Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on No Livestream

Fordham def. George Mason 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: George Mason 70.2% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Fordham beat visiting George Mason 3-1 (25-17, 22-25, 25-23, 25-18) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Johanna Franzen led Fordham with 13 kills; George Mason's Kiera Hamilton had a match-high 19.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
GMU172523181
FORDHM252225253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

The upset: Fordham, a 30% pick, over George Mason.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Fordham's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. George Mason went in at 70% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · George Mason 16–19 Fordham

    Down 16–19, George Mason scored 4 straight to lead 20–19. The match swung to George Mason.

    Fordham 67% → 48%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · George Mason 23–21 Fordham

    Fordham closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and lead 2–1. The match swung to Fordham.

    Fordham 22% → 63%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · George Mason 0–0 Fordham

    Fordham scored 5 straight to open the set 5–0.

    Fordham 63% → 83%

Fordham above 50George Mason belowMax swing 14.5%

George MasonFordham

Sideout %
George Mason 54.2·Fordham 63.1
Break %
George Mason 36.9·Fordham 45.8
Hitting
George Mason .099·Fordham .284
Longest run
George Mason 5·Fordham 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Fordham above 50 · George Mason below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+14.5% FORDHMrally 180 · set 4

Biggest swing: 14.5% to Fordham — set 3, GMU 23-25 FORDHM. Attack error by Nia Thompson. FORDHM win probability 49% → 63%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

GMU 54.7%45.3% FORDHM

George Mason wins

3-0
14.6%
3-1
20.7%
3-2
19.4%

Fordham wins

3-0
10.6%
3-1
16.8%
3-2
17.9%
GMU break %
42.4% vs this opp
FORDHM break %
41.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Nia ThompsonAttack error+14.5%

    Attack error by Nia Thompson

    Set 3 · GMU 23-25 FORDHM · FORDHM 49% → 63%

  2. 02

    Kill by Bridget Woodruff (set by Giada Ianuale)

    Set 3 · GMU 23-24 FORDHM · FORDHM 35% → 49%

  3. 03
    Kiera HamiltonAttack error+9.3%

    Attack error by Kiera Hamilton

    Set 3 · GMU 23-23 FORDHM · FORDHM 26% → 35%

  4. 04
    Kiera HamiltonAttack error+7.5%

    Attack error by Kiera Hamilton

    Set 2 · GMU 22-21 FORDHM · GMU 46% → 53%

  5. 05

    Kill by Kiera Hamilton (set by Ava Cheney)

    Set 3 · GMU 23-21 FORDHM · GMU 70% → 78%

  6. 06
    Kiera HamiltonAttack error+7.0%

    Attack error by Kiera Hamilton

    Set 2 · GMU 20-21 FORDHM · FORDHM 52% → 59%

  7. 07

    Kill by Kiera Hamilton (set by Ava Cheney)

    Set 2 · GMU 23-21 FORDHM · GMU 53% → 60%

  8. 08

    Nia Thompson stuffed by Giada Ianuale & Sophia Kuyn

    Set 3 · GMU 19-19 FORDHM · FORDHM 29% → 35%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419646.2830216100021
4131035.0861315200016
42410-.20010000212.54.5
4119.000012200002
4119.000350160010.51.5
33311.000000100003
4005.0000221010002
4000–002800000
1103.33300000010.51.5
1023-.66700000010.50.5
Team totals4027131.099378938624483
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413335.2861017022316
410217.4712000022313
410224.33300020010.510.5
49522.182000020009
47418.167203301229
45115.267403550010.58.5
41011.000011400002
4002.000113200001
4000–013720001
4000–200910000
Team totals5517134.2844861639858997

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

George Mason vs Fordham

Season series · Fordham leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 GMU · FORDHM 5

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 2 GMUFORDHM 4

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 4 GMUFORDHM 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 5 GMUFORDHM 4

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 4 GMUFORDHM 5

Bars above the line = Fordham leads, below = George Mason leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

George Mason

SlotSideout %Break %
1
27%4/15
38%3/8
2
50%4/8
43%3/7
3
50%4/8
33%2/6
4
44%4/9
56%5/9
5
80%4/5
50%4/8
6
100%4/4
0%0/4
All
49%24/49
40%17/42

Fordham

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%5/9
60%6/10
2
67%4/6
60%6/10
3
57%4/7
60%6/10
4
33%4/12
43%3/7
5
100%4/4
50%4/8
6
100%4/4
0%0/4
All
60%25/42
51%25/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

