FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomeMVC

Drake def. Utah Valley 3–0

(25-18, 25-19, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UT VAL	18	19	22	0
DRAKE	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

DRAKE above 50 · UT VAL below

Biggest swing: 2.8% to Drake — set 2, UT VAL 18-20 DRAKE. Kill by Matthea Dalton (set by Carolyn Maser). DRAKE win probability 87% → 90%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UT VAL 26.1%73.9% DRAKE

Utah Valley wins

3-0

4.7%

3-1

9.0%

3-2

12.4%

Drake wins

3-0

26.2%

3-1

28.3%

3-2

19.5%

UT VAL break %: 42.3% vs this opp
DRAKE break %: 47.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Matthea DaltonKill+2.8%
Kill by Matthea Dalton (set by Carolyn Maser)
Set 2 · UT VAL 18-20 DRAKE · DRAKE 87% → 90%
02
Caroline SmithKill+2.8%
Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Carolyn Maser)
Set 2 · UT VAL 17-18 DRAKE · DRAKE 84% → 87%
03
Miley ThunstromKill+2.7%
Kill by Miley Thunstrom (set by Evalyn Medaris)
Set 2 · UT VAL 16-14 DRAKE · UT VAL 18% → 21%
04
Chloe HansenAttack error+2.7%
Attack error by Chloe Hansen
Set 3 · UT VAL 22-23 DRAKE · DRAKE 94% → 96%
05
Caroline SmithKill+2.6%
Kill by Caroline Smith (set by Katie Quick)
Set 2 · UT VAL 16-16 DRAKE · DRAKE 81% → 84%
06
Kamryn BehrnsKill+2.4%
Kill by Kamryn Behrns (set by Carolyn Maser)
Set 2 · UT VAL 18-19 DRAKE · DRAKE 84% → 87%
07
Evalyn MedarisAttack error+2.4%
Evalyn Medaris stuffed by Aniyah Davis
Set 3 · UT VAL 22-24 DRAKE · DRAKE 96% → 99%
08
Chloe HansenKill+2.4%
Kill by Chloe Hansen (set by Evalyn Medaris)
Set 2 · UT VAL 14-11 DRAKE · UT VAL 20% → 22%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Utah Valleyaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Brielle RueckertMB	3	12	1	23	.478	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
2Alyvia WatkinsMB	3	5	1	12	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	3.5	8.5
4Miley ThunstromOH	3	5	4	28	.036	1	1	0	13	1	0	0	0	6
5Chloe HansenOH	3	5	2	21	.143	1	0	0	5	2	0	2	1	6
11Evalyn MedarisS	3	2	3	13	-.077	30	0	2	3	0	0	4	2	4
17Olivia GloecknerOH	2	4	3	13	.077	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4
16Myka ChristensenS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
12Kenna McClureL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	1
8Lani ToutaiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	13	2	0	0	0	1
19Bree CarsonOH	1	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		34	14	115	.174	34	5	6	41	5	1	13	7.5	59

Drakehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Caroline SmithOH	3	13	3	27	.370	0	0	0	5	1	0	2	1	14
13Lisa MelencianoOH	3	12	4	23	.348	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	13.5
16Matthea DaltonOH	3	8	2	22	.273	0	1	1	7	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
6Bliss BeckMB	3	8	1	13	.538	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
4Aniyah DavisOH	3	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	3.5
2Katie QuickS	3	0	0	0	–	18	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
23Kamryn BehrnsOH	3	8	2	22	.273	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8
11Carolyn MaserS	3	0	0	1	.000	24	2	0	10	0	0	0	0	2
1Bella FariaL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	0	6	1	0	0	0	1
3Jasmine DulanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	22	2	0	0	0	0
24Finley SchelhaasL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
12Shay McMillenOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		50	13	113	.327	48	5	5	62	5	1	12	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 UT VAL · DRAKE 5

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 UT VALDRAKE 5

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 4 UT VALDRAKE 5

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 UT VALDRAKE 4

Bars above the line = Drake leads, below = Utah Valley leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Utah Valley

