FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomeMVC

UNI def. Utah Valley 3–0

(25-20, 25-21, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UT VAL	20	21	17	0
N IOWA	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

N IOWA above 50 · UT VAL below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Utah Valley — set 1, UT VAL 3-1 N IOWA. Attack error by Cassidy Hartman. N IOWA win probability 97% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UT VAL 2.7%97.3% N IOWA

Utah Valley wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.7%

3-2

1.7%

UNI wins

3-0

63.7%

3-1

26.7%

3-2

6.9%

UT VAL break %: 35.9% vs this opp
N IOWA break %: 50.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Cassidy HartmanAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Cassidy Hartman
Set 1 · UT VAL 3-1 N IOWA · UT VAL 3% → 4%
02
Cassidy HartmanAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Cassidy Hartman
Set 1 · UT VAL 11-12 N IOWA · UT VAL 2% → 3%
03
UT VAL serverAce+0.4%
Utah Valley ace on Taryn Rice
Set 1 · UT VAL 17-19 N IOWA · UT VAL 2% → 2%
04
Chloe HansenAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Chloe Hansen
Set 1 · UT VAL 3-3 N IOWA · N IOWA 97% → 97%
05
Alyvia WatkinsKill+0.4%
Kill by Alyvia Watkins
Set 1 · UT VAL 5-5 N IOWA · UT VAL 2% → 3%
06
Lily DykstraAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Lily Dykstra
Set 2 · UT VAL 18-19 N IOWA · UT VAL 1% → 1%
07
Isabelle ElliottAttack error+0.4%
Isabelle Elliott stuffed by Miley Thunstrom & Brielle Rueckert
Set 1 · UT VAL 1-0 N IOWA · UT VAL 3% → 3%
08
Lily DykstraAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Lily Dykstra
Set 1 · UT VAL 9-10 N IOWA · UT VAL 2% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Utah Valleyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
18Brielle RueckertMB	3	5	1	11	.364	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	8
2Alyvia WatkinsMB	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	7.5
11Evalyn MedarisS	3	5	0	9	.556	21	0	0	4	0	4	2	7
5Chloe HansenOH	3	4	3	19	.053	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	6
4Miley ThunstromOH	3	4	5	27	-.037	1	0	1	9	1	2	1	5
17Olivia GloecknerOH	2	1	6	13	-.385	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
12Kenna McClureL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
8Lani ToutaiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
19Bree CarsonOH	2	2	4	7	-.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
16Myka ChristensenS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	21	98	.061	26	2	5	31	2	18	9	58

UNIhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Isabelle ElliottOH	3	12	1	19	.579	0	0	0	5	0	0	4	2	14
15Lily DykstraOH	3	10	7	31	.097	0	1	3	1	0	1	1	1.5	12.5
2Cassidy HartmanOH	3	10	8	26	.077	0	0	0	7	0	1	3	2.5	12.5
16Grace HannamMB	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	2	2	0	0	5	2.5	8.5
10Maryn BixbyMB	3	5	1	7	.571	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
6Reese BoothS	3	1	0	5	.200	39	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
8Sophie BuysseDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
13Calia ClubbOPP	3	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Jadyn PetersenDS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	17	0	0	0	0	0
1Taryn RiceDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	8	1	0	0	0	0
18Claire MunchOH	1	2	0	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		46	20	107	.243	44	2	9	46	2	2	16	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 UT VAL · N IOWA 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 UT VALN IOWA 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 UT VALN IOWA 3

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 4 UT VALN IOWA 5

Bars above the line = UNI leads, below = Utah Valley leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Utah Valley

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	36%4/11
2	47%7/15	20%2/10
3	64%7/11	22%2/9
4	43%6/14	36%4/11
5	60%6/10	40%4/10
6	56%5/9	33%3/9
All	53%39/73	32%19/60

