FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayUAC-

3:0

HomeSUMMIT-LEAGUE

Abilene Christian def. Oral Roberts 3–0

(25-7, 25-20, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ABILCH	25	25	25	3
ORU	7	20	15	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ORU above 50 · ABILCH below

Biggest swing: 1.3% to Oral Roberts — set 2, ABILCH 8-9 ORU. Attack error by Alyssa Todd. ORU win probability 7% → 9%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ABILCH 86.4%13.6% ORU

Abilene Christian wins

3-0

38.9%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

16.0%

Oral Roberts wins

3-0

2.0%

3-1

4.3%

3-2

7.3%

ABILCH break %: 49.2% vs this opp
ORU break %: 40.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Alyssa ToddAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Alyssa Todd
Set 2 · ABILCH 8-9 ORU · ORU 7% → 9%
02
Khylie RemmengaAttack error+1.2%
Khylie Remmenga stuffed by Hadlee Welch & Hannah Gonzalez
Set 1 · ABILCH 1-0 ORU · ABILCH 86% → 88%
03
Alyssa ToddKill+1.2%
Kill by Alyssa Todd (set by Rachel Koss)
Set 2 · ABILCH 11-10 ORU · ABILCH 92% → 93%
04
Maddie FinneganAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Maddie Finnegan
Set 2 · ABILCH 8-8 ORU · ORU 6% → 7%
05
Ciara CunninghamAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Ciara Cunningham
Set 1 · ABILCH 3-1 ORU · ABILCH 88% → 89%
06
Tarcy MayahKill+1.1%
Kill by Tarcy Mayah (set by Ana Appel)
Set 2 · ABILCH 9-10 ORU · ORU 8% → 9%
07
Hannah GonzalezKill+1.1%
Kill by Hannah Gonzalez (set by Rachel Koss)
Set 2 · ABILCH 21-18 ORU · ABILCH 95% → 96%
08
Elyse DubeAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Elyse Dube
Set 2 · ABILCH 12-10 ORU · ABILCH 93% → 94%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Abilene Christianaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Hannah GonzalezMB	3	14	2	25	.480	1	1	0	3	0	2	7	5.5	20.5
15Hadlee WelchOH	3	9	2	13	.538	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
3Alyssa ToddOH	3	6	2	17	.235	0	0	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
4Rachel KossS	3	4	1	7	.429	32	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
2Avery ThalerMB	3	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
10Aubrey BeaverOH	2	2	4	12	-.167	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
19Maddie FinneganOH	3	3	1	11	.182	0	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	6
12Abby ChristianL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	4	2	5	1	0	0	0	4
11Izabelle LarsonOH	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
24Brennan RamirezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	18	0	0	0	0	1
8Annaleise SevierOH	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
18Isa RichardsonMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Pierson SmithS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	14	97	.299	37	9	6	38	4	2	14	9	75

Oral Robertshome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Ciara CunninghamOH	3	8	2	23	.261	0	2	1	3	1	0	2	1	11
14Cortnee SmithOH	3	2	5	20	-.150	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Quincey McCoyMB	3	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
6Ana AppelS	3	0	1	5	-.200	16	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	1
3Ana StojicicOH	3	0	0	4	.000	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
25Khylie RemmengaMB	2	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
12Elyse DubeOH	3	3	3	11	.000	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	3
11Olivia BurnsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	10	0	0	0	0	1
1Mackenzie MurphyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
2Tarcy MayahMB	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	3
7Libby RyanOH	2	2	2	6	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
16Ashlyn AseltineL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Molly FelkinsMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		18	16	78	.026	18	4	5	29	9	1	8	5	42

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 ABILCH · ORU 5

Set 1

25-7

Longest run 6 ABILCHORU 2

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 ABILCHORU 5

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 6 ABILCHORU 4

Bars above the line = Oral Roberts leads, below = Abilene Christian leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Abilene Christian

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	71%5/7	71%10/14
2	63%5/8	71%12/17
3	45%5/11	74%14/19
4	50%4/8	50%4/8
5	100%4/4	50%4/8
6	80%4/5	50%4/8
All	63%27/43	65%48/74

Oral Roberts

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%5/14	33%2/6
2	23%5/22	17%1/6
3	29%5/17	58%7/12
4	67%4/6	55%6/11
5	40%4/10	0%0/4
6	60%3/5	0%0/4
All	35%26/74	37%16/43

