Final · 5 setsSat, Sep 26, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Louisiana def. Troy 3–2

Louisiana won at Troy 3-2 (25-22, 25-23, 22-25, 15-25, 15-8) on Sat, Sep 26, 2026. Louisiana's Marlee Ervin led with 14 kills, and Kennedy Gustafson added 20 digs.

Data through · final Sep 26

Set12345Sets
LA25252215153
TROY2223252582

Win probability

Troy above 50 · Louisiana below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+9.6% LArally 205 · set 5

Biggest swing: 9.6% to Louisiana — set 5, LA 3-1 TROY. Attack error by Brooke Forkum. TROY win probability 47% → 37%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

LA 39.5%60.5% TROY

Louisiana wins

3-0
8.6%
3-1
14.4%
3-2
16.5%

Troy wins

3-0
17.4%
3-1
23.1%
3-2
19.9%
LA break %
39.8% vs this opp
TROY break %
41.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Brooke ForkumAttack error+9.6%

    Attack error by Brooke Forkum

    Set 5 · LA 3-1 TROY · LA 53% → 63%

  2. 02
    Grace SweeneyKill+9.2%

    Kill by Grace Sweeney (set by Ryleigh Garis)

    Set 5 · LA 4-1 TROY · LA 63% → 72%

  3. 03
    LouisianaAce+8.4%

    Louisiana ace on Olivia Kwiatkowski

    Set 5 · LA 6-2 TROY · LA 73% → 82%

  4. 04

    Kill by Jazmine Gaston (set by Ryleigh Garis)

    Set 2 · LA 25-23 TROY · LA 75% → 83%

  5. 05

    Kalina Calvillo stuffed by Sarah Schnell & Gigi Smith

    Set 5 · LA 7-2 TROY · LA 82% → 89%

  6. 06
    Ashlynn AxtellAttack error+6.6%

    Attack error by Ashlynn Axtell

    Set 5 · LA 5-2 TROY · LA 67% → 73%

  7. 07
    TroyService error+6.5%

    Troy service error

    Set 5 · LA 2-1 TROY · LA 47% → 53%

  8. 08
    Marlee ErvinKill+6.3%

    Kill by Marlee Ervin (set by Kennedy Gustafson)

    Set 5 · LA 1-0 TROY · LA 47% → 53%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513652.135002111031.514.5
514241.29300140010.514.5
59115.533000000115.514.5
56520.050000300639
5011-1.0002511900001
45213.23111000010.56.5
513830.16700010052.515.5
5000–21111000001
5000–1141040001
5001.0008012030000
2000–00000031.51.5
Team totals6025173.20256410681103015102
Troyhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
512739.12804110031.517.5
513734.1760003002114
59732.063133184031.513.5
59120.4000001006312
54421.00002030031.57.5
51011.0002603800001
59014.64300000153.512.5
5000–2132200001
5000–2300800000
4000–000000000
4000–101300000
3000–010400001
Team totals5726161.19353111171412212103

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Louisiana vs Troy

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 LA · TROY 6

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 5 LATROY 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 LATROY 6

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 LATROY 3

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 3 LATROY 4

Set 5

15-8

Longest run 4 LATROY 2

Bars above the line = Troy leads, below = Louisiana leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Louisiana

SlotSideout %Break %
1
80%8/10
54%7/13
2
44%7/16
36%4/11
3
50%5/10
38%3/8
4
63%5/8
64%9/14
5
83%5/6
55%6/11
6
100%5/5
17%1/6
All
64%35/55
48%30/63

Troy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
22%2/9
2
56%5/9
33%4/12
3
56%5/9
55%6/11
4
38%5/13
55%6/11
5
56%5/9
29%2/7
6
56%5/9
0%0/5
All
52%33/63
36%20/55

