Butler vs St. John's (NY): St. John's (NY) Wins 3-1 (Oct 3)

Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026

1:3

RallyIQ pre-match: St. John's (NY) 50.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 3:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

St. John's (NY) beat visiting Butler 3-1 (25-18, 25-21, 13-25, 25-20) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. St. John's (NY)'s Carola Tesoro led with 16 kills, and Rashanny Solano Smith added 22 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Oct 3

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
BUTLER	18	21	25	20	1
STJOHN	25	25	13	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

St. John's (NY) trailed 1–7 in the second and took that set, dropped the third, and won the match 3–1.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are St. John's (NY)'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. St. John's (NY) went in as RallyIQ's 51% pick.

Turning point 1: Set 2 · Butler 14–11 St. John's (NY)
7 straight St. John's (NY) points turned an 11–14 deficit into an 18–14 lead.
St. John's (NY) 60% → 83%
Turning point 2: Set 4 · Butler 17–15 St. John's (NY)
5 straight St. John's (NY) points turned a 15–17 deficit into a 20–17 lead.
St. John's (NY) 65% → 92%

St. John's (NY) above 50Butler belowMax swing 6.0%

ButlerSt. John's (NY)

Sideout %: Butler 50.6·St. John's (NY) 52.9
Break %: Butler 47.1·St. John's (NY) 49.4
Hitting: Butler .211·St. John's (NY) .218
Longest run: Butler 6·St. John's (NY) 7

Carola Tesoro
16 kills on .231, 19.5 points; 4 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

St. John's (NY) above 50 · Butler below

Biggest swing: 6.0% to St. John's (NY) — set 4, BUTLER 17-18 STJOHN. Kill by Carola Tesoro (set by Rashanny Solano Smith). STJOHN win probability 74% → 80%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUTLER 39.0%61.0% STJOHN

Butler wins

3-0

8.4%

3-1

14.2%

3-2

16.4%

St. John's (NY) wins

3-0

17.7%

3-1

23.3%

3-2

19.9%

BUTLER break %: 42.2% vs this opp
STJOHN break %: 44.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Carola TesoroKill+6.0%
Kill by Carola Tesoro (set by Rashanny Solano Smith)
Set 4 · BUTLER 17-18 STJOHN · STJOHN 74% → 80%
02
Zoe McDonaldAttack error+5.9%
Attack error by Zoe McDonald
Set 4 · BUTLER 17-19 STJOHN · STJOHN 80% → 86%
03
Chase LemmingAttack error+5.7%
Attack error by Chase Lemming
Set 4 · BUTLER 19-22 STJOHN · STJOHN 88% → 94%
04
Carola TesoroKill+5.6%
Kill by Carola Tesoro (set by Maggie Carcillo)
Set 4 · BUTLER 17-17 STJOHN · STJOHN 69% → 74%
05
Teodora StamenkovicAttack error+5.5%
Attack error by Teodora Stamenkovic
Set 4 · BUTLER 19-20 STJOHN · BUTLER 11% → 17%
06
Elise WardAttack error+5.2%
Attack error by Elise Ward
Set 4 · BUTLER 17-20 STJOHN · STJOHN 86% → 92%
07
Carola TesoroKill+5.1%
Kill by Carola Tesoro (set by Maggie Carcillo)
Set 4 · BUTLER 19-21 STJOHN · STJOHN 83% → 88%
08
Barbara Costa dos SantosKill+4.3%
Kill by Barbara Costa dos Santos (set by Maggie Carcillo)
Set 4 · BUTLER 14-13 STJOHN · STJOHN 65% → 70%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Butleraway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Elise WardOH	4	10	4	23	.261	0	1	1	2	0	0	5	2.5	13.5
8Raegan DurbinOH	4	12	0	30	.400	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	13
17Zoe McDonaldMB	4	5	5	17	.000	0	2	1	2	0	2	6	5	12
3Chase LemmingOH	4	11	8	31	.097	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	11.5
4Ava HunterS	4	0	1	1	-1.000	27	1	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
13Carly SlusserMB	2	2	2	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Maria NixOH	4	6	3	16	.188	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
18Marin ThaxtonDS	4	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	2
1Sarah KempfS	4	0	0	1	.000	19	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
5Jersey LoyerDS	4	0	0	0	–	3	0	3	13	2	0	0	0	0
14Karen DutroMB	2	4	0	5	.800	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
6Aesha VogtDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		50	23	128	.211	50	7	7	39	5	2	16	10	84