UNI

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	50%6/12
2	80%8/10	43%6/14
3	78%7/9	56%9/16
4	60%6/10	33%3/9
5	55%6/11	54%7/13
6	86%6/7	33%3/9
All	68%41/60	47%34/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	UT VAL-N IOWA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Isabelle Elliott	blk Miley Thunstrom, Brielle Rueckert	+0.4
2	1-1	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.3
3	2-1	N IOWA	UT VAL	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.4
4	3-1	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman		+0.5
5	3-2	UT VAL	N IOWA×4	Kill	Grace Hannam	set Reese Booth	+0.4
6	3-3	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Attack err	Chloe Hansen		+0.4
7	3-4	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Attack err	Chloe Hansen		+0.4
8	3-5	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner		+0.3
9	4-5	N IOWA	UT VAL	Attack err	Lily Dykstra		+0.3
10	5-5	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins		+0.4
11	5-6	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.3
12	6-6	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.4
13	6-7	UT VAL	N IOWA×4	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.3
14	6-8	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.4
15	6-9	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+0.3
16	6-10	N IOWA	N IOWA×4	Bad set	Evalyn Medaris		+0.2
17	7-10	N IOWA	UT VAL×3	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.2
18	8-10	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Ace	UT VAL server	aced Team	+0.3
19	9-10	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Attack err	Lily Dykstra		+0.4
20	9-11	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+0.3
21	9-12	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Reese Booth	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.3
22	10-12	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Kenna McClure	+0.3
23	11-12	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman		+0.5
24	11-13	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Grace Hannam	set Reese Booth	+0.3
25	12-13	N IOWA	UT VAL	Attack err	Lily Dykstra	blk Brielle Rueckert, Evalyn Medaris	+0.4
26	12-14	UT VAL	N IOWA×3	Kill	Grace Hannam	set Reese Booth	+0.4
27	12-15	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner	blk Cassidy Hartman, Grace Hannam	+0.4
28	12-16	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner		+0.3
29	13-16	N IOWA	UT VAL	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.2
30	13-17	UT VAL	N IOWA	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner		+0.2
31	14-17	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.2
32	14-18	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+0.2
33	15-18	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.2
34	15-19	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.2
35	16-19	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.2
36	17-19	UT VAL	UT VAL	Ace	UT VAL server	aced Taryn Rice	+0.4
37	17-20	UT VAL	N IOWA×3	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+0.4
38	17-21	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom		+0.3
39	17-22	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Alyvia Watkins	blk Grace Hannam, Lily Dykstra	+0.2
40	18-22	N IOWA	UT VAL	Attack err	Lily Dykstra		+0.1
41	18-23	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.1
42	19-23	N IOWA	UT VAL	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.1
43	19-24	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Grace Hannam	set Reese Booth	+0.1
44	20-24	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.0
45	20-25	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Lani Toutai	+0.2
2	1-1	UT VAL	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom		+0.2
3	1-2	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Ace	N IOWA server	aced Team	+0.2
4	1-3	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.2
5	2-3	N IOWA	UT VAL	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.2
6	3-3	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Brielle Rueckert, Olivia Gloeckner	+0.2
7	3-4	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Jadyn Petersen	+0.2
8	3-5	N IOWA	N IOWA	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom	blk Maryn Bixby, Isabelle Elliott	+0.2
9	4-5	N IOWA	UT VAL	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.2
10	4-6	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.1
11	5-6	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Olivia Gloeckner	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.2
12	5-7	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.2
13	5-8	N IOWA	N IOWA	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner	blk Lily Dykstra	+0.2
14	6-8	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.1
15	6-9	UT VAL	N IOWA	Serve err	UT VAL server		+0.1
16	7-9	N IOWA	UT VAL	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.1
17	7-10	UT VAL	N IOWA×3	Serve err	UT VAL server		+0.1
18	7-11	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.1
19	7-12	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Grace Hannam	set Reese Booth	+0.1
20	8-12	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.1
21	8-13	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.1
22	9-13	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Kenna McClure	+0.1
23	9-14	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.1
