Final · 5 setsSun, Oct 4, 2026Watch on MEAC Network

Howard def. UMES 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Howard 77.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 4, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Howard won at UMES 3-2 (25-14, 25-23, 19-25, 19-25, 15-5) on Sun, Oct 4, 2026. Howard's Addison Buckner led with 19 kills, and Camryn Shelton added 20 digs.

Data through · final Oct 4

Set12345Sets
HOWARD25251919153
UMES1423252552

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Estrella Vazquez served 5 aces, and Howard needed every one.

The match turned once; each line shows Howard's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Howard went in as RallyIQ's 77% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Howard 0–0 UMES

    Howard opened the set with 7 straight points for a 7–0 lead.

    Howard 64% → 98%

UMES above 50Howard belowMax swing 7.4%

HowardUMES

Sideout %
Howard 52.7·UMES 47.1
Break %
Howard 52.9·UMES 47.3
Hitting
Howard .211·UMES .127
Longest run
Howard 7·UMES 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UMES above 50 · Howard below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+7.4% HOWARDrally 195 · set 5

Biggest swing: 7.4% to Howard — set 5, HOWARD 2-0 UMES. Bad set by Arianna Warner Torres. UMES win probability 30% → 23%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

HOWARD 85.3%14.7% UMES

Howard wins

3-0
37.5%
3-1
31.4%
3-2
16.4%

UMES wins

3-0
2.2%
3-1
4.7%
3-2
7.8%
HOWARD break %
46.8% vs this opp
UMES break %
38.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Bad set by Arianna Warner Torres

    Set 5 · HOWARD 2-0 UMES · HOWARD 70% → 77%

  2. 02
    Alexys JamesKill+6.5%

    Kill by Alexys James (set by Sydnei Jones)

    Set 5 · HOWARD 3-0 UMES · HOWARD 77% → 83%

  3. 03
    Alexys JamesKill+5.6%

    Kill by Alexys James

    Set 5 · HOWARD 1-0 UMES · HOWARD 64% → 70%

  4. 04
    Jayda HutchinsAttack error+5.4%

    Attack error by Jayda Hutchins

    Set 5 · HOWARD 4-0 UMES · HOWARD 83% → 89%

  5. 05
    Zenai JethroeKill+5.3%

    Kill by Zenai Jethroe

    Set 2 · HOWARD 25-23 UMES · HOWARD 90% → 96%

  6. 06
    Alexys JamesAttack error+4.6%

    Attack error by Alexys James

    Set 2 · HOWARD 23-23 UMES · UMES 9% → 14%

  7. 07
    Alexys JamesKill+4.3%

    Kill by Alexys James (set by Camryn Shelton)

    Set 2 · HOWARD 24-23 UMES · HOWARD 86% → 90%

  8. 08

    Kill by Addison Buckner (set by Camryn Shelton)

    Set 5 · HOWARD 5-0 UMES · HOWARD 89% → 93%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Howardaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519549.28600414000019
511121.47610030233.514.5
58419.21122328000011
5104.2502011600002
51011.0000011300001
2002.000000100000
57421.14300040111.58.5
5000–251300005
5113.0004322000004
48529.103000500219
4003.00010000111.51.5
1014-.250000001011
11011.000100000001
1012-.50000010010.50.5
1012-.500000000000
Team totals5723161.211511211785589103
UMEShome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514539.2310002010115
510421.28600000132.512.5
57744.0007231100009
5318.25000020414.57.5
53318.000030300006
5128-.1254002000001
5015-.2001001700000
5012-.5001100910000
5001.0001001300000
47111.54500010031.58.5
2000–30020010.50.5
1000–000000000
Team totals4525157.12736547012681092

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Howard vs UMES

Season series · Howard leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 HOWARD · UMES 6

Set 1

25-14

Longest run 6 HOWARDUMES 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 HOWARDUMES 4

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 5 HOWARDUMES 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 4 HOWARDUMES 6

