Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 1, 2026Watch on ESPN+

NIU def. Milwaukee 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Milwaukee 71.2% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

NIU won at Milwaukee 3-2 (15-25, 25-21, 25-23, 21-25, 15-12) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. NIU's Katie Pahl led with 18 kills, and Ava Grevengoed added 17 digs.

Data through · final Oct 1

Set12345Sets
NIU15252521153
MILWKE25212325122

Match story · written from the play-by-play

18 kills from Katie Pahl, and NIU got past Milwaukee.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are NIU's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Milwaukee went in at 71% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · NIU 0–1 Milwaukee

    NIU's low point. NIU then won 25 of the next 45 rallies and the set 25–21.

    NIU 15% → 33%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · NIU 3–1 Milwaukee

    Down 1–3, Milwaukee scored 3 straight to lead 4–3. The match swung to Milwaukee.

    NIU 58% → 33%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · NIU 12–11 Milwaukee

    NIU won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–12 and win the match 3–2.

    NIU 60% → >99%

Milwaukee above 50NIU belowMax swing 22.5%

NIUMilwaukee

Sideout %
NIU 53.8·Milwaukee 56.4
Break %
NIU 43.6·Milwaukee 46.2
Hitting
NIU .227·Milwaukee .227
Longest run
NIU 9·Milwaukee 6

Autumn Flynn
6 of her kills came in the stretches above. 15 K, .387, 18.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Milwaukee above 50 · NIU below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+22.5% NIUrally 207 · set 5

Biggest swing: 22.5% to NIU — set 5, NIU 14-12 MILWKE. Kill by Ava Grevengoed (set by Delaney Steers). MILWKE win probability 36% → 14%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NIU 20.2%79.8% MILWKE

NIU wins

3-0
3.3%
3-1
6.7%
3-2
10.2%

Milwaukee wins

3-0
31.3%
3-1
30.2%
3-2
18.3%
NIU break %
38.6% vs this opp
MILWKE break %
45.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ava GrevengoedKill+22.5%

    Kill by Ava Grevengoed (set by Delaney Steers)

    Set 5 · NIU 14-12 MILWKE · NIU 64% → 86%

  2. 02
    Delaney SteersKill+16.2%

    Kill by Delaney Steers (set by Kylie Schulze)

    Set 5 · NIU 13-12 MILWKE · NIU 48% → 64%

  3. 03
    Delaney SteersKill+13.7%

    Kill by Delaney Steers (set by Viktoria Djukic)

    Set 5 · NIU 12-11 MILWKE · NIU 47% → 60%

  4. 04
    Naomi DowdBlock+13.6%

    Ella Parker stuffed by Naomi Dowd

    Set 5 · NIU 15-12 MILWKE · NIU 86% → 100%

  5. 05
    Katie PahlKill+13.4%

    Kill by Katie Pahl (set by Viktoria Djukic)

    Set 5 · NIU 9-8 MILWKE · NIU 41% → 55%

  6. 06
    Josie NobleKill+12.7%

    Kill by Josie Noble (set by Milica Tomic)

    Set 5 · NIU 12-12 MILWKE · MILWKE 40% → 52%

  7. 07
    Delaney SteersKill+12.0%

    Kill by Delaney Steers (set by Viktoria Djukic)

    Set 5 · NIU 11-10 MILWKE · NIU 46% → 58%

  8. 08
    Ava GrevengoedAttack error+11.5%

    Attack error by Ava Grevengoed

    Set 5 · NIU 7-8 MILWKE · MILWKE 56% → 67%

Box score

Official NCAA box

NIUaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518546.28310210002119
515331.38700270153.518.5
516442.286110171010.517.5
511639.1281119302113
54516-.063000000215
5002.00031101000001
5217.143000100213
5000–6121330001
5002.00023011100000
1000–000000000
Team totals6624185.22763487881148101
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516346.283022182010.518.5
514231.3870001014317
513233.3330228102116
514534.26510020010.514.5
5013-.33332211600002
33310.00000000010.53.5
53520-.10000040031.54.5
5000–1710900001
5000–211400001
5000–7001410000
4338.000000000214
3000–000200000
Team totals6624185.22759867841148106

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

NIU vs Milwaukee

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 9 NIU · MILWKE 6

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 NIUMILWKE 4

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 9 NIUMILWKE 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 NIUMILWKE 6

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 4 NIUMILWKE 4

Set 5

15-12

Longest run 3 NIUMILWKE 3

Bars above the line = Milwaukee leads, below = NIU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

NIU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
36%9/25
36%4/11
2
60%9/15
50%9/18
3
57%8/14
27%3/11
4
64%7/11
42%5/12
5
50%7/14
30%3/10
6
83%5/6
50%7/14
All
53%45/85
41%31/76