180 rallies

#GMU-FORDHMSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1GMUFORDHMServe errGeorge Mason+1.7
20-2FORDHMFORDHMBlockedKiera Hamiltonblk Tatum Holderied, Bridget Woodruff+2.3
31-2FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+1.6
41-3GMUFORDHM×4KillJohanna Franzenset Giada Ianuale+1.8
51-4FORDHM
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.4
61-5FORDHMFORDHM×4Attack errAva Cheney+2.4
71-6FORDHMFORDHM×4Attack errNia Thompson+2.3
82-6FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.4
92-7GMUFORDHMServe errGeorge Mason+1.7
103-7FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+1.4
113-8GMUFORDHMKillGiada Ianualeset Ozge Ozaslan+1.7
124-8FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.4
134-9GMUFORDHMAttack errMia Hazelett+1.8
145-9FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+1.4
155-10GMUFORDHMKillMila Micunovicset Giada Ianuale+1.8
165-11FORDHMFORDHMAceFordhamaced Nia Thompson+2.1
176-11FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+1.2
186-12GMUFORDHMAttack errKiera Hamilton+1.6
197-12FORDHMGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+1.2
207-13GMUFORDHMKillJohanna Franzenset Giada Ianuale+1.6
217-14FORDHMFORDHMKillSophia Kuynset Giada Ianuale+1.7
228-14FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+0.9
238-15GMUFORDHMBlockedMeredith Brownblk Johanna Franzen+1.2
249-15FORDHMGMUKillMeredith Brownset Ava Cheney+0.8
2510-15GMUGMUBad setGiada Ianuale+1.5
2610-16GMUFORDHMKillJohanna Franzenset Giada Ianuale+1.5
2711-16FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.0
2812-16GMUGMUAttack errMila Micunovic+1.9
2912-17GMUFORDHM×3Serve errGeorge Mason+1.9
3012-18FORDHMFORDHM×3Attack errNia Thompson+2.0
3112-19FORDHMFORDHM×3KillMila Micunovicset Giada Ianuale+1.4
3213-19FORDHMGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+0.6
3313-20GMUFORDHM×4KillMila Micunovicset Giada Ianuale+0.9
3413-21FORDHMFORDHM×4KillTatum Holderiedset Giada Ianuale+0.7
3513-22FORDHMFORDHM×4Attack errNia Thompson+0.3
3613-23FORDHMFORDHM×4KillGiada Ianualeset Giada Ianuale+0.1
3714-23FORDHMGMUServe errFordham·
3815-23GMUGMUAceGeorge Masonaced Ozge Ozaslan·
3915-24GMUFORDHMKillBridget Woodruffset Ozge Ozaslan+0.1
4016-24FORDHMGMUServe errFordham·
4117-24GMUGMUKillGabriella Gelfoundset Ava Cheney·
4217-25GMUFORDHMServe errGeorge Mason+0.1
Set 2
11-0FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Nia Thompson+1.9
21-1GMUFORDHMKillTatum Holderiedset Giada Ianuale+2.0
31-2FORDHMFORDHMAttack errGabriella Gelfound+2.9
42-2FORDHMGMUAttack errJohanna Franzen+2.1
52-3GMUFORDHMKillJohanna Franzenset Giada Ianuale+2.2
63-3FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+2.1
73-4GMUFORDHMKillSophia Kuynset Giada Ianuale+2.3
84-4FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+2.2
94-5GMUFORDHMKillJohanna Franzenset Sophia Kuyn+2.4
105-5FORDHMGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+2.2
115-6GMUFORDHM×3KillMila Micunovicset Giada Ianuale+2.4
125-7FORDHMFORDHM×3Attack errNia Thompson+3.4
135-8FORDHMFORDHM×3KillGiada Ianualeset Sophia Kuyn+3.4
146-8FORDHMGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+2.2
156-9GMUFORDHMKillMila Micunovicset Giada Ianuale+2.6
167-9FORDHMGMUKillGabriella Gelfoundset Ava Cheney+2.3
177-10GMUFORDHM×3Serve errGeorge Mason+2.7
187-11FORDHMFORDHM×3BlockedGabriella Gelfoundblk Johanna Franzen, Tatum Holderied+3.5
