Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Lindenwood def. Southeast Mo. St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Lindenwood 59.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Lindenwood won at Southeast Mo. St. 3-1 (16-25, 25-23, 25-23, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Lauren Ortwerth led Lindenwood with 16 kills; Southeast Mo. St.'s Reagan Nelson had a match-high 17.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set1234Sets
LINWOD162525253
SEMO252323221

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Lindenwood was outhit .299 to .235, and won anyway.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Lindenwood's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Lindenwood at 60%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Lindenwood 15–18 Southeast Mo. St.

    5 straight Lindenwood kills turned a 15–18 deficit into a 20–18 lead. The match swung to Lindenwood.

    Lindenwood 42% → 68%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Lindenwood 22–22 Southeast Mo. St.

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Lindenwood, enough to take the set 25–23 and lead 2–1.

    Lindenwood 58% → 80%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Lindenwood 19–19 Southeast Mo. St.

    Lindenwood scored 4 straight to go from 19–19 to a 23–19 lead.

    Lindenwood 79% → 98%

Southeast Mo. St. above 50Lindenwood belowMax swing 9.5%

LindenwoodSoutheast Mo. St.

Sideout %
Lindenwood 58.5·Southeast Mo. St. 60.0
Break %
Lindenwood 40.0·Southeast Mo. St. 41.5
Hitting
Lindenwood .235·Southeast Mo. St. .299
Longest run
Lindenwood 5·Southeast Mo. St. 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southeast Mo. St. above 50 · Lindenwood below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.5% LINWODrally 184 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.5% to Lindenwood — set 3, LINWOD 24-22 SEMO. Bad set by Holland Guilliams. SEMO win probability 35% → 25%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

LINWOD 48.3%51.7% SEMO

Lindenwood wins

3-0
11.8%
3-1
18.0%
3-2
18.4%

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0
13.2%
3-1
19.5%
3-2
19.0%
LINWOD break %
41.1% vs this opp
SEMO break %
41.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Holland GuilliamsBad set+9.5%

    Bad set by Holland Guilliams

    Set 3 · LINWOD 24-22 SEMO · LINWOD 65% → 75%

  2. 02

    Kill by Susanna Beretti (set by Kaci Johnson)

    Set 3 · LINWOD 25-23 SEMO · LINWOD 71% → 80%

  3. 03

    Kill by Susanna Beretti (set by Kaci Johnson)

    Set 2 · LINWOD 25-23 SEMO · LINWOD 50% → 57%

  4. 04
    Autumn BaxKill+7.6%

    Kill by Autumn Bax (set by Kaci Johnson)

    Set 3 · LINWOD 23-22 SEMO · LINWOD 58% → 65%

  5. 05
    Autumn BaxAttack error+7.5%

    Attack error by Autumn Bax

    Set 3 · LINWOD 21-21 SEMO · SEMO 35% → 43%

  6. 06

    Kill by Lauren Ortwerth (set by Kaci Johnson)

    Set 4 · LINWOD 24-22 SEMO · LINWOD 89% → 95%

  7. 07
    Lucy ArndtAttack error+6.4%

    Attack error by Lucy Arndt

    Set 3 · LINWOD 22-21 SEMO · LINWOD 57% → 64%

  8. 08
    Alaina LesterKill+6.3%

    Kill by Alaina Lester (set by Megan Holder)

    Set 3 · LINWOD 22-22 SEMO · SEMO 36% → 42%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413123.5220200000015
413531.2580001002114
48529.103201700008
44016.2504210300005
4000–120900002
32710-.50000000111.53.5
416734.26500031010.516.5
4000–1121300001
4000–3021300000
2406.667000001226
1000–000000000
Team totals6025149.235496549426591
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417739.25600170212.519.5
412531.2260002022315
48119.36802100052.512.5
410322.3180002002111
49012.7500002012211
4003.0002310800001
4003.000000001855
4000–311700001
4002.00017001000000
4001.000201410000
3002.000302630000
Team totals5616134.29948464866201693