St. John's (NY)home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Carola TesoroOH	4	16	7	39	.231	0	2	2	7	2	1	1	1.5	19.5
7Lejla HadžiredžepovicOH	4	10	5	27	.185	0	0	0	5	2	0	2	1	11
1Teodora StamenkovicMB	4	4	2	9	.222	0	0	0	2	0	2	6	5	9
10Barbara Costa dos SantosOH	4	6	5	15	.067	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
15Chloe' BellMB	4	6	2	11	.364	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6
26Maggie CarcilloS	4	1	1	2	.000	27	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
2Kendall WhiteOH	4	6	1	17	.294	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
9Rashanny Solano SmithL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	5	1	0	22	0	0	0	0	1
6Katianna BetancurL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
4Martina CapponcelliS	3	0	0	0	–	9	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
12Amanda CaputiS	2	0	0	0	–	7	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
3Angelica RodriguezOPP	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Soheila CirelliOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
11Brooke BoylesOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
33Sumaiyya HarrisMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	24	124	.218	48	5	3	54	7	3	14	10	88

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Butler vs St. John's (NY)

Season series · St. John's (NY) leads 2-0

Sat, Oct 3, 2026Butler at St. John's (NY) · St. John's (NY) won 3-1This match
Fri, Oct 30, 2026St. John's (NY) at Butler · St. John's (NY) won 3-2Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 BUTLER · STJOHN 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 BUTLERSTJOHN 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 5 BUTLERSTJOHN 7

Set 3

25-13

Longest run 6 BUTLERSTJOHN 4

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 4 BUTLERSTJOHN 6

Bars above the line = St. John's (NY) leads, below = Butler leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Butler

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	78%7/9	53%8/15
2	25%6/24	36%4/11
3	55%6/11	45%5/11
4	42%5/12	25%2/8
5	45%5/11	50%5/10
6	83%5/6	17%1/6
All	47%34/73	41%25/61

St. John's (NY)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	33%3/9
2	55%6/11	14%1/7
3	55%6/11	76%19/25
4	60%6/10	54%7/13
5	71%5/7	55%6/11
6	83%5/6	38%3/8
All	59%36/61	53%39/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