24	10-14	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.1
25	10-15	UT VAL	N IOWA	Serve err	UT VAL server		+0.1
26	10-16	N IOWA	N IOWA	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner		+0.1
27	11-16	N IOWA	UT VAL	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.0
28	12-16	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Alyvia Watkins, Olivia Gloeckner	+0.1
29	12-17	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Maryn Bixby	set Reese Booth	+0.1
30	13-17	N IOWA	UT VAL×3	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Miley Thunstrom	+0.1
31	14-17	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Attack err	Maryn Bixby		+0.2
32	15-17	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.3
33	15-18	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.2
34	16-18	N IOWA	UT VAL	Attack err	Calia Clubb		+0.2
35	16-19	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.2
36	17-19	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.2
37	18-19	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Lily Dykstra		+0.4
38	18-20	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.4
39	19-20	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.4
40	19-21	UT VAL	N IOWA×3	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.4
41	19-22	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Kill	Cassidy Hartman		+0.4
42	19-23	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Bree Carson	blk Maryn Bixby, Cassidy Hartman	+0.2
43	20-23	N IOWA	UT VAL	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.1
44	21-23	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Brielle Rueckert, Bree Carson	+0.2
45	21-24	UT VAL	N IOWA	Attack err	Bree Carson		+0.3
46	21-25	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.1
2	2-0	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Grace Hannam		+0.1
3	2-1	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.1
4	3-1	N IOWA	UT VAL	Serve err	N IOWA server		+0.1
5	3-2	UT VAL	N IOWA×3	Kill	Grace Hannam	set Reese Booth	+0.1
6	3-3	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Brielle Rueckert	blk Maryn Bixby, Cassidy Hartman	+0.1
7	3-4	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Bree Carson	blk Cassidy Hartman	+0.1
8	4-4	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.1
9	4-5	UT VAL	N IOWA	Serve err	UT VAL server		+0.1
10	5-5	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Bree Carson	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.1
11	5-6	UT VAL	N IOWA×3	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.1
12	5-7	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Alyvia Watkins		+0.1
13	5-8	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Chloe Hansen		+0.1
14	6-8	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.1
15	6-9	UT VAL	N IOWA	Serve err	UT VAL server		+0.1
16	7-9	N IOWA	UT VAL	Attack err	Lily Dykstra		+0.1
17	7-10	UT VAL	N IOWA×5	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.1
18	7-11	N IOWA	N IOWA×5	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.1
19	7-12	N IOWA	N IOWA×5	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.0
20	7-13	N IOWA	N IOWA×5	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom	blk Isabelle Elliott, Grace Hannam	+0.0
21	7-14	N IOWA	N IOWA×5	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom	blk Isabelle Elliott, Grace Hannam	+0.0
22	8-14	N IOWA	UT VAL	Attack err	Lily Dykstra	blk Evalyn Medaris, Brielle Rueckert	+0.0
23	9-14	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Grace Hannam	blk Miley Thunstrom, Brielle Rueckert	+0.0
24	9-15	UT VAL	N IOWA×3	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.0
25	9-16	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Attack err	Bree Carson	blk Grace Hannam, Isabelle Elliott	+0.0
26	9-17	N IOWA	N IOWA×3	Ace	N IOWA server	aced Miley Thunstrom	+0.0
27	10-17	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.0
28	10-18	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.0
29	10-19	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.0
30	11-19	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Bree Carson	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.0
31	11-20	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Isabelle Elliott	set Reese Booth	+0.0
32	11-21	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Claire Munch	set Reese Booth	+0.0
33	12-21	N IOWA	UT VAL×4	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.0
34	13-21	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Alyvia Watkins, Evalyn Medaris	+0.0
35	14-21	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman	blk Alyvia Watkins, Evalyn Medaris	+0.0
36	15-21	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Attack err	Cassidy Hartman		+0.0
37	15-22	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Cassidy Hartman	set Reese Booth	+0.0
38	15-23	N IOWA	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Taryn Rice	+0.0
39	16-23	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.0
40	16-24	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Claire Munch	set Reese Booth	+0.0
41	17-24	N IOWA	UT VAL	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Kenna McClure	+0.0
42	17-25	UT VAL	N IOWA	Kill	Lily Dykstra	set Reese Booth	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Utah Valley first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.