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Lindenwood vs Southeast Mo. St.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 LINWOD · SEMO 5

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 2 LINWODSEMO 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 LINWODSEMO 4

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 5 LINWODSEMO 3

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 5 LINWODSEMO 5

Bars above the line = Southeast Mo. St. leads, below = Lindenwood leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Lindenwood

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%11/16
36%5/14
2
65%11/17
0%0/11
3
42%10/24
35%6/17
4
67%8/12
38%5/13
5
62%8/13
56%10/18
6
58%7/12
59%10/17
All
59%55/94
40%36/90

Southeast Mo. St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
85%11/13
25%3/12
2
79%11/14
27%4/15
3
56%10/18
59%16/27
4
50%8/16
25%3/12
5
50%7/14
47%7/15
6
47%7/15
46%6/13
All
60%54/90
41%39/94

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

184 rallies

#LINWOD-SEMOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+1.8
21-1SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.8
31-2LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.9
41-3SEMOSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Lucy Arndt+2.5
52-3SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+1.8
63-3LINWODLINWODAttack errMarin Johnson+2.5
73-4LINWODSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+2.0
84-4SEMOLINWODAttack errReagan Nelson+1.9
94-5LINWODSEMO×4KillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.0
104-6SEMOSEMO×4AceSoutheast Mo. St.+2.7
114-7SEMOSEMO×4BlockedKylee Richeyblk Reagan Nelson+2.7
124-8SEMOSEMO×4BlockedLauren Ortwerthblk Katherine St. John, Jacey Young+2.5
135-8SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.7
145-9LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+1.9
156-9SEMOLINWODKillKaci Johnson+1.7
166-10LINWODSEMOKillKatherine St. Johnset Holland Guilliams+2.0
177-10SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.7
187-11LINWODSEMOKillKatherine St. Johnset Megan Holder+2.0
198-11SEMOLINWODBad setReagan Nelson+1.7
208-12LINWODSEMOAttack errSusanna Beretti+2.1
219-12SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+1.7
2210-12LINWODLINWODAceLindenwoodaced Holland Guilliams+2.7
2310-13LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+2.4
2410-14SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Kaci Johnson+2.9
2511-14SEMOLINWODKillKylee Richeyset Kaci Johnson+1.8
2611-15LINWODSEMOBlockedLauren Ortwerthblk Marin Johnson, Jacey Young+2.2
2711-16SEMOSEMOBad setKaci Johnson+2.5
2812-16SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+1.4
2912-17LINWODSEMOKillKatherine St. Johnset Ellie Burns+1.9
3012-18SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.+1.9
3113-18SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+0.9
3213-19LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+1.3
3314-19SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+0.8
3414-20LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+1.3
3514-21SEMOSEMOBad setAutumn Bax+1.0
3615-21SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+0.4
3715-22LINWODSEMO×3KillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+0.6
3815-23SEMOSEMO×3BlockedKylee Richeyblk Jacey Young+0.3
3915-24SEMOSEMO×3KillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+0.1
4016-24SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson·
4116-25LINWODSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns·
Set 2
10-1SEMOSEMOAttack errAutumn Bax+2.7
21-1SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Mandy Lawson+2.0
31-2LINWODSEMOKillKatherine St. Johnset Megan Holder+2.1
42-2SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.0
52-3LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+2.1
62-4SEMOSEMOAttack errKylee Richey+2.9
73-4SEMOLINWOD×3KillSusanna Berettiset Alayna Rudebeck+2.1
84-4LINWODLINWOD×3KillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+2.9
95-4LINWODLINWOD×3BlockedLucy Arndtblk Kylee Richey, Lauren Ortwerth+2.9
105-5LINWODSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+2.2
