FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwaySOCON

0:3

HomeSUN-BELT

Troy def. Mercer 3–0

(25-13, 25-21, 25-9)

Set	1*	2*	3*	Sets
MERCER	13	21	9	0
TROY	25	25	25	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TROY above 50 · MERCER below

Biggest swing: 1.3% to Mercer — set 2, MERCER 16-16 TROY. Attack error by Isabella Ruether. TROY win probability 95% → 94%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MERCER 9.5%90.5% TROY

Mercer wins

3-0

1.2%

3-1

2.9%

3-2

5.4%

Troy wins

3-0

45.4%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

13.6%

MERCER break %: 37.7% vs this opp
TROY break %: 47.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Isabella RuetherAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Isabella Ruether
Set 2 · MERCER 16-16 TROY · MERCER 5% → 6%
02
Lara MattaKill+1.3%
Kill by Lara Matta (set by Sammi Bergjans)
Set 1 · MERCER 4-3 TROY · MERCER 10% → 11%
03
TROY serverAce+1.1%
Troy ace on Taylor Timko
Set 2 · MERCER 16-18 TROY · TROY 95% → 96%
04
TROY serverAce+1.1%
Troy ace on Aubri Martin
Set 1 · MERCER 4-5 TROY · TROY 90% → 91%
05
MERCER serverService error+1.0%
Mercer service error
Set 2 · MERCER 12-12 TROY · MERCER 4% → 5%
06
Haley NashBad set+1.0%
Bad set by Haley Nash
Set 2 · MERCER 9-8 TROY · MERCER 5% → 6%
07
Ipek UlukutluAttack error+1.0%
Attack error by Ipek Ulukutlu
Set 1 · MERCER 5-7 TROY · TROY 91% → 92%
08
Olivia KwiatkowskiAttack error+1.0%
Attack error by Olivia Kwiatkowski
Set 2 · MERCER 15-16 TROY · MERCER 4% → 5%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Merceraway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Joselynn SanjurjoMB	3	4	1	13	.231	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2.5	6.5
20Lara MattaOH	3	6	3	19	.158	0	0	1	10	1	0	0	0	6
7Avery WilksMB	3	2	3	12	-.083	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	3
8Sammi BergjansS	3	0	1	4	-.250	11	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Sarah FragerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0
15Brooklyn PalmerOH	2	0	1	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Aubri MartinL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	9	4	0	0	0	1
6Brooke KaouiL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
19Taylor TimkoOH	2	0	2	10	-.200	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
10Ipek UlukutluOH	2	0	2	7	-.286	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
14Jasmine CaltonMB	1	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
12Bella PonsMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
11Emily MatiasOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Lexie StotenburS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		15	14	76	.013	14	2	6	29	10	2	2	3	43

Troyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Kalina CalvilloOH	3	11	0	18	.611	0	5	3	4	0	1	1	1.5	17.5
9Ashlynn AxtellMB	3	9	0	14	.643	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	10.5
2Isabella RuetherOH	3	8	1	16	.438	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
6Olivia KwiatkowskiOH	3	5	4	12	.083	0	2	3	6	1	1	0	1	8
20Brooke ForkumOH	3	6	0	15	.400	1	0	3	7	0	0	0	0	6
33Madison MarxS	3	0	0	0	–	25	2	4	5	0	0	0	0	2
14Sophie OcampoOH	3	4	3	11	.091	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	6
24Josephine HensleyS	3	0	0	0	–	11	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	1
11Haley NashL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	14	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	8	86	.407	40	10	17	42	2	4	6	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 MERCER · TROY 10

Set 1*

13-25

Longest run 2 MERCERTROY 6

Set 2*

21-25

Longest run 3 MERCERTROY 4

Set 3*

9-25

Longest run 2 MERCERTROY 10

Bars above the line = Troy leads, below = Mercer leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Mercer

No clean sets to split.