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

205 rallies

#LA-TROYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1TROYTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+2.4
21-1TROYLAKillMarlee Ervinset Ryleigh Garis+1.7
32-1LALAAceLouisianaaced Olivia Kwiatkowski+2.6
42-2LATROYServe errLouisiana+1.7
52-3TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Olivia Kwiatkowski+2.6
63-3TROYLAServe errTroy+1.8
73-4LATROYBlockedJazmine Gastonblk Kalina Calvillo, Ashlynn Axtell+1.8
84-4TROYLAKillLindsey Henryset Ryleigh Garis+1.8
94-5LATROYServe errLouisiana+1.8
104-6TROYTROYBlockedLindsey Henryblk Sophie Ocampo+2.6
115-6TROYLAKillSarah Schnellset Rhyan Miciotto+1.7
125-7LATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.8
136-7TROYLAKillSarah Schnellset Rhyan Miciotto+1.8
146-8LATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.9
157-8TROYLAKillSarah Schnellset Rhyan Miciotto+1.8
167-9LATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.9
178-9TROYLAKillEmily Williamsset Ryleigh Garis+1.9
189-9LALAKillEmily Williamsset Ryleigh Garis+3.0
199-10LATROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.1
209-11TROYTROY×3AceTroyaced Kennedy Gustafson+3.0
219-12TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtell+2.7
2210-12TROYLABlockedKalina Calvilloblk Jazmine Gaston, Emily Williams+1.7
2311-12LALAKillGrace Sweeneyset Ryleigh Garis+2.9
2411-13LATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.2
2511-14TROYTROYAttack errJazmine Gaston+2.9
2612-14TROYLAKillGrace Sweeneyset Ryleigh Garis+1.8
2713-14LALAAttack errKalina Calvillo+3.1
2813-15LATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+2.4
2913-16TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Haley Nash+3.1
3014-16TROYLA×3KillGrace Sweeneyset Rhyan Miciotto+1.8
3115-16LALA×3KillSarah Schnellset Kennedy Gustafson+3.3
3216-16LALA×3KillSarah Schnellset Rhyan Miciotto+3.9
3316-17LATROYServe errLouisiana+2.9
3417-17TROYLAKillLindsey Henryset Rhyan Miciotto+2.9
3518-17LALABlockedIsa Ruetherblk Emily Williams, Sarah Schnell+4.6
3618-18LATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+3.1
3719-18TROYLA×5Serve errTroy+3.5
3820-18LALA×5KillMarlee Ervinset Ryleigh Garis+5.0
3921-18LALA×5KillMarlee Ervinset Ryleigh Garis+4.4
4022-18LALA×5KillEmily Williamsset Ryleigh Garis+3.2
4123-18LALA×5Attack errIsa Ruether+1.8
4223-19LATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+0.5
4323-20TROYTROYAceTroyaced Grace Sweeney+1.3
4424-20TROYLAKillJazmine Gastonset Ryleigh Garis+1.9
4524-21LATROYBlockedKennedy Gustafsonblk Ashlynn Axtell, Grace Sweeney+0.5
4624-22TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.8
4725-22TROYLAServe errTroy+3.1
Set 2
11-0LALAKillMarlee Ervinset Kennedy Gustafson+2.9
21-1LATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.9
32-1TROYLAKillJazmine Gastonset Ryleigh Garis+2.0
43-1LALAKillGrace Sweeneyset Kennedy Gustafson+3.0
53-2LATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.9
64-2TROYLAKillSarah Schnellset Rhyan Miciotto+2.1
74-3LATROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.0
84-4TROYTROY×3BlockedSarah Schnellblk Olivia Kwiatkowski, Ashlynn Axtell+3.0
94-5TROYTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Lindsey Henry+3.0
105-5TROYLA×3KillSarah Schnellset Rhyan Miciotto+2.1
116-5LALA×3KillMarlee Ervin+3.2
127-5LALA×3BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Sarah Schnell, Lindsey Henry+3.3
137-6LATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+2.1
147-7TROYTROYAceTroyaced Kennedy Gustafson+3.2
158-7TROYLA×4KillMarlee Ervinset Kennedy Gustafson+2.3
169-7LALA×4Attack errIsa Ruether+3.5
1710-7LALA×4Attack errBrooke Forkum+3.4
1811-7LALA×4KillEmily Williamsset Rhyan Miciotto+3.1
1911-8LATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.8
2012-8TROYLAKillMarlee Ervinset Rhyan Miciotto+2.2
2112-9LATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.8
2213-9TROYLA×3KillJazmine Gastonset Ryleigh Garis+2.2
