FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayNEC

0:3

HomeHORIZON

Youngstown St. def. Mercyhurst 3–0

(25-17, 25-16, 25-13)

Set	1*	2	3	Sets
MERCYH	17	16	13	0
YSU	25	25	25	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

YSU above 50 · MERCYH below

Biggest swing: 0.7% to Mercyhurst — set 1, MERCYH 1-0 YSU. Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Alyssa Krause). YSU win probability 94% → 94%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MERCYH 5.5%94.5% YSU

Mercyhurst wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.6%

3-2

3.3%

Youngstown St. wins

3-0

54.0%

3-1

30.1%

3-2

10.4%

MERCYH break %: 38.0% vs this opp
YSU break %: 50.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Julia ShepherdKill+0.7%
Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 1 · MERCYH 1-0 YSU · MERCYH 6% → 6%
02
MERCYH serverAce+0.6%
Mercyhurst ace on Kylie Surratt
Set 2 · MERCYH 6-4 YSU · MERCYH 3% → 4%
03
Julia ShepherdAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Julia Shepherd
Set 1 · MERCYH 1-2 YSU · YSU 94% → 95%
04
YSU serverAce+0.6%
Youngstown St. ace on Roslyn Guerra
Set 2 · MERCYH 8-8 YSU · YSU 96% → 97%
05
Ava CarneyKill+0.6%
Kill by Ava Carney (set by Aliyah Angelici)
Set 2 · MERCYH 8-6 YSU · MERCYH 4% → 4%
06
MERCYH serverAce+0.6%
Mercyhurst ace on Team
Set 2 · MERCYH 5-4 YSU · MERCYH 3% → 3%
07
Ava CarneyKill+0.5%
Kill by Ava Carney (set by Aliyah Angelici)
Set 2 · MERCYH 7-5 YSU · MERCYH 4% → 4%
08
Madison MinerAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Madison Miner
Set 1 · MERCYH 1-3 YSU · YSU 95% → 95%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Mercyhurstaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
23Ava CarneyMB	3	6	0	8	.750	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
13Mia MattinglyMB	3	3	0	10	.300	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	4
8Madison MinerOH	3	2	4	16	-.125	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	2
16Sarah BarnumMB	3	0	0	2	.000	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
21Alyssa KrauseDS	3	0	0	0	–	13	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
26Anna LoganDS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	2	8	3	0	0	0
14Julia ShepherdOPP	3	8	3	15	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
1Roslyn GuerraOH	3	3	4	16	-.063	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	3
7Kalyani OliveOH	3	2	2	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
4Aliyah AngeliciS	3	0	0	0	–	8	2	1	2	0	0	0	2
11Kelsie Gaiter-DavisDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
22Sydney ForchtL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	3	4	0	0	0	0
12Trinity TatupuOH	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0
17Ellie KlevenS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	14	78	.128	24	5	10	32	14	2	1	46

Youngstown St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Ava StrattonOH	3	12	0	14	.857	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	13.5
16Kylie SurrattOH	3	7	1	20	.300	1	3	2	3	2	0	0	0	10
22Layne GrafficeOH	3	8	2	20	.300	0	0	1	7	1	0	2	1	9
21Korina BarberOH	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
6Isabelle HenryMB	3	4	1	7	.429	1	0	2	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
10Kameron BlizniakS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
2Ava PrinceS	3	0	0	0	–	10	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	6
1Brie HabeebDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	5	1	12	1	0	0	0	5
14Wrigley TakatsMB	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
7Ashlee GnauL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
20Hayden RodriguezS	1	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Journey NicolaDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Juliana RiveraDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	7	80	.375	35	14	10	32	5	1	8	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 MERCYH · YSU 7

Set 1*

17-25

Longest run 2 MERCYHYSU 5

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 MERCYHYSU 4

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 2 MERCYHYSU 7

Bars above the line = Youngstown St. leads, below = Mercyhurst leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Mercyhurst

