Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Southeast Mo. St. def. Lindenwood 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Lindenwood 57.0% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 1:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southeast Mo. St. beat visiting Lindenwood 3-1 (25-14, 25-22, 22-25, 25-13) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Southeast Mo. St.'s Lucy Arndt and Reagan Nelson led with 16 kills each, and Harper Highfill added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
LINWOD142225131
SEMO252522253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.371 on 35 swings: Reagan Nelson and Southeast Mo. St. edged Lindenwood.

The match turned twice; each line shows Southeast Mo. St.'s RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, Lindenwood was RallyIQ's 57% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Lindenwood 6–4 Southeast Mo. St.

    Southeast Mo. St. scored 6 straight to turn a 4–6 deficit into a 10–6 lead. The match swung to Southeast Mo. St.

    Southeast Mo. St. 38% → 54%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Lindenwood 0–0 Southeast Mo. St.

    Southeast Mo. St. scored 8 straight to open the set 8–0.

    Southeast Mo. St. 72% → 95%

Southeast Mo. St. above 50Lindenwood belowMax swing 3.6%

LindenwoodSoutheast Mo. St.

Sideout %
Lindenwood 51.0·Southeast Mo. St. 66.7
Break %
Lindenwood 33.3·Southeast Mo. St. 49.0
Hitting
Lindenwood .113·Southeast Mo. St. .352
Longest run
Lindenwood 4·Southeast Mo. St. 8

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southeast Mo. St. above 50 · Lindenwood below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.6% SEMOrally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.6% to Southeast Mo. St. — set 4, LINWOD 0-2 SEMO. Susanna Beretti stuffed by Alaina Lester & Katherine St. john. SEMO win probability 74% → 78%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

LINWOD 48.3%51.7% SEMO

Lindenwood wins

3-0
11.8%
3-1
18.0%
3-2
18.4%

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0
13.2%
3-1
19.5%
3-2
19.0%
LINWOD break %
41.1% vs this opp
SEMO break %
41.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Susanna Beretti stuffed by Alaina Lester & Katherine St. john

    Set 4 · LINWOD 0-2 SEMO · SEMO 74% → 78%

  2. 02
    Reagan NelsonKill+3.6%

    Kill by Reagan Nelson (set by Megan Holder)

    Set 2 · LINWOD 22-25 SEMO · SEMO 81% → 85%

  3. 03

    Autumn Bax stuffed by Lucy Arndt & Alaina Lester

    Set 4 · LINWOD 0-3 SEMO · SEMO 78% → 82%

  4. 04
    Alaina LesterBlock+3.4%

    Jade Roth stuffed by Alaina Lester

    Set 4 · LINWOD 0-4 SEMO · SEMO 82% → 85%

  5. 05
    Jade RothAttack error+3.1%

    Attack error by Jade Roth

    Set 4 · LINWOD 0-5 SEMO · SEMO 85% → 88%

  6. 06
    Kaci JohnsonBad set+3.0%

    Bad set by Kaci Johnson

    Set 2 · LINWOD 4-6 SEMO · SEMO 66% → 69%

  7. 07
    Reagan NelsonKill+3.0%

    Kill by Reagan Nelson (set by Ellie Burns)

    Set 2 · LINWOD 5-8 SEMO · SEMO 69% → 72%

  8. 08
    Ashley GeluckAttack error+2.9%

    Attack error by Ashley Geluck

    Set 1 · LINWOD 6-8 SEMO · SEMO 46% → 49%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414633.24200150010.514.5
47432.09400190031.58.5
46421.09500130031.57.5
45313.154000000216
4011-1.000232800003
4107.143311270010.52.5
411943.0470001000011
4000–022820002
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–5011600000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals4427150.11338610574010574
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416337.3511004012218
416335.37120213100016
47010.70000010254.511.5
45217.17600030153.58.5
44117.176022001017
4001.0001901800000
4507.714100000216
4001.00016121100001
4000–2121510001
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–003520000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals539125.352414126065141297

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Lindenwood vs Southeast Mo. St.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 LINWOD · SEMO 8

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 LINWODSEMO 6

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 4 LINWODSEMO 4

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 3 LINWODSEMO 4

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 2 LINWODSEMO 8

Bars above the line = Southeast Mo. St. leads, below = Lindenwood leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Lindenwood

SlotSideout %Break %
1
39%9/23
43%6/14
2
60%9/15
44%7/16
3
64%9/14
18%2/11
4
38%9/24
25%3/12
5
58%7/12
18%2/11
6
75%6/8
45%5/11
All
51%49/96
33%25/75

