FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomePAC-12

Colorado St. def. UC Santa Barbara 3–0

(25-22, 25-16, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UCSB	22	16	19	0
CO ST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CO ST above 50 · UCSB below

Biggest swing: 2.7% to Colorado St. — set 1, UCSB 22-23 CO ST. Kill by Halle Jameson. CO ST win probability 92% → 94%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UCSB 5.3%94.7% CO ST

UC Santa Barbara wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.5%

3-2

3.2%

Colorado St. wins

3-0

54.6%

3-1

29.9%

3-2

10.2%

UCSB break %: 35.8% vs this opp
CO ST break %: 48.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Halle JamesonKill+2.7%
Kill by Halle Jameson
Set 1 · UCSB 22-23 CO ST · CO ST 92% → 94%
02
Gabi MartinezAttack error+2.3%
Attack error by Gabi Martinez
Set 1 · UCSB 21-21 CO ST · CO ST 90% → 92%
03
Gabi MartinezKill+2.2%
Kill by Gabi Martinez (set by Ava Zamora)
Set 1 · UCSB 20-17 CO ST · UCSB 11% → 13%
04
Eve WilsonKill+2.1%
Kill by Eve Wilson (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 1 · UCSB 22-24 CO ST · CO ST 94% → 96%
05
Bella MathisKill+2.1%
Kill by Bella Mathis (set by Ava Zamora)
Set 1 · UCSB 22-21 CO ST · UCSB 8% → 10%
06
Gabi MartinezKill+2.1%
Kill by Gabi Martinez (set by Karsyn Fetzer)
Set 1 · UCSB 19-17 CO ST · UCSB 9% → 11%
07
Sofia ZabjekKill+2.0%
Kill by Sofia Zabjek (set by Karsyn Fetzer)
Set 1 · UCSB 21-20 CO ST · CO ST 88% → 90%
08
Eve WilsonKill+1.8%
Kill by Eve Wilson (set by Erin Debiec)
Set 1 · UCSB 22-22 CO ST · CO ST 90% → 92%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UC Santa Barbaraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Auburn TomkinsonOPP	3	10	2	22	.364	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
18Gabi MartinezOH	3	8	6	29	.069	0	0	4	7	4	2	1	9
15Reilly GouethMB	3	5	2	10	.300	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	6.5
13Bella MathisMB	3	2	3	7	-.143	0	1	0	4	0	3	1.5	4.5
8Milan RexS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	19	0	1	6	0	0	0	0
14Danica RachOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0
33Emma McDermottOH	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	2	1	2	1	5
28Sophia WendlickOH	3	4	4	12	.000	1	0	1	4	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Bianca NistorDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9Cortni YoungbloodDS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
12Avery GibbsOPP	2	6	1	10	.500	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6
11Ava ZamoraS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	8	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
10Kate MartinOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
19Ayva OstovarS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	21	101	.178	36	3	7	43	6	12	6	57

Colorado St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
27Eve WilsonMB	3	11	0	14	.786	1	1	1	0	0	1	5	3.5	15.5
33Kekua RichardsMB	3	11	2	21	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	13
4Halle JamesonOH	3	8	2	26	.231	0	0	0	3	1	0	3	1.5	9.5
23Erin DebiecS	3	0	0	2	.000	28	4	1	8	0	0	2	1	5
5Sofia ZabjekOH	3	3	3	11	.000	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
26Maria BrunOH	3	0	0	2	.000	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
21Ella StowellOH	3	6	3	18	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
24Hayden GrimesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
1Karsyn FetzerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	12	1	0	0	0	0
11Abby LittleOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Jaedyn RileyS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Sophie StephensonOPP	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	10	95	.316	33	6	4	32	3	1	18	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 UCSB · CO ST 8

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 UCSBCO ST 4

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 4 UCSBCO ST 8

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 2 UCSBCO ST 3

Bars above the line = Colorado St. leads, below = UC Santa Barbara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UC Santa Barbara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%8/18	22%2/9
2	64%7/11	47%7/15
3	54%7/13	22%2/9
4	60%6/10	30%3/10
5	71%5/7	14%1/7
6	36%5/14	44%4/9
All	52%38/73	32%19/59

