Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 29, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Abilene Christian def. Central Ark. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Abilene Christian 57.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 29, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Abilene Christian won at Central Ark. 3-2 (17-25, 25-16, 23-25, 25-20, 15-9) on Thu, Oct 29, 2026. Abilene Christian's Alyssa Todd led with 12 kills, and Brennan Ramirez added 21 digs.

Data through · final Oct 29

Set12345Sets
ABILCH17252325153
C ARK2516252092

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Rachel Koss, and Abilene Christian needed each of them.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Abilene Christian's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ gave Abilene Christian 58% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Abilene Christian 8–7 Central Ark.

    Down 7–8, Central Ark. scored 9 straight to lead 16–8. The match swung to Central Ark.

    Abilene Christian 58% → 30%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Abilene Christian 18–14 Central Ark.

    5 straight Central Ark. points turned a 14–18 deficit into a 19–18 lead.

    Abilene Christian 47% → 22%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Abilene Christian 18–19 Central Ark.

    Down 18–19, Abilene Christian scored 6 straight to lead 24–19. The match swung to Abilene Christian.

    Abilene Christian 22% → 53%

Central Ark. above 50Abilene Christian belowMax swing 10.4%

Abilene ChristianCentral Ark.

Sideout %
Abilene Christian 54.7·Central Ark. 49.5
Break %
Abilene Christian 50.5·Central Ark. 45.3
Hitting
Abilene Christian .143·Central Ark. .056
Longest run
Abilene Christian 6·Central Ark. 9

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Central Ark. above 50 · Abilene Christian below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+10.4% C ARKrally 200 · set 5

Biggest swing: 10.4% to Central Ark. — set 3, ABILCH 23-25 C ARK. Service error by Brennan Ramirez. C ARK win probability 61% → 72%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ABILCH 61.6%38.4% C ARK

Abilene Christian wins

3-0
18.0%
3-1
23.5%
3-2
20.0%

Central Ark. wins

3-0
8.2%
3-1
13.9%
3-2
16.3%
ABILCH break %
44.0% vs this opp
C ARK break %
41.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Brennan RamirezService error+10.4%

    Service error by Brennan Ramirez

    Set 3 · ABILCH 23-25 C ARK · C ARK 61% → 72%

  2. 02

    Kill by Annaleise Sevier (set by Brennan Ramirez)

    Set 5 · ABILCH 7-5 C ARK · ABILCH 62% → 72%

  3. 03
    Alyssa ToddAttack error+10.0%

    Attack error by Alyssa Todd

    Set 5 · ABILCH 5-5 C ARK · C ARK 36% → 46%

  4. 04

    Kennady Martindale stuffed by Annaleise Sevier & Avery Thaler

    Set 5 · ABILCH 9-6 C ARK · ABILCH 73% → 83%

  5. 05
    Ella ChaneyAttack error+9.2%

    Attack error by Ella Chaney

    Set 5 · ABILCH 3-2 C ARK · ABILCH 52% → 61%

  6. 06
    McKinzee HaasKill+9.0%

    Kill by McKinzee Haas (set by Sophie Skinner)

    Set 5 · ABILCH 1-2 C ARK · C ARK 46% → 55%

  7. 07

    Kill by Hannah Gonzalez

    Set 5 · ABILCH 4-2 C ARK · ABILCH 61% → 70%

  8. 08

    Kill by Nicole Sargent (set by Sophie Skinner)

    Set 3 · ABILCH 21-23 C ARK · C ARK 54% → 62%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
512242.2381012100012
59728.07100040031.510.5
58317.29410020031.59.5
53413-.07701320052.56.5
52021.0002641700006
53213.077201420214
5000–4132100001
5000–001300000
34519-.053000300215
3319.22200020010.53.5
3104.250112400002
3000–021400002
3000–501100000
Team totals4524147.143409145960168105
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
512428.28601130132.515.5
510432.18801315202112
58727.03710040031.59.5
5318.2502800300003
44615-.13300000031.55.5
441023-.261001310004
5002.0004411120004
5001.0000011410000
5000–101500000
35719-.10500010010.55.5
3011-1.000900200000
13031.000000000003
1112.000000000001
1000–002000000
Team totals5041161.05643610619112795

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Abilene Christian vs Central Ark.

