Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Dayton def. George Mason 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Dayton 85.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Dayton won at George Mason 3-1 (25-27, 25-16, 25-20, 25-19) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Gabriela Machin Borges led Dayton with 14 kills; George Mason's Kiera Hamilton had a match-high 18.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set1234Sets
DAYTON252525253
GMU271620191

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Dayton led every phase, and nothing ever turned.

Win probability never moved more than 8.7 points on one rally; George Mason topped out at 32% in Set 1. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Dayton at 85%.

DaytonGeorge Mason
  • Break %+12.1 pts
    43.431.3

    43 of 99 on serve vs 26 of 83, so George Mason's sideout was 56.6%.

  • Hitting+.145
    .304.159

    Kills and errors: 61–12 vs 55–28.

  • Longest run+3
    63

    6 straight Dayton points in the third set stretched an 8–7 lead to 14–7. That set ended 25–20.

George Mason above 50Dayton belowMax swing 8.7%

DaytonGeorge Mason

Aces
Dayton 5·George Mason 2
Serve err
Dayton 11·George Mason 6
Blocks
Dayton 10·George Mason 30 BS · 20 BA vs 0 BS · 6 BA
Digs
Dayton 72·George Mason 80

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

George Mason above 50 · Dayton below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+8.7% GMUrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 8.7% to George Mason — set 1, DAYTON 25-27 GMU. Kill by Nia Thompson (set by Ava Cheney). GMU win probability 24% → 32%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DAYTON 86.6%13.4% GMU

Dayton wins

3-0
39.2%
3-1
31.5%
3-2
15.9%

George Mason wins

3-0
1.9%
3-1
4.2%
3-2
7.2%
DAYTON break %
44.3% vs this opp
GMU break %
35.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Nia ThompsonKill+8.7%

    Kill by Nia Thompson (set by Ava Cheney)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 25-27 GMU · GMU 24% → 32%

  2. 02
    Kamryn HuntAce+5.5%

    Ace by Kamryn Hunt on Autumn Martinez-Robinson

    Set 1 · DAYTON 23-23 GMU · DAYTON 76% → 81%

  3. 03
    Sidney SpradaKill+4.9%

    Kill by Sidney Sprada (set by Natalie Harrington)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 24-24 GMU · DAYTON 76% → 81%

  4. 04

    Kill by Kiera Hamilton (set by Ava Cheney)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 24-25 GMU · GMU 19% → 24%

  5. 05
    Sidney SpradaKill+4.9%

    Kill by Sidney Sprada (set by Natalie Harrington)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 25-25 GMU · DAYTON 76% → 81%

  6. 06
    Nia ThompsonKill+4.9%

    Kill by Nia Thompson (set by Ava Cheney)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 25-26 GMU · GMU 19% → 24%

  7. 07

    Kill by Kiera Hamilton (set by Ava Cheney)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 23-24 GMU · GMU 19% → 24%

  8. 08
    Jenna HuntKill+3.6%

    Kill by Jenna Hunt (set by Ava Cheney)

    Set 1 · DAYTON 21-23 GMU · GMU 23% → 27%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Daytonaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413239.282014131010.514.5
410222.36400030031.511.5
47113.462124600009
43215.06700140073.56.5
4214.25000000031.53.5
4104.2502511900002
414124.54200020031.515.5
410338.18410020031.511.5
4102.5002611800002
4000–000000000
4000–200900000
4000–2001600000
Team totals6112161.3045751172202010100
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418956.16100112002119
4131152.038010151010.514.5
49119.42100000010.59.5
44216.125000100215
4308.3754610900004
4000–0011410000
48519.158000100008
4000–2032430000
4000–001400000
Team totals5528170.159482680506382

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Dayton vs George Mason

Season series · Dayton leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 DAYTON · GMU 3

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 3 DAYTONGMU 3

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 5 DAYTONGMU 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 6 DAYTONGMU 3

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 3 DAYTONGMU 3

Bars above the line = George Mason leads, below = Dayton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Dayton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
79%11/14
38%6/16
2
67%10/15
44%8/18
3
69%9/13
36%5/14
4
64%9/14
47%8/17
5
82%9/11
50%9/18
6
56%9/16
44%7/16
All
69%57/83
43%43/99