Southeast Mo. St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%10/15
43%6/14
2
60%9/15
55%11/20
3
90%9/10
40%6/15
4
75%9/12
59%13/22
5
78%7/9
43%6/14
6
43%6/14
45%5/11
All
67%50/75
49%47/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#LINWOD-SEMOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SEMOSEMOAttack errSusanna Beretti+2.5
21-1SEMOLINWODAttack errLucy Arndt+1.8
32-1LINWODLINWODBlockedKatherine St. johnblk Autumn Bax, Ashley Geluck+2.5
42-2LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+1.8
53-2SEMOLINWOD×3Serve errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.9
64-2LINWODLINWOD×3AceLindenwoodaced Harper Highfill+2.5
75-2LINWODLINWOD×3KillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+2.4
85-3LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+1.6
95-4SEMOSEMOBad setKaci Johnson+2.5
106-4SEMOLINWODBlockedMarin Johnsonblk Ashley Geluck, Susanna Beretti+1.9
116-5LINWODSEMO×6KillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.9
126-6SEMOSEMO×6KillJacey Young+2.7
136-7SEMOSEMO×6KillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.9
146-8SEMOSEMO×6Attack errAshley Geluck+2.9
156-9SEMOSEMO×6KillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+2.8
166-10SEMOSEMO×6KillJacey Young+2.6
177-10SEMOLINWODBad setEllie Burns+1.7
188-10LINWODLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+2.6
198-11LINWODSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+2.2
208-12SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Alayna Rudebeck+2.7
219-12SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+1.7
229-13LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.1
2310-13SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.7
2410-14LINWODSEMO×5Serve errLindenwood+2.1
2510-15SEMOSEMO×5BlockedSusanna Berettiblk Katherine St. john+2.4
2610-16SEMOSEMO×5BlockedJade Rothblk Alaina Lester+1.9
2710-17SEMOSEMO×5Attack errSusanna Beretti+1.4
2810-18SEMOSEMO×5BlockedSusanna Berettiblk Katherine St. john, Alaina Lester+0.9
2911-18SEMOLINWODAttack errReagan Nelson+0.4
3011-19LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Dana Grib+0.6
3111-20SEMOSEMOKillAlaina Lester+0.4
3212-20SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+0.1
3312-21LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+0.3
3412-22SEMOSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Kaci Johnson+0.1
3513-22SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson·
3613-23LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+0.1
3713-24SEMOSEMOAttack errAshley Geluck·
3814-24SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson·
3914-25LINWODSEMOKillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns·
Set 2
11-0LINWODLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Dana Grib+2.6
21-1LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+2.0
31-2SEMOSEMOBad setDana Grib+2.7
42-2SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+2.0
53-2LINWODLINWODKillSusanna Beretti+2.7
63-3LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+2.0
73-4SEMOSEMOKillLucy Arndt+2.9
84-4SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.1
94-5LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+2.2
104-6SEMOSEMOBad setKaci Johnson+3.0
115-6SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.1
125-7LINWODSEMOKillJacey Youngset Ellie Burns+2.3
135-8SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+3.0
146-8SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.0
156-9LINWODSEMO×4KillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.3
166-10SEMOSEMO×4AceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Alayna Rudebeck+2.8
176-11SEMOSEMO×4AceSoutheast Mo. St.aced Alayna Rudebeck+2.5
186-12SEMOSEMO×4BlockedLauren Ortwerthblk Jacey Young, Katherine St. john+2.1
197-12SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+1.2
208-12LINWODLINWODAttack errKatherine St. john+2.1
218-13LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+1.9
229-13SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+1.5
239-14LINWODSEMOKillKatherine St. johnset Megan Holder+1.9
249-15SEMOSEMOKillKatherine St. john+2.1
2510-15SEMOLINWODKillJade Rothset Kaci Johnson+1.1
2611-15LINWODLINWODAttack errLucy Arndt+2.0
2711-16LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+1.9
2812-16SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+1.5
2912-17LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+1.9
3012-18SEMOSEMOAttack errMandy Lawson+2.0
3113-18SEMOLINWODBad setEllie Burns+0.9
3214-18LINWODLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+1.8
3314-19LINWODSEMO×4Serve errLindenwood+1.9
3414-20SEMOSEMO×4KillReagan Nelsonset Jacey Young+1.8
3514-21SEMOSEMO×4Attack errLauren Ortwerth+1.0
3614-22SEMOSEMO×4KillJacey Youngset Alayna Rudebeck+0.5
3715-22SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+0.1
3816-22LINWODLINWODBlockedReagan Nelsonblk Jade Roth, Kaci Johnson+0.3
3916-23LINWODSEMOAttack errLauren Ortwerth+0.5
4017-23SEMOLINWOD×4KillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+0.1
4118-23LINWODLINWOD×4BlockedReagan Nelsonblk Autumn Bax, Jade Roth+0.4
4219-23LINWODLINWOD×4AceLindenwoodaced Nina Schuberth+0.8
4320-23LINWODLINWOD×4Attack errKatherine St. john+1.5
4420-24LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+2.2
4521-24SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+0.6
4622-24LINWODLINWODAceLindenwood+2.0
4722-25LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+3.6
Set 3
