Final · 4 setsFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UC Santa Barbara def. Cal St. Fullerton 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: UC Santa Barbara 95.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 8:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UC Santa Barbara beat visiting Cal St. Fullerton 3-1 (25-13, 25-23, 18-25, 26-24) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. UC Santa Barbara's Gabi Martinez led with 20 kills.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set1234Sets
CSFULL132325241
UCSB252518263

Match story · written from the play-by-play

UC Santa Barbara led in all four phases.

No single rally moved win probability more than 5.0 points. Cal St. Fullerton peaked at 14% in Set 4. These are the numbers behind it. UC Santa Barbara went in as RallyIQ's 95% pick.

Cal St. FullertonUC Santa Barbara
  • Longest run+0
    66

    UC Santa Barbara scored 6 straight in the first set to stretch an 11–7 lead to 17–7. Final score of the set: 25–13.

UC Santa Barbara above 50Cal St. Fullerton belowMax swing 5.0%

Cal St. FullertonUC Santa Barbara

Hitting
Cal St. Fullerton .128·UC Santa Barbara .167
Aces
Cal St. Fullerton 4·UC Santa Barbara 6
Serve err
Cal St. Fullerton 8·UC Santa Barbara 9
Blocks
Cal St. Fullerton 9·UC Santa Barbara 102 BS · 14 BA vs 6 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Cal St. Fullerton 48·UC Santa Barbara 56

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UC Santa Barbara above 50 · Cal St. Fullerton below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.0% CSFULLrally 179 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.0% to Cal St. Fullerton — set 4, CSFULL 24-24 UCSB. Auburn Tomkinson stuffed by Zariah Crosby & Parys Taylor. UCSB win probability 97% → 92%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CSFULL 5.6%94.4% UCSB

Cal St. Fullerton wins

3-0
0.6%
3-1
1.6%
3-2
3.3%

UC Santa Barbara wins

3-0
53.8%
3-1
30.1%
3-2
10.5%
CSFULL break %
36.0% vs this opp
UCSB break %
48.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Auburn Tomkinson stuffed by Zariah Crosby & Parys Taylor

    Set 4 · CSFULL 24-24 UCSB · CSFULL 3% → 8%

  2. 02
    Arianna EllisAttack error+4.0%

    Attack error by Arianna Ellis

    Set 4 · CSFULL 24-26 UCSB · UCSB 96% → 100%

  3. 03

    Kill by Auburn Tomkinson (set by Milan Rex)

    Set 4 · CSFULL 24-25 UCSB · UCSB 92% → 96%

  4. 04
    Gabi MartinezAttack error+2.7%

    Attack error by Gabi Martinez

    Set 4 · CSFULL 16-13 UCSB · CSFULL 10% → 13%

  5. 05
    Ayva OstovarKill+2.6%

    Kill by Ayva Ostovar (set by Sibley Oster)

    Set 4 · CSFULL 18-18 UCSB · UCSB 90% → 93%

  6. 06

    Kill by Emma McDermott (set by Gabi Martinez)

    Set 4 · CSFULL 18-19 UCSB · UCSB 93% → 95%

  7. 07
    Emery TubbsBlock+2.4%

    Hannah Hass stuffed by Emery Tubbs

    Set 4 · CSFULL 17-16 UCSB · UCSB 88% → 90%

  8. 08

    Auburn Tomkinson stuffed by Zariah Crosby & Kaia Herweg

    Set 4 · CSFULL 14-12 UCSB · CSFULL 8% → 10%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411631.16111051031.513.5
49220.3501000006312
45215.20000230111.56.5
43717-.23500013010.53.5
4004.00022011000000
2149-.333000000001
4219.11101290010.53.5
4001.0003231010002
4002.0001100600000
35112.33300030111.56.5
35113.30800000010.55.5
1000–000100000
Team totals4124133.1283848486214985
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4201147.191123130010.522.5
49225.28010161010.59.5
47729.00000020010.57.5
4328.12500020313.56.5
4102.50022131100002
1000–000000000
47312.33311130334.512.5
42211.00000010010.52.5
4102.50012111100002
4000–010000001
4002.000700700000
Team totals5027138.1674469564681094

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Cal St. Fullerton vs UC Santa Barbara

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 CSFULL · UCSB 6

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 2 CSFULLUCSB 6

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 5 CSFULLUCSB 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 3 CSFULLUCSB 3

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 6 CSFULLUCSB 4

Bars above the line = UC Santa Barbara leads, below = Cal St. Fullerton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Cal St. Fullerton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%8/16
54%7/13
2
78%7/9
20%2/10
3
67%6/9
25%2/8
4
86%6/7
45%5/11
5
33%5/15
45%5/11
6
42%5/12
38%3/8
All
54%37/68
39%24/61

