FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

0:3

HomeBIG-EAST

Marquette def. Illinois 3–0

(25-16, 25-22, 26-24)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ILL	16	22	24	0
MARQ	25	25	26	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MARQ above 50 · ILL below

Biggest swing: 9.7% to Marquette — set 3, ILL 24-26 MARQ. Attack error by Alyssa Aguayo. MARQ win probability 90% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ILL 64.1%35.9% MARQ

Illinois wins

3-0

19.5%

3-1

24.6%

3-2

20.0%

Marquette wins

3-0

7.4%

3-1

12.9%

3-2

15.6%

ILL break %: 43.6% vs this opp
MARQ break %: 40.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Alyssa AguayoAttack error+9.7%
Attack error by Alyssa Aguayo
Set 3 · ILL 24-26 MARQ · MARQ 90% → 100%
02
Tani JuricKill+9.1%
Kill by Tani Juric (set by Luanna Markus)
Set 3 · ILL 24-25 MARQ · MARQ 81% → 90%
03
Tani JuricKill+8.5%
Kill by Tani Juric (set by Luanna Markus)
Set 3 · ILL 24-24 MARQ · MARQ 73% → 81%
04
Carson TylerKill+6.9%
Kill by Carson Tyler (set by Allie Beers)
Set 2 · ILL 20-22 MARQ · MARQ 64% → 71%
05
ILL serverAce+5.9%
Illinois ace on Allie Beers
Set 2 · ILL 20-20 MARQ · ILL 35% → 41%
06
MARQ serverAce+5.6%
Marquette ace on Talita Goncalves
Set 2 · ILL 20-23 MARQ · MARQ 71% → 77%
07
Tani JuricKill+5.3%
Kill by Tani Juric (set by Luanna Markus)
Set 2 · ILL 17-19 MARQ · MARQ 63% → 68%
08
Carson TylerKill+5.0%
Kill by Carson Tyler (set by Luanna Markus)
Set 2 · ILL 20-21 MARQ · MARQ 59% → 64%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Illinoisaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Paityn ChapmanOH	3	9	5	29	.138	3	0	2	9	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
19Alyssa AguayoOH	3	8	4	27	.148	1	0	2	1	1	0	3	1.5	9.5
11Kristina StarostenkoMB	3	5	0	12	.417	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
5Taylor de BoerOH	3	6	3	20	.150	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6
7Kenna PhelanS	3	1	1	5	.000	24	1	0	8	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
14Lindsay OldendorfMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
8Maya HarrisOH	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	1	5	3	1	0	0	0	1
18Talita GoncalvesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	10	4	0	0	0	1
17Vivian CampbellS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Taryn KirschL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
6Gabriella PitcelMB	2	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	3
13Kenzie CoganL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		30	15	100	.150	29	4	11	36	6	1	14	8	62

Marquettehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Carson TylerOH	3	13	3	37	.270	2	1	4	11	1	1	0	1	15
15Molly WelgeMB	3	8	4	15	.267	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
11Tani JuricOPP	3	8	1	14	.500	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	9
7Keira SchmidtMB	3	4	0	7	.571	0	2	0	2	0	0	2	1	7
3Luanna MarkusS	3	2	2	10	.000	30	1	1	10	0	0	2	1	4
6Allie BeersOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	3	3	2	0	0	0	0
10Emma ParksOH	3	7	8	25	-.040	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
24Avery HelmsDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	2
2Emi JuricL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	13	1	0	0	0	0
14Annika KowalskiDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	18	109	.220	37	6	10	49	4	1	10	6	76

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 ILL · MARQ 4

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 2 ILLMARQ 4

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 4 ILLMARQ 4

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 ILLMARQ 4

Bars above the line = Marquette leads, below = Illinois leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Illinois

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	20%2/10
2	53%8/15	47%7/15
3	70%7/10	50%8/16
4	50%6/12	22%2/9
5	50%6/12	0%0/6
6	60%6/10	25%2/8
All	55%41/74	33%21/64

Marquette

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%9/12	36%4/11
2	57%8/14	43%6/14
3	50%7/14	46%6/13
4	88%7/8	42%5/12
5	100%6/6	57%8/14
6	60%6/10	40%4/10
All	67%43/64	45%33/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