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%4/12	0%0/4
2	57%4/7	20%1/5
3	67%4/6	20%1/5
4	44%4/9	43%3/7
5	33%3/9	20%1/5
6	50%3/6	25%1/4
All	45%22/49	23%7/30

Youngstown St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%4/4	40%2/5
2	67%4/6	69%9/13
3	67%4/6	33%2/6
4	67%4/6	43%3/7
5	100%4/4	33%2/6
6	75%3/4	75%9/12
All	77%23/30	55%27/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

121 rallies

Rally log

#	MERCYH-YSU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.7
2	1-1	MERCYH	YSU×5	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.5
3	1-2	YSU	YSU×5	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.6
4	1-3	YSU	YSU×5	Attack err	Madison Miner		+0.5
5	1-4	YSU	YSU×5	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Brie Habeeb	+0.5
6	1-5	YSU	YSU×5	Ace	YSU server	aced Team	+0.4
7	2-5	YSU	MERCYH	Serve err	YSU server		+0.3
8	2-6	MERCYH	YSU	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.3
9	3-6	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
10	3-7	MERCYH	YSU×5	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.3
11	3-8	YSU	YSU×5	Attack err	Kalyani Olive		+0.3
12	3-9	YSU	YSU×5	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+0.2
13	3-10	YSU	YSU×5	Ace	YSU server	aced Madison Miner	+0.2
14	3-11	YSU	YSU×5	Ace	YSU server	aced Team	+0.1
15	4-11	YSU	MERCYH	Serve err	YSU server		+0.1
16	4-12	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Korina Barber	set Ava Prince	+0.1
17	4-13	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra	blk Korina Barber, Wrigley Takats	+0.1
18	5-13	YSU	MERCYH	Attack err	Korina Barber		+0.0
19	5-14	MERCYH	YSU	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.1
20	6-14	YSU	MERCYH	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
21	7-14	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Wrigley Takats		+0.1
22	7-15	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Wrigley Takats	set Ava Prince	+0.1
23	7-16	YSU	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton		+0.1
24	8-16	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.0
25	8-17	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.0
26	9-17	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.0
27	10-17	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Kylie Surratt	+0.1
28	10-18	MERCYH	YSU	Attack err	Madison Miner	blk Ava Stratton	+0.1
29	11-18	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+0.0
30	12-18	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Layne Graffice		+0.1
31	12-19	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Korina Barber	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.1
32	12-20	YSU	YSU	Ace	YSU server	aced Madison Miner	+0.1
33	13-20	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.0
34	14-20	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Korina Barber		+0.1
35	14-21	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+0.1
36	15-21	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.1
37	15-22	MERCYH	YSU	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.1
38	16-22	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Sydney Forcht	+0.0
39	16-23	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.1
40	16-24	YSU	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.0
41	17-24	YSU	MERCYH	Attack err	Kylie Surratt		+0.0
42	17-25	MERCYH	YSU	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Anna Logan		+0.4
2	1-1	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
3	1-2	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.3
4	2-2	YSU	MERCYH	Attack err	Isabelle Henry		+0.4
5	3-2	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.5
6	3-3	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.4
7	3-4	YSU	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Isabelle Henry	+0.4
8	4-4	YSU	MERCYH×3	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
9	5-4	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Team	+0.6
10	6-4	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Kylie Surratt	+0.6
11	6-5	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.4
12	7-5	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.5
13	7-6	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Kylie Surratt	+0.5
14	8-6	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.6
15	8-7	MERCYH	YSU×3	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Ava Prince	+0.5
16	8-8	YSU	YSU×3	Ace	YSU server	aced Roslyn Guerra	+0.6
17	8-9	YSU	YSU×3	Ace	YSU server	aced Roslyn Guerra	+0.5
