Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 22, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Saint Mary's (CA) def. Denver 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Saint Mary's (CA) 70.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 22, 8:25 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Saint Mary's (CA) beat visiting Denver 3-1 (25-20, 17-25, 25-18, 25-19) on Thu, Oct 22, 2026. Saint Mary's (CA)'s Antonie Kelnárová led with 26 kills.

Data through · final Oct 22

Set1234Sets
DENVER202518191
STMARY251725253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Denver hit .119. Saint Mary's (CA) held them there all match.

No single rally moved win probability more than 2.9 points. Denver peaked at 34% in Set 2. These are the numbers behind it. RallyIQ gave Saint Mary's (CA) 70% before first serve.

DenverSaint Mary's (CA)
  • Hitting+.133
    .119.252

    61 kills, 26 errors vs 35 kills, 22 errors.

Saint Mary's (CA) above 50Denver belowMax swing 2.9%

DenverSaint Mary's (CA)

Aces
Denver 4·Saint Mary's (CA) 5
Serve err
Denver 4·Saint Mary's (CA) 15
Blocks
Denver 6·Saint Mary's (CA) 96 BS · 0 BA vs 8 BS · 2 BA
Digs
Denver 40·Saint Mary's (CA) 46

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Saint Mary's (CA) above 50 · Denver below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.9% STMARYrally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.9% to Saint Mary's (CA) — set 3, DENVER 0-1 STMARY. Kill by Ava Galvan (set by Sadie White). STMARY win probability 66% → 69%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DENVER 32.0%68.0% STMARY

Denver wins

3-0
6.3%
3-1
11.3%
3-2
14.4%

Saint Mary's (CA) wins

3-0
21.9%
3-1
26.1%
3-2
20.0%
DENVER break %
40.2% vs this opp
STMARY break %
43.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ava GalvanKill+2.9%

    Kill by Ava Galvan (set by Sadie White)

    Set 3 · DENVER 0-1 STMARY · STMARY 66% → 69%

  2. 02
    Anaya ThrowerAttack error+2.8%

    Attack error by Anaya Thrower

    Set 4 · DENVER 2-0 STMARY · DENVER 18% → 21%

  3. 03
    Jamia JohnsonAttack error+2.8%

    Attack error by Jamia Johnson

    Set 3 · DENVER 0-2 STMARY · STMARY 69% → 72%

  4. 04
    Jamia JohnsonKill+2.7%

    Kill by Jamia Johnson (set by Lily Van Hal)

    Set 4 · DENVER 1-0 STMARY · DENVER 15% → 18%

  5. 05
    Ava GalvanKill+2.7%

    Kill by Ava Galvan

    Set 4 · DENVER 2-2 STMARY · STMARY 81% → 84%

  6. 06

    Kill by Antonie Kelnárová (set by Sadie White)

    Set 3 · DENVER 2-5 STMARY · STMARY 72% → 74%

  7. 07
    Ava GalvanKill+2.6%

    Kill by Ava Galvan (set by Sadie White)

    Set 4 · DENVER 2-3 STMARY · STMARY 84% → 86%

  8. 08
    Ava GalvanKill+2.6%

    Kill by Ava Galvan

    Set 4 · DENVER 3-5 STMARY · STMARY 86% → 89%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Denveraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49323.2610000020211
45418.056000312027
45213.231101201016
4000–1700800000
33511-.182000101014
33415-.067002620003
48318.278000010008
4001.0001221200002
4000–3101300001
3000–000400000
2015-.200000000000
1102.500010000002
1103.333000100001
Team totals3522109.119334440560682
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
426846.391605110010.526.5
410319.36801300212.513.5
410013.76937315100013
49519.2110002010110
42413-.154000004046
43525-.080200401014
41011.000302810001
4000–011900001
4013-.333302410000
4000–001300000
Team totals6126139.2525151546482992

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Denver vs Saint Mary's (CA)

Season series · Saint Mary's (CA) leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 DENVER · STMARY 4

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 3 DENVERSTMARY 2

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 6 DENVERSTMARY 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 6 DENVERSTMARY 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 3 DENVERSTMARY 3

Bars above the line = Saint Mary's (CA) leads, below = Denver leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Denver

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%9/18
47%7/15
2
75%9/12
40%6/15
3
53%9/17
47%8/17
4
64%9/14
25%3/12
5
42%8/19
18%2/11
6
55%6/11
46%6/13
All
55%50/91
39%32/83