197-12FORDHMFORDHM×3Attack errMeredith Brown+3.2
208-12FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.8
219-12GMUGMUBlockedJohanna Franzenblk Ava Cheney, Meredith Brown+3.0
229-13GMUFORDHMKillBridget Woodruffset Giada Ianuale+2.7
239-14FORDHMFORDHMKillJohanna Franzenset Sophia Kuyn+3.2
2410-14FORDHMGMU×4Attack errBridget Woodruff+1.8
2511-14GMUGMU×4KillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+3.0
2612-14GMUGMU×4Attack errSophia Kuyn+3.5
2713-14GMU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.9
2813-15GMUFORDHMKillBridget Woodruffset Giada Ianuale+3.3
2914-15FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+3.0
3014-16GMUFORDHMKillGiada Ianualeset Giada Ianuale+3.5
3115-16FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+3.1
3215-17GMUFORDHMBlockedNia Thompsonblk Sophia Kuyn+3.7
3316-17FORDHMGMUKillMia Hazelettset Ava Cheney+3.2
3416-18GMUFORDHMKillMila Micunovicset Giada Ianuale+3.9
3516-19FORDHMFORDHMKillTatum Holderied+5.0
3617-19FORDHMGMU×4Serve errFordham+2.8
3718-19GMUGMU×4Attack errMila Micunovic+4.9
3819-19GMUGMU×4Attack errMila Micunovic+5.6
3920-19GMUGMU×4BlockedTatum Holderiedblk Meredith Brown+5.9
4020-20GMUFORDHMKillTatum Holderiedset Giada Ianuale+4.4
4120-21FORDHMFORDHMAttack errKiera Hamilton+7.0
4221-21FORDHMGMU×3KillGabriella Gelfoundset Ava Cheney+4.9
4322-21GMUGMU×3Attack errKiera Hamilton+7.5
4423-21GMUGMU×3KillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+6.8
4523-22GMUFORDHMKillJohanna Franzenset Giada Ianuale+3.6
4624-22FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+5.7
4725-22GMUGMUAttack errSophia Kuyn+4.1
Set 3
10-1GMUFORDHMKillTatum Holderiedset Giada Ianuale+2.3
20-2FORDHMFORDHMAttack errKiera Hamilton+3.3
31-2FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+2.3
42-2GMUGMUAceGeorge Masonaced Lola Fernandez+3.2
52-3GMUFORDHM×3KillBridget Woodruffset Johanna Franzen+2.5
62-4FORDHMFORDHM×3KillSophia Kuynset Giada Ianuale+3.5
72-5FORDHMFORDHM×3AceFordhamaced Nia Thompson+3.5
83-5FORDHMGMU×3KillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+2.3
94-5GMUGMU×3KillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+3.3
105-5GMUGMU×3Attack errJohanna Franzen+3.4
115-6GMUFORDHMBlockedMeredith Brownblk Johanna Franzen+2.7
125-7FORDHMFORDHMAceFordham+3.7
136-7FORDHMGMU×5KillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+2.5
147-7GMUGMU×5Attack errSophia Kuyn+3.6
158-7GMUGMU×5AceGeorge Masonaced Lola Fernandez+3.5
169-7GMUGMU×5KillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+3.3
1710-7GMUGMU×5AceGeorge Mason+3.0
1810-8GMUFORDHMServe errGeorge Mason+2.1
1910-9FORDHMFORDHMKillMila Micunovicset Giada Ianuale+3.3
2011-9FORDHMGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+2.6
2111-10GMUFORDHMKillSophia Kuynset Avery Booker+2.6
2212-10FORDHMGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+2.7
2312-11GMUFORDHMKillTatum Holderiedset Giada Ianuale+2.6
2413-11FORDHMGMU×3Serve errFordham+2.8
2514-11GMUGMU×3AceGeorge Masonaced Mila Micunovic+3.4
2615-11GMUGMU×3AceGeorge Masonaced Mila Micunovic+2.9
2715-12GMUFORDHMKillTatum Holderiedset Giada Ianuale+1.8
2815-13FORDHMFORDHMAceFordhamaced Kiera Hamilton+3.1
2916-13FORDHMGMUAttack errTatum Holderied+2.7
3017-13GMUGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+3.0
3117-14GMUFORDHMKillJohanna Franzenset Giada Ianuale+1.8
3217-15FORDHMFORDHMBlockedGabriella Gelfoundblk Johanna Franzen, Sophia Kuyn+3.3
