FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

0:3

HomeSUMMIT-LEAGUE

South Dakota def. UC Santa Barbara 3–0

(25-16, 25-16, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UCSB	16	16	22	0
SO DAK	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SO DAK above 50 · UCSB below

Biggest swing: 3.0% to UC Santa Barbara — set 1, UCSB 13-13 SO DAK. Attack error by Lauren Medeck. SO DAK win probability 75% → 72%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UCSB 27.8%72.2% SO DAK

UC Santa Barbara wins

3-0

5.1%

3-1

9.7%

3-2

13.0%

South Dakota wins

3-0

24.8%

3-1

27.7%

3-2

19.7%

UCSB break %: 38.7% vs this opp
SO DAK break %: 43.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Lauren MedeckAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Lauren Medeck
Set 1 · UCSB 13-13 SO DAK · UCSB 25% → 28%
02
Sophia WendlickAttack error+2.9%
Sophia Wendlick stuffed by Audrey Nelson & Morgan Bode
Set 1 · UCSB 13-15 SO DAK · SO DAK 74% → 77%
03
Audrey NelsonAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Audrey Nelson
Set 1 · UCSB 12-13 SO DAK · UCSB 23% → 25%
04
Auburn TomkinsonAttack error+2.5%
Auburn Tomkinson stuffed by Morgan Bode & Lauren Medeck
Set 1 · UCSB 13-16 SO DAK · SO DAK 77% → 79%
05
Amanda LoschenAttack error+2.2%
Amanda Loschen stuffed by Bella Mathis
Set 1 · UCSB 2-2 SO DAK · UCSB 25% → 27%
06
Lauren MedeckKill+2.2%
Kill by Lauren Medeck (set by Ella Rogers)
Set 1 · UCSB 4-6 SO DAK · SO DAK 74% → 76%
07
Sophia WendlickAttack error+2.1%
Sophia Wendlick stuffed by Audrey Nelson & Amanda Loschen
Set 1 · UCSB 13-14 SO DAK · SO DAK 72% → 74%
08
Bella MathisAttack error+2.1%
Attack error by Bella Mathis
Set 1 · UCSB 0-1 SO DAK · SO DAK 72% → 74%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UC Santa Barbaraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Gabi MartinezOH	3	14	6	36	.222	1	4	10	2	0	0	0	14
1Auburn TomkinsonOPP	3	6	4	19	.105	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
13Bella MathisMB	3	4	1	9	.333	1	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
8Milan RexS	3	0	0	3	.000	18	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
28Sophia WendlickOH	2	4	6	15	-.133	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4
15Reilly GouethMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33Emma McDermottOH	3	3	4	19	-.053	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
55Emery TubbsMB	3	2	1	4	.250	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
14Danica RachOH	3	0	0	2	.000	1	0	10	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
9Cortni YoungbloodDS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	0	12	1	0	0	0	0
4Bianca NistorDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
12Avery GibbsOPP	2	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Ayva OstovarS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
10Kate MartinOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
11Ava ZamoraS	1	0	0	0	–	6	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	25	115	.070	32	5	51	5	1	4	3	54

South Dakotahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Gabi ZachariasenOH	3	13	3	32	.313	0	1	1	3	1	1	1.5	15.5
4Lauren MedeckOH	3	6	3	24	.125	1	0	0	14	1	3	2.5	8.5
8Morgan BodeMB	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	1	0	5	2.5	7.5
14Amanda LoschenMB	3	4	2	16	.125	1	0	0	2	0	4	2	6
5Audrey NelsonMB	3	4	4	13	.000	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	6
15Ella RogersS	3	2	1	5	.200	29	0	1	5	0	1	0.5	2.5
16Samantha UntiedtL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	2	9	0	0	0	3
11Sierra PokharelDS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	1	12	0	0	0	1
13Cora HokenstadDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	16	107	.168	33	5	5	50	2	18	11	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 UCSB · SO DAK 5

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 UCSBSO DAK 4

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 2 UCSBSO DAK 5

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 UCSBSO DAK 4

Bars above the line = South Dakota leads, below = UC Santa Barbara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UC Santa Barbara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	38%3/8
2	60%6/10	46%6/13
3	46%6/13	33%3/9
4	38%6/16	33%3/9
5	50%6/12	33%3/9
6	33%4/12	14%1/7
All	47%35/74	35%19/55