UC Santa Barbara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%8/15
46%6/13
2
100%7/7
38%5/13
3
50%6/12
14%1/7
4
55%6/11
25%2/8
5
63%5/8
58%7/12
6
63%5/8
67%10/15
All
61%37/61
46%31/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

179 rallies

#CSFULL-UCSBSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UCSBUCSBKillMilan Rex+0.6
20-2UCSBUCSBAttack errKaia Herweg+0.5
31-2UCSBCSFULLServe errUC Santa Barbara+0.4
41-3CSFULLUCSBServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.4
51-4UCSBUCSBBlockedBella Rislingblk Bella Mathis, Gabi Martinez+0.4
62-4UCSBCSFULLServe errUC Santa Barbara+0.3
72-5CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Cortni Youngblood+0.3
82-6UCSBUCSBAceUC Santa Barbaraaced Sofia Shine+0.4
93-6UCSBCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.3
104-6CSFULLCSFULLBlockedAuburn Tomkinsonblk Zariah Crosby, Sofia Shine+0.5
114-7CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+0.3
125-7UCSBCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.4
136-7CSFULLCSFULLAceMia Feldhaus+0.6
146-8CSFULLUCSB×4Serve errMia Feldhaus+0.4
156-9UCSBUCSB×4Serve errGabi Martinez+0.5
166-10UCSBUCSB×4AceUC Santa Barbara+0.4
176-11UCSBUCSB×4AceUC Santa Barbaraaced Sofia Shine+0.3
187-11UCSBCSFULLServe errGabi Martinez+0.2
197-12CSFULLUCSB×6Attack errBella Risling+0.2
207-13UCSBUCSB×6BlockedSofia Shineblk Bella Mathis+0.2
217-14UCSBUCSB×6BlockedSofia Shineblk Bella Mathis+0.1
227-15UCSBUCSB×6KillGabi Martinezset Ayva Ostovar+0.1
237-16UCSBUCSB×6Attack errSofia Shine·
247-17UCSBUCSB×6KillAvery Gibbsset Sibley Oster·
258-17UCSBCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster·
268-18CSFULLUCSB×3KillGabi Martinezset Emma McDermott·
278-19UCSBUCSB×3AceUC Santa Barbaraaced Mia Feldhaus·
288-20UCSBUCSB×3Attack errKaia Herweg·
299-20UCSBCSFULLServe errGabi Martinez·
309-21CSFULLUCSBServe errCal St. Fullerton·
319-22UCSBUCSBBad setBella Risling·
3210-22UCSBCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster·
3310-23CSFULLUCSBBlockedKaia Herwegblk Bella Mathis, Auburn Tomkinson·
3411-23UCSBCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Sibley Oster·
3511-24CSFULLUCSBKillAuburn Tomkinsonset Milan Rex·
3612-24UCSBCSFULLAttack errAvery Gibbs·
3713-24CSFULLCSFULLKillKaia Herweg·
3813-25CSFULLUCSBServe errCal St. Fullerton·
Set 2
10-1CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+0.3
20-2UCSBUCSBKillAuburn Tomkinsonset Milan Rex+0.3
31-2UCSBCSFULLAttack errGabi Martinez+0.3
41-3CSFULLUCSBKillEmma McDermottset Milan Rex+0.2
52-3UCSBCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.3
62-4CSFULLUCSB×3KillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+0.2
72-5UCSBUCSB×3KillEmery Tubbs+0.3
82-6UCSBUCSB×3Attack errBella Risling+0.2
93-6UCSBCSFULLBlockedAuburn Tomkinsonblk Kaia Herweg, Zariah Crosby+0.2
103-7CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+0.2
114-7UCSBCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Jaiden Mojica+0.2
124-8CSFULLUCSBKillEmery Tubbsset Ayva Ostovar+0.2
134-9UCSBUCSBAttack errBella Risling+0.2
145-9UCSBCSFULLAttack errEmery Tubbs+0.1
155-10CSFULLUCSBAttack errSofia Shine+0.1
166-10UCSBCSFULL×5KillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+0.1
177-10CSFULLCSFULL×5KillNeeva Gaine+0.2
188-10CSFULLCSFULL×5BlockedAvery Gibbsblk Kaia Herweg, Hannah Hass+0.3
199-10CSFULLCSFULL×5AceParys Taylor+0.5
2010-10CSFULLCSFULL×5Attack errAvery Gibbs+0.6
2110-11CSFULLUCSBServe errParys Taylor+0.4
2211-11UCSBCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+0.5