Milwaukee

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%9/19
63%12/19
2
62%8/13
50%9/18
3
73%8/11
38%5/13
4
54%7/13
43%6/14
5
78%7/9
36%4/11
6
55%6/11
40%4/10
All
59%45/76
47%40/85

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

207 rallies

#NIU-MILWKESrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MILWKEMILWKEAttack errAva Grevengoed+2.1
21-1MILWKENIUServe errMilwaukee+1.5
31-2NIUMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Milica Tomic+1.5
41-3MILWKEMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+2.0
52-3MILWKENIUServe errMilwaukee+1.5
62-4NIUMILWKEKillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+1.5
73-4MILWKENIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.5
83-5NIUMILWKEKillKami Stoverset Kati Goba+1.5
93-6MILWKEMILWKEAceMilwaukeeaced Delaney Steers+1.9
104-6MILWKENIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+1.3
115-6NIUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+2.1
125-7NIUMILWKEServe errNIU+1.6
135-8MILWKEMILWKEKillAnnie Eschenbachset Kati Goba+2.0
146-8MILWKENIU×3Serve errMilwaukee+1.4
157-8NIUNIU×3BlockedAnnie Eschenbachblk Autumn Flynn+2.2
168-8NIUNIU×3AceNIUaced Ella Parker+2.5
178-9NIUMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+1.8
189-9MILWKENIUKillAva Grevengoedset Charlotte Gramzow+1.9
199-10NIUMILWKE×4KillJosie Nobleset Emma Duffy+1.9
209-11MILWKEMILWKE×4KillKami Stoverset Kati Goba+2.5
219-12MILWKEMILWKE×4KillKami Stoverset Milica Tomic+2.2
229-13MILWKEMILWKE×4KillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+1.9
2310-13MILWKENIUKillNaomi Dowdset Charlotte Gramzow+1.2
2410-14NIUMILWKE×3KillKami Stoverset Milica Tomic+1.4
2510-15MILWKEMILWKE×3KillJosie Nobleset Kami Stover+1.5
2610-16MILWKEMILWKE×3Attack errKatie Pahl+1.1
2711-16MILWKENIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+0.6
2811-17NIUMILWKE×3KillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+0.8
2911-18MILWKEMILWKE×3AceMilwaukeeaced Delaney Steers+0.7
3011-19MILWKEMILWKE×3KillKami Stoverset Milica Tomic+0.4
3112-19MILWKENIUKillDelaney Steersset Charlotte Gramzow+0.2
3213-19NIUNIUAttack errKami Stover+0.4
3313-20NIUMILWKE×3KillKayla Landerudset Milica Tomic+0.4
3413-21MILWKEMILWKE×3Attack errAutumn Flynn+0.3
3513-22MILWKEMILWKE×3KillElla Parker+0.1
3614-22MILWKENIUKillDelaney Steersset Katie Pahl·
3714-23NIUMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Kati Goba+0.1
3814-24MILWKEMILWKEAttack errDelaney Steers·
3915-24MILWKENIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic·
4015-25NIUMILWKEKillKayla Landerudset Emma Duffy·
Set 2
10-1MILWKE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.2
21-1MILWKENIU×5KillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+1.3
32-1NIUNIU×5Bad setJosie Noble+1.9
43-1NIUNIU×5KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+2.0
54-1NIUNIU×5KillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+2.0
65-1NIUNIU×5Attack errMilica Tomic+2.0
75-2NIUMILWKEKillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+1.2
85-3MILWKEMILWKEBlockedKatie Pahlblk Kayla Landerud, Ella Parker+1.9
96-3MILWKENIUServe errMilwaukee+1.5
106-4NIUMILWKEServe errNIU+1.4
117-4MILWKENIU×9KillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+1.6
128-4NIUNIU×9KillAva Grevengoedset Charlotte Gramzow+2.1
139-4NIUNIU×9KillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+1.9
1410-4NIUNIU×9KillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+1.7
1511-4NIUNIU×9KillAva Grevengoedset Ella Parker+1.5
1612-4NIUNIU×9KillAva Grevengoedset Charlotte Gramzow+1.2
1713-4NIUNIU×9KillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+0.9
1814-4NIUNIU×9Attack errBella Lipski+0.6
1915-4NIUNIU×9Attack errBella Lipski+0.4
2015-5NIUMILWKE×3KillBella Lipskiset Milica Tomic+0.2
2115-6MILWKEMILWKE×3AceMilwaukeeaced Charlotte Gramzow+0.3
2215-7MILWKEMILWKE×3AceMilwaukeeaced Charlotte Gramzow+0.5
2316-7MILWKENIUAttack errBella Lipski+0.5
2416-8NIUMILWKEServe errNIU+0.3
2517-8MILWKENIUKillNaomi Dowdset Kylie Schulze+0.5
2617-9NIUMILWKEKillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+0.3
2717-10MILWKEMILWKEAttack errAva Grevengoed+0.6
2818-10MILWKENIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+0.6
