Final · 4 setsSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:1

HomeMVC

Michigan def. Valparaiso 3–1

(23-25, 25-14, 25-16, 25-12)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
MICH	23	25	25	25	3
VALPO	25	14	16	12	1

RallyIQ model

Win probability

VALPO above 50 · MICH below

Biggest swing: 3.8% to Valparaiso — set 1, MICH 23-25 VALPO. Kill by Ava Helming (set by Olivia Wagner). VALPO win probability 11% → 14%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MICH 96.2%3.8% VALPO

Michigan wins

3-0

59.2%

3-1

28.5%

3-2

8.5%

Valparaiso wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

1.0%

3-2

2.4%

MICH break %: 49.2% vs this opp
VALPO break %: 35.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ava HelmingKill+3.8%
Kill by Ava Helming (set by Olivia Wagner)
Set 1 · MICH 23-25 VALPO · VALPO 11% → 14%
02
Ava HelmingKill+2.0%
Kill by Ava Helming
Set 2 · MICH 9-9 VALPO · VALPO 14% → 16%
03
VALPO serverAce+2.0%
Valparaiso ace on Sydney Schnichels
Set 2 · MICH 0-2 VALPO · VALPO 16% → 18%
04
Maggie UhwatAttack error+1.9%
Maggie Uhwat stuffed by Cymarah Gordon & Ece Senyapici & Ella Demetrician
Set 1 · MICH 23-24 VALPO · MICH 87% → 89%
05
Jordyn GoveKill+1.9%
Kill by Jordyn Gove (set by Olivia Wagner)
Set 1 · MICH 21-24 VALPO · VALPO 11% → 13%
06
VALPO serverAce+1.7%
Valparaiso ace on Sydney Schnichels
Set 1 · MICH 16-19 VALPO · VALPO 8% → 10%
07
Ava HelmingAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Ava Helming
Set 2 · MICH 3-3 VALPO · MICH 83% → 85%
08
Ella DemetricianKill+1.7%
Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Morgan Burke)
Set 2 · MICH 11-9 VALPO · MICH 86% → 87%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Michiganaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
9Ella DemetricianOH	4	21	3	37	.486	2	1	0	16	0	5	2.5	24.5
3Cymarah GordonOPP	4	19	3	32	.500	0	0	0	2	0	4	2	21
4Ece SenyapiciMB	4	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	2	0	8	4	5
12Jenna HanesMB	4	0	0	5	.000	1	1	0	4	1	5	2.5	3.5
7Morgan BurkeS	4	0	0	0	–	25	1	0	7	0	0	0	1
22Sydney SchnichelsOH	2	1	0	6	.167	1	0	1	1	2	1	0.5	1.5
5Lydia JohnsonOPP	4	8	3	22	.227	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
16Camille EdwardsS	4	1	1	2	.000	18	1	0	6	0	0	0	2
13Meredith MartinL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	22	0	0	0	0
8Leni Stanton-ParkerOH	3	5	5	16	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	6
10Carly GreskovicsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	7	1	0	0	1
14Hannah BradyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		56	15	123	.333	54	6	1	69	4	28	14	98

Valparaisohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
4Jordyn GoveOH	4	19	7	42	.286	0	1	2	11	3	1	0.5	20.5
10Ava HelmingOH	4	11	5	33	.182	1	1	1	8	0	1	0.5	12.5
11Maggie UhwatOH	4	7	9	47	-.043	0	1	0	3	0	1	0.5	8.5
27Jessica PickettMB	4	5	1	13	.308	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	6.5
12Maddie SteeleMB	4	4	6	19	-.105	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	4.5
2Olivia WagnerS	4	0	0	4	.000	32	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
31Mia LibertiDS	4	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	8	1	0	0	1
17Danica GochDS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Rylee BumgardnerL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	5	1	0	0	0
3Lindley MartinDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
21Sarah PippinOH	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Mia McCallS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
7Mara ThomasS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	29	161	.112	44	4	5	45	6	8	4	67

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 MICH · VALPO 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 5 MICHVALPO 4

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 7 MICHVALPO 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 6 MICHVALPO 3

Set 4

25-12

Longest run 4 MICHVALPO 1

Bars above the line = Valparaiso leads, below = Michigan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Michigan

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	68%15/22
2	67%8/12	50%9/18
3	62%8/13	38%5/13
4	62%8/13	43%6/14
5	100%7/7	68%15/22
6	50%6/12	25%2/8
All	68%46/68	54%52/97

Valparaiso

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	43%9/21	27%3/11
2	53%8/15	38%5/13
3	53%8/15	38%5/13
4	33%7/21	38%5/13
5	58%7/12	0%0/7
6	46%6/13	36%4/11
All	46%45/97	32%22/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