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

117 rallies

Rally log

#	ABILCH-ORU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ABILCH	ABILCH	Attack err	Khylie Remmenga	blk Hadlee Welch, Hannah Gonzalez	+1.2
2	1-1	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Khylie Remmenga	set Ana Appel	+1.0
3	2-1	ORU	ABILCH×5	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.0
4	3-1	ABILCH	ABILCH×5	Attack err	Ciara Cunningham		+1.1
5	4-1	ABILCH	ABILCH×5	Kill	Aubrey Beaver	set Hannah Gonzalez	+1.0
6	5-1	ABILCH	ABILCH×5	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez		+0.8
7	6-1	ABILCH	ABILCH×5	Kill	Aubrey Beaver	set Rachel Koss	+0.7
8	6-2	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Quincey McCoy	set Ana Appel	+0.5
9	7-2	ORU	ABILCH×6	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+0.6
10	8-2	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Attack err	Cortnee Smith	blk Alyssa Todd, Hannah Gonzalez	+0.6
11	9-2	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+0.4
12	10-2	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Kill	Maddie Finnegan	set Rachel Koss	+0.3
13	11-2	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Attack err	Quincey McCoy		+0.2
14	12-2	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Ace	ABILCH server	aced Cortnee Smith	+0.2
15	12-3	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Cortnee Smith	set Ana Appel	+0.1
16	13-3	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+0.1
17	14-3	ABILCH	ABILCH	Ace	ABILCH server	aced Team	+0.1
18	14-4	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Ciara Cunningham	set Ana Appel	+0.0
19	15-4	ORU	ABILCH×3	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+0.1
20	16-4	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Attack err	Elyse Dube		+0.0
21	17-4	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+0.0
22	17-5	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Ciara Cunningham	set Ana Appel	+0.0
23	18-5	ORU	ABILCH	Serve err	ORU server		+0.0
24	19-5	ABILCH	ABILCH	Attack err	Molly Felkins		+0.0
25	19-6	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Elyse Dube	set Ana Appel	+0.0
26	19-7	ORU	ORU	Attack err	Aubrey Beaver		+0.0
27	20-7	ORU	ABILCH×6	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Rachel Koss	+0.0
28	21-7	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Rachel Koss	+0.0
29	22-7	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Attack err	Cortnee Smith		+0.0
30	23-7	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Rachel Koss	+0.0
31	24-7	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Attack err	Libby Ryan	blk Hadlee Welch, Hannah Gonzalez	+0.0
32	25-7	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Ace	ABILCH server	aced Elyse Dube	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	ORU	ORU	Ace	ORU server	aced Aubrey Beaver	+1.0
2	1-1	ORU	ABILCH	Serve err	ORU server		+0.7
3	1-2	ABILCH	ORU	Attack err	Aubrey Beaver		+0.8
4	2-2	ORU	ABILCH×3	Serve err	ORU server		+0.8
5	3-2	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Ace	ABILCH server	aced Elyse Dube	+0.9
6	4-2	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+0.8
7	4-3	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Ciara Cunningham	set Ana Appel	+0.7
8	4-4	ORU	ORU	Attack err	Aubrey Beaver	blk Ciara Cunningham, Khylie Remmenga	+1.0
9	5-4	ORU	ABILCH×4	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+0.8
10	6-4	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Kill	Rachel Koss	set Rachel Koss	+0.9
11	7-4	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Ace	ABILCH server	aced Team	+0.8
12	8-4	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Bad set	Olivia Burns		+0.6
13	8-5	ABILCH	ORU×5	Serve err	ABILCH server		+0.5
14	8-6	ORU	ORU×5	Ace	ORU server	aced Team	+0.8
15	8-7	ORU	ORU×5	Ace	ORU server	aced Team	+0.9
16	8-8	ORU	ORU×5	Attack err	Maddie Finnegan		+1.1
17	8-9	ORU	ORU×5	Attack err	Alyssa Todd		+1.3
18	9-9	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.0
19	9-10	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Tarcy Mayah	set Ana Appel	+1.1
20	10-10	ORU	ABILCH×4	Kill	Avery Thaler	set Rachel Koss	+1.0
21	11-10	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+1.2
22	12-10	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Attack err	Elyse Dube		+1.1
23	13-10	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Rachel Koss	+0.9
24	13-11	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Elyse Dube	set Ana Appel	+0.7
25	14-11	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Rachel Koss	+0.8
