset Miller McDonald·
3613-23PROVPROVBlockedSamantha Sheltonblk Aubrey Easterwood, Lyla Buser·
3714-23PROVSETONKillMadison Loiselleset Gwen Adler·
3814-24SETONPROVKillMacy Taylorset Ava Dyer·
3915-24PROVSETON×3Bad setGwenyth Koss·
4016-24SETONSETON×3KillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler·
4117-24SETONSETON×3Attack errMacy Taylor·
4217-25SETONPROVAttack errMia Clyburn·

Score shown after each rally, Seton Hall first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).