Set 5

15-5

Longest run 7 HOWARDUMES 3

Bars above the line = UMES leads, below = Howard leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Howard

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
38%5/13
2
69%9/13
65%17/26
3
64%9/14
44%7/16
4
47%9/19
40%6/15
5
40%6/15
71%17/24
6
40%6/15
25%2/8
All
53%49/93
53%54/102

UMES

SlotSideout %Break %
1
42%10/24
56%10/18
2
45%9/20
29%4/14
3
64%9/14
40%6/15
4
41%7/17
47%8/17
5
44%7/16
50%7/14
6
55%6/11
60%9/15
All
47%48/102
47%44/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

195 rallies

#HOWARD-UMESSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UMESHOWARD×3Serve errUMES+1.3
22-0HOWARDHOWARD×3AceHoward+1.7
33-0HOWARDHOWARD×3KillAddison Bucknerset Camryn Shelton+1.5
43-1HOWARDUMESKillDynasty Andrewsset Jayda Hutchins+1.1
54-1UMESHOWARD×5KillZenai Jethroeset Sydnei Jones+1.1
65-1HOWARDHOWARD×5KillAddison Bucknerset Alexys James+1.4
76-1HOWARDHOWARD×5AceHoward+1.2
87-1HOWARDHOWARD×5Attack errRayah Howell+0.9
98-1HOWARDHOWARD×5AceHoward+0.7
108-2HOWARDUMESKillKarielys Melendezset Jayda Hutchins+0.4
119-2UMESHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Alexys James+0.5
129-3HOWARDUMESKillRayah Howellset Jayda Hutchins+0.4
1310-3UMESHOWARD×6KillDayion Johnsonset Alexys James+0.5
1411-3HOWARDHOWARD×6Attack errJayda Hutchins+0.5
1512-3HOWARDHOWARD×6KillEasnadh Nobel Tooloset Alexys James+0.4
1613-3HOWARDHOWARD×6KillDayion Johnson+0.2
1714-3HOWARDHOWARD×6Attack errMalaysia Shaw+0.1
1815-3HOWARDHOWARD×6Attack errJayda Hutchins+0.1
1915-4HOWARDUMESKillMalaysia Shawset Alexys James·
2016-4UMESHOWARDAttack errKarielys Melendez·
2116-5HOWARDUMESAttack errCamryn Shelton·
2216-6UMESUMESAceUMES+0.1
2317-6UMESHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+0.1
2418-6HOWARDHOWARDAttack errDynasty Andrews·
2518-7HOWARDUMES×3KillJayda Hutchinsset Kate - Linh Eden·
2618-8UMESUMES×3BlockedAlexys Jamesblk Rayah Howell·
2718-9UMESUMES×3KillShayla Henryset Jayda Hutchins+0.1
2819-9UMESHOWARDBad setArianna Warner Torres+0.1
2919-10HOWARDUMESKillRayah Howellset Jayda Hutchins·
3020-10UMESHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Sydnei Jones+0.1
3120-11HOWARDUMES×3KillRayah Howellset Jayda Hutchins·
3220-12UMESUMES×3KillMalaysia Shaw+0.1
3320-13UMESUMES×3KillRayah Howellset Jayda Hutchins+0.1
3421-13UMESHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.2
3522-13HOWARDHOWARDBlockedMalaysia Shawblk Zenai Jethroe+0.1
3622-14HOWARDUMESBad setAlexys James·
3723-14UMESHOWARD×3KillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James·
3824-14HOWARDHOWARD×3KillDayion Johnsonset Estrella Vazquez·
3925-14HOWARDHOWARD×3AceHowardaced Arianna Warner Torres·
Set 2
11-0HOWARDHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+1.4
21-1HOWARDUMESServe errHoward+1.1
31-2UMESUMESAttack errAddison Buckner+1.6
42-2UMESHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+1.1
