Final · 4 setsSun, Sep 6, 2026

Michigan def. Valparaiso 3–1

Michigan won at Valparaiso 3-1 (23-25, 25-14, 25-16, 25-12) on Sun, Sep 6, 2026. Michigan's Ella Demetrician led with 21 kills, and Meredith Martin added 22 digs.

Data through · final Sep 6

Set1234Sets
MICH232525253
VALPO251416121

Win probability

Valparaiso above 50 · Michigan below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.3% VALPOrally 165 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.3% to Valparaiso — set 1, MICH 23-25 VALPO. Kill by Ava Helming (set by Olivia Wagner). VALPO win probability 9% → 12%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MICH 97.0%3.0% VALPO

Michigan wins

3-0
62.4%
3-1
27.2%
3-2
7.4%

Valparaiso wins

3-0
0.3%
3-1
0.8%
3-2
1.9%
MICH break %
49.0% vs this opp
VALPO break %
34.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ava HelmingKill+3.3%

    Kill by Ava Helming (set by Olivia Wagner)

    Set 1 · MICH 23-25 VALPO · VALPO 9% → 12%

  2. 02
    Ava HelmingKill+1.9%

    Kill by Ava Helming

    Set 2 · MICH 9-9 VALPO · VALPO 12% → 14%

  3. 03
    ValparaisoAce+1.8%

    Valparaiso ace on Sydney Schnichels

    Set 2 · MICH 0-2 VALPO · VALPO 14% → 15%

  4. 04

    Maggie Uhwat stuffed by Cymarah Gordon & Ece Senyapici & Ella Demetrician

    Set 1 · MICH 23-24 VALPO · MICH 89% → 91%

  5. 05
    Jordyn GoveKill+1.7%

    Kill by Jordyn Gove (set by Olivia Wagner)

    Set 1 · MICH 21-24 VALPO · VALPO 10% → 11%

  6. 06
    Ava HelmingAttack error+1.6%

    Attack error by Ava Helming

    Set 2 · MICH 3-3 VALPO · MICH 85% → 87%

  7. 07
    ValparaisoAce+1.5%

    Valparaiso ace on Sydney Schnichels

    Set 1 · MICH 16-19 VALPO · VALPO 7% → 8%

  8. 08

    Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Morgan Burke)

    Set 2 · MICH 11-9 VALPO · MICH 88% → 89%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421337.486210160052.524.5
419332.5000002004221
4103.333000200845
4005.00011041052.53.5
4000–2510700001
2106.16710112010.51.5
48322.22700000031.59.5
4112.0001810600002
4000–4002200000
35516.000000200216
3000–210710001
1000–110000001
Team totals5615123.33354616940281498
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419742.286012113010.520.5
411533.18211180010.512.5
47947-.04301030010.58.5
45113.30800010031.56.5
44619-.10500030010.54.5
4004.0003200500000
4000–010810001
4000–000000000
3001.000300510000
3000–002000000
1112.000000000001
1000–40000010.50.5
1000–400100000
Team totals4729161.112444545608467

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 MICH · VALPO 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 5 MICHVALPO 4

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 7 MICHVALPO 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 6 MICHVALPO 3

Set 4

25-12

Longest run 4 MICHVALPO 1

Bars above the line = Valparaiso leads, below = Michigan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Michigan

SlotSideout %Break %
1
82%9/11
68%15/22
2
67%8/12
50%9/18
3
62%8/13
38%5/13
4
62%8/13
43%6/14
5
100%7/7
68%15/22
6
50%6/12
25%2/8
All
68%46/68
54%52/97

Valparaiso

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%9/21
27%3/11
2
53%8/15
38%5/13
3
53%8/15
38%5/13
4
33%7/21
38%5/13
5
58%7/12
0%0/7
6
46%6/13
36%4/11
All
46%45/97
32%22/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