11-0SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Mandy Lawson+1.4
21-1LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+1.4
32-1SEMOLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Dana Grib+1.4
42-2LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+1.4
53-2SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+1.4
63-3LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Harper Highfill+1.4
73-4SEMOSEMOAttack errLauren Ortwerth+2.0
84-4SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+1.5
94-5LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+1.5
105-5SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Ellie Burns+1.5
116-5LINWODLINWODKillJade Rothset Reagan Nelson+2.1
126-6LINWODSEMOBlockedLauren Ortwerthblk Marin Johnson+1.5
137-6SEMOLINWOD×3KillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+1.6
148-6LINWODLINWOD×3KillJade Rothset Kaci Johnson+2.1
159-6LINWODLINWOD×3AceLindenwoodaced Reagan Nelson+2.0
169-7LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+1.3
1710-7SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+1.5
1811-7LINWODLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Dana Grib+1.8
1911-8LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+1.2
2012-8SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+1.4
2112-9LINWODSEMOKillKatherine St. johnset Lucy Arndt+1.2
2213-9SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Reagan Nelson+1.4
2314-9LINWODLINWODAceLindenwood+1.6
2414-10LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+0.9
2515-10SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+1.2
2615-11LINWODSEMOBlockedLauren Ortwerthblk Jacey Young, Lucy Arndt+0.9
2716-11SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+1.2
2816-12LINWODSEMOServe errLindenwood+0.9
2916-13SEMOSEMOAttack errLauren Ortwerth+1.6
3017-13SEMOLINWOD×3Serve errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.5
3118-13LINWODLINWOD×3AceLindenwoodaced Nina Schuberth+1.6
3219-13LINWODLINWOD×3KillAutumn Baxset Ellie Burns+1.1
3319-14LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+0.5
3420-14SEMOLINWODKillJade Rothset Kaci Johnson+0.8
3521-14LINWODLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Dana Grib+0.6
3621-15LINWODSEMOKillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+0.2
3721-16SEMOSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Harper Highfill+0.5
3822-16SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+0.6
3922-17LINWODSEMOBlockedAshley Geluckblk Alaina Lester, Katherine St. john+0.3
4023-17SEMOLINWODKillKaci Johnsonset Alaina Lester+0.5
4123-18LINWODSEMO×4KillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+0.2
4223-19SEMOSEMO×4Attack errLauren Ortwerth+0.5
4323-20SEMOSEMO×4KillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+0.9
4423-21SEMOSEMO×4KillMarin Johnsonset Ellie Burns+1.8
4524-21SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+2.4
4624-22LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+1.0
4725-22SEMOLINWODKillJade Rothset Kaci Johnson+2.2
Set 4
10-1LINWODSEMO×8KillAlaina Lesterset Megan Holder+2.6
20-2SEMOSEMO×8BlockedSusanna Berettiblk Alaina Lester, Katherine St. john+3.6
30-3SEMOSEMO×8BlockedAutumn Baxblk Lucy Arndt, Alaina Lester+3.5
40-4SEMOSEMO×8BlockedJade Rothblk Alaina Lester+3.4
50-5SEMOSEMO×8Attack errJade Roth+3.1
60-6SEMOSEMO×8Attack errAutumn Bax+2.8
70-7SEMOSEMO×8BlockedSusanna Berettiblk Alaina Lester, Katherine St. john+2.4
80-8SEMOSEMO×8KillKatherine St. johnset Megan Holder+2.0
91-8SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+1.1
102-8LINWODLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Dana Grib+1.9
112-9LINWODSEMO×4KillKatherine St. johnset Megan Holder+1.7
122-10SEMOSEMO×4AceSoutheast Mo. St.+1.9
132-11SEMOSEMO×4BlockedAutumn Baxblk Lucy Arndt+1.4
142-12SEMOSEMO×4Attack errAshley Geluck+1.0
153-12SEMOLINWODBlockedLucy Arndtblk Autumn Bax, Ashley Geluck+0.5
163-13LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Megan Holder+0.7
173-14SEMOSEMOAceSoutheast Mo. St.+0.6
184-14SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+0.3
195-14LINWODLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+0.6
205-15LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Ellie Burns+0.6
215-16SEMOSEMOAttack errLauren Ortwerth+0.5
226-16SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.+0.2
236-17LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+0.3
247-17SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+0.2
257-18LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns+0.3
267-19SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+0.2
278-19SEMOLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+0.1
288-20LINWODSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Megan Holder+0.1
299-20SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson·
3010-20LINWODLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Mandy Lawson+0.1
3110-21LINWODSEMOAttack errAutumn Bax+0.1
3211-21SEMOLINWODServe errSoutheast Mo. St.·
3311-22LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Reagan Nelson+0.1
3412-22SEMOLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson·
3512-23LINWODSEMOKillLucy Arndtset Reagan Nelson·
3613-23SEMOLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson·
3713-24LINWODSEMOKillJacey Youngset Ellie Burns·
3813-25SEMOSEMOKillReagan Nelsonset Ellie Burns·

Score shown after each rally, Lindenwood first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).