2311-12CSFULLUCSBKillBella Mathisset Milan Rex+0.4
2412-12UCSBCSFULL×3Attack errGabi Martinez+0.5
2513-12CSFULLCSFULL×3KillParys Taylorset Jaiden Mojica+0.8
2614-12CSFULLCSFULL×3KillKaia Herwegset Zariah Crosby+0.9
2714-13CSFULLUCSBKillAuburn Tomkinsonset Bella Mathis+0.6
2815-13UCSBCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Jaiden Mojica+0.7
2916-13CSFULLCSFULLAttack errGabi Martinez+1.1
3016-14CSFULLUCSBKillAuburn Tomkinsonset Milan Rex+0.6
3116-15UCSBUCSBAceUC Santa Barbaraaced Sofia Shine+0.9
3217-15UCSBCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Jaiden Mojica+0.8
3318-15CSFULLCSFULLAceMia Feldhaus+1.2
3418-16CSFULLUCSB×4Serve errMia Feldhaus+0.7
3518-17UCSBUCSB×4Bad setJaiden Mojica+1.0
3618-18UCSBUCSB×4BlockedKaia Herwegblk Emery Tubbs, Emma McDermott+1.0
3718-19UCSBUCSB×4BlockedHannah Hassblk Emery Tubbs+1.0
3819-19UCSBCSFULLAttack errEmma McDermott+0.8
3920-19CSFULLCSFULLKillNeeva Gaineset Mia Feldhaus+1.3
4020-20CSFULLUCSBKillAvery Gibbsset Ayva Ostovar+0.9
4120-21UCSBUCSBAttack errNeeva Gaine+1.2
4221-21UCSBCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+0.9
4322-21CSFULLCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+1.7
4422-22CSFULLUCSB×3KillBella Mathisset Ayva Ostovar+1.1
4522-23UCSBUCSB×3KillAuburn Tomkinsonset Milan Rex+1.7
4622-24UCSBUCSB×3KillBella Mathisset Milan Rex+1.3
4723-24UCSBCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Sibley Oster+0.5
4823-25CSFULLUCSBKillBella Mathisset Milan Rex+1.1
Set 3
10-1UCSBUCSBKillBella Mathisset Milan Rex+0.2
21-1UCSBCSFULLKillNeeva Gaineset Sibley Oster+0.1
32-1CSFULLCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Milan Rex+0.2
42-2CSFULLUCSBBlockedKaia Herwegblk Bella Mathis+0.1
53-2UCSBCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.2
63-3CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+0.1
74-3UCSBCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Mia Feldhaus+0.2
85-3CSFULLCSFULLAceKaia Herwegaced Emma McDermott+0.3
95-4CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+0.2
106-4UCSBCSFULL×3KillArianna Ellisset Jaiden Mojica+0.2
117-4CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errGabi Martinez+0.3
128-4CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errGabi Martinez+0.3
138-5CSFULLUCSB×3Serve errCal St. Fullerton+0.2
148-6UCSBUCSB×3KillEmma McDermottset Ayva Ostovar+0.3
158-7UCSBUCSB×3KillEmma McDermottset Ayva Ostovar+0.3
169-7UCSBCSFULLServe errUC Santa Barbara+0.2
179-8CSFULLUCSBServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.2
189-9UCSBUCSBAttack errSofia Shine+0.3
1910-9UCSBCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+0.2
2011-9CSFULLCSFULLBlockedBella Mathisblk Hannah Hass+0.3
2111-10CSFULLUCSBKillEmma McDermottset Ayva Ostovar+0.2
2212-10UCSBCSFULLServe errUC Santa Barbara+0.3
2313-10CSFULLCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.4
2413-11CSFULLUCSBKillBella Mathisset Milan Rex+0.2
2514-11UCSBCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Sibley Oster+0.3
2614-12CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+0.2
2715-12UCSBCSFULL×3Serve errUC Santa Barbara+0.3
2816-12CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errGabi Martinez+0.5
2917-12CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errAuburn Tomkinson+0.4
3017-13CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+0.2
3118-13UCSBCSFULLServe errUC Santa Barbara+0.3
3218-14CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Ayva Ostovar+0.2
3318-15UCSBUCSBKillEmma McDermottset Cortni Youngblood+0.4