2918-11NIUMILWKE×3KillKami Stoverset Milica Tomic+0.3
3018-12MILWKEMILWKE×3AceMilwaukeeaced Charlotte Gramzow+0.7
3118-13MILWKEMILWKE×3AceMilwaukeeaced Ava Grevengoed+1.0
3219-13MILWKENIUAttack errElla Parker+1.1
3319-14NIUMILWKEKillKami Stoverset Milica Tomic+0.7
3419-15MILWKEMILWKEAttack errDelaney Steers+1.4
3520-15MILWKENIUBlockedKayla Landerudblk Autumn Flynn, Katie Pahl+1.5
3620-16NIUMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+0.9
3720-17MILWKEMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+1.8
3821-17MILWKENIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+2.0
3921-18NIUMILWKEKillKayla Landerudset Milica Tomic+1.2
4022-18MILWKENIUAttack errElla Schuetz+2.0
4122-19NIUMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Milica Tomic+1.1
4222-20MILWKEMILWKEKillJosie Noble+2.4
4323-20MILWKENIUKillRylea Alvinset Kylie Schulze+2.9
4423-21NIUMILWKEBlockedKatie Pahlblk Josie Noble, Ella Schuetz+1.5
4524-21MILWKENIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+2.9
4625-21NIUNIUBlockedKami Stoverblk Rylea Alvin, Delaney Steers+1.7
Set 3
11-0MILWKENIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+2.3
22-0NIUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+3.3
33-0NIUNIU×3Attack errJosie Noble+3.4
43-1NIUMILWKEKillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+2.2
54-1MILWKENIUServe errMilwaukee+2.5
65-1NIUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+3.4
75-2NIUMILWKEAttack errDelaney Steers+2.1
86-2MILWKENIUAttack errKayla Landerud+2.5
96-3NIUMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+2.2
107-3MILWKENIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+2.6
117-4NIUMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Emma Duffy+2.2
128-4MILWKENIUServe errMilwaukee+2.7
138-5NIUMILWKEKillAnnie Eschenbachset Emma Duffy+2.2
149-5MILWKENIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+2.7
159-6NIUMILWKE×6KillAnnie Eschenbachset Emma Duffy+2.3
169-7MILWKEMILWKE×6Attack errRylea Alvin+3.5
179-8MILWKEMILWKE×6Attack errRylea Alvin+3.7
189-9MILWKEMILWKE×6KillKami Stoverset Milica Tomic+3.8
199-10MILWKEMILWKE×6KillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+3.7
209-11MILWKEMILWKE×6AceMilwaukee+3.5
2110-11MILWKENIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+2.5
2211-11NIUNIU×3Attack errJosie Noble+3.9
2312-11NIUNIU×3AceNIUaced Ella Schuetz+4.3
2412-12NIUMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Milica Tomic+3.0
2513-12MILWKENIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+3.3
2614-12NIUNIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+4.7
2714-13NIUMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+3.1
2814-14MILWKEMILWKEKillKami Stoverset Liv Doerre+4.6
2915-14MILWKENIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+3.7
3016-14NIUNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+5.2
3116-15NIUMILWKEKillKami Stoverset Milica Tomic+3.4
3217-15MILWKENIU×3KillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+4.0
3318-15NIUNIU×3KillRylea Alvinset Kylie Schulze+5.2
3419-15NIUNIU×3KillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+4.6
3519-16NIUMILWKEAttack errNaomi Dowd+2.3
3619-17MILWKEMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+4.3
3720-17MILWKENIUBlockedElla Schuetzblk Naomi Dowd+4.3
3820-18NIUMILWKEKillBella Lipskiset Emma Duffy+3.1
3921-18MILWKENIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+4.5
4021-19NIUMILWKE×3KillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+3.1
4121-20MILWKEMILWKE×3Attack errKatie Pahl+5.9
4221-21MILWKEMILWKE×3AceMilwaukeeaced Delaney Steers+7.4
4322-21MILWKENIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+6.5
4423-21NIUNIU×3BlockedKami Stoverblk Katie Pahl, Autumn Flynn+9.0
4524-21NIUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+6.9
4624-22NIUMILWKEAttack errAutumn Flynn+1.9
4724-23MILWKEMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+6.0
4825-23MILWKENIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+10.7
Set 4
11-0NIUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Charlotte Gramzow+4.0
21-1NIUMILWKE×4Attack errRylea Alvin+2.8
31-2MILWKEMILWKE×4KillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+3.8
41-3MILWKEMILWKE×4Attack errRylea Alvin+3.6