Season series · Abilene Christian leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 ABILCH · C ARK 9

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 ABILCHC ARK 5

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 5 ABILCHC ARK 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 5 ABILCHC ARK 9

Set 4

25-20

Longest run 6 ABILCHC ARK 5

Set 5

15-9

Longest run 4 ABILCHC ARK 2

Bars above the line = Central Ark. leads, below = Abilene Christian leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Abilene Christian

SlotSideout %Break %
1
39%12/31
44%8/18
2
56%9/16
31%5/16
3
75%9/12
57%12/21
4
47%8/17
47%7/15
5
78%7/9
46%6/13
6
70%7/10
68%15/22
All
55%52/95
50%53/105

Central Ark.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%12/22
63%15/24
2
50%9/18
33%5/15
3
60%9/15
44%7/16
4
50%8/16
31%4/13
5
41%7/17
53%9/17
6
41%7/17
30%3/10
All
50%52/105
45%43/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

200 rallies

#ABILCH-C ARKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0C ARKABILCHKillAvery Thalerset Rachel Koss+1.8
21-1ABILCHC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Olivia Kremer+1.8
32-1C ARKABILCHKillRachel Kossset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.8
42-2ABILCHC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.9
52-3C ARKC ARKKillGreyson Button+2.6
63-3C ARKABILCHKillHadlee Welchset Rachel Koss+1.9
73-4ABILCHC ARKAttack errMaddie Finnegan+2.0
83-5C ARKC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.7
94-5C ARKABILCHKillAlyssa Toddset Rachel Koss+1.9
104-6ABILCHC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.1
114-7C ARKC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.7
125-7C ARKABILCHKillAubrey Beaverset Rachel Koss+1.8
136-7ABILCHABILCHAttack errElla Chaney+2.7
146-8ABILCHC ARKServe errHannah Gonzalez+2.2
157-8C ARKABILCHKillAvery Thalerset Rachel Koss+2.0
167-9ABILCHC ARKServe errRachel Koss+2.2
177-10C ARKC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.9
188-10C ARKABILCHAttack errNicole Sargent+1.9
199-10ABILCHABILCHKillAlyssa Toddset Brennan Ramirez+2.9
209-11ABILCHC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.4
2110-11C ARKABILCH×3KillHadlee Welchset Rachel Koss+2.2
2211-11ABILCHABILCH×3KillHannah Gonzalez+3.2
2312-11ABILCHABILCH×3KillAlyssa Toddset Rachel Koss+3.3
2412-12ABILCHC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.4
2513-12C ARKABILCHServe errCentral Ark.+2.5
2613-13ABILCHC ARKServe errAbby Christian+2.5
2714-13C ARKABILCHKillAlyssa Toddset Rachel Koss+2.6
2814-14ABILCHC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.7
2915-14C ARKABILCHServe errCentral Ark.+2.8
3015-15ABILCHC ARK×4KillTatelyn Brandsmaset Olivia Kremer+2.8
3115-16C ARKC ARK×4BlockedAvery Thalerblk Ella Chaney, Karlyn Frazier+4.0
3215-17C ARKC ARK×4BlockedAubrey Beaverblk Karlyn Frazier, Nicole Sargent+4.0
3315-18C ARKC ARK×4KillElla Chaneyset Cameron McDaniel+3.8
3416-18C ARKABILCHAttack errKarlyn Frazier+2.3
3516-19ABILCHC ARK×5KillNicole Sargentset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.9
3616-20C ARKC ARK×5Attack errAubrey Beaver+3.2