52-3HOWARDUMES×3Attack errZenai Jethroe+1.2
62-4UMESUMES×3BlockedAddison Bucknerblk Dynasty Andrews+1.8
72-5UMESUMES×3KillJayda Hutchinsset Arianna Warner Torres+1.8
83-5UMESHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+1.2
93-6HOWARDUMESKillDynasty Andrewsset Arianna Warner Torres+1.4
104-6UMESHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Alexys James+1.2
115-6HOWARDHOWARDBlockedJocelyn Torresblk Zenai Jethroe+1.7
125-7HOWARDUMES×4Serve errHoward+1.4
135-8UMESUMES×4Bad setAlexys James+2.0
145-9UMESUMES×4KillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+1.9
155-10UMESUMES×4Bad setZenai Jethroe+1.8
166-10UMESHOWARD×5KillDayion Johnsonset Alexys James+1.0
177-10HOWARDHOWARD×5KillDayion Johnsonset Estrella Vazquez+1.7
188-10HOWARDHOWARD×5AceHoward+1.8
199-10HOWARDHOWARD×5KillEasnadh Nobel Tooloset Lauryn Wiley+1.9
2010-10HOWARDHOWARD×5AceHoward+2.0
2110-11HOWARDUMESKillDynasty Andrewsset Jocelyn Torres+1.5
2211-11UMESHOWARDKillDayion Johnsonset Alexys James+1.4
2312-11HOWARDHOWARDAceHoward+2.0
2412-12HOWARDUMESKillMalaysia Shawset Jocelyn Torres+1.5
2513-12UMESHOWARDKillDayion Johnsonset Sydnei Jones+1.5
2613-13HOWARDUMESKillJayda Hutchinsset Arianna Warner Torres+1.5
2714-13UMESHOWARDAttack errArianna Warner Torres+1.5
2814-14HOWARDUMESKillShayla Henryset Arianna Warner Torres+1.6
2915-14UMESHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+1.6
3015-15HOWARDUMESServe errHoward+1.7
3116-15UMESHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+1.7
3216-16HOWARDUMESServe errHoward+1.8
3317-16UMESHOWARD×4KillAddison Bucknerset Zenai Jethroe+1.8
3418-16HOWARDHOWARD×4AceHoward+2.3
3519-16HOWARDHOWARD×4BlockedRayah Howellblk Dayion Johnson, Kaitlynn Robinson+1.9
3620-16HOWARDHOWARD×4KillLauryn Wileyset Estrella Vazquez+1.4
3720-17HOWARDUMESKillRayah Howellset Karielys Melendez+0.7
3820-18UMESUMESAttack errDayion Johnson+1.6
3921-18UMESHOWARDKillEasnadh Nobel Tooloset Alexys James+1.5
4022-18HOWARDHOWARDAttack errJayda Hutchins+1.4
4122-19HOWARDUMESKillMalaysia Shawset Jocelyn Torres+0.6
4222-20UMESUMESBlockedDayion Johnsonblk Malaysia Shaw+1.5
4323-20UMESHOWARDBlockedJayda Hutchinsblk Kaitlynn Robinson+1.6
4423-21HOWARDUMES×3KillKyra Bradfordset Karielys Melendez+0.9
4523-22UMESUMES×3BlockedAddison Bucknerblk Malaysia Shaw, Kyra Bradford+2.6
4623-23UMESUMES×3Attack errAlexys James+4.6
4724-23UMESHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Camryn Shelton+4.3
4825-23HOWARDHOWARDKillZenai Jethroe+5.3
Set 3
11-0UMESHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+0.5
21-1HOWARDUMESKillMalaysia Shawset Arianna Warner Torres+0.6
32-1UMESHOWARDServe errUMES+0.6
42-2HOWARDUMESKillMalaysia Shawset Arianna Warner Torres+0.6
53-2UMESHOWARDKillEasnadh Nobel Tooloset Alexys James+0.6
64-2HOWARDHOWARDBlockedKyra Bradfordblk Zenai Jethroe, Dayion Johnson+0.7