Colorado St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	57%8/14
2	57%8/14	38%5/13
3	78%7/9	30%3/10
4	86%6/7	54%7/13
5	86%6/7	40%4/10
6	56%5/9	62%8/13
All	68%40/59	48%35/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	UCSB-CO ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	UCSB	UCSB	Ace	UCSB server	aced Karsyn Fetzer	+0.8
2	1-1	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.5
3	1-2	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Bella Mathis	blk Eve Wilson, Halle Jameson	+0.6
4	2-2	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+0.5
5	3-2	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Sofia Zabjek		+0.8
6	3-3	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.5
7	4-3	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+0.6
8	4-4	UCSB	CO ST	Serve err	UCSB server		+0.6
9	4-5	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.7
10	5-5	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.6
11	6-5	UCSB	UCSB	Ace	UCSB server	aced Halle Jameson	+0.9
12	6-6	UCSB	CO ST×3	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Eve Wilson	+0.6
13	6-7	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick		+0.8
14	6-8	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Kekua Richards		+0.7
15	7-8	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.5
16	7-9	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.5
17	8-9	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Emma McDermott	set Ava Zamora	+0.5
18	9-9	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Ella Stowell	blk Gabi Martinez, Reilly Goueth	+0.9
19	9-10	UCSB	CO ST×3	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.6
20	9-11	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Kekua Richards		+0.8
21	9-12	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.6
22	10-12	CO ST	UCSB	Attack err	Halle Jameson	blk Reilly Goueth, Emma McDermott	+0.4
23	10-13	UCSB	CO ST	Attack err	Gabi Martinez	blk Sofia Zabjek, Kekua Richards	+0.4
24	11-13	CO ST	UCSB	Attack err	Sofia Zabjek	blk Gabi Martinez, Bella Mathis	+0.5
25	12-13	UCSB	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.8
26	12-14	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.6
27	13-14	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Bella Mathis	set Milan Rex	+0.7
28	13-15	UCSB	CO ST	Serve err	UCSB server		+0.6
29	14-15	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Cortni Youngblood	+0.7
30	14-16	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.7
31	15-16	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.7
32	16-16	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Ella Stowell	blk Emma McDermott, Reilly Goueth	+1.3
33	16-17	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.9
34	17-17	CO ST	UCSB×4	Kill	Emma McDermott	set Ava Zamora	+1.1
35	18-17	UCSB	UCSB×4	Attack err	Kekua Richards		+1.8
36	19-17	UCSB	UCSB×4	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Karsyn Fetzer	+2.1
37	20-17	UCSB	UCSB×4	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Ava Zamora	+2.2
38	20-18	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+1.1
39	21-18	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Reilly Goueth	set Ava Zamora	+1.8
40	21-19	UCSB	CO ST×3	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+1.1
41	21-20	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Karsyn Fetzer	+2.0
42	21-21	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		+2.3
43	22-21	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Bella Mathis	set Ava Zamora	+2.1
44	22-22	UCSB	CO ST×4	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+1.8
45	22-23	CO ST	CO ST×4	Kill	Halle Jameson		+2.7
46	22-24	CO ST	CO ST×4	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+2.1
47	22-25	CO ST	CO ST×4	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.9
Set 2
1	0-1	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Kekua Richards	+0.4
2	0-2	CO ST	CO ST×3	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Maria Brun	+0.3
3	0-3	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Bella Mathis		+0.3
4	1-3	CO ST	UCSB	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.2
5	1-4	UCSB	CO ST	Serve err	UCSB server		+0.2
6	2-4	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.2
7	3-4	UCSB	UCSB	Bad set	Erin Debiec		+0.4
8	3-5	UCSB	CO ST	Serve err	UCSB server		+0.3
9	4-5	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Milan Rex	+0.3
10	5-5	UCSB	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.5
11	5-6	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Hayden Grimes	+0.3
12	6-6	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.4
13	6-7	UCSB	CO ST	Serve err	UCSB server		+0.3
14	6-8	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Emma McDermott	blk Erin Debiec, Kekua Richards	+0.4
15	7-8	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Reilly Goueth	set Ava Zamora	+0.3
16	7-9	UCSB	CO ST×8	Serve err	UCSB server		+0.3
17	7-10	CO ST	CO ST×8	Kill	Sofia Zabjek	set Erin Debiec	+0.4
18	7-11	CO ST	CO ST×8	Attack err	Ava Zamora		+0.3