3716-21C ARKC ARK×5KillNicole Sargentset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.3
3816-22C ARKC ARK×5BlockedHadlee Welchblk Karlyn Frazier, Nicole Sargent+1.3
3916-23C ARKC ARK×5AceElla Chaney+0.6
4017-23C ARKABILCHKillAvery Thalerset Rachel Koss+0.1
4117-24ABILCHC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.3
4217-25C ARKC ARKAceOlivia Kremeraced Maddie Finnegan+0.1
Set 2
11-0ABILCHABILCHKillAlyssa Toddset Rachel Koss+2.6
21-1ABILCHC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Olivia Kremer+2.0
32-1C ARKABILCHServe errCentral Ark.+2.0
42-2ABILCHC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.0
52-3C ARKC ARKAceOlivia Kremer+2.8
63-3C ARKABILCHKillHadlee Welchset Rachel Koss+2.1
73-4ABILCHC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.1
84-4C ARKABILCH×4KillHannah Gonzalezset Rachel Koss+2.1
95-4ABILCHABILCH×4Attack errSarah Carnathan+2.9
106-4ABILCHABILCH×4AceIzabelle Larsonaced Ella Chaney+2.8
117-4ABILCHABILCH×4BlockedGreyson Buttonblk Hannah Gonzalez, Aubrey Beaver+2.6
127-5ABILCHC ARK×3KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.8
137-6C ARKC ARK×3Attack errAubrey Beaver+2.8
147-7C ARKC ARK×3BlockedHannah Gonzalezblk Greyson Button, Ella Chaney+3.0
158-7C ARKABILCHServe errCentral Ark.+2.3
168-8ABILCHC ARKKillTatelyn Brandsma+2.3
179-8C ARKABILCH×5KillIzabelle Larsonset Rachel Koss+2.4
1810-8ABILCHABILCH×5BlockedKarlyn Frazierblk Aubrey Beaver, Avery Thaler+3.1
1911-8ABILCHABILCH×5Attack errTatelyn Brandsma+2.9
2012-8ABILCHABILCH×5AceRachel Kossaced Trinity Hamilton+2.6
2113-8ABILCHABILCH×5KillHadlee Welchset Rachel Koss+2.2
2213-9ABILCHC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.3
2314-9C ARKABILCH×3KillHadlee Welchset Avery Thaler+1.6
2415-9ABILCHABILCH×3Attack errElla Chaney+1.7
2516-9ABILCHABILCH×3KillAvery Thalerset Rachel Koss+1.2
2616-10ABILCHC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.6
2717-10C ARKABILCHAttack errSarah Carnathan+0.9
2817-11ABILCHC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.6
2917-12C ARKC ARKAttack errHadlee Welch+1.2
3018-12C ARKABILCHBlockedSarah Carnathanblk Hadlee Welch, Hannah Gonzalez+1.2
3118-13ABILCHC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.8
3219-13C ARKABILCH×3Attack errSarah Carnathan+1.1
3320-13ABILCHABILCH×3KillAubrey Beaverset Rachel Koss+0.9
3421-13ABILCHABILCH×3Attack errGreyson Button+0.5
3521-14ABILCHC ARK×3Serve errIzabelle Larson+0.2
3621-15C ARKC ARK×3KillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.4
3721-16C ARKC ARK×3KillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.7
3822-16C ARKABILCH×4KillAubrey Beaverset Izabelle Larson+0.9
3923-16ABILCHABILCH×4AceJayla Jacksonaced Olivia Kremer+0.5
4024-16ABILCHABILCH×4KillAubrey Beaverset Rachel Koss+0.2
4125-16ABILCHABILCH×4KillAvery Thalerset Rachel Koss·
Set 3
11-0C ARKABILCHKillAvery Thalerset Rachel Koss+2.4
21-1ABILCHC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.4
32-1C ARKABILCHAttack errSarah Carnathan+2.5
43-1ABILCHABILCHKillAlyssa Toddset Brennan Ramirez+3.2
53-2ABILCHC ARKAttack errHannah Gonzalez+2.4
64-2C ARKABILCHKillAlyssa Toddset Rachel Koss+2.5
74-3ABILCHC ARKAttack errAubrey Beaver+2.4