165 rallies

#MICH-VALPOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0VALPOMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.3
21-1MICHVALPOServe errMichigan+0.3
32-1VALPOMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.3
42-2MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.3
53-2VALPOMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.3
64-2MICHMICHAttack errJordyn Gove+0.3
74-3MICHVALPOKillMaddie Steeleset Olivia Wagner+0.3
84-4VALPOVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.5
95-4VALPOMICH×5KillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.3
106-4MICHMICH×5AceMichiganaced Rylee Bumgardner+0.4
117-4MICHMICH×5KillSydney Schnichelsset Ella Demetrician+0.3
128-4MICHMICH×5Attack errMaddie Steele+0.2
139-4MICHMICH×5Attack errJordyn Gove+0.2
149-5MICHVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.1
1510-5VALPOMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Mia Liberti+0.1
1611-5MICHMICHBlockedMaggie Uhwatblk Sydney Schnichels, Ece Senyapici, Lydia Johnson+0.1
1711-6MICHVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+0.1
1811-7VALPOVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+0.2
1912-7VALPOMICHKillCamille Edwardsset Sydney Schnichels+0.1
2012-8MICHVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+0.1
2112-9VALPOVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+0.3
2213-9VALPOMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.2
2314-9MICHMICHBlockedMaggie Uhwatblk Ece Senyapici, Ella Demetrician+0.2
2414-10MICHVALPO×3KillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+0.1
2514-11VALPOVALPO×3KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.3
2614-12VALPOVALPO×3KillJessica Pickett+0.4
2715-12VALPOMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.3
2815-13MICHVALPO×4KillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.3
2915-14VALPOVALPO×4KillJordyn Goveset Rylee Bumgardner+0.6
3015-15VALPOVALPO×4BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Jordyn Gove, Maddie Steele+0.8
3115-16VALPOVALPO×4KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+1.1
3216-16VALPOMICHBlockedJordyn Goveblk Cymarah Gordon, Jenna Hanes+0.7
3316-17MICHVALPO×4KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.9
3416-18VALPOVALPO×4Attack errLydia Johnson+1.4
3516-19VALPOVALPO×4AceValparaisoaced Sydney Schnichels+1.5
3616-20VALPOVALPO×4Attack errElla Demetrician+1.5
3717-20VALPOMICHServe errValparaiso+0.7
3817-21MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+1.1
3918-21VALPOMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.6
4018-22MICHVALPOAttack errElla Demetrician+1.2
4118-23VALPOVALPOAttack errLydia Johnson+1.1
4219-23VALPOMICH×3KillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.3
4320-23MICHMICH×3KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.7
4421-23MICHMICH×3BlockedMaggie Uhwatblk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici+1.1
4521-24MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+1.7
4622-24VALPOMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.6
4723-24MICHMICHBlockedMaggie Uhwatblk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici, Ella Demetrician+1.7
4823-25MICHVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+3.3
Set 2
10-1MICHVALPOBlockedCymarah Gordonblk Jessica Pickett, Maggie Uhwat+1.1
20-2VALPOVALPOAceValparaisoaced Sydney Schnichels+1.8
31-2VALPOMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.1
41-3MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Rylee Bumgardner+1.4
52-3VALPOMICH×3KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.2
63-3MICHMICH×3Attack errAva Helming+1.6
74-3MICHMICH×3BlockedMaddie Steeleblk Ella Demetrician, Jenna Hanes+1.4
84-4MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+1.1
95-4VALPOMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.0
106-4MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+1.2
116-5MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Ava Helming+0.9
127-5VALPOMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.9
138-5MICHMICHBlockedMaggie Uhwatblk Lydia Johnson, Jenna Hanes+1.0
148-6MICHVALPOAttack errCamille Edwards+0.8
159-6VALPOMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.7
169-7MICHVALPO×3KillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+0.8
179-8VALPOVALPO×3Attack errLydia Johnson+1.4
189-9VALPOVALPO×3KillAva Helming+1.9
1910-9VALPOMICH×7Bad setJordyn Gove+1.2
2011-9MICHMICH×7KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.5
2112-9MICHMICH×7AceMichiganaced Jordyn Gove+1.2
2213-9MICHMICH×7KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.9
2314-9MICHMICH×7BlockedAva Helmingblk Ece Senyapici, Leni Stanton-Parker+0.7
2415-9MICHMICH×7KillCymarah Gordonset Meredith Martin+0.4
2516-9MICHMICH×7KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.3
2616-10MICHVALPOBlockedLeni Stanton-Parkerblk Jessica Pickett, Ava Helming+0.1
2717-10VALPOMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.2
2818-10MICHMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.1
2918-11MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.1
3019-11VALPOMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.1