2314-9LALA×3BlockedKalina Calvilloblk Jazmine Gaston, Emily Williams+2.8
2415-9LALA×3Attack errBrooke Forkum+2.2
2515-10LATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.1
2616-10TROYLABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Jazmine Gaston, Emily Williams+1.5
2716-11LATROY×6KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Kayla Baetzel+1.0
2816-12TROYTROY×6KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.1
2916-13TROYTROY×6Attack errJazmine Gaston+2.7
3016-14TROYTROY×6AceTroy+3.4
3116-15TROYTROY×6AceTroyaced Sophia Armstrong+4.0
3216-16TROYTROY×6AceTroyaced Sophia Armstrong+4.5
3317-16TROYLAServe errTroy+3.4
3417-17LATROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+3.3
3517-18TROYTROY×3KillMadison Marx+5.0
3617-19TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+4.8
3718-19TROYLA×4Serve errTroy+2.9
3819-19LALA×4KillSarah Schnellset Lindsey Henry+5.4
3920-19LALA×4KillMarlee Ervinset Rhyan Miciotto+6.1
4021-19LALA×4KillSarah Schnellset Rhyan Miciotto+6.1
4121-20LATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+3.4
4222-20TROYLAServe errTroy+4.7
4322-21LATROYAttack errSarah Schnellset Grace Sweeney+3.6
4423-21TROYLAAttack errOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+5.3
4523-22LATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+3.6
4624-22TROYLAAttack errKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+6.2
4724-23LATROYBlockedGrace Sweeneyblk Brooke Forkum, Sophie Ocampo+3.3
4825-23TROYLAKillJazmine Gastonset Ryleigh Garis+8.2
Set 3
10-1TROYTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+2.1
20-2TROY
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.0
30-3TROYTROY×3KillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+1.9
41-3TROYLAKillEmily Williams+1.2
51-4LATROYServe errLouisiana+1.3
62-4TROYLAKillGrace Sweeneyset Ryleigh Garis+1.3
72-5LATROYAttack errGrace Sweeneyset Ryleigh Garis+1.4
83-5TROYLAKillLindsey Henryset Ryleigh Garis+1.3
93-6LATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.4
103-7TROYTROYAttack errSarah Schnell+1.8
114-7TROYLAKillSarah Schnellset Rhyan Miciotto+1.1
124-8LATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.3
135-8TROYLAKillSarah Schnellset Rhyan Miciotto+1.1
146-8LALAAceLouisianaaced Olivia Kwiatkowski+1.9
156-9LATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.5
167-9TROYLA×3KillEmily Williamsset Rhyan Miciotto+1.4
178-9LALA×3AceLouisianaaced Olivia Kwiatkowski+2.3
189-9LALA×3BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Jazmine Gaston, Emily Williams+2.6
199-10LATROYAttack errMarlee Ervinset Kennedy Gustafson+1.8
2010-10TROYLAKillEmily Williamsset Ryleigh Garis+1.8
2111-10LALABlockedIsa Ruetherblk Emily Williams, Grace Sweeney+2.8
2211-11LATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.9
2312-11TROYLAServe errTroy+2.0
2412-12LATROYServe errLouisiana+2.0
2513-12TROYLAKillLindsey Henryset Ryleigh Garis+2.1
2613-13LATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+2.0
27–2814-14LA · TROY
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.9
2914-15LATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.2
3015-15TROYLAKillMarlee Ervinset Rhyan Miciotto+2.2
3115-16LATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.3
3215-17TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Haley Nash+3.3
3316-17TROYLAServe errTroy+2.0
3417-17LALABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Emily Williams, Marlee Ervin+3.6
3517-18LATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+2.6
3618-18TROYLAServe errTroy+2.6
3718-19LATROYServe errLouisiana+2.8
3819-19TROYLABlockedBrooke Forkumblk Grace Sweeney, Emily Williams+2.8
3919-20LATROY×3KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+3.1
4019-21TROYTROY×3Attack errGrace Sweeney+4.2
4119-22TROYTROY×3BlockedGrace Sweeneyblk Brooke Forkum, Sophie Ocampo+3.4
4220-22TROYLAKillJazmine Gastonset Ryleigh Garis+1.5
4321-22LALAKillSarah Schnellset Rhyan Miciotto+3.6