84-4C ARKC ARKAttack errAubrey Beaver+3.5
95-4C ARKABILCHServe errCentral Ark.+2.6
106-4ABILCHABILCHAttack errSarah Carnathan+3.5
116-5ABILCHC ARKServe errHannah Gonzalez+2.5
126-6C ARKC ARKAttack errAvery Thaler+3.6
137-6C ARKABILCHKillAvery Thalerset Rachel Koss+2.8
147-7ABILCHC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.8
158-7C ARKABILCHKillRachel Kossset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.9
168-8ABILCHC ARK×9Serve errMaddie Finnegan+2.9
178-9C ARKC ARK×9Bad setBrennan Ramirez+4.1
188-10C ARKC ARK×9BlockedAvery Thalerblk Greyson Button, Nicole Sargent+4.1
198-11C ARKC ARK×9Attack errHadlee Welch+4.0
208-12C ARKC ARK×9KillGreyson Button+3.7
218-13C ARKC ARK×9Attack errAlyssa Todd+3.2
228-14C ARKC ARK×9KillElla Chaneyset Olivia Kremer+2.6
238-15C ARKC ARK×9KillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.0
248-16C ARKC ARK×9KillNicole Sargentset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.4
259-16C ARKABILCHAttack errSarah Carnathan+0.7
269-17ABILCHC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Ella Chaney+1.0
2710-17C ARKABILCH×4KillHadlee Welchset Brennan Ramirez+0.6
2811-17ABILCHABILCH×4Attack errSarah Carnathan+1.2
2912-17ABILCHABILCH×4Attack errSarah Carnathan+1.7
3013-17ABILCHABILCH×4Attack errSarah Carnathan+2.4
3113-18ABILCHC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.4
3214-18C ARKABILCHKillAlyssa Toddset Pierson Smith+1.7
3314-19ABILCHC ARKServe errIzabelle Larson+2.4
3415-19C ARKABILCHServe errCentral Ark.+1.6
3515-20ABILCHC ARKServe errHannah Gonzalez+2.4
3616-20C ARKABILCH×5KillMaddie Finneganset Pierson Smith+1.5
3717-20ABILCHABILCH×5Attack errNicole Sargent+3.0
3818-20ABILCHABILCH×5AceRachel Kossaced Sarah Carnathan+4.2
3919-20ABILCHABILCH×5Attack errKarlyn Frazier+5.6
4020-20ABILCHABILCH×5AceRachel Kossaced Olivia Kremer+6.9
4120-21ABILCHC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Sophie Skinner+5.9
4221-21C ARKABILCHKillAvery Thalerset Maddie Finnegan+5.7
4321-22ABILCHC ARK×3Attack errHadlee Welch+6.7
4421-23C ARKC ARK×3KillNicole Sargentset Sophie Skinner+8.9
4521-24C ARKC ARK×3KillGreyson Buttonset Sophie Skinner+6.5
4622-24C ARKABILCHAttack errNicole Sargent+1.9
4723-24ABILCHABILCHBlockedKennady Martindaleblk Hannah Gonzalez, Hadlee Welch+5.9
4823-25ABILCHC ARKServe errBrennan Ramirez+10.4
Set 4
11-0ABILCHABILCHKillHadlee Welch+3.5
22-0ABILCHABILCHAceRachel Koss+3.4
32-1ABILCHC ARK×3KillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.5
42-2C ARKC ARK×3AceOlivia Kremeraced Maddie Finnegan+3.6
52-3C ARKC ARK×3BlockedHannah Gonzalezblk Greyson Button+3.7
63-3C ARKABILCHServe errOlivia Kremer+2.7
74-3ABILCHABILCHAttack errNicole Sargent+3.7
84-4ABILCHC ARKKillKennady Martindaleset Olivia Kremer+2.8
95-4C ARKABILCHKillHadlee Welchset Alyssa Todd+2.8
106-4ABILCHABILCHAceHannah Gonzalez+3.7
116-5ABILCHC ARKKillKennady Martindaleset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.7
126-6C ARKC ARKAttack errHadlee Welch+3.9
137-6C ARKABILCHKillHadlee Welchset Rachel Koss+3.0
148-6ABILCHABILCHAttack errGreyson Button+3.9
158-7ABILCHC ARK×4Serve errPierson Smith+2.8