18	9-9	YSU	MERCYH	Serve err	YSU server		+0.5
19	9-10	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.4
20	9-11	YSU	YSU	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.5
21	10-11	YSU	MERCYH	Serve err	YSU server		+0.4
22	10-12	MERCYH	YSU×4	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.4
23	10-13	YSU	YSU×4	Ace	YSU server	aced Anna Logan	+0.4
24	10-14	YSU	YSU×4	Kill	Ava Stratton		+0.3
25	10-15	YSU	YSU×4	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.2
26	11-15	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
27	11-16	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.2
28	11-17	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Julia Shepherd	blk Korina Barber, Layne Graffice	+0.2
29	12-17	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
30	12-18	MERCYH	YSU×4	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.1
31	12-19	YSU	YSU×4	Ace	YSU server	aced Anna Logan	+0.1
32	12-20	YSU	YSU×4	Ace	YSU server	aced Madison Miner	+0.0
33	12-21	YSU	YSU×4	Ace	YSU server	aced Madison Miner	+0.0
34	13-21	YSU	MERCYH	Serve err	YSU server		+0.0
35	14-21	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Brie Habeeb	+0.0
36	14-22	MERCYH	YSU	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.0
37	15-22	YSU	MERCYH	Serve err	YSU server		+0.0
38	15-23	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Korina Barber	set Ava Prince	+0.0
39	15-24	YSU	YSU	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.0
40	16-24	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.0
41	16-25	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Wrigley Takats	set Ava Prince	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MERCYH	YSU×5	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.1
2	0-2	YSU	YSU×5	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.2
3	0-3	YSU	YSU×5	Attack err	Madison Miner	blk Isabelle Henry, Ava Stratton	+0.1
4	0-4	YSU	YSU×5	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.1
5	0-5	YSU	YSU×5	Attack err	Madison Miner		+0.1
6	1-5	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
7	2-5	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Layne Graffice	blk Julia Shepherd, Ava Carney	+0.1
8	2-6	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Kameron Blizniak	+0.1
9	3-6	YSU	MERCYH	Serve err	YSU server		+0.1
10	3-7	MERCYH	YSU	Attack err	Kalyani Olive	blk Layne Graffice, Korina Barber	+0.1
11	4-7	YSU	MERCYH	Serve err	YSU server		+0.1
12	5-7	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.2
13	5-8	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Brie Habeeb	+0.1
14	6-8	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.1
15	6-9	MERCYH	YSU×7	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.1
16	6-10	YSU	YSU×7	Ace	YSU server	aced Trinity Tatupu	+0.1
17	6-11	YSU	YSU×7	Ace	YSU server	aced Roslyn Guerra	+0.1
18	6-12	YSU	YSU×7	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Ava Prince	+0.1
19	6-13	YSU	YSU×7	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.1
20	6-14	YSU	YSU×7	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.0
21	6-15	YSU	YSU×7	Ace	YSU server	aced Team	+0.0
22	7-15	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.0
23	8-15	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	MERCYH server	aced Layne Graffice	+0.0
24	8-16	MERCYH	YSU	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.0
25	9-16	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.0
26	9-17	MERCYH	YSU×3	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.0
27	9-18	YSU	YSU×3	Kill	Isabelle Henry	set Hayden Rodriguez	+0.0
28	9-19	YSU	YSU×3	Ace	YSU server	aced Anna Logan	+0.0
29	10-19	YSU	MERCYH	Serve err	YSU server		+0.0
30	10-20	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Ava Stratton	set Hayden Rodriguez	+0.0
31	11-20	YSU	MERCYH	Serve err	YSU server		+0.0
32	11-21	MERCYH	YSU	Kill	Korina Barber	set Hayden Rodriguez	+0.0
33	12-21	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Ellie Kleven	+0.0
34	12-22	MERCYH	YSU×3	Kill	Layne Graffice	set Brie Habeeb	+0.0
35	12-23	YSU	YSU×3	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Hayden Rodriguez	+0.0
36	12-24	YSU	YSU×3	Kill	Kylie Surratt	set Hayden Rodriguez	+0.0
37	13-24	YSU	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Ellie Kleven	+0.0
38	13-25	MERCYH	YSU	Serve err	MERCYH server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Mercyhurst first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.