116-5SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+2.2
127-5LINWODLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Ellie Burns+2.9
137-6LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+2.1
148-6SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+2.2
158-7LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Holland Guilliams+2.2
169-7SEMOLINWOD×4KillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+2.3
1710-7LINWODLINWOD×4KillAutumn Baxset Megan Holder+2.8
1811-7LINWODLINWOD×4Attack errReagan Nelson+2.5
1912-7LINWODLINWOD×4Attack errKatherine St. John+2.1
2012-8LINWODSEMOKillKatherine St. Johnset Megan Holder+1.3
2113-8SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+1.6
2213-9LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.3
2314-9SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+1.6
2414-10LINWODSEMO×4KillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.3
2514-11SEMOSEMO×4Attack errKylee Richey+2.3
2614-12SEMOSEMO×4BlockedKylee Richeyblk Lucy Arndt+2.8
2714-13SEMOSEMO×4BlockedSusanna Berettiblk Marin Johnson, Jacey Young+3.4
2815-13SEMOLINWODBlockedReagan Nelsonblk Kylee Richey+2.8
2916-13LINWODLINWODAttack errLucy Arndt+3.4
3016-14LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+2.2
3117-14SEMOLINWOD×3KillKaci Johnson+2.6
3218-14LINWODLINWOD×3KillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+2.9
3319-14LINWODLINWOD×3KillLauren Ortwerth+2.2
3419-15LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+1.1
3520-15SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+1.6
3620-16LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+1.0
3721-16SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Dana Grib+1.5
3821-17LINWODSEMOKillKatherine St. Johnset Nina Schuberth+0.9
3922-17SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+1.4
4022-18LINWODSEMOKillKatherine St. Johnset Megan Holder+0.7
4122-19SEMOSEMOBlockedAutumn Baxblk Lucy Arndt, Alaina Lester+1.7
4223-19SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.1
4324-19LINWODLINWODKillKylee Richey+1.3
4424-20LINWODSEMO×4BlockedKylee Richeyblk Alaina Lester+0.2
4524-21SEMOSEMO×4KillMarin Johnsonset Kaci Johnson+0.8
4624-22SEMOSEMO×4KillLucy Arndtset Holland Guilliams+1.9
4724-23SEMOSEMO×4BlockedKylee Richeyblk Lucy Arndt+4.4
4825-23SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+7.6
Set 3
11-0LINWODLINWODAceLindenwoodaced Holland Guilliams+3.2
22-0LINWODLINWODAceLindenwoodaced Holland Guilliams+3.1
32-1LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+2.3
42-2SEMOSEMOKillKatherine St. Johnset Megan Holder+3.3
53-2SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+2.5
63-3LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+2.5
74-3SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+2.5
84-4LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+2.6
94-5SEMOSEMOAttack errSusanna Beretti+3.6
105-5SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+2.7
115-6LINWODSEMOBlockedLauren Ortwerthblk Lucy Arndt, Jacey Young+2.8
126-6SEMOLINWOD×3Serve errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.7
137-6LINWODLINWOD×3KillLauren Ortwerth+3.7
148-6LINWODLINWOD×3Attack errReagan Nelson+3.6
158-7LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Reagan Nelson+2.6
169-7SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+2.7
1710-7LINWODLINWODBlockedReagan Nelsonblk Autumn Bax, Jade Roth+3.4
1810-8LINWODSEMOKillKatherine St. Johnset Autumn Bax+2.4
1910-9SEMOSEMOAttack errLauren Ortwerth+3.6
2011-9SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+2.9
2111-10LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+2.8
2212-10SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+3.0
2312-11LINWODSEMO×3Serve errLindenwood+2.9
2412-12SEMOSEMO×3KillLucy Arndtset Harper Highfill+4.3
2512-13SEMOSEMO×3AceSoutheast Mo. St.+4.6
2613-13SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+3.4
2713-14LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+3.7
2813-15SEMOSEMOBlockedSusanna Berettiblk Marin Johnson, Jacey Young+4.9
2914-15SEMOLINWODKillKaci Johnsonset Susanna Beretti+3.4
3014-16LINWODSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+3.9