Saint Mary's (CA)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%10/20
50%8/16
2
82%9/11
31%4/13
3
53%9/17
40%6/15
4
69%9/13
44%7/16
5
100%8/8
50%8/16
6
43%6/14
53%8/15
All
61%51/83
45%41/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#DENVER-STMARYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.1
21-1STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.6
31-2DENVERSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.6
41-3STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárová+2.0
52-3STMARYDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+1.5
62-4DENVERSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.5
72-5STMARYSTMARYAceAva Galvanaced Alicia Thibodeau+1.9
83-5STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.4
93-6DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.4
104-6STMARYDENVERAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.4
114-7DENVERSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Antonie Kelnárová+1.5
124-8STMARYSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Alayna Pearson+1.8
135-8STMARYDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.2
145-9DENVERSTMARYAttack errAlicia Thibodeau+1.3
155-10STMARYSTMARYBlockedHailey Goebelblk Ava Galvan+1.5
166-10STMARYDENVER×3Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.0
177-10DENVERDENVER×3BlockedLayne Dentblk Izabela Molina+1.6
188-10DENVERDENVER×3BlockedLayne Dentblk Jamia Johnson+2.0
198-11DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Alayna Pearson+1.6
209-11STMARYDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+1.5
219-12DENVERSTMARYAttack errIzabela Molina+1.7
2210-12STMARYDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.6
2310-13DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.7
2410-14STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.0
2511-14STMARYDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Makenzie Jackson+1.3
2611-15DENVERSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.5
2711-16STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.6
2812-16STMARYDENVERKillElise Hartset Ilayda Eren+0.9
2912-17DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Elise Hart+1.2
3012-18STMARYSTMARYAttack errKayla Patel+1.1
3113-18STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.6
3213-19DENVERSTMARYKillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+0.8
3314-19STMARYDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+0.5
3414-20DENVERSTMARYBlockedJamia Johnsonblk Layne Dent+0.7
3514-21STMARYSTMARYAttack errAlicia Thibodeau+0.5
3615-21STMARYDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.2
3715-22DENVERSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+0.3
3816-22STMARYDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+0.1
3917-22DENVERDENVERAceMadison Winkleraced Mikayla Haner+0.4
4017-23DENVERSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+0.5
4118-23STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.2
4219-23DENVERDENVERKillElise Hartset Ilayda Eren+0.5
4319-24DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.7
4420-24STMARYDENVERKillElise Hartset Ilayda Eren+0.2
4520-25DENVERSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Antonie Kelnárová+0.4
Set 2
11-0DENVERDENVERBlockedAntonie Kelnárováblk Jamia Johnson+1.8
21-1DENVERSTMARYAttack errKayla Patel+1.3
31-2STMARYSTMARYAttack errIzabela Molina+1.8
42-2STMARYDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.3
52-3DENVERSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.3
62-4STMARYSTMARYAttack errKayla Patel+1.7
73-4STMARYDENVER×6KillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+1.3
84-4DENVERDENVER×6Attack errAnaya Thrower+1.9
95-4DENVERDENVER×6AceIlayda Erenaced Sadie White+2.0
106-4DENVERDENVER×6AceIlayda Eren+2.1
117-4DENVERDENVER×6KillKayla Patelset Madison Winkler+2.2
128-4DENVERDENVER×6KillHailey Goebelset Elise Hart+2.1
138-5DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.3
148-6STMARYSTMARYBlockedHailey Goebelblk Anaya Thrower+2.0
159-6STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.7
169-7DENVERSTMARYServe errKayla Patel+1.5
1710-7STMARYDENVERAttack errLayne Dent+1.7
1810-8DENVERSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Antonie Kelnárová+1.5
1910-9STMARYSTMARYKillMakenzie Jackson+2.2
2011-9STMARYDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Madison Winkler+1.9
2112-9DENVERDENVER×4Attack errAva Galvan+2.5
2213-9DENVERDENVER×4KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+2.3
2314-9DENVERDENVER×4KillJamia Johnsonset Madison Winkler+2.1
2414-10DENVERSTMARYKillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.2
2515-10STMARYDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.6
2615-11DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.2
2716-11STMARYDENVERBad setCaroline Formankova+1.6
2817-11DENVERDENVERAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.7
2917-12DENVERSTMARYKillAlayna Pearsonset Sadie White+0.8
3018-12STMARYDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.2
3119-12DENVERDENVERAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.1
3219-13DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.5
3320-13STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.8
3421-13DENVERDENVERAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+0.6
3521-14DENVERSTMARYServe errKayla Patel+0.2
3622-14STMARYDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.3
3722-15DENVERSTMARY×3KillSadie Whiteset Antonie Kelnárová+0.1
3822-16STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedIzabela Molinablk Makenzie Jackson+0.3
3922-17STMARYSTMARY×3AceSadie White+0.5