138 rallies

Rally log

#	ILL-MARQ	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Carson Tyler	+1.8
2	0-2	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+2.5
3	1-2	MARQ	ILL	Serve err	MARQ server		+1.7
4	2-2	ILL	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Talita Goncalves	+2.4
5	2-3	ILL	MARQ×3	Serve err	ILL server		+1.8
6	2-4	MARQ	MARQ×3	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+2.6
7	2-5	MARQ	MARQ×3	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+2.6
8	3-5	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+1.7
9	3-6	ILL	MARQ	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo		+1.9
10	3-7	MARQ	MARQ	Serve err	MARQ server		+2.5
11	4-7	MARQ	ILL	Attack err	Emma Parks	blk Paityn Chapman, Lindsay Oldendorf	+1.6
12	4-8	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Keira Schmidt	set Luanna Markus	+1.9
13	4-9	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo	blk Keira Schmidt, Tani Juric	+2.4
14	5-9	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+1.4
15	5-10	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+1.8
16	6-10	MARQ	ILL	Serve err	MARQ server		+1.4
17	7-10	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Tani Juric		+2.3
18	7-11	ILL	MARQ	Serve err	ILL server		+2.0
19	7-12	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+2.4
20	8-12	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+1.4
21	8-13	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+1.8
22	8-14	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Paityn Chapman	blk Luanna Markus, Molly Welge	+2.1
23	9-14	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Alyssa Aguayo	+1.1
24	9-15	ILL	MARQ	Serve err	ILL server		+1.5
25	10-15	MARQ	ILL	Serve err	MARQ server		+1.1
26	11-15	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Molly Welge	blk Alyssa Aguayo, Lindsay Oldendorf	+1.9
27	11-16	ILL	MARQ	Attack err	Lindsay Oldendorf		+1.9
28	12-16	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+1.4
29	13-16	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Carson Tyler		+2.4
30	13-17	ILL	MARQ	Serve err	ILL server		+2.3
31	14-17	MARQ	ILL	Attack err	Emma Parks		+1.7
32	14-18	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+2.3
33	14-19	MARQ	MARQ	Kill	Keira Schmidt		+2.5
34	15-19	MARQ	ILL	Serve err	MARQ server		+1.2
35	15-20	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+1.8
36	15-21	MARQ	MARQ	Ace	MARQ server	aced Alyssa Aguayo	+1.6
37	16-21	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.6
38	16-22	ILL	MARQ×4	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+1.0
39	16-23	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+0.6
40	16-24	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Avery Helms	+0.2
41	16-25	MARQ	MARQ×4	Ace	MARQ server	aced Talita Goncalves	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MARQ	ILL×4	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+2.0
2	2-0	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+2.6
3	3-0	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Molly Welge	blk Alyssa Aguayo, Kristina Starostenko	+2.4
4	4-0	ILL	ILL×4	Ace	ILL server	aced Emi Juric	+2.2
5	4-1	ILL	MARQ	Serve err	ILL server		+1.5
6	5-1	MARQ	ILL	Serve err	MARQ server		+1.6
7	5-2	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Keira Schmidt	set Carson Tyler	+1.5
8	6-2	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.7
9	6-3	ILL	MARQ×3	Kill	Luanna Markus	set Emi Juric	+1.5
10	6-4	MARQ	MARQ×3	Ace	MARQ server	aced Talita Goncalves	+2.4
11	6-5	MARQ	MARQ×3	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Emi Juric	+2.8
12	7-5	MARQ	ILL	Serve err	MARQ server		+2.1
13	7-6	ILL	MARQ×4	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+2.1
14	7-7	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+3.2
15	7-8	MARQ	MARQ×4	Attack err	Taylor de Boer	blk Keira Schmidt, Tani Juric	+3.4
16	7-9	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+3.5
17	8-9	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+2.4
18	8-10	ILL	MARQ×3	Attack err	Kenna Phelan		+2.6
19	8-11	MARQ	MARQ×3	Attack err	Paityn Chapman	blk Carson Tyler	+3.5
20	8-12	MARQ	MARQ×3	Ace	MARQ server	aced Talita Goncalves	+3.3
21	9-12	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Kenna Phelan	set Paityn Chapman	+2.0
22	10-12	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Carson Tyler		+3.2
23	10-13	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+2.7
24	11-13	MARQ	ILL	Attack err	Carson Tyler		+2.4
25	11-14	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+2.8
26	11-15	MARQ	MARQ	Ace	MARQ server	aced Maya Harris	+3.5
27	12-15	MARQ	ILL×3	Serve err	MARQ server		+2.1
28	13-15	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Molly Welge	blk Alyssa Aguayo, Gabriella Pitcel	+3.4