South Dakota

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	57%8/14
2	75%6/8	25%2/8
3	75%6/8	50%6/12
4	60%6/10	60%9/15
5	75%6/8	63%10/16
6	71%5/7	44%4/9
All	65%36/55	53%39/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

129 rallies

Rally log

#	UCSB-SO DAK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Bella Mathis		+2.1
2	0-2	SO DAK	SO DAK	Serve err	SO DAK server		+2.0
3	1-2	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+1.4
4	2-2	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Amanda Loschen	blk Bella Mathis	+2.2
5	2-3	UCSB	SO DAK	Serve err	UCSB server		+1.5
6	3-3	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Milan Rex	+1.6
7	3-4	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+1.5
8	4-4	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+1.6
9	4-5	UCSB	SO DAK×4	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Ella Rogers	+1.6
10	4-6	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+2.2
11	4-7	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick		+1.9
12	4-8	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Cortni Youngblood	+1.7
13	5-8	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Emma McDermott	set Bella Mathis	+1.1
14	5-9	UCSB	SO DAK	Attack err	Reilly Goueth		+1.2
15	6-9	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Emma McDermott	set Ayva Ostovar	+1.1
16	6-10	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Ella Rogers	+1.2
17	7-10	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Ayva Ostovar	+1.1
18	7-11	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Amanda Loschen	set Ella Rogers	+1.2
19	7-12	SO DAK	SO DAK	Serve err	SO DAK server		+1.5
20	8-12	SO DAK	UCSB×3	Kill	Bella Mathis	set Milan Rex	+0.8
21	9-12	UCSB	UCSB×3	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+1.6
22	10-12	UCSB	UCSB×3	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen	blk Bella Mathis, Auburn Tomkinson	+2.0
23	10-13	UCSB	SO DAK	Serve err	UCSB server		+1.6
24	11-13	SO DAK	UCSB×3	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Gabi Martinez	+1.4
25	12-13	UCSB	UCSB×3	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+2.6
26	13-13	UCSB	UCSB×3	Attack err	Lauren Medeck		+3.0
27	13-14	UCSB	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick	blk Audrey Nelson, Amanda Loschen	+2.1
28	13-15	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick	blk Audrey Nelson, Morgan Bode	+2.9
29	13-16	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson	blk Morgan Bode, Lauren Medeck	+2.5
30	13-17	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Gabi Martinez	+2.0
31	14-17	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Cortni Youngblood	+1.1
32	14-18	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Ella Rogers	+1.4
33	14-19	SO DAK	SO DAK	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Gabi Martinez	+1.5
34	15-19	SO DAK	UCSB	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.7
35	15-20	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Ella Rogers	set Amanda Loschen	+1.0
36	15-21	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Gabi Martinez	blk Ella Rogers, Morgan Bode	+0.8
37	16-21	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Cortni Youngblood	+0.3
38	16-22	UCSB	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Emma McDermott	blk Gabi Zachariasen	+0.5
39	16-23	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Avery Gibbs	blk Amanda Loschen, Gabi Zachariasen	+0.3
40	16-24	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.1
41	16-25	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Avery Gibbs		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Audrey Nelson		+1.8
2	1-1	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+1.2
3	2-1	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+1.3
4	2-2	UCSB	SO DAK	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick	blk Audrey Nelson, Amanda Loschen	+1.2
5	3-2	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+1.3
6	4-2	UCSB	UCSB	Kill	Sophia Wendlick	set Milan Rex	+2.0
7	4-3	UCSB	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick	blk Audrey Nelson, Morgan Bode	+1.3
8	4-4	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Sophia Wendlick		+1.9
9	4-5	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Emma McDermott		+1.9
10	4-6	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Emma McDermott	+1.8
11	5-6	SO DAK	UCSB	Serve err	SO DAK server		+1.2
12	6-6	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Lauren Medeck		+1.9
13	6-7	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Ella Rogers	+1.3
14	6-8	SO DAK	SO DAK	Serve err	SO DAK server		+1.9
15	7-8	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Emma McDermott	set Milan Rex	+1.3
16	7-9	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+1.3
17	8-9	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Bella Mathis	set Milan Rex	+1.3
18	8-10	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Ella Rogers	set Sierra Pokharel	+1.3
19	9-10	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+1.3
20	9-11	UCSB	SO DAK	Serve err	UCSB server		+1.4
21	10-11	SO DAK	UCSB	Serve err	SO DAK server		+1.4
