Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Saint Mary's (CA) def. Portland 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Saint Mary's (CA) 58.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 3:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Saint Mary's (CA) beat visiting Portland 3-1 (25-20, 25-16, 24-26, 25-19) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Saint Mary's (CA)'s Antonie Kelnárová led with 17 kills, and Alayna Pearson added 14 digs.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
PORT201626191
STMARY252524253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Saint Mary's (CA) won it on serve.

No single rally moved win probability more than 5.8 points. Portland peaked at 41% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Saint Mary's (CA) at 58%.

PortlandSaint Mary's (CA)
  • Break %+11.8 pts
    34.145.9

    On serve: 45/98 against 28/82 (Portland sideout 54.1%).

  • Longest run+1
    56

    Saint Mary's (CA) scored 6 straight in the fourth set to stretch a 13–12 lead to 19–12. The set finished 25–19.

Saint Mary's (CA) above 50Portland belowMax swing 5.8%

PortlandSaint Mary's (CA)

Hitting
Portland .235·Saint Mary's (CA) .276
Aces
Portland 3·Saint Mary's (CA) 14
Serve err
Portland 11·Saint Mary's (CA) 14
Blocks
Portland 9·Saint Mary's (CA) 99 BS · 0 BA vs 5 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Portland 43·Saint Mary's (CA) 45

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Saint Mary's (CA) above 50 · Portland below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.8% PORTrally 180 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.8% to Portland — set 3, PORT 26-24 STMARY. Antonie Kelnárová stuffed by Taina Kaauwai. STMARY win probability 85% → 79%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PORT 26.3%73.7% STMARY

Portland wins

3-0
4.7%
3-1
9.1%
3-2
12.5%

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0
26.0%
3-1
28.2%
3-2
19.5%
PORT break %
39.9% vs this opp
STMARY break %
44.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Taina KaauwaiBlock+5.8%

    Antonie Kelnárová stuffed by Taina Kaauwai

    Set 3 · PORT 26-24 STMARY · PORT 15% → 21%

  2. 02

    Kill by Eliot Diehl Palmer (set by Kalaweloilehua Chock)

    Set 3 · PORT 23-22 STMARY · PORT 9% → 14%

  3. 03
    Taina KaauwaiBlock+4.2%

    Layne Dent stuffed by Taina Kaauwai

    Set 3 · PORT 24-23 STMARY · PORT 11% → 15%

  4. 04
    Layne DentKill+4.2%

    Kill by Layne Dent (set by Sadie White)

    Set 3 · PORT 24-24 STMARY · STMARY 85% → 89%

  5. 05

    Kill by Havannah Hoeft (set by Vanessa Haddock)

    Set 3 · PORT 25-24 STMARY · PORT 11% → 15%

  6. 06
    Maddie WayKill+3.8%

    Kill by Maddie Way

    Set 4 · PORT 12-15 STMARY · STMARY 86% → 90%

  7. 07
    PortlandAce+3.7%

    Portland ace on Mikayla Haner

    Set 4 · PORT 12-13 STMARY · PORT 13% → 17%

  8. 08

    Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Alayna Pearson)

    Set 1 · PORT 14-16 STMARY · STMARY 61% → 65%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416642.2386127110118
46112.417100003039
4113.00029001401012
24415.000000101015
11011.000000000001
1000–000110000
49321.286001210009
4000–2231030002
4000–002000000
4000–101510000
36214.286001220006
3106.167000103034
2001.000101000000
Team totals4417115.23540311431490981
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417637.29703770111.521.5
48211.54500000031.59.5
4206.3334014130132.55.5
4000–140400004
4104.250000510001
37214.35700100313.510.5
411732.1251001200011
46116.313000000006
4000–9511400005
4000–011000001
2327.143100100003
Team totals5520127.27652141445358999

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Portland vs Saint Mary's (CA)

Season series · Saint Mary's (CA) leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 PORT · STMARY 6

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 4 PORTSTMARY 3

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 2 PORTSTMARY 4

Set 3

26-24

Longest run 3 PORTSTMARY 5

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 5 PORTSTMARY 6

Bars above the line = Saint Mary's (CA) leads, below = Portland leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Portland

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%10/19
31%4/13
2
69%9/13
41%7/17
3
50%9/18
40%6/15
4
64%9/14
25%3/12
5
75%9/12
40%6/15
6
32%7/22
20%2/10
All
54%53/98
34%28/82

Saint Mary's (CA)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
44%7/16
2
56%9/16
47%8/17
3
75%9/12
18%2/11
4
90%9/10
57%12/21
5
50%8/16
25%3/12
6
80%8/10
62%13/21
All
66%54/82
46%45/98