165 rallies

Rally log

#	MICH-VALPO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.3
2	1-1	MICH	VALPO	Serve err	MICH server		+0.4
3	2-1	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.3
4	2-2	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.4
5	3-2	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.3
6	4-2	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Jordyn Gove		+0.4
7	4-3	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Olivia Wagner	+0.3
8	4-4	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.6
9	5-4	VALPO	MICH×5	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+0.4
10	6-4	MICH	MICH×5	Ace	MICH server	aced Rylee Bumgardner	+0.5
11	7-4	MICH	MICH×5	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Ella Demetrician	+0.4
12	8-4	MICH	MICH×5	Attack err	Maddie Steele		+0.3
13	9-4	MICH	MICH×5	Attack err	Jordyn Gove		+0.2
14	9-5	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+0.2
15	10-5	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Mia Liberti	+0.2
16	11-5	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat	blk Sydney Schnichels, Ece Senyapici, Lydia Johnson	+0.2
17	11-6	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.1
18	11-7	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.2
19	12-7	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Camille Edwards	set Sydney Schnichels	+0.2
20	12-8	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.2
21	12-9	VALPO	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Olivia Wagner	+0.3
22	13-9	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.3
23	14-9	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat	blk Ece Senyapici, Ella Demetrician	+0.3
24	14-10	MICH	VALPO×3	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Olivia Wagner	+0.2
25	14-11	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.3
26	14-12	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Jessica Pickett		+0.5
27	15-12	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.4
28	15-13	MICH	VALPO×4	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+0.4
29	15-14	VALPO	VALPO×4	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Rylee Bumgardner	+0.7
30	15-15	VALPO	VALPO×4	Attack err	Cymarah Gordon	blk Jordyn Gove, Maddie Steele	+1.0
31	15-16	VALPO	VALPO×4	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+1.2
32	16-16	VALPO	MICH	Attack err	Jordyn Gove	blk Cymarah Gordon, Jenna Hanes	+0.8
33	16-17	MICH	VALPO×4	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+1.0
34	16-18	VALPO	VALPO×4	Attack err	Lydia Johnson		+1.6
35	16-19	VALPO	VALPO×4	Ace	VALPO server	aced Sydney Schnichels	+1.7
36	16-20	VALPO	VALPO×4	Attack err	Ella Demetrician		+1.7
37	17-20	VALPO	MICH	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.8
38	17-21	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+1.3
39	18-21	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+0.7
40	18-22	MICH	VALPO	Attack err	Ella Demetrician		+1.3
41	18-23	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Lydia Johnson		+1.2
42	19-23	VALPO	MICH×3	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+0.3
43	20-23	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.8
44	21-23	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat	blk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici	+1.3
45	21-24	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+1.9
46	22-24	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.7
47	23-24	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat	blk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici, Ella Demetrician	+1.9
48	23-25	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+3.8
Set 2
1	0-1	MICH	VALPO	Attack err	Cymarah Gordon	blk Jessica Pickett, Maggie Uhwat	+1.3
2	0-2	VALPO	VALPO	Ace	VALPO server	aced Sydney Schnichels	+2.0
3	1-2	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.3
4	1-3	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Rylee Bumgardner	+1.6
5	2-3	VALPO	MICH×3	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.3
6	3-3	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Ava Helming		+1.7
7	4-3	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Maddie Steele	blk Ella Demetrician, Jenna Hanes	+1.5
8	4-4	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+1.2
9	5-4	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.1
10	6-4	MICH	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+1.3
11	6-5	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Ava Helming	+1.1
12	7-5	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+1.0
13	8-5	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat	blk Lydia Johnson, Jenna Hanes	+1.1
14	8-6	MICH	VALPO	Attack err	Camille Edwards		+0.9
15	9-6	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+0.8
16	9-7	MICH	VALPO×3	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.9
17	9-8	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Lydia Johnson		+1.6
18	9-9	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Ava Helming		+2.0
19	10-9	VALPO	MICH×7	Bad set	Jordyn Gove		+1.4
20	11-9	MICH	MICH×7	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+1.7
21	12-9	MICH	MICH×7	Ace	MICH server	aced Jordyn Gove	+1.4
22	13-9	MICH	MICH×7	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.0
23	14-9	MICH	MICH×7	Attack err	Ava Helming	blk Ece Senyapici, Leni Stanton-Parker	+0.7
24	15-9	MICH	MICH×7	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Meredith Martin	+0.5
25	16-9	MICH	MICH×7	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.3
26	16-10	MICH	VALPO	Attack err	Leni Stanton-Parker	blk Jessica Pickett, Ava Helming	+0.2
27	17-10	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.2
28	18-10	MICH	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.2
29	18-11	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.1
30	19-11	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.1
31	20-11	MICH	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Carly Greskovics	+0.1
32	20-12	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
33	21-12	VALPO	MICH×3	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.0
34	22-12	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Jordyn Gove		+0.0
35	23-12	MICH	MICH×3	Ace	MICH server	aced Jordyn Gove	+0.0