74-3HOWARDUMES×3KillKyra Bradfordset Arianna Warner Torres+0.5
84-4UMESUMES×3Attack errDynasty Andrews+0.8
94-5UMESUMES×3BlockedDayion Johnsonblk Dynasty Andrews+0.9
105-5UMESHOWARDAttack errShayla Henry+0.6
115-6HOWARDUMES×4KillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+0.7
125-7UMESUMES×4AceUMES+1.0
135-8UMESUMES×4KillJayda Hutchinsset Karielys Melendez+1.1
145-9UMESUMES×4KillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+1.0
156-9UMESHOWARDKillDayion Johnsonset Alexys James+0.6
166-10HOWARDUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+0.8
177-10UMESHOWARD×3Attack errRayah Howell+0.6
188-10HOWARDHOWARD×3KillSydnei Jonesset Alexys James+1.0
199-10HOWARDHOWARD×3Attack errMalaysia Shaw+1.0
209-11HOWARDUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+0.9
2110-11UMESHOWARD×5KillGabby Allenset Sydnei Jones+0.8
2211-11HOWARDHOWARD×5KillAddison Bucknerset Alexys James+1.1
2312-11HOWARDHOWARD×5Attack errJayda Hutchins+1.1
2413-11HOWARDHOWARD×5KillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+1.0
2514-11HOWARDHOWARD×5AceHoward+0.9
2614-12HOWARDUMESServe errHoward+0.6
2714-13UMESUMESKillMalaysia Shawset Arianna Warner Torres+1.0
2815-13UMESHOWARDServe errUMES+0.8
2915-14HOWARDUMESKillKyra Bradfordset Alexys James+0.7
3015-15UMESUMESBlockedEasnadh Nobel Tooloblk Dynasty Andrews, Kyra Bradford+1.3
3116-15UMESHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.9
3216-16HOWARDUMES×3Serve errHoward+1.0
3316-17UMESUMES×3BlockedDayion Johnsonblk Dynasty Andrews+1.5
3416-18UMESUMES×3KillShayla Henryset Jocelyn Torres+1.6
3517-18UMESHOWARDServe errUMES+1.0
3617-19HOWARDUMESServe errHoward+1.3
3718-19UMESHOWARDKillEasnadh Nobel Tooloset Alexys James+1.0
3818-20HOWARDUMES×3Serve errHoward+1.4
3918-21UMESUMES×3Attack errDayion Johnson+1.7
4018-22UMESUMES×3KillMalaysia Shaw+1.3
4119-22UMESHOWARDKillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+0.5
4219-23HOWARDUMES×3KillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+0.9
4319-24UMESUMES×3Attack errAddison Buckner+0.6
4419-25UMESUMES×3Bad setSydnei Jones+0.2
Set 4
10-1HOWARDUMESKillKyra Bradford+1.8
21-1UMESHOWARDBad setArianna Warner Torres+1.7
32-1HOWARDHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Sydnei Jones+2.3
42-2HOWARDUMESServe errHoward+1.7
52-3UMESUMESBad setSydnei Jones+2.6
63-3UMESHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+1.7
74-3HOWARDHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Dynasty Andrews+2.4
84-4HOWARDUMES×3Serve errHoward+1.8
94-5UMESUMES×3BlockedEasnadh Nobel Tooloblk Dynasty Andrews+2.7
104-6UMESUMES×3AceUMES+2.9
115-6UMESHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Kaitlynn Robinson+1.9
125-7HOWARDUMESKillJayda Hutchinsset Lila Bryant+2.2
136-7UMESHOWARDKillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+1.9
146-8HOWARDUMES×5Attack errCorinne Howard+2.2