172 rallies

#	BUTLER-STJOHN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	STJOHN	STJOHN	Blocked	Carly Slusser	blk Teodora Stamenkovic	+2.5
2	0-2	STJOHN	STJOHN	Blocked	Carly Slusser	blk Lejla Hadžiredžepovic, Amanda Caputi	+2.5
3	1-2	STJOHN	BUTLER	Attack err	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic		+1.8
4	1-3	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Amanda Caputi	+1.9
5	1-4	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+2.4
6	2-4	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+1.7
7	3-4	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+2.5
8	3-5	BUTLER	STJOHN×3	Serve err	Butler		+2.0
9	3-6	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+2.5
10	3-7	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Ace	St. John's (NY)	aced Jersey Loyer	+2.4
11	4-7	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+1.6
12	4-8	BUTLER	STJOHN×5	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+1.8
13	4-9	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+2.1
14	4-10	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+1.8
15	4-11	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Bad set	Sarah Kempf		+1.5
16	4-12	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Ace	St. John's (NY)	aced Chase Lemming	+1.1
17	5-12	STJOHN	BUTLER	Serve err	St. John's (NY)		+0.6
18	5-13	BUTLER	STJOHN×4	Blocked	Maria Nix	blk Carola Tesoro	+0.8
19	5-14	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Barbara Costa dos Santos	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.8
20	5-15	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Ace	St. John's (NY)	aced Chase Lemming	+0.5
21	5-16	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Ace	St. John's (NY)	aced Jersey Loyer	+0.3
22	6-16	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+0.1
23	6-17	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
24	7-17	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+0.1
25	7-18	BUTLER	STJOHN	Bad set	Chase Lemming		+0.2
26	8-18	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Ava Hunter	+0.1
27	8-19	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Angelica Rodriguez	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
28	9-19	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Jersey Loyer	+0.1
29	9-20	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
30	10-20	STJOHN	BUTLER	Attack err	Angelica Rodriguez		·
31	11-20	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Carola Tesoro		+0.1
32	11-21	BUTLER	STJOHN	Serve err	Butler		+0.1
33	12-21	STJOHN	BUTLER×4	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	·
34	13-21	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Attack err	Barbara Costa dos Santos		+0.1
35	14-21	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Blocked	Barbara Costa dos Santos	blk Zoe McDonald	+0.2
36	15-21	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+0.4
37	15-22	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Barbara Costa dos Santos	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.5
38	16-22	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Sarah Kempf	+0.2
39	16-23	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.4
40	17-23	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Sarah Kempf	+0.1
41	17-24	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
42	18-24	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Ava Hunter	·
43	18-25	BUTLER	STJOHN	Serve err	Butler		+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+2.5
2	2-0	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Blocked	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	blk Zoe McDonald, Elise Ward	+2.5
3	3-0	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+2.4
4	4-0	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+2.2
5	5-0	BUTLER	BUTLER×5	Blocked	Barbara Costa dos Santos	blk Zoe McDonald, Chase Lemming	+2.0
6	5-1	BUTLER	STJOHN	Serve err	Butler		+1.3
7	6-1	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+1.5
8	7-1	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Ava Hunter	+1.8
9	7-2	BUTLER	STJOHN×3	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Amanda Caputi	+1.1
10	7-3	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Blocked	Chase Lemming	blk Kendall White, Teodora Stamenkovic	+1.8
11	7-4	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+2.1
12	8-4	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Sarah Kempf	+1.8
13	8-5	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Amanda Caputi	+1.6
14	9-5	STJOHN	BUTLER	Blocked	Carola Tesoro	blk Zoe McDonald	+1.8
15	9-6	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Martina Capponcelli	+1.6
16	9-7	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Maggie Carcillo	+2.5
17	10-7	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+2.1
18	10-8	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Maggie Carcillo	+1.9
19	11-8	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Carly Slusser	set Ava Hunter	+2.1
20	12-8	BUTLER	BUTLER	Ace	Butler	aced Carola Tesoro	+2.6
21	12-9	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+1.7
22	12-10	STJOHN	STJOHN	Blocked	Chase Lemming	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Barbara Costa dos Santos	+2.6
23	13-10	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+2.3
24	13-11	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+2.0
25	14-11	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+2.3
26	14-12	BUTLER	STJOHN×7	Blocked	Chase Lemming	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Kendall White	+2.0
27	14-13	STJOHN	STJOHN×7	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Martina Capponcelli	+3.2
28	14-14	STJOHN	STJOHN×7	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		+3.6
29	14-15	STJOHN	STJOHN×7	Blocked	Maria Nix	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Kendall White	+3.8
30	14-16	STJOHN	STJOHN×7	Attack err	Chase Lemming		+3.8
31	14-17	STJOHN	STJOHN×7	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Martina Capponcelli	+3.4
32	14-18	STJOHN	STJOHN×7	Blocked	Zoe McDonald	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Carola Tesoro	+2.9
33	15-18	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Sarah Kempf	+1.6
34	16-18	BUTLER	BUTLER	Blocked	Carola Tesoro	blk Zoe McDonald, Maria Nix	+3.0
35	16-19	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Kendall White	set Martina Capponcelli	+2.8
36	17-19	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+2.2
37	17-20	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Martina Capponcelli	+2.9
38	17-21	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+3.0
39	18-21	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+1.4
40	18-22	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Maggie Carcillo	+2.2
41	18-23	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Elise Ward		+1.7
42	19-23	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+0.5
43	19-24	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Barbara Costa dos Santos	set Maggie Carcillo	+1.0
44	20-24	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+0.2
45	21-24	BUTLER	BUTLER	Blocked	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	blk Zoe McDonald, Elise Ward	+0.8
