Portland vs Saint Mary's (CA) Prediction

ScheduledThu, Nov 12, 2026ESPN+

–:–

Portland (11-10) at Saint Mary's (CA) (14-11), Thu, Nov 12, 2026, 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+. RallyIQ gives Saint Mary's (CA) a 78% chance to win. In their only meeting this season, Saint Mary's (CA) won 3-1 on Oct 10.

Data through Nov 10, 6:25 PM CT

Match prediction

PORT 22.0%78.0% STMARY

Portland wins

3-0

3.7%

3-1

7.4%

3-2

10.9%

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0

29.6%

3-1

29.6%

3-2

18.8%

PORT break %: 39.9% vs this opp
STMARY break %: 45.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Once the first serve goes up, this becomes a live win-probability chart that updates point by point.