36	23-13	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
37	24-13	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+0.0
38	24-14	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
39	25-14	VALPO	MICH	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.8
2	1-1	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.9
3	2-1	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.8
4	3-1	MICH	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Meredith Martin	+1.0
5	3-2	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+0.8
6	4-2	VALPO	MICH×3	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat		+0.7
7	5-2	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+0.9
8	6-2	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat	blk Jenna Hanes, Lydia Johnson	+0.7
9	6-3	MICH	VALPO	Attack err	Leni Stanton-Parker		+0.5
10	7-3	VALPO	MICH×6	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+0.5
11	8-3	MICH	MICH×6	Kill	Leni Stanton-Parker	set Ella Demetrician	+0.5
12	9-3	MICH	MICH×6	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat		+0.4
13	10-3	MICH	MICH×6	Kill	Ece Senyapici	set Camille Edwards	+0.3
14	11-3	MICH	MICH×6	Serve err	MICH server		+0.2
15	12-3	MICH	MICH×6	Kill	Leni Stanton-Parker	set Camille Edwards	+0.1
16	12-4	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Mara Thomas	+0.1
17	13-4	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Leni Stanton-Parker	set Camille Edwards	+0.1
18	13-5	MICH	VALPO×3	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Mara Thomas	+0.1
19	13-6	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Sarah Pippin	set Mara Thomas	+0.1
20	13-7	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Ella Demetrician		+0.2
21	14-7	VALPO	MICH×5	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.2
22	15-7	MICH	MICH×5	Attack err	Jessica Pickett		+0.2
23	16-7	MICH	MICH×5	Attack err	Jordyn Gove	blk Ece Senyapici, Cymarah Gordon	+0.1
24	17-7	MICH	MICH×5	Attack err	Sarah Pippin	blk Ella Demetrician, Ece Senyapici	+0.0
25	18-7	MICH	MICH×5	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.0
26	18-8	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mara Thomas	+0.0
27	19-8	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Carly Greskovics	+0.0
28	20-8	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.0
29	20-9	MICH	VALPO×3	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
30	20-10	VALPO	VALPO×3	Ace	VALPO server	aced Carly Greskovics	+0.0
31	20-11	VALPO	VALPO×3	Attack err	Cymarah Gordon		+0.0
32	21-11	VALPO	MICH	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.0
33	21-12	MICH	VALPO×3	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
34	21-13	VALPO	VALPO×3	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Olivia Wagner	+0.0
35	21-14	VALPO	VALPO×3	Ace	VALPO server	aced Jenna Hanes	+0.0
36	22-14	VALPO	MICH	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.1
37	22-15	MICH	VALPO	Serve err	MICH server		+0.0
38	22-16	VALPO	VALPO	Attack err	Leni Stanton-Parker		+0.1
39	23-16	VALPO	MICH×3	Attack err	Maddie Steele		+0.1
40	24-16	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Maddie Steele	blk Leni Stanton-Parker, Ece Senyapici	+0.0
41	25-16	MICH	MICH×3	Ace	MICH server	aced Team	+0.0
Set 4
1	0-1	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+0.8
2	1-1	VALPO	MICH×4	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.7
3	2-1	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Jordyn Gove		+0.8
4	3-1	MICH	MICH×4	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Meredith Martin	+0.7
5	4-1	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Maddie Steele	blk Ella Demetrician, Jenna Hanes	+0.6
6	4-2	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Olivia Wagner	+0.4
7	5-2	VALPO	MICH	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.4
8	6-2	MICH	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+0.5
9	6-3	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Carly Greskovics	+0.4
10	7-3	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+0.3
11	7-4	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Olivia Wagner	+0.4
12	8-4	VALPO	MICH×4	Serve err	VALPO server		+0.4
13	9-4	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Jordyn Gove		+0.4
14	10-4	MICH	MICH×4	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Jenna Hanes	+0.3
15	11-4	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Ava Helming		+0.2
16	11-5	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Olivia Wagner	+0.1
17	12-5	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+0.1
18	13-5	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Maddie Steele		+0.1
19	13-6	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Olivia Wagner	+0.1
20	14-6	VALPO	MICH×4	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.1
21	15-6	MICH	MICH×4	Ace	MICH server	aced Jordyn Gove	+0.1
22	16-6	MICH	MICH×4	Kill	Ella Demetrician		+0.0
23	17-6	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Maggie Uhwat		+0.0
24	17-7	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Ava Helming	set Mia McCall	+0.0
25	18-7	VALPO	MICH×3	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.0
26	19-7	MICH	MICH×3	Ace	MICH server	aced Mia Liberti	+0.0
27	20-7	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Hannah Brady	+0.0
28	20-8	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Maddie Steele	set Rylee Bumgardner	+0.0
29	21-8	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.0
30	21-9	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jordyn Gove	set Mia McCall	+0.0
31	22-9	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+0.0
32	22-10	MICH	VALPO	Attack err	Leni Stanton-Parker	blk Jessica Pickett, Mia McCall	+0.0
33	23-10	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Leni Stanton-Parker	set Camille Edwards	+0.0
34	23-11	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Jessica Pickett	set Mia McCall	+0.0
35	24-11	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Leni Stanton-Parker	set Camille Edwards	+0.0
36	24-12	MICH	VALPO	Kill	Maggie Uhwat	set Mia McCall	+0.0
37	25-12	VALPO	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Meredith Martin	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Michigan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.