George Mason

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%12/23
38%6/16
2
82%9/11
21%3/14
3
47%9/19
25%3/12
4
53%9/17
44%7/16
5
64%9/14
25%3/12
6
53%8/15
31%4/13
All
57%56/99
31%26/83

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#DAYTON-GMUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1DAYTONGMUAttack errAbigail Cresse+1.1
21-1GMUDAYTONAttack errNia Thompson+1.0
31-2DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.1
42-2GMUDAYTONAttack errNia Thompson+1.0
53-2DAYTONDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+1.5
63-3DAYTONGMUKillJenna Huntset Ava Cheney+1.0
74-3GMUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+1.0
84-4DAYTONGMU×3KillRylee Kinnellset Ava Cheney+1.1
94-5GMUGMU×3KillKiera Hamiltonset Autumn Martinez-Robinson+1.8
104-6GMUGMU×3KillRylee Kinnellset Ava Cheney+2.0
115-6GMUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Ava Cheney+1.2
125-7DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.4
136-7GMUDAYTONServe errGeorge Mason+1.2
146-8DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.4
157-8GMUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+1.3
167-9DAYTONGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+1.5
178-9GMUDAYTONAttack errNia Thompson+1.3
188-10DAYTONGMUServe errSidney Sprada+1.5
199-10GMUDAYTONKillAbigail Cresseset Natalie Harrington+1.3
209-11DAYTONGMU×3Attack errKamryn Hunt+1.6
219-12GMUGMU×3KillRylee Kinnellset Ava Cheney+2.4
229-13GMUGMU×3AceAva Cheneyaced Kamryn Hunt+2.4
2310-13GMUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+1.3
2410-14DAYTONGMUKillJenna Huntset Ava Cheney+1.7
2511-14GMUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+1.3
2612-14DAYTONDAYTONBlockedRylee Kinnellblk Ava Liening, Kaleigh Meritt+2.2
2712-15DAYTONGMUKillJenna Huntset Ava Cheney+1.9
2812-16GMUGMUBlockedAva Lieningblk Meredith Brown, Kiera Hamilton+2.6
2913-16GMUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Kaleigh Meritt+1.3
3013-17DAYTONGMU×3KillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+1.8
3113-18GMUGMU×3Attack errAbigail Cresse+2.3
3213-19GMUGMU×3KillKiera Hamilton+1.7
3314-19GMUDAYTONServe errGeorge Mason+0.6
3414-20DAYTONGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+1.1
3515-20GMUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+0.6
3615-21DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.0
3716-21GMUDAYTON×3KillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.5
3817-21DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errKiera Hamilton+1.1
3918-21DAYTONDAYTON×3KillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+1.7
4018-22DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+2.0
4119-22GMUDAYTON×3KillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+1.0
4220-22DAYTONDAYTON×3KillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+2.4
4321-22DAYTONDAYTON×3KillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+3.5
4421-23DAYTONGMUKillJenna Huntset Ava Cheney+3.6
4522-23GMUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+2.3
4623-23DAYTONDAYTONAceKamryn Huntaced Autumn Martinez-Robinson+5.5
4723-24DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+4.9
4824-24GMUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+4.9
4924-25DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+4.9
5025-25GMUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+4.9
5125-26DAYTONGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+4.9
5225-27GMUGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+8.7
Set 2
11-0GMUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+1.6
22-0DAYTONDAYTONAceSidney Spradaaced Autumn Martinez-Robinson+2.2
32-1DAYTONGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+1.5
43-1GMUDAYTONServe errGeorge Mason+1.5
53-2DAYTONGMUKillJenna Huntset Ava Cheney+1.5