3115-16SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+3.5
3215-17LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+4.1
3315-18SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Kaci Johnson+5.1
3416-18SEMOLINWOD×5KillLauren Ortwerthset Dana Grib+3.1
3517-18LINWODLINWOD×5KillJade Rothset Kaci Johnson+5.1
3618-18LINWODLINWOD×5KillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+5.9
3719-18LINWODLINWOD×5KillLauren Ortwerth+6.3
3820-18LINWODLINWOD×5KillJade Rothset Kaci Johnson+6.0
3920-19LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+4.0
4021-19SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+4.9
4121-20LINWODSEMOBad setKaci Johnson+4.2
4221-21SEMOSEMOAttack errAutumn Bax+7.5
4322-21SEMOLINWODAttack errLucy Arndt+6.4
4422-22LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+6.3
4523-22SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+7.6
4624-22LINWODLINWODBad setHolland Guilliams+9.5
4724-23LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+4.1
4825-23SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+9.3
Set 4
11-0SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+2.2
21-1LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+2.2
32-1SEMOLINWOD×3Attack errKatherine St. John+2.2
43-1LINWODLINWOD×3Attack errKatherine St. John+2.9
54-1LINWODLINWOD×3KillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+2.8
64-2LINWODSEMOBlockedSusanna Berettiblk Katherine St. John, Alaina Lester+2.0
74-3SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Harper Highfill+2.9
85-3SEMOLINWODAttack errLucy Arndt+2.3
95-4LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+2.3
106-4SEMOLINWOD×3KillLauren Ortwerthset Dana Grib+2.3
117-4LINWODLINWOD×3Bad setEllie Burns+3.0
128-4LINWODLINWOD×3AceLindenwood+2.7
138-5LINWODSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+1.8
148-6SEMOSEMOBlockedLauren Ortwerthblk Marin Johnson, Jacey Young+2.8
159-6SEMOLINWOD×5KillKaci Johnsonset Susanna Beretti+2.3
1610-6LINWODLINWOD×5KillJade Rothset Kaci Johnson+2.8
1711-6LINWODLINWOD×5KillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+2.4
1812-6LINWODLINWOD×5BlockedReagan Nelsonblk Jade Roth, Autumn Bax+1.9
1913-6LINWODLINWOD×5AceLindenwoodaced Nina Schuberth+1.5
2013-7LINWODSEMO×5BlockedAutumn Baxblk Reagan Nelson+0.8
2113-8SEMOSEMO×5Attack errAutumn Bax+1.5
2213-9SEMOSEMO×5BlockedLauren Ortwerthblk Jacey Young, Reagan Nelson+2.0
2313-10SEMOSEMO×5KillKatherine St. Johnset Ellie Burns+2.5
2413-11SEMOSEMO×5AceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Lauren Ortwerth+3.1
2514-11SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+2.7
2614-12LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.4
2714-13SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Nina Schuberth+3.8
2815-13SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+3.1
2915-14LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+3.0
3016-14SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+3.3
3116-15LINWODSEMO×4KillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+3.1
3216-16SEMOSEMO×4KillLucy Arndt+4.8
3316-17SEMOSEMO×4KillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+5.2
3416-18SEMOSEMO×4Attack errAshley Geluck+5.3
3517-18SEMOLINWOD×3KillAshley Geluckset Susanna Beretti+3.5
3618-18LINWODLINWOD×3KillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+5.5
3719-18LINWODLINWOD×3Attack errLucy Arndt+5.8
3819-19LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+4.4
3920-19SEMOLINWOD×4KillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+4.7
4021-19LINWODLINWOD×4KillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+6.1
4122-19LINWODLINWOD×4AceLindenwood+5.0
4223-19LINWODLINWOD×4KillJade Rothset Kaci Johnson+3.2
4323-20LINWODSEMO×3KillReagan Nelsonset Harper Highfill+1.2
4423-21SEMOSEMO×3BlockedLauren Ortwerthblk Marin Johnson, Jacey Young+3.0
4523-22SEMOSEMO×3KillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+5.4
4624-22SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+6.6
4725-22LINWODLINWODBlockedReagan Nelsonblk Jade Roth+4.8

Score shown after each rally, Lindenwood first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).