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

180 rallies

#PORT-STMARYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STMARYSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.4
21-1STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.8
31-2PORTSTMARYServe errPortland+1.8
42-2STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.8
52-3PORTSTMARYServe errPortland+1.9
63-3STMARYPORTAttack errLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.9
73-4PORTSTMARYAttack errKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.9
83-5STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+2.5
94-5STMARYPORTKillCallie Pieperset Havannah Hoeft+1.8
104-6PORTSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.9
115-6STMARYPORTKillCallie Pieperset Havannah Hoeft+1.9
125-7PORTSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jackson+1.9
135-8STMARYSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.5
145-9STMARYSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Alayna Pearson+2.2
156-9STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.5
167-9PORTPORTBlockedAnaya Throwerblk Kalaweloilehua Chock+2.3
177-10PORTSTMARYBlockedLila Krallblk Anaya Thrower+1.9
188-10STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.8
199-10PORTPORTKillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+2.7
209-11PORTSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Alayna Pearson+2.2
219-12STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.7
229-13STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errCallie Pieper+2.4
2310-13STMARYPORT×4Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.6
2411-13PORTPORT×4KillLila Krallset Kalaweloilehua Chock+2.5
2512-13PORTPORT×4Attack errAva Galvan+3.0
2613-13PORTPORT×4KillCallie Pieperset Kalaweloilehua Chock+3.4
2713-14PORTSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.6
2814-14STMARYPORTKillCallie Pieperset Kalaweloilehua Chock+2.6
2914-15PORTSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.7
3014-16STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+3.6
3114-17STMARYSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+3.2
3215-17STMARYPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+2.1
3315-18PORTSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+2.5
3415-19STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Amiyah Eason+2.7
3516-19STMARYPORTAttack errAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.5
3617-19PORTPORTKillAlana Villela+2.8
3717-20PORTSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+2.7
3817-21STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.8
3917-22STMARYSTMARY×3AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Jeryn Hildenbrand+1.7
4018-22STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.7
4118-23PORTSTMARYAttack errLila Krallset Jeryn Hildenbrand+1.1
4218-24STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dent+0.6
4319-24STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.1
4420-24PORTPORTAttack errLayne Dent+0.3
4520-25PORTSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Alayna Pearson+0.5
Set 2
10-1PORTSTMARY×4BlockedKalaweloilehua Chockblk Anaya Thrower, Antonie Kelnárová+1.6
20-2STMARYSTMARY×4BlockedLila Krallblk Anaya Thrower+2.1
30-3STMARYSTMARY×4AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Kalaweloilehua Chock+2.0
40-4STMARYSTMARY×4KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.9
51-4STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.3
62-4PORTPORTBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Shaylee Stephen+2.0
72-5PORTSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.6
82-6STMARYSTMARYBlockedEliot Diehl Palmerblk Anaya Thrower+1.9
93-6STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.3
103-7PORTSTMARY×3Bad setHavannah Hoeft+1.5
113-8STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedEliot Diehl Palmerblk Ava Galvan, Sadie White+1.7
123-9STMARYSTMARY×3KillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.5
134-9STMARYPORTKillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+0.9
145-9PORTPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.5
155-10PORTSTMARYServe errPortland+1.3
166-10STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.1
177-10PORTPORTAttack errLayne Dent+1.8
187-11PORTSTMARYServe errPortland+1.6
198-11STMARYPORTAttack errMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.4
208-12PORTSTMARYServe errPortland+1.6
219-12STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.4
229-13PORTSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.7
239-14STMARYSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Alayna Pearson+1.8
2410-14STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
2510-15PORTSTMARYBad setLila Krall+1.4
2610-16STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)+1.4
2711-16STMARYPORTKillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+0.8
2811-17PORTSTMARYAttack errLila Krallset Layne Dent+1.0
2911-18STMARYSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+0.9
3012-18STMARYPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+0.4
3112-19PORTSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Layne Dent+0.7
3212-20STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Tinoa Woodward-Hart+0.5
3313-20STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.2
3413-21PORTSTMARYServe errPortland+0.3
3514-21STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.1
3614-22PORTSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.2
3715-22STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.1
3816-22PORTPORTBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Lila Krall+0.2
3916-23PORTSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+0.3
4016-24STMARYSTMARY×3AceSaint Mary's (CA)+0.1
4116-25STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson·
Set 3
10-1STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.3
21-1STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.0
32-1PORTPORTKillCallie Pieper+1.4