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	50%6/12
2	75%6/8	46%6/13
3	35%6/17	40%4/10
4	40%6/15	33%3/9
5	56%5/9	25%2/8
6	45%5/11	38%3/8
All	47%35/74	40%24/60

Drake

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	45%5/11
2	60%6/10	40%4/10
3	86%6/7	60%9/15
4	60%6/10	54%7/13
5	60%6/10	57%8/14
6	63%5/8	55%6/11
All	60%36/60	53%39/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	UT VAL-DRAKE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.8
2	1-1	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.6
3	1-2	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.5
4	2-2	DRAKE	UT VAL	Attack err	Caroline Smith		+1.6
5	3-2	UT VAL	UT VAL	Bad set	Matthea Dalton		+2.1
6	3-3	UT VAL	DRAKE×5	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+1.6
7	3-4	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Katie Quick	+2.0
8	3-5	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Attack err	Brielle Rueckert	blk Caroline Smith, Bliss Beck	+1.9
9	3-6	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner		+1.7
10	3-7	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Jasmine Dulan	+1.5
11	4-7	DRAKE	UT VAL	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano	blk Chloe Hansen, Brielle Rueckert	+1.2
12	4-8	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+1.2
13	5-8	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.2
14	5-9	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+1.3
15	5-10	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Carolyn Maser	+1.3
16	6-10	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.0
17	6-11	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.1
18	7-11	DRAKE	UT VAL	Serve err	DRAKE server		+1.0
19	7-12	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.1
20	8-12	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.0
21	8-13	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.1
22	9-13	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Olivia Gloeckner	set Lani Toutai	+1.0
23	9-14	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+1.1
24	10-14	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Olivia Gloeckner	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.0
25	10-15	UT VAL	DRAKE×4	Serve err	UT VAL server		+1.1
26	10-16	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner		+1.1
27	10-17	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+0.7
28	10-18	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Chloe Hansen	+0.5
29	11-18	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Olivia Gloeckner	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.2
30	11-19	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.3
31	12-19	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.2
32	12-20	UT VAL	DRAKE×3	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.3
33	12-21	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Attack err	Evalyn Medaris		+0.2
34	12-22	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Lani Toutai	+0.1
35	13-22	DRAKE	UT VAL×4	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.0
36	14-22	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Attack err	Matthea Dalton		+0.1
37	15-22	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Attack err	Kamryn Behrns		+0.1
38	16-22	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Lani Toutai	+0.2
39	16-23	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+0.3
40	17-23	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.1
41	18-23	UT VAL	UT VAL	Bad set	Katie Quick		+0.2
42	18-24	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.4
43	18-25	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom		+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Aniyah Davis	blk Alyvia Watkins	+1.6
2	2-0	UT VAL	UT VAL	Ace	UT VAL server	aced Matthea Dalton	+1.7
3	2-1	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Lisa Melenciano	+1.3
4	2-2	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.6
5	3-2	DRAKE	UT VAL	Attack err	Caroline Smith	blk Alyvia Watkins, Evalyn Medaris	+1.4
6	3-3	UT VAL	DRAKE	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom	blk Lisa Melenciano, Aniyah Davis	+1.3
7	4-3	DRAKE	UT VAL	Attack err	Caroline Smith	blk Alyvia Watkins, Evalyn Medaris	+1.4
8	5-3	UT VAL	UT VAL	Ace	UT VAL server	aced Jasmine Dulan	+1.8
9	5-4	UT VAL	DRAKE×3	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+1.4
10	5-5	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Miley Thunstrom	+1.7
11	5-6	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+1.7
12	6-6	DRAKE	UT VAL×4	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Miley Thunstrom	+1.4
13	7-6	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Kill	Olivia Gloeckner	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.9
14	8-6	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+2.0
15	9-6	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Attack err	Kamryn Behrns		+2.0
16	9-7	UT VAL	DRAKE	Serve err	UT VAL server		+1.5
17	9-8	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.9
18	10-8	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.7
19	11-8	UT VAL	UT VAL	Attack err	Matthea Dalton		+2.2
20	11-9	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.5
21	12-9	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.8
22	12-10	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Carolyn Maser	+1.6
23	12-11	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+2.1