64-2GMUDAYTON×5KillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+1.5
75-2DAYTONDAYTON×5Attack errRylee Kinnell+2.0
86-2DAYTONDAYTON×5KillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+1.7
97-2DAYTONDAYTON×5BlockedKiera Hamiltonblk Ava Liening, Gabriela Machin Borges+1.3
108-2DAYTONDAYTON×5AceRylee Slossaced Nia Thompson+1.0
118-3DAYTONGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+0.6
128-4GMUGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+1.2
139-4GMUDAYTON×4Attack errNia Thompson+0.9
1410-4DAYTONDAYTON×4KillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+1.0
1511-4DAYTONDAYTON×4KillAva Lieningset Rylee Sloss+0.7
1612-4DAYTONDAYTON×4KillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+0.5
1712-5DAYTONGMUServe errKamryn Hunt+0.2
1812-6GMUGMUBad setRylee Sloss+0.6
1913-6GMUDAYTONAttack errKiera Hamilton+0.5
2013-7DAYTONGMUAttack errKaleigh Meritt+0.4
2113-8GMUGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+0.8
2214-8GMUDAYTON×3KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.7
2315-8DAYTONDAYTON×3BlockedMeredith Brownblk Kaleigh Meritt, Abigail Cresse+0.7
2416-8DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errKiera Hamilton+0.4
2516-9DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+0.2
2617-9GMUDAYTONBlockedNia Thompsonblk Abigail Cresse, Charlotte Vinson+0.2
2717-10DAYTONGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+0.2
2818-10GMUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.2
2919-10DAYTONDAYTONAttack errKiera Hamilton+0.2
3019-11DAYTONGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+0.1
3120-11GMUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Lily Barry+0.1
3220-12DAYTONGMU×3KillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney·
3320-13GMUGMU×3AceNia Thompson+0.1
3420-14GMUGMU×3KillJenna Hunt+0.2
3521-14GMUDAYTON×3KillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+0.3
3622-14DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errRylee Kinnell+0.2
3723-14DAYTONDAYTON×3BlockedNia Thompsonblk Gabriela Machin Borges, Ava Liening·
3823-15DAYTONGMUKillRylee Kinnellset Ava Cheney·
3924-15GMUDAYTONKillAva Lieningset Rylee Sloss·
4024-16DAYTONGMUKillRylee Kinnellset Ava Cheney·
4125-16GMUDAYTONAttack errKiera Hamilton·
Set 3
11-0DAYTONDAYTONKillAbigail Cresseset Natalie Harrington+2.3
22-0DAYTONDAYTONAceNatalie Harringtonaced Autumn Martinez-Robinson+2.1
32-1DAYTONGMUKillMeredith Brownset Ava Cheney+1.4
43-1GMUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Sidney Sprada+1.4
54-1DAYTONDAYTONAttack errNia Thompson+1.9
64-2DAYTONGMUServe errSidney Sprada+1.2
74-3GMUGMUKillNia Thompsonset Natalie Harrington+2.2
85-3GMUDAYTONAttack errNia Thompson+1.5
95-4DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.5
105-5GMUGMUBlockedSidney Spradablk Nia Thompson, Jenna Hunt+2.7
116-5GMUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Lily Barry+1.7
126-6DAYTONGMUServe errRylee Sloss+1.9
137-6GMUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+1.8
148-6DAYTONDAYTONAttack errRylee Kinnell+2.5
158-7DAYTONGMUServe errKamryn Hunt+1.7
169-7GMUDAYTON×6KillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+1.7
1710-7DAYTONDAYTON×6KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+2.2
1811-7DAYTONDAYTON×6KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Morgan Asleson+1.8
1912-7DAYTONDAYTON×6KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+1.4
2013-7DAYTONDAYTON×6BlockedRylee Kinnellblk Abigail Cresse, Kaleigh Meritt+1.0
2114-7DAYTONDAYTON×6KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.7
2214-8DAYTONGMU×3KillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+0.3
2314-9GMUGMU×3KillAva Cheney+0.7
2414-10GMUGMU×3KillMeredith Brownset Ava Cheney+1.1
2515-10GMUDAYTON×3KillAbigail Cresseset Rylee Sloss+0.9
2616-10DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errKiera Hamilton+1.0