51-4MILWKEMILWKE×4KillElla Schuetzset Liv Doerre+3.3
62-4MILWKENIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+2.3
72-5NIUMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+2.4
83-5MILWKENIUKillDelaney Steersset Ava Grevengoed+2.3
94-5NIUNIUBlockedKami Stoverblk Autumn Flynn, Delaney Steers+3.7
104-6NIUMILWKE×3Serve errNIU+2.8
114-7MILWKEMILWKE×3KillKami Stoverset Kati Goba+3.5
124-8MILWKEMILWKE×3KillJosie Noble+3.1
135-8MILWKENIUKillDelaney Steersset Kylie Schulze+2.0
145-9NIUMILWKEAttack errAutumn Flynn+2.2
156-9MILWKENIUKillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+2.1
166-10NIUMILWKEKillKami Stoverset Milica Tomic+2.3
177-10MILWKENIU×4KillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+2.1
188-10NIUNIU×4AceNIUaced Ella Parker+3.5
199-10NIUNIU×4Attack errAnnie Eschenbach+4.2
2010-10NIUNIU×4Attack errAnnie Eschenbach+4.8
2110-11NIUMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Emma Duffy+3.5
2211-11MILWKENIU×3Attack errAnnie Eschenbach+3.7
2312-11NIUNIU×3Attack errElla Parker+5.4
2413-11NIUNIU×3AceNIUaced Kati Goba+5.7
2513-12NIUMILWKE×3KillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+3.8
2613-13MILWKEMILWKE×3KillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+5.5
2713-14MILWKEMILWKE×3BlockedDelaney Steersblk Josie Noble, Annie Eschenbach+5.5
2814-14MILWKENIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+4.1
2915-14NIUNIU×3KillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+6.2
3016-14NIUNIU×3Attack errAnnie Eschenbach+6.5
3116-15NIUMILWKEServe errNIU+4.2
3217-15MILWKENIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+5.1
3317-16NIUMILWKEKillKami Stoverset Milica Tomic+4.4
3417-17MILWKEMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Milica Tomic+6.7
3518-17MILWKENIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+5.5
3618-18NIUMILWKEKillKami Stoverset Milica Tomic+5.2
3718-19MILWKEMILWKEKillBella Lipski+7.4
3819-19MILWKENIUKillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+5.5
3919-20NIUMILWKE×4Serve errNIU+5.8
4019-21MILWKEMILWKE×4BlockedAva Grevengoedblk Annie Eschenbach+7.5
4119-22MILWKEMILWKE×4KillElla Parkerset Kati Goba+5.9
4219-23MILWKEMILWKE×4Attack errRylea Alvin+3.7
4320-23MILWKENIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+1.3
4421-23NIUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+3.5
4521-24NIUMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Emma Duffy+4.4
4621-25MILWKEMILWKEBlockedKatie Pahlblk Bella Lipski, Ella Schuetz+3.4
Set 5
11-0NIUNIUAttack errAnnie Eschenbach+8.8
21-1NIUMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+6.2
32-1MILWKENIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+6.7
43-1NIUNIUKillDelaney Steers+9.6
53-2NIUMILWKE×3Serve errNIU+6.3
63-3MILWKEMILWKE×3KillElla Parkerset Kati Goba+9.2
73-4MILWKEMILWKE×3KillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+9.2
84-4MILWKENIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+6.9
94-5NIUMILWKEBlockedDelaney Steersblk Josie Noble, Kami Stover+7.0
105-5MILWKENIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+7.2
116-5NIUNIUBlockedKami Stoverblk Ava Grevengoed, Autumn Flynn+11.0
126-6NIUMILWKEServe errNIU+7.7
137-6MILWKENIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+8.6
147-7NIUMILWKEKillElla Parkerset Emma Duffy+8.1
157-8MILWKEMILWKEAttack errAva Grevengoed+11.5
168-8MILWKENIUKillAva Grevengoedset Kylie Schulze+8.6
179-8NIUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+13.4
189-9NIUMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Emma Duffy+9.3
1910-9MILWKENIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+10.8
2010-10NIUMILWKEBlockedDelaney Steersblk Josie Noble, Annie Eschenbach+10.2
2111-10MILWKENIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+12.0
2211-11NIUMILWKEKillElla Schuetzset Milica Tomic+11.2
2312-11MILWKENIUKillDelaney Steersset Viktoria Djukic+13.7
2412-12NIUMILWKEKillJosie Nobleset Milica Tomic+12.7
2513-12MILWKENIU×3KillDelaney Steersset Kylie Schulze+16.2
2614-12NIUNIU×3KillAva Grevengoedset Delaney Steers+22.5
2715-12NIUNIU×3BlockedElla Parkerblk Naomi Dowd+13.6

Score shown after each rally, NIU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).