22	10-12	UCSB	SO DAK×3	Serve err	UCSB server		+1.4
23	10-13	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Attack err	Emma McDermott		+1.9
24	10-14	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson		+1.6
25	11-14	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.9
26	11-15	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Ella Rogers	+1.1
27	12-15	SO DAK	UCSB	Attack err	Morgan Bode		+0.9
28	13-15	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Lauren Medeck		+1.7
29	13-16	UCSB	SO DAK×4	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+1.4
30	13-17	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Ella Rogers	+1.7
31	13-18	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Attack err	Emma McDermott		+1.2
32	13-19	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.8
33	14-19	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Bella Mathis	set Milan Rex	+0.3
34	15-19	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen		+0.8
35	15-20	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Morgan Bode	set Ella Rogers	+0.8
36	16-20	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+0.5
37	16-21	UCSB	SO DAK×5	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		+0.7
38	16-22	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Bad set	Milan Rex		+0.6
39	16-23	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		+0.2
40	16-24	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Ella Rogers	+0.1
41	16-25	SO DAK	SO DAK×5	Kill	Amanda Loschen	set Ella Rogers	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	SO DAK	UCSB	Serve err	SO DAK server		+0.7
2	1-1	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Amanda Loschen	set Ella Rogers	+0.6
3	1-2	SO DAK	SO DAK	Ace	SO DAK server	aced Danica Rach	+0.9
4	2-2	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Bella Mathis	set Milan Rex	+0.7
5	2-3	UCSB	SO DAK	Serve err	UCSB server		+0.6
6	2-4	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Gabi Martinez	blk Lauren Medeck, Morgan Bode	+0.9
7	3-4	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.6
8	3-5	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Audrey Nelson	set Ella Rogers	+0.6
9	4-5	SO DAK	UCSB×3	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Milan Rex	+0.6
10	5-5	UCSB	UCSB×3	Attack err	Morgan Bode		+1.0
11	6-5	UCSB	UCSB×3	Attack err	Ella Rogers		+1.1
12	6-6	UCSB	SO DAK×3	Bad set	Ava Zamora		+0.7
13	6-7	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Bad set	Ava Zamora		+1.1
14	6-8	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen		+1.0
15	7-8	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Emery Tubbs	set Ava Zamora	+0.7
16	7-9	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.7
17	7-10	SO DAK	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Lauren Medeck	+0.9
18	8-10	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Ava Zamora	+0.6
19	9-10	UCSB	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Ava Zamora	+1.0
20	9-11	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.7
21	9-12	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		+1.0
22	10-12	SO DAK	UCSB×4	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Ava Zamora	+0.6
23	11-12	UCSB	UCSB×4	Attack err	Amanda Loschen		+1.1
24	12-12	UCSB	UCSB×4	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+1.3
25	13-12	UCSB	UCSB×4	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+1.4
26	13-13	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.9
27	13-14	SO DAK	SO DAK	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson	blk Lauren Medeck, Amanda Loschen	+1.4
28	14-14	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Milan Rex	+1.0
29	14-15	UCSB	SO DAK	Attack err	Auburn Tomkinson		+1.0
30	15-15	SO DAK	UCSB	Serve err	SO DAK server		+1.0
31	16-15	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Audrey Nelson	blk Emery Tubbs, Danica Rach	+1.6
32	16-16	UCSB	SO DAK×3	Attack err	Emery Tubbs		+1.1
33	16-17	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Sierra Pokharel	+1.6
34	16-18	SO DAK	SO DAK×3	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+1.5
35	17-18	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Auburn Tomkinson	set Danica Rach	+0.9
36	17-19	UCSB	SO DAK×4	Kill	Lauren Medeck	set Ella Rogers	+1.1
37	17-20	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+1.3
38	17-21	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.9
39	17-22	SO DAK	SO DAK×4	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.5
40	18-22	SO DAK	UCSB	Attack err	Gabi Zachariasen		+0.2
41	19-22	UCSB	UCSB	Attack err	Morgan Bode		+0.5
42	19-23	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Gabi Zachariasen	set Ella Rogers	+0.6
43	20-23	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Ava Zamora	+0.3
44	21-23	UCSB	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Bianca Nistor	+0.8
45	21-24	UCSB	SO DAK	Kill	Amanda Loschen	set Ella Rogers	+1.0
46	22-24	SO DAK	UCSB	Kill	Gabi Martinez	set Ava Zamora	+0.4
47	22-25	UCSB	SO DAK	Attack err	Gabi Martinez		+0.9

Score shown after each rally, UC Santa Barbara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.