24	13-11	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.9
25	14-11	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+2.4
26	14-12	UT VAL	DRAKE×3	Serve err	UT VAL server		+1.7
27	14-13	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+2.3
28	14-14	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Lani Toutai	+2.4
29	15-14	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+2.1
30	16-14	UT VAL	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+2.7
31	16-15	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+2.0
32	16-16	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+2.6
33	17-16	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+2.4
34	17-17	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+2.2
35	17-18	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+2.8
36	18-18	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+2.4
37	18-19	UT VAL	DRAKE×5	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+2.4
38	18-20	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Carolyn Maser	+2.8
39	18-21	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom		+2.3
40	18-22	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+1.6
41	18-23	DRAKE	DRAKE×5	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.9
42	19-23	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.3
43	19-24	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Bella Faria	+0.6
44	19-25	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Olivia Gloeckner		+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	DRAKE	UT VAL×3	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.7
2	2-0	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano	blk Evalyn Medaris, Alyvia Watkins	+0.9
3	3-0	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano	blk Alyvia Watkins, Evalyn Medaris	+0.9
4	3-1	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Jasmine Dulan	+0.7
5	4-1	DRAKE	UT VAL×3	Kill	Evalyn Medaris	set Chloe Hansen	+0.8
6	5-1	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.0
7	6-1	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+0.9
8	6-2	UT VAL	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Evalyn Medaris		+0.6
9	6-3	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.9
10	6-4	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Miley Thunstrom	blk Bliss Beck, Lisa Melenciano	+0.9
11	6-5	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Jasmine Dulan	+0.9
12	7-5	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.8
13	7-6	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Jasmine Dulan	+0.8
14	8-6	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.9
15	8-7	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+0.8
16	9-7	DRAKE	UT VAL×4	Kill	Bree Carson	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.9
17	10-7	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Ace	UT VAL server	aced Bella Faria	+1.1
18	11-7	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Ace	UT VAL server	aced Jasmine Dulan	+1.1
19	12-7	UT VAL	UT VAL×4	Attack err	Bliss Beck	blk Alyvia Watkins, Bree Carson, Chloe Hansen	+1.0
20	12-8	UT VAL	DRAKE	Serve err	UT VAL server		+0.7
21	12-9	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Carolyn Maser	+0.9
22	13-9	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.9
23	13-10	UT VAL	DRAKE	Serve err	UT VAL server		+0.8
24	14-10	DRAKE	UT VAL×3	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.0
25	15-10	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Kill	Alyvia Watkins	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.1
26	16-10	UT VAL	UT VAL×3	Kill	Chloe Hansen	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.9
27	16-11	UT VAL	DRAKE	Attack err	Alyvia Watkins	blk Aniyah Davis, Matthea Dalton	+0.5
28	17-11	DRAKE	UT VAL	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.7
29	17-12	UT VAL	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.5
30	17-13	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.8
31	18-13	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Miley Thunstrom	set Evalyn Medaris	+0.9
32	18-14	UT VAL	DRAKE	Serve err	UT VAL server		+0.6
33	18-15	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.0
34	19-15	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.1
35	20-15	UT VAL	UT VAL	Ace	UT VAL server	aced Caroline Smith	+1.1
36	20-16	UT VAL	DRAKE×3	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.5
37	20-17	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Carolyn Maser	+1.0
38	20-18	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Chloe Hansen	+1.3
39	21-18	DRAKE	UT VAL	Kill	Brielle Rueckert	set Evalyn Medaris	+1.4
40	21-19	UT VAL	DRAKE×3	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.0
41	21-20	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.7
42	21-21	DRAKE	DRAKE×3	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Carolyn Maser	+2.1
43	22-21	DRAKE	UT VAL	Serve err	DRAKE server		+2.0
44	22-22	UT VAL	DRAKE×4	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+1.9
45	22-23	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Chloe Hansen		+2.7
46	22-24	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Evalyn Medaris	blk Aniyah Davis	+2.4
47	22-25	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Chloe Hansen	blk Aniyah Davis, Lisa Melenciano	+1.3

Score shown after each rally, Utah Valley first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.