4421-23LATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+3.6
4521-24TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+3.5
4622-24TROYLAKillGrace Sweeneyset Rhyan Miciotto+0.9
4722-25LATROYAttack errSarah Schnellset Grace Sweeney+2.1
Set 4
11-0LALA×3KillMarlee Ervinset Kennedy Gustafson+3.8
22-0LALA×3Attack errIsa Ruether+3.9
33-0LA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.8
43-1LATROY×3BlockedJazmine Gastonblk Ashlynn Axtell, Isa Ruether+2.4
53-2TROYTROY×3AceTroyaced Sophia Armstrong+3.8
63-3TROYTROY×3KillBrooke Forkum+3.9
74-3TROYLAKillEmily Williamsset Ryleigh Garis+2.8
84-4LATROYKillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+2.7
95-4TROYLAKillGrace Sweeney+2.9
105-5LATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.8
116-5TROYLAKillGrace Sweeneyset Sophia Armstrong+3.0
126-6LATROY×4KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.9
136-7TROYTROY×4Attack errMarlee Ervin+4.2
146-8TROYTROY×4AceTroy+4.1
156-9TROYTROY×4AceTroy+3.8
167-9TROYLAKillMarlee Ervin+2.4
177-10LATROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.7
187-11TROYTROY×3KillSophie Ocampo+3.4
197-12TROY
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.9
208-12TROYLAKillSarah Schnellset Kennedy Gustafson+1.6
219-12LALAKillMarlee Ervinset Josephine Hensley+3.0
229-13LATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.4
239-14TROYTROYBlockedEmily Williamsblk Ashlynn Axtell, Olivia Kwiatkowski+2.9
2410-14TROYLABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Jazmine Gaston, Emily Williams+1.6
2511-14LALABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Emily Williams, Grace Sweeney+3.0
2611-15LATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.5
2711-16TROYTROYBlockedJazmine Gastonblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+2.9
2812-16TROYLAKillEmily Williamsset Ryleigh Garis+1.5
2912-17LATROY×3KillAshlynn Axtell+2.0
3012-18TROYTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+2.0
3112-19TROYTROY×3AceTroyaced Sophia Armstrong+1.3
3213-19TROYLAKillJazmine Gastonset Ryleigh Garis+0.5
3313-20LATROY×4KillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+0.8
3413-21TROYTROY×4Attack errSarah Schnell+0.6
3513-22TROYTROY×4BlockedLindsey Henryblk Sophie Ocampo, Kalina Calvillo+0.2
3613-23TROYTROY×4Attack errGrace Sweeney+0.1
3714-23TROYLAKillGrace Sweeneyset Kennedy Gustafson·
3814-24LATROYBlockedSarah Schnellblk Sophie Ocampo, Kalina Calvillo·
3915-24TROYLAKillMarlee Ervinset Rhyan Miciotto·
4015-25LATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.4
Set 5
11-0TROYLAKillMarlee Ervinset Kennedy Gustafson+6.3
21-1LATROYServe errLouisiana+6.1
32-1TROYLA×3Serve errTroy+6.5
43-1LALA×3Attack errBrooke Forkum+9.6
54-1LALA×3KillGrace Sweeneyset Ryleigh Garis+9.2
64-2LATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+5.4
75-2TROYLA×4Attack errAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+6.6
86-2LALA×4AceLouisianaaced Olivia Kwiatkowski+8.4
97-2LALA×4BlockedKalina Calvilloblk Sarah Schnell, Gigi Smith+6.8
108-2LALA×4Attack errKalina Calvillo+5.0
118-3LATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.2
129-3TROYLAKillGrace Sweeneyset Rhyan Miciotto+3.3
1310-3LALABlockedKalina Calvilloblk Sarah Schnell, Gigi Smith+2.9
1410-4LATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.0
1510-5TROYTROYAttack errSarah Schnell+2.4
1611-5TROYLABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Sarah Schnell, Gigi Smith+2.8
1711-6LATROYBlockedSarah Schnellblk Olivia Kwiatkowski, Sophie Ocampo+1.3
1812-6TROYLAKillMarlee Ervinset Rhyan Miciotto+2.4
1912-7LATROYServe errLouisiana+1.0
2013-7TROYLABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Jazmine Gaston, Emily Williams+1.9
2114-7LALAKillGrace Sweeneyset Ryleigh Garis+0.9
2214-8LATROYServe errLouisiana+0.1
2315-8TROYLAKillGrace Sweeneyset Ryleigh Garis+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Louisiana first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).