46	21-25	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+1.3
Set 3
1	0-1	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Martina Capponcelli	+1.6
2	1-1	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Ava Hunter	+1.2
3	1-2	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Barbara Costa dos Santos	set Maggie Carcillo	+1.2
4	2-2	STJOHN	BUTLER	Serve err	St. John's (NY)		+1.2
5	2-3	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+1.2
6	3-3	STJOHN	BUTLER×3	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+1.2
7	4-3	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Ace	Butler	aced Barbara Costa dos Santos	+1.7
8	5-3	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Blocked	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	blk Ava Hunter, Zoe McDonald	+1.7
9	5-4	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+1.2
10	6-4	STJOHN	BUTLER×6	Kill	Maria Nix	set Raegan Durbin	+1.3
11	7-4	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+1.7
12	8-4	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Ace	Butler	aced Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	+1.6
13	9-4	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Jersey Loyer	+1.4
14	10-4	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+1.2
15	11-4	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Ace	Butler	aced Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	+1.0
16	11-5	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Soheila Cirelli	set Martina Capponcelli	+0.5
17	12-5	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Maria Nix	set Sarah Kempf	+0.7
18	13-5	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+0.7
19–20	14-6		BUTLER · STJOHN	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.1
21	15-6	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Sarah Kempf	+0.5
22	16-6	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Attack err	Carola Tesoro		+0.3
23	17-6	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Blocked	Carola Tesoro	blk Karen Dutro, Elise Ward	+0.2
24	18-6	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Blocked	Carola Tesoro	blk Karen Dutro, Elise Ward	+0.1
25	19-6	BUTLER	BUTLER×6	Ace	Butler	aced Carola Tesoro	·
26	19-7	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Kendall White	set Rashanny Solano Smith	·
27	20-7	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Ava Hunter	·
28	21-7	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Chloe' Bell		·
29	21-8	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	·
30	22-8	STJOHN	BUTLER	Serve err	St. John's (NY)		·
31	23-8	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Barbara Costa dos Santos		·
32	23-9	BUTLER	STJOHN	Attack err	Elise Ward		·
33	24-9	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Ava Hunter	·
34	24-10	BUTLER	STJOHN×4	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	·
35	24-11	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		·
36	24-12	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Blocked	Chase Lemming	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	·
37	24-13	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Ace	St. John's (NY)		·
38	25-13	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Zoe McDonald	set Sarah Kempf	·
Set 4
1	1-0	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Ava Hunter	+3.3
2	2-0	BUTLER	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+3.3
3	2-1	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+2.4
4	3-1	STJOHN	BUTLER×4	Kill	Karen Dutro	set Ava Hunter	+2.5
5	4-1	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Blocked	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	blk Elise Ward, Zoe McDonald	+3.3
6	5-1	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Attack err	Kendall White		+3.1
7	6-1	BUTLER	BUTLER×4	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Jersey Loyer	+2.8
8	6-2	BUTLER	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Elise Ward		+1.8
9	6-3	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Kill	Kendall White	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+2.8
10	6-4	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+3.2
11	6-5	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Chase Lemming		+3.5
12	6-6	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Blocked	Ava Hunter	blk Teodora Stamenkovic	+3.7
13	6-7	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		+3.8
14	7-7	STJOHN	BUTLER×3	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+2.8
15	8-7	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+3.9
16	9-7	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Teodora Stamenkovic		+3.9
17	9-8	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Martina Capponcelli	+2.8
18	10-8	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Sarah Kempf	+3.0
19	11-8	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Carola Tesoro		+3.8
20	11-9	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Kendall White	set Martina Capponcelli	+2.6
21	11-10	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Maria Nix		+3.9
22	12-10	STJOHN	BUTLER×3	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Sarah Kempf	+3.2
23	13-10	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Ace	Butler		+4.1
24	14-10	BUTLER	BUTLER×3	Attack err	Chloe' Bell		+3.6
25	14-11	BUTLER	STJOHN×3	Kill	Barbara Costa dos Santos	set Maggie Carcillo	+2.2
26	14-12	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+3.7
27	14-13	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Barbara Costa dos Santos	set Maggie Carcillo	+4.3
28	15-13	STJOHN	BUTLER	Attack err	Barbara Costa dos Santos		+3.6
29	15-14	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Maggie Carcillo	+3.3
30	16-14	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Raegan Durbin	set Ava Hunter	+3.7
31	16-15	BUTLER	STJOHN	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+3.4
32	17-15	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Elise Ward	set Ava Hunter	+3.9
33	17-16	BUTLER	STJOHN×5	Serve err	Butler		+3.6
34	17-17	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+5.6
35	17-18	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+6.0
36	17-19	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Attack err	Zoe McDonald		+5.9
37	17-20	STJOHN	STJOHN×5	Attack err	Elise Ward		+5.2
38	18-20	STJOHN	BUTLER	Kill	Chase Lemming	set Ava Hunter	+3.0
39	19-20	BUTLER	BUTLER	Attack err	Teodora Stamenkovic		+5.5
40	19-21	BUTLER	STJOHN×4	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+5.1
41	19-22	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Chase Lemming		+5.7
42	19-23	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Chase Lemming		+3.8
43	19-24	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Maggie Carcillo	set Maggie Carcillo	+1.8
44	20-24	STJOHN	BUTLER	Attack err	Maggie Carcillo		+0.3
45	20-25	BUTLER	STJOHN	Serve err	Butler		+0.8

Score shown after each rally, Butler first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

St. John's (NY) def. Butler 3–1

St. John's (NY) trailed 1–7 in the second and took that set, dropped the third, and won the match 3–1.