3318-15FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+2.9
3418-16GMUFORDHMKillSophia Kuynset Giada Ianuale+2.5
3519-16FORDHMGMUBlockedSophia Kuynblk Meredith Brown+3.0
3619-17GMUFORDHM×3KillJohanna Franzenset Giada Ianuale+2.5
3719-18FORDHMFORDHM×3Attack errNia Thompson+4.6
3819-19FORDHMFORDHM×3BlockedNia Thompsonblk Giada Ianuale, Sophia Kuyn+5.9
3920-19FORDHMGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+4.7
4020-20GMUFORDHMServe errGeorge Mason+4.8
4121-20FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+5.2
4221-21GMUFORDHMKillMila Micunovicset Giada Ianuale+5.3
4322-21FORDHMGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+5.9
4423-21GMUGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+7.5
4523-22GMUFORDHM×4KillTatum Holderiedset Giada Ianuale+4.0
4623-23FORDHMFORDHM×4Attack errKiera Hamilton+9.3
4723-24FORDHMFORDHM×4KillBridget Woodruffset Giada Ianuale+13.2
4823-25FORDHMFORDHM×4Attack errNia Thompson+14.5
Set 4
10-1FORDHMFORDHM×5AceFordhamaced Autumn Martinez-Robinson+3.9
20-2FORDHMFORDHM×5BlockedKiera Hamiltonblk Tatum Holderied+4.1
30-3FORDHMFORDHM×5BlockedJenna Huntblk Tatum Holderied+4.2
40-4FORDHMFORDHM×5KillBridget Woodruffset Tatum Holderied+4.1
50-5FORDHMFORDHM×5KillTatum Holderiedset Giada Ianuale+3.9
61-5FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+2.4
71-6GMUFORDHMKillBridget Woodruffset Giada Ianuale+3.0
81-7FORDHMFORDHMKillJohanna Franzenset Tatum Holderied+3.6
92-7FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+2.1
102-8GMUFORDHM×3KillBridget Woodruffset Giada Ianuale+2.7
112-9FORDHMFORDHM×3KillJohanna Franzenset Ana Del Angel Aguilar+3.2
122-10FORDHMFORDHM×3Attack errMeredith Brown+2.6
133-10FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+1.4
143-11GMUFORDHMKillBridget Woodruffset Giada Ianuale+1.9
153-12FORDHMFORDHMAttack errNia Thompson+2.0
164-12FORDHMGMU×4Attack errGiada Ianuale+1.0
175-12GMUGMU×4KillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.8
186-12GMUGMU×4KillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+2.3
197-12GMUGMU×4AceGeorge Mason+2.8
207-13GMUFORDHMKillGiada Ianualeset Giada Ianuale+2.7
218-13FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+2.0
228-14GMUFORDHMServe errGeorge Mason+2.7
239-14FORDHMGMUKillCaroline Rodriguezset Ava Cheney+2.0
249-15GMUFORDHMKillWhitney Woodrowset Giada Ianuale+2.7
2510-15FORDHMGMUAttack errMila Micunovic+1.9
2611-15GMUGMUAttack errMila Micunovic+3.4
2711-16GMUFORDHMKillTatum Holderiedset Giada Ianuale+3.3
2812-16FORDHMGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Meredith Brown+2.4
2912-17GMUFORDHMServe errGeorge Mason+3.3
3012-18FORDHMFORDHMKillJohanna Franzenset Giada Ianuale+3.4
3113-18FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+1.6
3214-18GMUGMUAttack errBridget Woodruff+3.1
3314-19GMUFORDHMKillBridget Woodruffset Giada Ianuale+3.3
3414-20FORDHMFORDHMAttack errNia Thompson+3.1
3515-20FORDHMGMUKillAva Cheney+1.3
3616-20GMUGMUAceGeorge Mason+2.7
3716-21GMUFORDHMKillJohanna Franzenset Giada Ianuale+3.1
3816-22FORDHMFORDHMAttack errJenna Hunt+2.5
3917-22FORDHMGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+0.8
4017-23GMUFORDHMKillSophia Kuynset Giada Ianuale+1.5
4118-23FORDHMGMUServe errFordham+0.5
4218-24GMUFORDHMKillMila Micunovicset Giada Ianuale+1.1
4318-25FORDHMFORDHMAceFordham+0.3

Score shown after each rally, George Mason first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).