42-2PORTSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.0
53-2STMARYPORT×3KillEliot Diehl Palmer+1.1
64-2PORTPORT×3KillCallie Pieperset Kalaweloilehua Chock+1.5
75-2PORTPORT×3AcePortlandaced Layne Dent+1.4
85-3PORTSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.0
96-3STMARYPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Kalaweloilehua Chock+1.1
106-4PORTSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.0
117-4STMARYPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Jeryn Hildenbrand+1.1
127-5PORTSTMARYServe errPortland+1.0
138-5STMARYPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
148-6PORTSTMARY×5KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.0
158-7STMARYSTMARY×5KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.5
168-8STMARYSTMARY×5KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.6
178-9STMARYSTMARY×5KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.6
188-10STMARYSTMARY×5AceSaint Mary's (CA)+1.6
199-10STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
209-11PORTSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+1.2
2110-11STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.2
2211-11PORTPORTAcePortlandaced Layne Dent+1.7
2311-12PORTSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.3
2412-12STMARYPORTKillLayne Dentset Natalie Peete+1.4
2512-13PORTSTMARYBlockedCallie Pieperblk Sadie White, Ava Galvan+1.4
2613-13STMARYPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.4
2713-14PORTSTMARYServe errPortland+1.5
2814-14STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.5
2914-15PORTSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.5
3015-15STMARYPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.5
3115-16PORTSTMARY×4KillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.6
3215-17STMARYSTMARY×4AceSaint Mary's (CA)+2.1
3315-18STMARYSTMARY×4BlockedTaina Kaauwaiblk Antonie Kelnárová+1.9
3415-19STMARYSTMARY×4AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Callie Pieper+1.5
3516-19STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.8
3617-19PORTPORTBlockedMaddie Wayblk Shaylee Stephen+1.6
3717-20PORTSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+1.5
3818-20STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.2
3919-20PORTPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Antonie Kelnárová+2.2
4019-21PORTSTMARYKillMaddie Wayset Sadie White+2.0
4120-21STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.7
4220-22PORTSTMARYServe errPortland+2.3
4321-22STMARYPORT×3BlockedLayne Dentblk Shaylee Stephen+1.8
4422-22PORTPORT×3Attack errLayne Dent+3.5
4523-22PORTPORT×3KillEliot Diehl Palmerset Kalaweloilehua Chock+4.4
4623-23PORTSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+3.1
4724-23STMARYPORTBlockedLayne Dentblk Taina Kaauwai+4.2
4824-24PORTSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+4.2
4925-24STMARYPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Vanessa Haddock+4.2
5026-24PORTPORTBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Taina Kaauwai+5.8
Set 4
10-1PORTSTMARYAttack errKalaweloilehua Chock+2.2
21-1STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chock+2.3
31-2PORTSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.3
42-2STMARYPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+2.3
52-3PORTSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+2.3
62-4STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Jeryn Hildenbrand+3.1
73-4STMARYPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.2
83-5PORTSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+2.3
94-5STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+2.3
105-5PORTPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+3.3
115-6PORTSTMARYKillMaddie Wayset Sadie White+2.5
125-7STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Callie Pieper+3.3
136-7STMARYPORTAttack errLayne Dentset Sadie White+2.4
146-8PORTSTMARY×4Serve errPortland+2.5
156-9STMARYSTMARY×4KillLayne Dentset Maddie Way+3.2
166-10STMARYSTMARY×4BlockedKalaweloilehua Chockblk Ava Galvan, Sadie White+2.8
176-11STMARYSTMARY×4Attack errKalaweloilehua Chock+2.4
187-11STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.5
198-11PORTPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmer+2.5
208-12PORTSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.2
219-12STMARYPORTServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.9
2210-12PORTPORTAttack errAva Galvan+3.1
2310-13PORTSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+2.6
2411-13STMARYPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+2.4
2512-13PORTPORTAcePortlandaced Mikayla Haner+3.7
2612-14PORTSTMARY×6Serve errPortland+3.1
2712-15STMARYSTMARY×6KillMaddie Way+3.8
2812-16STMARYSTMARY×6Attack errEliot Diehl Palmer+3.2
2912-17STMARYSTMARY×6KillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+2.5
3012-18STMARYSTMARY×6Attack errKalaweloilehua Chock+1.8
3112-19STMARYSTMARY×6AceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Eliot Diehl Palmer+1.2
3213-19STMARYPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Taina Kaauwai+0.5
3313-20PORTSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.8
3413-21STMARYSTMARYKillMikayla Hanerset Sadie White+0.6
3514-21STMARYPORT×5KillCallie Pieperset Tinoa Woodward-Hart+0.2
3615-21PORTPORT×5BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Taina Kaauwai+0.5
3716-21PORTPORT×5BlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Havannah Hoeft+0.8
3817-21PORTPORT×5Attack errMaddie Way+1.4
3918-21PORTPORT×5KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Jeryn Hildenbrand+2.3
4018-22PORTSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.6
4118-23STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)aced Jeryn Hildenbrand+1.9
4219-23STMARYPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.6
4319-24PORTSTMARYBlockedHavannah Hoeftblk Sadie White+1.1
4419-25STMARYSTMARYAceSaint Mary's (CA)+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Portland first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).