168-8C ARKC ARK×4KillTatelyn Brandsmaset Annaleise Sevier+4.1
178-9C ARKC ARK×4Attack errAnnaleise Sevier+4.3
188-10C ARKC ARK×4AceGreyson Buttonaced Alyssa Todd+4.4
199-10C ARKABILCHServe errGreyson Button+3.1
2010-10ABILCHABILCHAttack errKarlyn Frazier+4.4
2110-11ABILCHC ARKServe errAlyssa Todd+3.5
2211-11C ARKABILCH×4KillAnnaleise Sevierset Pierson Smith+3.4
2312-11ABILCHABILCH×4Attack errElla Chaney+4.7
2413-11ABILCHABILCH×4Attack errKarlyn Frazier+4.6
2514-11ABILCHABILCH×4KillMaddie Finneganset Pierson Smith+4.2
2614-12ABILCHC ARKServe errBrennan Ramirez+2.8
2715-12C ARKABILCH×3Serve errCentral Ark.+3.2
2816-12ABILCHABILCH×3BlockedNicole Sargentblk Maddie Finnegan, Hannah Gonzalez+3.7
2917-12ABILCHABILCH×3Attack errKennady Martindale+3.0
3017-13ABILCHC ARKAttack errMaddie Finnegan+1.6
3117-14C ARKC ARKAceOlivia Kremer+3.0
3218-14C ARKABILCHBlockedNicole Sargentblk Hannah Gonzalez, Maddie Finnegan+2.9
3318-15ABILCHC ARK×5KillKennady Martindaleset Nicole Sargent+2.2
3418-16C ARKC ARK×5Attack errHadlee Welch+4.1
3518-17C ARKC ARK×5Attack errHadlee Welch+5.2
3618-18C ARKC ARK×5KillKennady Martindaleset Sophie Skinner+6.3
3718-19C ARKC ARK×5BlockedHannah Gonzalezblk Greyson Button, Kennady Martindale+7.0
3819-19C ARKABILCH×6Attack errGreyson Button+5.1
3920-19ABILCHABILCH×6AceJayla Jackson+7.4
4021-19ABILCHABILCH×6BlockedKennady Martindaleblk Avery Thaler, Hadlee Welch+7.1
4122-19ABILCHABILCH×6Attack errKennady Martindale+5.9
4223-19ABILCHABILCH×6Attack errSophie Skinner+3.8
4324-19ABILCHABILCH×6KillAlyssa Toddset Rachel Koss+1.8
4424-20ABILCHC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Sophie Skinner+0.3
4525-20C ARKABILCHKillAlyssa Toddset Rachel Koss+0.3
Set 5
11-0ABILCHABILCHAttack errNicole Sargent+8.5
21-1ABILCHC ARKKillKennady Martindaleset Sophie Skinner+6.4
31-2C ARKC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+9.0
42-2C ARKABILCH×3KillMaddie Finneganset Rachel Koss+6.6
53-2ABILCHABILCH×3Attack errElla Chaney+9.2
64-2ABILCHABILCH×3KillHannah Gonzalez+8.9
74-3ABILCHC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+6.3
85-3C ARKABILCHKillAlyssa Toddset Maddie Finnegan+6.9
95-4ABILCHC ARKServe errJayla Jackson+6.5
105-5C ARKC ARKAttack errAlyssa Todd+10.0
116-5C ARKABILCHKillAlyssa Toddset Rachel Koss+7.8
127-5ABILCHABILCHKillAnnaleise Sevierset Brennan Ramirez+10.2
137-6ABILCHC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Sophie Skinner+7.0
148-6C ARKABILCHServe errCentral Ark.+8.0
159-6ABILCHABILCHBlockedKennady Martindaleblk Annaleise Sevier, Avery Thaler+9.6
169-7ABILCHC ARKKillAnnie Hopkinsset Tatelyn Brandsma+5.8
1710-7C ARKABILCH×4Attack errKennady Martindale+7.4
1811-7ABILCHABILCH×4AceBrennan Ramirezaced Ella Chaney+7.6
1912-7ABILCHABILCH×4Attack errKennady Martindale+4.8
2013-7ABILCHABILCH×4Attack errAnnie Hopkins+2.4
2113-8ABILCHC ARKServe errBrennan Ramirez+0.6
2214-8C ARKABILCHKillAnnaleise Sevierset Pierson Smith+1.2
2314-9ABILCHC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+0.3
2415-9C ARKABILCHServe errCentral Ark.+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Abilene Christian first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).