29	14-15	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Emma Parks		+3.9
30	14-16	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+3.3
31	15-16	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+3.0
32	16-16	ILL	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Paityn Chapman	+4.5
33	16-17	ILL	MARQ	Serve err	ILL server		+3.6
34	17-17	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+3.5
35	17-18	ILL	MARQ	Serve err	ILL server		+3.8
36	17-19	MARQ	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+5.3
37	18-19	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+3.4
38	18-20	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Keira Schmidt	set Luanna Markus	+4.2
39	19-20	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+3.5
40	20-20	ILL	ILL	Ace	ILL server	aced Allie Beers	+5.9
41	20-21	ILL	MARQ×3	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+5.0
42	20-22	MARQ	MARQ×3	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Allie Beers	+6.9
43	20-23	MARQ	MARQ×3	Ace	MARQ server	aced Talita Goncalves	+5.6
44	21-23	MARQ	ILL	Serve err	MARQ server		+2.3
45	21-24	ILL	MARQ	Serve err	ILL server		+4.3
46	22-24	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.6
47	22-25	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+4.0
Set 3
1	0-1	ILL	MARQ	Attack err	Taylor de Boer		+1.6
2	1-1	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+1.6
3	1-2	ILL	MARQ×4	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+1.7
4	1-3	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Molly Welge		+2.3
5	1-4	MARQ	MARQ×4	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo	blk Luanna Markus, Molly Welge	+2.3
6	1-5	MARQ	MARQ×4	Attack err	Paityn Chapman	blk Molly Welge, Emma Parks	+2.3
7	2-5	MARQ	ILL×4	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+1.5
8	3-5	ILL	ILL×4	Ace	ILL server	aced Carson Tyler	+2.2
9	4-5	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Emma Parks	blk Gabriella Pitcel, Paityn Chapman	+2.3
10	5-5	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+2.4
11	5-6	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+1.8
12	6-6	MARQ	ILL	Attack err	Emma Parks		+1.8
13	6-7	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+1.9
14	7-7	MARQ	ILL	Attack err	Emma Parks	blk Kenna Phelan, Gabriella Pitcel	+1.8
15	7-8	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Tani Juric	+2.0
16	8-8	MARQ	ILL	Serve err	MARQ server		+1.9
17	9-8	ILL	ILL	Ace	ILL server	aced Allie Beers	+2.6
18	9-9	ILL	MARQ	Serve err	ILL server		+1.9
19	10-9	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+1.9
20	10-10	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+2.0
21	11-10	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+2.0
22	11-11	ILL	MARQ	Serve err	ILL server		+2.1
23	12-11	MARQ	ILL	Serve err	MARQ server		+2.1
24	12-12	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+2.1
25	12-13	MARQ	MARQ	Kill	Luanna Markus	set Kenna Phelan	+3.2
26	13-13	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Paityn Chapman	+2.2
27	13-14	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+2.4
28	14-14	MARQ	ILL	Attack err	Luanna Markus		+2.3
29	14-15	ILL	MARQ	Serve err	ILL server		+2.5
30	14-16	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Taylor de Boer		+3.5
31	15-16	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Gabriella Pitcel	set Kenna Phelan	+2.3
32	15-17	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Carson Tyler	set Luanna Markus	+2.7
33	16-17	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+2.4
34	16-18	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+2.9
35	17-18	MARQ	ILL×4	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+2.5
36	18-18	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Luanna Markus	blk Kristina Starostenko	+4.0
37	19-18	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+4.2
38	20-18	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+4.0
39	20-19	ILL	MARQ	Kill	Molly Welge	set Luanna Markus	+2.6
40	20-20	MARQ	MARQ	Kill	Emma Parks	set Kenna Phelan	+4.5
41	21-20	MARQ	ILL×3	Attack err	Emma Parks		+3.7
42	22-20	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Emma Parks	blk Gabriella Pitcel, Paityn Chapman	+4.8
43	23-20	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Molly Welge		+3.6
44	23-21	ILL	MARQ	Attack err	Maya Harris		+1.5
45	23-22	MARQ	MARQ	Attack err	Keira Schmidt		+3.8
46	24-22	MARQ	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+4.5
47	24-23	ILL	MARQ×4	Kill	Emma Parks	set Luanna Markus	+2.6
48	24-24	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+8.5
49	24-25	MARQ	MARQ×4	Kill	Tani Juric	set Luanna Markus	+9.1
50	24-26	MARQ	MARQ×4	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo		+9.7

Score shown after each rally, Illinois first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.