19	7-12	CO ST	CO ST×8	Ace	CO ST server	aced Gabi Martinez	+0.2
20	7-13	CO ST	CO ST×8	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		+0.1
21	7-14	CO ST	CO ST×8	Ace	CO ST server	aced Gabi Martinez	+0.1
22	7-15	CO ST	CO ST×8	Ace	CO ST server	aced Gabi Martinez	+0.1
23	7-16	CO ST	CO ST×8	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		+0.0
24	8-16	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Emma McDermott	set Ava Zamora	+0.0
25	8-17	UCSB	CO ST×4	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.0
26	8-18	CO ST	CO ST×4	Attack err	Gabi Martinez	blk Sofia Zabjek, Kekua Richards	+0.0
27	8-19	CO ST	CO ST×4	Ace	CO ST server	aced Emma McDermott	+0.0
28	8-20	CO ST	CO ST×4	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Karsyn Fetzer	+0.0
29	9-20	CO ST	UCSB×4	Kill	Emma McDermott	set Ava Zamora	+0.0
30	10-20	UCSB	UCSB×4	Attack err	Halle Jameson	blk Bella Mathis, Auburn Tomkinson	+0.0
31	11-20	UCSB	UCSB×4	Kill	Avery Gibbs	set Milan Rex	+0.0
32	12-20	UCSB	UCSB×4	Attack err	Kekua Richards		+0.0
33	12-21	UCSB	CO ST	Bad set	Milan Rex		+0.0
34	12-22	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Bella Mathis	blk Eve Wilson, Halle Jameson	+0.0
35	13-22	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Avery Gibbs	set Cortni Youngblood	+0.0
36	14-22	UCSB	UCSB	Ace	UCSB server	aced Team	+0.0
37	14-23	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Abby Little	set Erin Debiec	+0.0
38	15-23	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Milan Rex	+0.0
39	16-23	UCSB	UCSB	Kill	Reilly Goueth		+0.0
40	16-24	UCSB	CO ST	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson	blk Halle Jameson, Eve Wilson	+0.0
41	16-25	CO ST	CO ST	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	UCSB	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.2
2	1-1	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
3	2-1	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Auburn Tomkinson	+0.2
4	3-1	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Sofia Zabjek	blk Sophia Wendlick, Bella Mathis	+0.3
5	3-2	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
6	4-2	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.2
7	4-3	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
8	4-4	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
9	5-4	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Reilly Goueth	set Milan Rex	+0.2
10	5-5	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
11	6-5	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Sophia Wendlick	+0.2
12	6-6	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
13	7-6	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Avery Gibbs	set Ayva Ostovar	+0.2
14	7-7	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
15	8-7	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Avery Gibbs	set Ayva Ostovar	+0.2
16	8-8	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Gabi Martinez	+0.2
17	8-9	CO ST	CO ST	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.3
18	9-9	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+0.2
19	10-9	UCSB	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.3
20	10-10	UCSB	CO ST	Serve err	UCSB server		+0.2
21	11-10	CO ST	UCSB	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.3
22	11-11	UCSB	CO ST×3	Kill	Halle Jameson	set Erin Debiec	+0.2
23	11-12	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick	blk Eve Wilson, Erin Debiec	+0.3
24	11-13	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson		+0.2
25	12-13	CO ST	UCSB	Attack err	Ella Stowell		+0.2
26	12-14	UCSB	CO ST	Attack err	Avery Gibbs	blk Ella Stowell, Eve Wilson	+0.2
27	12-15	CO ST	CO ST	Ace	CO ST server	aced Gabi Martinez	+0.2
28	13-15	CO ST	UCSB	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.1
29	13-16	UCSB	CO ST	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		+0.2
30	13-17	CO ST	CO ST	Ace	CO ST server	aced Danica Rach	+0.2
31	14-17	CO ST	UCSB	Serve err	CO ST server		+0.1
32	14-18	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
33	15-18	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Avery Gibbs	set Ayva Ostovar	+0.1
34	15-19	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Kekua Richards	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
35	16-19	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Cortni Youngblood	+0.1
36	16-20	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Eve Wilson	set Erin Debiec	+0.1
37	17-20	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Milan Rex	+0.1
38	17-21	UCSB	CO ST×3	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick		+0.1
39	17-22	CO ST	CO ST×3	Attack err	Reilly Goueth		+0.1
40	17-23	CO ST	CO ST×3	Bad set	Milan Rex		+0.0
41	18-23	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Reilly Goueth	set Milan Rex	+0.0
42	18-24	UCSB	CO ST	Attack err	Reilly Goueth		+0.0
43	19-24	CO ST	UCSB	Kill	Avery Gibbs	set Cortni Youngblood	+0.0
44	19-25	UCSB	CO ST	Kill	Ella Stowell	set Erin Debiec	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UC Santa Barbara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.