Troy

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

118 rallies

Rally log

#	MERCER-TROY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MERCER	TROY	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.7
2	1-1	TROY	MERCER	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.8
3	1-2	MERCER	TROY	Attack err	Sammi Bergjans	blk Ashlynn Axtell	+0.7
4	2-2	TROY	MERCER	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.8
5	2-3	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.7
6	3-3	TROY	MERCER	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.8
7	4-3	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.3
8	4-4	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether		+0.9
9	4-5	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Aubri Martin	+1.1
10	5-5	TROY	MERCER	Serve err	TROY server		+0.9
11	5-6	MERCER	TROY×3	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.8
12	5-7	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Ipek Ulukutlu		+1.0
13	5-8	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer	blk Sophie Ocampo, Kalina Calvillo	+0.9
14	6-8	TROY	MERCER	Serve err	TROY server		+0.6
15	6-9	MERCER	TROY×5	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.6
16	6-10	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.7
17	6-11	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+0.6
18	6-12	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.4
19	6-13	TROY	TROY×5	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.3
20	7-13	TROY	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
21	8-13	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+0.3
22	8-14	MERCER	TROY×3	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Haley Nash	+0.3
23	8-15	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.3
24	8-16	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.2
25	9-16	TROY	MERCER	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
26	10-16	MERCER	MERCER	Ace	MERCER server	aced Olivia Kwiatkowski	+0.2
27	10-17	MERCER	TROY×6	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.2
28	10-18	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.2
29	10-19	TROY	TROY×6	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+0.1
30	10-20	TROY	TROY×6	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
31	10-21	TROY	TROY×6	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
32	10-22	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
33	11-22	TROY	MERCER	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+0.0
34	11-23	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.0
35	11-24	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Aubri Martin	+0.0
36	12-24	TROY	MERCER	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
37	13-24	MERCER	MERCER	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.0
38	13-25	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	TROY	MERCER	Serve err	TROY server		+0.6
2	1-1	MERCER	TROY	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.5
3	2-1	TROY	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Brooke Kaoui	+0.6
4	2-2	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.5
5	3-2	TROY	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.6
6	3-3	MERCER	TROY×4	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Madison Marx	+0.6
7	3-4	TROY	TROY×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.7
8	3-5	TROY	TROY×4	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.6
9	3-6	TROY	TROY×4	Attack err	Avery Wilks	blk Sophie Ocampo, Isabella Ruether	+0.5
10	4-6	TROY	MERCER×3	Serve err	TROY server		+0.4
11	5-6	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Avery Wilks	blk Joselynn Sanjurjo	+0.7
12	6-6	MERCER	MERCER×3	Ace	MERCER server	aced Team	+0.8
13	6-7	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo		+0.6
14	7-7	TROY	MERCER	Attack err	Sophie Ocampo		+0.6
15	7-8	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Josephine Hensley	+0.6
16	8-8	TROY	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.7
17	9-8	MERCER	MERCER	Bad set	Haley Nash		+1.0
18	9-9	MERCER	TROY×3	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.7
19	9-10	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell		+0.9
20	9-11	TROY	TROY×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.8
21	10-11	TROY	MERCER	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.6
22	10-12	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.6
23	11-12	TROY	MERCER	Serve err	TROY server		+0.6
24	12-12	MERCER	MERCER	Serve err	MERCER server		+1.0
25	12-13	MERCER	TROY×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.7
26	12-14	TROY	TROY×3	Ace	TROY server	aced Team	+0.9
27	12-15	TROY	TROY×3	Ace	TROY server	aced Aubri Martin	+0.8
28	13-15	TROY	MERCER	Serve err	TROY server		+0.5
29	13-16	MERCER	TROY	Bad set	Sammi Bergjans		+0.6
30	14-16	TROY	MERCER×3	Bad set	Sammi Bergjans		+0.5
31	15-16	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Olivia Kwiatkowski		+1.0
32	16-16	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Isabella Ruether		+1.3
33	16-17	MERCER	TROY×3	Attack err	Taylor Timko		+0.9
34	16-18	TROY	TROY×3	Ace	TROY server	aced Taylor Timko	+1.1
35	16-19	TROY	TROY×3	Attack err	Ipek Ulukutlu		+0.9
36	17-19	TROY	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.6
37	17-20	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Sophie Ocampo	set Josephine Hensley	+0.7
38	18-20	TROY	MERCER	Serve err	TROY server		+0.6
39	18-21	MERCER	TROY	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.7
40	18-22	TROY	TROY	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo	blk Kalina Calvillo	+0.6
41	19-22	TROY	MERCER	Serve err	TROY server		+0.3
42	19-23	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum		+0.4
43	20-23	TROY	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks		+0.2
44	20-24	MERCER	TROY	Attack err	Avery Wilks		+0.4
45	21-24	TROY	MERCER	Serve err	TROY server		+0.1
46	21-25	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	MERCER	TROY×6	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell		+0.2
2	0-2	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.3
3	0-3	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.2
4	0-4	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.2
5	0-5	TROY	TROY×6	Attack err	Brooke Kaoui		+0.2
6	0-6	TROY	TROY×6	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Madison Marx	+0.1
7	1-6	TROY	MERCER	Attack err	Brooke Forkum		+0.1
8	1-7	MERCER	TROY×10	Kill	Ashlynn Axtell	set Madison Marx	+0.1
9	1-8	TROY	TROY×10	Ace	TROY server	aced Aubri Martin	+0.1
10	1-9	TROY	TROY×10	Attack err	Lara Matta		+0.1
11	1-10	TROY	TROY×10	Attack err	Avery Wilks		+0.0
12	1-11	TROY	TROY×10	Ace	TROY server	aced Brooke Kaoui	+0.0
13	1-12	TROY	TROY×10	Kill	Kalina Calvillo	set Madison Marx	+0.0
14	1-13	TROY	TROY×10	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Brooke Forkum	+0.0
15	1-14	TROY	TROY×10	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
16	1-15	TROY	TROY×10	Attack err	Avery Wilks	blk Olivia Kwiatkowski	+0.0
17	1-16	TROY	TROY×10	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
18	2-16	TROY	MERCER	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.0
19	3-16	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Jasmine Calton	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.0
20	3-17	MERCER	TROY	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
21	4-17	TROY	MERCER	Kill	Jasmine Calton	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.0
22	4-18	MERCER	TROY×3	Serve err	MERCER server		+0.0
23	4-19	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Isabella Ruether	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
24	4-20	TROY	TROY×3	Kill	Sophie Ocampo		+0.0
25	5-20	TROY	MERCER	Attack err	Sophie Ocampo		+0.0
26	5-21	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Brooke Forkum	set Josephine Hensley	+0.0
27	6-21	TROY	MERCER	Attack err	Jasmine Calton	blk Joselynn Sanjurjo, Taylor Timko	+0.0
28	6-22	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Kalina Calvillo		+0.0
29	6-23	TROY	TROY	Ace	TROY server	aced Lara Matta	+0.0
30	7-23	TROY	MERCER	Serve err	TROY server		+0.0
31	7-24	MERCER	TROY	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
32	8-24	TROY	MERCER	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
33	9-24	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Lexie Stotenbur	+0.0
34	9-25	MERCER	TROY	Kill	Olivia Kwiatkowski	set Madison Marx	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Mercer first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.