4023-17STMARYDENVER×3Attack errMakenzie Jackson+0.7
4124-17DENVERDENVER×3Attack errAva Galvan+0.4
4225-17DENVERDENVER×3Attack errLayne Dent+0.1
Set 3
10-1STMARYSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+2.9
20-2STMARYSTMARYAttack errJamia Johnson+2.8
31-2STMARYDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+2.1
41-3DENVERSTMARYAttack errKayla Patel+2.1
52-3STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.1
62-4DENVERSTMARY×3KillAnaya Throwerset Sadie White+2.1
72-5STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+2.7
82-6STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errElise Hart+2.4
93-6STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.6
103-7DENVERSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.8
113-8STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedElise Hartblk Anaya Thrower+2.1
123-9STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedAlicia Thibodeaublk Anaya Thrower+1.7
134-9STMARYDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+1.1
145-9DENVERDENVERBlockedAnaya Throwerblk Alicia Thibodeau+1.8
155-10DENVERSTMARY×4Attack errIzabela Molina+1.5
165-11STMARYSTMARY×4KillLayne Dentset Antonie Kelnárová+1.7
175-12STMARYSTMARY×4KillAva Galvan+1.3
185-13STMARYSTMARY×4KillSadie Whiteset Alayna Pearson+0.9
196-13STMARYDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.5
206-14DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.6
217-14STMARYDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.5
227-15DENVERSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+0.6
237-16STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedJamia Johnsonblk Ava Galvan, Antonie Kelnárová+0.5
247-17STMARYSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+0.3
258-17STMARYDENVER×6Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.1
269-17DENVERDENVER×6Attack errMakenzie Jackson+0.3
2710-17DENVERDENVER×6Attack errAntonie Kelnárová+0.5
2811-17DENVERDENVER×6Attack errAntonie Kelnárová+0.7
2912-17DENVERDENVER×6Bad setSadie White+1.1
3013-17DENVERDENVER×6Attack errMakenzie Jackson+1.7
3113-18DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.6
3214-18STMARYDENVERAttack errAnaya Thrower+1.2
3314-19DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.6
3415-19STMARYDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.1
3515-20DENVERSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Antonie Kelnárová+1.6
3616-20STMARYDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.0
3717-20DENVERDENVERAttack errLayne Dent+2.2
3817-21DENVERSTMARYServe errElise Hart+2.3
3917-22STMARYSTMARYBlockedIzabela Molinablk Ava Galvan+1.9
4018-22STMARYDENVERAttack errAva Galvan+0.7
4118-23DENVERSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.2
4218-24STMARYSTMARY×3AceSadie Whiteaced Kayla Patel+0.6
4318-25STMARYSTMARY×3AceSadie Whiteaced Kayla Patel+0.1
Set 4
11-0DENVERDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+2.7
22-0DENVERDENVERAttack errAnaya Thrower+2.8
32-1DENVERSTMARY×3KillSadie Whiteset Layne Dent+2.0
42-2STMARYSTMARY×3KillAva Galvan+2.7
52-3STMARYSTMARY×3KillAva Galvanset Sadie White+2.6
63-3STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+2.0
73-4DENVERSTMARYKillAva Galvanset Sadie White+2.0
83-5STMARYSTMARYKillAva Galvan+2.6
94-5STMARYDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.9
104-6DENVERSTMARYServe errIlayda Eren+1.9
114-7STMARYSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárová+2.4
125-7STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.7
135-8DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.8
146-8STMARYDENVERBlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Alicia Thibodeau+1.7
156-9DENVERSTMARYKillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.8
167-9STMARYDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.8
177-10DENVERSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.9
187-11STMARYSTMARY×3BlockedAlicia Thibodeaublk Anaya Thrower+2.2
197-12STMARYSTMARY×3KillLayne Dentset Sadie White+1.9
208-12STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+1.2
218-13DENVERSTMARYAttack errRomi Chlebecek+1.4
229-13STMARYDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+1.2
239-14DENVERSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Layne Dent+1.4
2410-14STMARYDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+1.1
2511-14DENVERDENVERBlockedMakenzie Jacksonblk Elise Hart+2.0
2611-15DENVERSTMARY×3KillAva Galvanset Sadie White+1.8
2711-16STMARYSTMARY×3Attack errHailey Goebel+1.9
2811-17STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+1.4
2912-17STMARYDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+0.7
3013-17DENVERDENVERAttack errAntonie Kelnárová+1.4
3113-18DENVERSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Sadie White+1.4
3213-19STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Mikayla Haner+1.3
3313-20STMARYSTMARY×3KillMakenzie Jacksonset Mikayla Haner+0.8
3414-20STMARYDENVERServe errSaint Mary's (CA)+0.3
3514-21DENVERSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.5
3614-22STMARYSTMARY×3KillAntonie Kelnárováset Sadie White+0.3
3714-23STMARYSTMARY×3AceNatalie Peeteaced Hailey Goebel+0.1
3815-23STMARYDENVERAttack errMikayla Haner·
3916-23DENVERDENVERKillKatelyn Landis+0.1
4016-24DENVERSTMARYKillSadie Whiteset Mikayla Haner+0.1
4117-24STMARYDENVER×3Serve errSaint Mary's (CA)·
4218-24DENVERDENVER×3AceQuinlan Jonesaced Alayna Pearson·
4319-24DENVERDENVER×3KillQuinlan Jonesset Lily Van Hal+0.1
4419-25DENVERSTMARYKillLayne Dentset Sadie White+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Denver first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).