3120-11MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Carly Greskovics+0.1
3220-12MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner·
3321-12VALPOMICH×3KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke·
3422-12MICHMICH×3Attack errJordyn Gove·
3523-12MICHMICH×3AceMichiganaced Jordyn Gove·
3623-13MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner·
3724-13VALPOMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards·
3824-14MICHVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner·
3925-14VALPOMICHServe errValparaiso·
Set 3
11-0VALPOMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.7
21-1MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.8
32-1VALPOMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.7
43-1MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+0.9
53-2MICHVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.7
64-2VALPOMICH×3Attack errMaggie Uhwat+0.6
75-2MICHMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.8
86-2MICHMICH×3BlockedMaggie Uhwatblk Jenna Hanes, Lydia Johnson+0.6
96-3MICHVALPOAttack errLeni Stanton-Parker+0.4
107-3VALPOMICH×6KillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.4
118-3MICHMICH×6KillLeni Stanton-Parkerset Ella Demetrician+0.5
129-3MICHMICH×6Attack errMaggie Uhwat+0.3
1310-3MICHMICH×6KillEce Senyapiciset Camille Edwards+0.2
1411-3MICHMICH×6Serve errMichigan+0.1
1512-3MICHMICH×6KillLeni Stanton-Parkerset Camille Edwards+0.1
1612-4MICHVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Mara Thomas+0.1
1713-4VALPOMICHKillLeni Stanton-Parkerset Camille Edwards+0.1
1813-5MICHVALPO×3KillMaddie Steeleset Mara Thomas·
1913-6VALPOVALPO×3KillSarah Pippinset Mara Thomas+0.1
2013-7VALPOVALPO×3Attack errElla Demetrician+0.2
2114-7VALPOMICH×5KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.2
2215-7MICHMICH×5Attack errJessica Pickett+0.1
2316-7MICHMICH×5BlockedJordyn Goveblk Ece Senyapici, Cymarah Gordon+0.1
2417-7MICHMICH×5BlockedSarah Pippinblk Ella Demetrician, Ece Senyapici·
2518-7MICHMICH×5KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke·
2618-8MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mara Thomas·
2719-8VALPOMICHKillElla Demetricianset Carly Greskovics·
2820-8MICHMICHAttack errAva Helming·
2920-9MICHVALPO×3KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner·
3020-10VALPOVALPO×3AceValparaisoaced Carly Greskovics·
3120-11VALPOVALPO×3Attack errCymarah Gordon·
3221-11VALPOMICHServe errValparaiso·
3321-12MICHVALPO×3KillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner·
3421-13VALPOVALPO×3KillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner·
3521-14VALPOVALPO×3AceValparaisoaced Jenna Hanes·
3622-14VALPOMICHAttack errAva Helming·
3722-15MICHVALPOServe errMichigan·
3822-16VALPOVALPOAttack errLeni Stanton-Parker+0.1
3923-16VALPOMICH×3Attack errMaddie Steele+0.1
4024-16MICHMICH×3BlockedMaddie Steeleblk Leni Stanton-Parker, Ece Senyapici·
4125-16MICHMICH×3AceMichigan·
Set 4
10-1MICHVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.7
21-1VALPOMICH×4KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.6
32-1MICHMICH×4Attack errJordyn Gove+0.7
43-1MICHMICH×4KillCymarah Gordonset Meredith Martin+0.6
54-1MICHMICH×4BlockedMaddie Steeleblk Ella Demetrician, Jenna Hanes+0.5
64-2MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.4
75-2VALPOMICHServe errValparaiso+0.4
86-2MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.4
96-3MICHVALPOKillAva Helmingset Carly Greskovics+0.3
107-3VALPOMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.3
117-4MICHVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.3
128-4VALPOMICH×4Serve errValparaiso+0.3
139-4MICHMICH×4Attack errJordyn Gove+0.3
1410-4MICHMICH×4KillLydia Johnsonset Jenna Hanes+0.2
1511-4MICHMICH×4Attack errAva Helming+0.2
1611-5MICHVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+0.1
1712-5VALPOMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.1
1813-5MICHMICHAttack errMaddie Steele+0.1
1913-6MICHVALPOKillMaddie Steeleset Olivia Wagner+0.1
2014-6VALPOMICH×4KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.1
2115-6MICHMICH×4AceMichiganaced Jordyn Gove+0.1
2216-6MICHMICH×4KillElla Demetrician·
2317-6MICHMICH×4Attack errMaggie Uhwat·
2417-7MICHVALPOKillAva Helmingset Mia McCall·
2518-7VALPOMICH×3KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke·
2619-7MICHMICH×3AceMichiganaced Mia Liberti·
2720-7MICHMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Hannah Brady·
2820-8MICHVALPOKillMaddie Steeleset Rylee Bumgardner·
2921-8VALPOMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke·
3021-9MICHVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall·
3122-9VALPOMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards·
3222-10MICHVALPOBlockedLeni Stanton-Parkerblk Jessica Pickett, Mia McCall·
3323-10VALPOMICHKillLeni Stanton-Parkerset Camille Edwards·
3423-11MICHVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Mia McCall·
3524-11VALPOMICHKillLeni Stanton-Parkerset Camille Edwards·
3624-12MICHVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Mia McCall·
3725-12VALPOMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Meredith Martin·

Score shown after each rally, Michigan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).