156-9UMESUMES×5AceUMES+3.1
166-10UMESUMES×5KillKyra Bradfordset Karielys Melendez+3.1
176-11UMESUMES×5Attack errEasnadh Nobel Toolo+2.9
186-12UMESUMES×5Bad setCorinne Howard+2.5
197-12UMESHOWARDKillEasnadh Nobel Tooloset Alexys James+1.4
207-13HOWARDUMES×6KillJayda Hutchinsset Arianna Warner Torres+1.9
217-14UMESUMES×6Attack errAlexys James+2.1
227-15UMESUMES×6Attack errBriana Pagan+1.6
237-16UMESUMES×6AceUMES+1.1
247-17UMESUMES×6BlockedAlexys Jamesblk Malaysia Shaw, Kyra Bradford+0.7
257-18UMESUMES×6KillKyra Bradfordset Arianna Warner Torres+0.4
268-18UMESHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+0.1
279-18HOWARDHOWARDBad setArianna Warner Torres+0.3
289-19HOWARDUMESKillMalaysia Shawset Arianna Warner Torres+0.4
2910-19UMESHOWARD×4KillAddison Bucknerset Camryn Shelton+0.2
3011-19HOWARDHOWARD×4BlockedShayla Henryblk Daryn Watkins, Zenai Jethroe+0.4
3112-19HOWARDHOWARD×4AceHoward+0.6
3213-19HOWARDHOWARD×4KillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+0.9
3313-20HOWARDUMESAttack errDaryn Watkins+1.1
3414-20UMESHOWARDKillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+0.5
3514-21HOWARDUMESBad setAlexys James+1.0
3615-21UMESHOWARDAttack errRayah Howell+0.4
3716-21HOWARDHOWARDBlockedRayah Howellblk Briana Pagan+1.0
3816-22HOWARDUMESServe errHoward+1.3
3916-23UMESUMESKillRayah Howellset Lila Bryant+0.8
4017-23UMESHOWARD×3BlockedJayda Hutchinsblk Easnadh Nobel Toolo+0.2
4118-23HOWARDHOWARD×3KillEasnadh Nobel Tooloset Alexys James+0.5
4219-23HOWARDHOWARD×3AceHoward+0.9
4319-24HOWARDUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+1.3
4419-25UMESUMESKillKyra Bradfordset Alexys James+0.7
Set 5
11-0UMESHOWARD×7KillAlexys James+5.6
22-0HOWARDHOWARD×7Bad setArianna Warner Torres+7.4
33-0HOWARDHOWARD×7KillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+6.5
44-0HOWARDHOWARD×7Attack errJayda Hutchins+5.4
55-0HOWARDHOWARD×7KillAddison Bucknerset Camryn Shelton+4.1
66-0HOWARDHOWARD×7Attack errMalaysia Shaw+3.0
77-0HOWARDHOWARD×7KillAddison Bucknerset Sydnei Jones+1.9
87-1HOWARDUMESBlockedAddison Bucknerblk Kate - Linh Eden, Malaysia Shaw+0.9
98-1UMESHOWARD×3KillAlexys Jamesset Sydnei Jones+1.3
109-1HOWARDHOWARD×3AceHoward+1.0
1110-1HOWARDHOWARD×3KillAddison Bucknerset Alexys James+0.5
1210-2HOWARDUMESKillMalaysia Shawset Kate - Linh Eden+0.2
1311-2UMESHOWARD×3KillZenai Jethroeset Alexys James+0.3
1412-2HOWARDHOWARD×3BlockedShayla Henryblk Zenai Jethroe, Easnadh Nobel Toolo+0.1
1513-2HOWARDHOWARD×3KillCamryn Sheltonset Kate - Linh Eden·
1613-3HOWARDUMES×3KillJayda Hutchinsset Kate - Linh Eden·
1713-4UMESUMES×3KillRayah Howellset Karielys Melendez·
1813-5UMESUMES×3Attack errEasnadh Nobel Toolo·
1914-5UMESHOWARDBad setJocelyn Torres+0.1
2015-5HOWARDHOWARDAttack errKarielys Melendez·

Score shown after each rally, Howard first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).