FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Air Force def. Utah Valley 3–0

(25-21, 25-21, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UT VAL	21	21	20	0
AIRFOR	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AIRFOR above 50 · UT VAL below

Biggest swing: 2.6% to Utah Valley — set 1, UT VAL 15-16 AIRFOR. Bad set by Mia Loyd. AIRFOR win probability 79% → 77%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UT VAL 24.9%75.1% AIRFOR

Utah Valley wins

3-0

4.4%

3-1

8.5%

3-2

12.0%

Air Force wins

3-0

27.1%

3-1

28.7%

3-2

19.3%

UT VAL break %: 40.4% vs this opp
AIRFOR break %: 45.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Mia LoydBad set+2.6%
Bad set by Mia Loyd
Set 1 · UT VAL 15-16 AIRFOR · UT VAL 21% → 23%
02
Alysa WalkerKill+2.5%
Kill by Alysa Walker (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 1 · UT VAL 15-18 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 79% → 81%
03
Jenness OrcuttAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Jenness Orcutt
Set 1 · UT VAL 6-4 AIRFOR · UT VAL 28% → 30%
04
Brielle RueckertAttack error+2.3%
Brielle Rueckert stuffed by Zoe Kirby & Annamaria Ramos
Set 1 · UT VAL 7-7 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 72% → 74%
05
AIRFOR serverAce+2.3%
Air Force ace on Lani Toutai
Set 1 · UT VAL 13-16 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 79% → 81%
06
Annamaria RamosKill+2.3%
Kill by Annamaria Ramos (set by Alysa Walker)
Set 1 · UT VAL 7-8 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 74% → 76%
07
Jenness OrcuttKill+2.2%
Kill by Jenness Orcutt (set by Samantha Pope)
Set 1 · UT VAL 19-22 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 81% → 83%
08
Lainie StapletonKill+2.2%
Kill by Lainie Stapleton (set by Mia Loyd)
Set 1 · UT VAL 15-17 AIRFOR · AIRFOR 77% → 79%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Utah Valleyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
4Miley ThunstromOH	3	15	4	42	.262	2	0	1	10	0	1	0.5	15.5
2Alyvia WatkinsMB	3	10	2	16	.500	0	0	0	1	0	5	2.5	12.5
5Chloe HansenOH	3	6	3	30	.100	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	6
17Olivia GloecknerOH	3	4	3	17	.059	1	0	0	3	0	4	2	6
11Evalyn MedarisS	3	4	1	12	.250	30	1	1	11	0	1	0.5	5.5
18Brielle RueckertMB	2	1	1	6	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
12Kenna McClureL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	11	0	0	0	1
8Lani ToutaiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	0	14	2	0	0	1
16Myka ChristensenS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
1Maranda WoolfMB	2	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	16	127	.189	39	3	3	59	4	12	6	62

Air Forcehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Alysa WalkerOH	3	19	1	38	.474	1	1	2	13	0	0	1	0.5	20.5
14Annamaria RamosOH	3	13	4	37	.243	0	1	0	4	2	1	1	1.5	15.5
30Zoe KirbyMB	3	6	0	12	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	8
44Grace FiaseuMB	3	5	1	14	.286	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	5
8Lainie StapletonOH	3	1	1	7	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	2
11Mia LoydS	3	0	0	0	–	19	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
13Jenness OrcuttOH	3	7	3	23	.174	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
23Samantha PopeS	3	0	0	0	–	26	2	1	12	0	0	0	0	2
1Aylani CorreaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
40Ella VogelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	21	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	10	131	.313	51	4	8	61	3	1	8	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 UT VAL · AIRFOR 9

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 2 UT VALAIRFOR 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 UT VALAIRFOR 5

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 UT VALAIRFOR 9

Bars above the line = Air Force leads, below = Utah Valley leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Utah Valley

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	42%5/12
2	64%7/11	27%3/11
3	32%7/22	30%3/10
4	64%7/11	30%3/10
5	67%6/9	42%5/12
6	56%5/9	33%3/9
All	55%40/73	34%22/64

Air Force

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	50%6/12
2	78%7/9	22%2/9
3	70%7/10	59%10/17
4	64%7/11	56%9/16
5	64%7/11	36%4/11
6	67%6/9	25%2/8
All	66%42/64	45%33/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