2717-10DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errNia Thompson+0.6
2817-11DAYTONGMUServe errNatalie Harrington+0.3
2918-11GMUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Avery Booker+0.4
3018-12DAYTONGMU×3Attack errNia Thompson+0.2
3118-13GMUGMU×3KillAva Cheneyset Natalie Harrington+0.6
3218-14GMUGMU×3Attack errKamryn Hunt+1.0
3319-14GMUDAYTONBlockedNia Thompsonblk Abigail Cresse, Charlotte Vinson+0.9
3420-14DAYTONDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.8
3520-15DAYTONGMUKillAva Cheney+0.3
3620-16GMUGMUKillNia Thompsonset Autumn Martinez-Robinson+0.8
3721-16GMUDAYTONKillNatalie Harrington+0.8
3821-17DAYTONGMUKillJenna Huntset Ava Cheney+0.5
3922-17GMUDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+0.8
4022-18DAYTONGMUServe errKamryn Hunt+0.4
4123-18GMUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.6
4223-19DAYTONGMUAttack errKaleigh Meritt+0.3
4324-19GMUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.5
4424-20DAYTONGMUKillMeredith Brownset Ava Cheney+0.1
4525-20GMUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.3
Set 4
11-0GMUDAYTON×3Serve errGeorge Mason+1.1
22-0DAYTONDAYTON×3KillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+1.6
33-0DAYTONDAYTON×3KillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+1.4
43-1DAYTONGMU×3Serve errSidney Sprada+0.9
53-2GMUGMU×3KillJenna Huntset Ava Cheney+1.6
63-3GMUGMU×3Attack errCharlotte Vinson+1.9
74-3GMUDAYTONServe errGeorge Mason+1.2
84-4DAYTONGMUServe errAbigail Cresse+1.4
95-4GMUDAYTON×3KillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+1.3
106-4DAYTONDAYTON×3KillRylee Slossset Ava Cheney+1.8
117-4DAYTONDAYTON×3KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+1.5
127-5DAYTONGMUKillRylee Kinnellset Ava Cheney+1.0
138-5GMUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+1.0
148-6DAYTONGMUKillJenna Huntset Ava Cheney+1.0
159-6GMUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+1.1
1610-6DAYTONDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Morgan Asleson+1.3
1710-7DAYTONGMU×3KillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+0.8
1810-8GMUGMU×3BlockedGabriela Machin Borgesblk Kiera Hamilton, Meredith Brown+1.6
1910-9GMUGMU×3Attack errKaleigh Meritt+2.0
2011-9GMUDAYTONKillKaleigh Merittset Rylee Sloss+1.4
2111-10DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.4
2211-11GMUGMUKillNia Thompsonset Ava Cheney+2.5
2312-11GMUDAYTON×3KillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+1.7
2413-11DAYTONDAYTON×3BlockedNia Thompsonblk Abigail Cresse, Charlotte Vinson+2.3
2514-11DAYTONDAYTON×3AceSidney Spradaaced Avery Booker+1.9
2614-12DAYTONGMUAttack errCharlotte Vinson+1.2
2715-12GMUDAYTONServe errGeorge Mason+1.3
2815-13DAYTONGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.2
2916-13GMUDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+1.3
3016-14DAYTONGMUKillRylee Kinnellset Ava Cheney+1.2
3117-14GMUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+1.4
3218-14DAYTONDAYTONAttack errJenna Hunt+1.6
3318-15DAYTONGMUServe errKamryn Hunt+0.8
3419-15GMUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+1.1
3520-15DAYTONDAYTONBlockedKiera Hamiltonblk Gabriela Machin Borges, Abigail Cresse+1.0
3620-16DAYTONGMUKillRylee Kinnellset Ava Cheney+0.4
3721-16GMUDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+0.6
3821-17DAYTONGMUKillMeredith Brownset Autumn Martinez-Robinson+0.4
3921-18GMUGMUKillKiera Hamiltonset Ava Cheney+1.0
4022-18GMUDAYTON×3KillKaleigh Merittset Natalie Harrington+1.0
4123-18DAYTONDAYTON×3BlockedMeredith Brownblk Kamryn Hunt, Abigail Cresse+0.8
4224-18DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errKiera Hamilton+0.3
4324-19DAYTONGMUServe errSidney Sprada·
4425-19GMUDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Dayton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).