26	14-12	ABILCH	ORU	Attack err	Hadlee Welch		+0.8
27	15-12	ORU	ABILCH	Serve err	ORU server		+0.8
28	15-13	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Ciara Cunningham	set Ana Appel	+0.8
29	16-13	ORU	ABILCH×4	Attack err	Ana Appel	blk Hannah Gonzalez	+0.8
30	17-13	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+0.8
31	18-13	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Ace	ABILCH server	aced Mackenzie Murphy	+0.6
32	19-13	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Attack err	Ciara Cunningham	blk Hannah Gonzalez, Aubrey Beaver	+0.4
33	19-14	ABILCH	ORU×4	Attack err	Hannah Gonzalez	blk Cortnee Smith, Quincey McCoy	+0.2
34	19-15	ORU	ORU×4	Attack err	Aubrey Beaver	blk Tarcy Mayah, Ciara Cunningham	+0.4
35	19-16	ORU	ORU×4	Kill	Ciara Cunningham	set Olivia Burns	+0.7
36	19-17	ORU	ORU×4	Ace	ORU server	aced Abby Christian	+1.0
37	20-17	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.0
38	20-18	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Ciara Cunningham	set Ana Appel	+0.9
39	21-18	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.1
40	22-18	ABILCH	ABILCH	Attack err	Cortnee Smith	blk Rachel Koss, Hannah Gonzalez	+0.9
41	22-19	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Cortnee Smith	set Ana Appel	+0.5
42	23-19	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Avery Thaler	set Rachel Koss	+0.7
43	23-20	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Ciara Cunningham	set Ana Appel	+0.4
44	24-20	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Rachel Koss		+0.6
45	25-20	ABILCH	ABILCH	Attack err	Elyse Dube		+0.2
Set 3
1	1-0	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Rachel Koss	+0.4
2	2-0	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Attack err	Cortnee Smith	blk Hannah Gonzalez, Hadlee Welch	+0.4
3	3-0	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+0.3
4	3-1	ABILCH	ORU	Serve err	ABILCH server		+0.3
5	4-1	ORU	ABILCH×4	Serve err	ORU server		+0.3
6	5-1	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+0.3
7	6-1	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Attack err	Cortnee Smith	blk Hannah Gonzalez	+0.2
8	7-1	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+0.2
9	7-2	ABILCH	ORU	Serve err	ABILCH server		+0.1
10	8-2	ORU	ABILCH×4	Kill	Rachel Koss	set Abby Christian	+0.2
11	9-2	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Kill	Rachel Koss	set Ciara Cunningham	+0.1
12	10-2	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez		+0.1
13	11-2	ABILCH	ABILCH×4	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+0.1
14	11-3	ABILCH	ORU	Attack err	Alyssa Todd		+0.0
15	12-3	ORU	ABILCH	Bad set	Tarcy Mayah		+0.1
16	12-4	ABILCH	ORU	Attack err	Rachel Koss	blk Tarcy Mayah	+0.0
17	13-4	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Avery Thaler	set Rachel Koss	+0.1
18	14-4	ABILCH	ABILCH	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Brennan Ramirez	+0.0
19	14-5	ABILCH	ORU	Serve err	ABILCH server		+0.0
20	15-5	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+0.0
21	15-6	ABILCH	ORU	Attack err	Hadlee Welch		+0.0
22	16-6	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Rachel Koss	+0.0
23	16-7	ABILCH	ORU	Kill	Libby Ryan	set Ana Appel	+0.0
24	16-8	ORU	ORU	Attack err	Hannah Gonzalez		+0.0
25	17-8	ORU	ABILCH×6	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Rachel Koss	+0.0
26	18-8	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Ace	ABILCH server	aced Team	+0.0
27	19-8	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Kill	Maddie Finnegan	set Rachel Koss	+0.0
28	20-8	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Kill	Maddie Finnegan	set Rachel Koss	+0.0
29	21-8	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Attack err	Libby Ryan	blk Hannah Gonzalez, Annaleise Sevier	+0.0
30	22-8	ABILCH	ABILCH×6	Ace	ABILCH server	aced Ciara Cunningham	+0.0
31	22-9	ABILCH	ORU×4	Serve err	ABILCH server		+0.0
32	22-10	ORU	ORU×4	Kill	Libby Ryan	set Ana Appel	+0.0
33	22-11	ORU	ORU×4	Kill	Ciara Cunningham	set Ana Appel	+0.0
34	22-12	ORU	ORU×4	Attack err	Isa Richardson	blk Tarcy Mayah, Libby Ryan	+0.0
35	23-12	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Annaleise Sevier	set Pierson Smith	+0.0
36	24-12	ABILCH	ABILCH	Ace	ABILCH server	aced Team	+0.0
37	24-13	ABILCH	ORU×3	Serve err	ABILCH server		+0.0
38	24-14	ORU	ORU×3	Kill	Elyse Dube	set Olivia Burns	+0.0
39	24-15	ORU	ORU×3	Attack err	Annaleise Sevier		+0.0
40	25-15	ORU	ABILCH	Kill	Izabelle Larson	set Pierson Smith	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Abilene Christian first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.