137 rallies

Rally log

#	UT VAL-AIRFOR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+2.1
2	1-1	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+1.5
3	2-1	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Lani Toutai	+1.6
4	2-2	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+1.5
5	3-2	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.7
6	3-3	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+1.6
7	4-3	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.7
8	4-4	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.6
9	5-4	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.7
10	6-4	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt		+2.4
11	6-5	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Serve err	UT VAL server		+1.7
12	7-5	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Olivia Gloeckner	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.9
13	7-6	UT VAL	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+1.7
14	7-7	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Brielle Rueckert	blk Zoe Kirby, Annamaria Ramos	+2.3
15	7-8	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Alysa Walker	+2.3
16	7-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+2.1
17	8-9	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Miley Thunstrom	+1.6
18	8-10	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+1.6
19	9-10	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Attack err	Annamaria Ramos	blk Olivia Gloeckner, Alyvia Watkins	+1.6
20	9-11	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom		+1.7
21	10-11	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.7
22	10-12	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Ella Vogel	+1.7
23	11-12	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Attack err	Grace Fiaseu	blk Miley Thunstrom, Alyvia Watkins	+1.7
24	11-13	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.8
25	12-13	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.8
26	12-14	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Samantha Pope	+1.9
27	13-14	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.9
28	13-15	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+2.0
29	13-16	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Lani Toutai	+2.3
30	14-16	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Lani Toutai	+1.6
31	15-16	UT VAL	UT VAL	Bad set	Mia Loyd		+2.6
32	15-17	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Lainie Stapleton	set Mia Loyd	+2.2
33	15-18	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+2.5
34	16-18	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.6
35	16-19	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+2.0
36	16-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Ella Vogel	+2.0
37	17-20	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.1
38	17-21	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Samantha Pope	+1.5
39	18-21	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Lani Toutai	+1.0
40	19-21	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+2.2
41	19-22	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+2.2
42	19-23	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.9
43	20-23	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.7
44	20-24	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.2
45	21-24	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.4
46	21-25	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.9
Set 2
1	0-1	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom		+1.5
2	1-1	AIRFOR	UT VAL×3	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.2
3	2-1	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.7
4	3-1	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Lani Toutai	+1.8
5	3-2	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+1.2
6	4-2	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.4
7	5-2	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Olivia Gloeckner	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.9
8	5-3	UT VAL	AIRFOR×5	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Mia Loyd	+1.2
9	5-4	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×5	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Samantha Pope	+1.7
10	5-5	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×5	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Lani Toutai	+1.7
11	5-6	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×5	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Chloe Hansen	+1.7
12	5-7	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×5	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner		+1.6
13	6-7	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Attack err	Annamaria Ramos	blk Olivia Gloeckner, Brielle Rueckert	+1.2
14	6-8	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+1.2
15	7-8	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.2
16	7-9	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.2
17	8-9	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.3
18	8-10	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+1.3
19	9-10	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.3
20	10-10	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+2.0
21	10-11	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom	blk Lainie Stapleton, Zoe Kirby	+1.5
22	11-11	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Kenna McClure	+1.5
23	11-12	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner		+1.5
24	11-13	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Aylani Correa	+1.9
25	12-13	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+1.4
26	12-14	UT VAL	AIRFOR×4	Serve err	UT VAL server		+1.5
27	12-15	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Samantha Pope	+1.8
28	12-16	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner		+1.4
29	12-17	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×4	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+1.1
30	13-17	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Olivia Gloeckner	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.6
31	14-17	UT VAL	UT VAL	Ace	UT VAL server	aced Ella Vogel	+1.2
32	14-18	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Attack err	Chloe Hansen		+1.1
33	14-19	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.1
34	15-19	AIRFOR	UT VAL×3	Attack err	Alysa Walker	blk Alyvia Watkins, Olivia Gloeckner	+0.6
35	16-19	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.2
36	17-19	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Ace	UT VAL server	aced Annamaria Ramos	+1.7
37	17-20	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+1.6
38	17-21	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Attack err	Evalyn Medaris		+1.6
39	18-21	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.8
40	19-21	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.7
41	19-22	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Jenness Orcutt	+1.8
42	20-22	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.2
43	20-23	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Attack err	Chloe Hansen		+1.8
44	20-24	AIRFOR	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+1.3
45	21-24	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.3
46	21-25	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+0.7
Set 3
1	1-0	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Olivia Gloeckner	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.9
2	2-0	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Annamaria Ramos	blk Alyvia Watkins, Olivia Gloeckner	+0.9
3	2-1	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+0.7
4	3-1	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.7
5	3-2	UT VAL	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Annamaria Ramos	set Mia Loyd	+0.7
6	3-3	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+0.9
7	3-4	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Alyvia Watkins		+0.9
8	4-4	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Miley Thunstrom	+0.7
9	4-5	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+0.7
10	5-5	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt		+0.7
11	5-6	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+0.7
12	6-6	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Kenna McClure	+0.7
13	7-6	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Olivia Gloeckner	+1.0
14	7-7	UT VAL	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Samantha Pope	+0.7
15	7-8	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+1.0
16	7-9	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Maranda Woolf	blk Lainie Stapleton, Zoe Kirby	+0.9
17	8-9	AIRFOR	UT VAL×3	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.7
18	9-9	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.0
19	10-9	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Attack err	Lainie Stapleton		+1.1
20	10-10	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Mia Loyd	+0.8
21	11-10	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.9
22	11-11	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Zoe Kirby	set Mia Loyd	+0.9
23	12-11	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.9
24	13-11	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Annamaria Ramos	blk Alyvia Watkins, Evalyn Medaris	+1.3
25	13-12	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Attack err	Chloe Hansen		+0.9
26	14-12	AIRFOR	UT VAL×3	Attack err	Jenness Orcutt		+1.0
27	15-12	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.4
28	16-12	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.3
29	16-13	UT VAL	AIRFOR×9	Serve err	UT VAL server		+0.7
30	16-14	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×9	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.2
31	16-15	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×9	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom		+1.3
32	16-16	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×9	Kill	Grace Fiaseu	set Samantha Pope	+1.4
33	16-17	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×9	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.4
34	16-18	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×9	Attack err	Alyvia Watkins		+1.3
35	16-19	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×9	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+1.1
36	16-20	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×9	Bad set	Miley Thunstrom		+0.9
37	16-21	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×9	Ace	AIRFOR server	aced Team	+0.6
38	17-21	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.3
39	18-21	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.6
40	18-22	UT VAL	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+0.6
41	18-23	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Kill	Jenness Orcutt	set Grace Fiaseu	+0.5
42	18-24	AIRFOR	AIRFOR×3	Attack err	Maranda Woolf	blk Zoe Kirby, Alysa Walker	+0.2
43	19-24	AIRFOR	UT VAL	Serve err	AIRFOR server		+0.0
44	20-24	UT VAL	UT VAL	Ace	UT VAL server	aced Annamaria Ramos	+0.1
45	20-25	UT VAL	AIRFOR	Kill	Alysa Walker	set Samantha Pope	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Utah Valley first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.