3419-15UCSBCSFULL×3KillArianna Ellisset Kaia Herweg+0.4
3520-15CSFULLCSFULL×3Bad setEmery Tubbs+0.4
3621-15CSFULLCSFULL×3Bad setEmma McDermott+0.3
3721-16CSFULLUCSBBad setSibley Oster+0.1
3822-16UCSBCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+0.2
3923-16CSFULLCSFULLBlockedEmma McDermottblk Neeva Gaine+0.2
4023-17CSFULLUCSBKillBella Mathisset Ayva Ostovar·
4124-17UCSBCSFULLAttack errAuburn Tomkinson+0.1
4224-18CSFULLUCSBAttack errZariah Crosby·
4325-18UCSBCSFULLBlockedGabi Martinezblk Neeva Gaine, Zariah Crosby·
Set 4
11-0CSFULLCSFULLKillNeeva Gaineset Sibley Oster+1.2
21-1CSFULLUCSBKillEmma McDermottset Cortni Youngblood+0.8
31-2UCSBUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Cortni Youngblood+1.0
42-2UCSBCSFULL×6KillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.8
53-2CSFULLCSFULL×6Attack errBella Mathis+1.3
64-2CSFULLCSFULL×6Attack errGabi Martinez+1.5
75-2CSFULLCSFULL×6Attack errBella Mathis+1.7
86-2CSFULLCSFULL×6KillZariah Crosbyset Jaiden Mojica+1.8
97-2CSFULLCSFULL×6KillArianna Ellisset Jaiden Mojica+1.9
107-3CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+1.1
118-3UCSBCSFULLBad setAuburn Tomkinson+1.5
128-4CSFULLUCSB×4Attack errSofia Shine+1.1
138-5UCSBUCSB×4KillGabi Martinezset Ayva Ostovar+1.6
148-6UCSBUCSB×4Attack errParys Taylor+1.6
158-7UCSBUCSB×4BlockedZariah Crosbyblk Emery Tubbs+1.6
169-7UCSBCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Jaiden Mojica+1.4
179-8CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Ayva Ostovar+1.1
1810-8UCSBCSFULLServe errUC Santa Barbara+1.4
1910-9CSFULLUCSBKillEmma McDermottset Cortni Youngblood+1.2
2011-9UCSBCSFULLAttack errGabi Martinez+1.5
2111-10CSFULLUCSBServe errCal St. Fullerton+1.2
2212-10UCSBCSFULLAttack errAuburn Tomkinson+1.6
2312-11CSFULLUCSBKillEmma McDermottset Cortni Youngblood+1.3
2412-12UCSBUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+1.8
2513-12CSFULL
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.5
2614-12CSFULLCSFULLBlockedAuburn Tomkinsonblk Zariah Crosby, Kaia Herweg+2.3
2714-13CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Milan Rex+1.4
2815-13UCSBCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Jaiden Mojica+1.8
2916-13CSFULLCSFULLAttack errGabi Martinez+2.7
3016-14CSFULLUCSBBad setArianna Ellis+1.5
3117-14UCSBCSFULLKillGabi Martinezset Cortni Youngblood+2.1
3217-15CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Ayva Ostovar+1.6
3317-16UCSBUCSBBlockedHannah Hassblk Emery Tubbs+2.4
3418-16UCSBCSFULLKillArianna Ellisset Jaiden Mojica+2.3
3518-17CSFULLUCSB×4KillEmery Tubbsset Sibley Oster+1.8
3618-18UCSBUCSB×4KillAyva Ostovarset Sibley Oster+2.6
3718-19UCSBUCSB×4KillEmma McDermottset Gabi Martinez+2.4
3818-20UCSBUCSB×4AceUC Santa Barbaraaced Kaia Herweg+2.0
3919-20UCSBCSFULLKillParys Taylorset Sibley Oster+1.4
4019-21CSFULLUCSBBlockedKaia Herwegblk Bella Mathis, Avery Gibbs+1.6
4119-22UCSBUCSBKillAuburn Tomkinsonset Milan Rex+1.6
4220-22UCSBCSFULLKillNeeva Gaineset Sibley Oster+0.8
4320-23CSFULLUCSBBad setParys Taylor+1.1
4421-23UCSBCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Sibley Oster+0.7
4521-24CSFULLUCSBKillGabi Martinezset Cortni Youngblood+1.1
4622-24UCSBCSFULL×3Attack errEmery Tubbs+0.5
4723-24CSFULLCSFULL×3BlockedGabi Martinezblk Zariah Crosby, Arianna Ellis+1.8
4824-24CSFULLCSFULL×3BlockedAuburn Tomkinsonblk Zariah Crosby, Parys Taylor+5.0
4924-25CSFULLUCSBKillAuburn Tomkinsonset Milan Rex+3.7
5024-26UCSBUCSBAttack errArianna Ellis+4.0

Score shown after each rally, Cal St. Fullerton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).