Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 24, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Youngstown St. def. NIU 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Youngstown St. 77.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 24, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Youngstown St. beat visiting NIU 3-1 (23-25, 25-23, 25-17, 25-21) on Sat, Oct 24, 2026. Youngstown St.'s Kylie Surratt led with 13 kills, and Abbie Householder added 13 digs.

Data through · final Oct 24

Set1234Sets
NIU252317211
YSU232525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Wrigley Takats served 4 aces, and Youngstown St. needed every one.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Youngstown St.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Youngstown St. 78% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · NIU 22–23 Youngstown St.

    3 straight NIU points turned a 22–23 deficit into a 25–23 lead.

    Youngstown St. 80% → 58%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · NIU 20–18 Youngstown St.

    Down 18–20, Youngstown St. scored 3 straight to lead 21–20. The match swung to Youngstown St.

    Youngstown St. 43% → 59%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 2 · NIU 22–22 Youngstown St.

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Youngstown St., enough to take the set 25–23 and level the match at 1–1.

    Youngstown St. 55% → 72%

Youngstown St. above 50NIU belowMax swing 9.8%

NIUYoungstown St.

Sideout %
NIU 49.5·Youngstown St. 56.3
Break %
NIU 43.7·Youngstown St. 50.5
Hitting
NIU .167·Youngstown St. .203
Longest run
NIU 5·Youngstown St. 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Youngstown St. above 50 · NIU below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.8% NIUrally 184 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.8% to NIU — set 1, NIU 25-23 YSU. Ace by Ava Grevengoed on Layne Graffice. YSU win probability 68% → 58%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NIU 21.6%78.4% YSU

NIU wins

3-0
3.6%
3-1
7.2%
3-2
10.7%

Youngstown St. wins

3-0
30.0%
3-1
29.8%
3-2
18.6%
NIU break %
39.0% vs this opp
YSU break %
45.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Ace by Ava Grevengoed on Layne Graffice

    Set 1 · NIU 25-23 YSU · NIU 32% → 42%

  2. 02

    Ace by Ava Grevengoed on Layne Graffice

    Set 1 · NIU 24-23 YSU · NIU 24% → 32%

  3. 03
    Katie PahlAttack error+7.7%

    Attack error by Katie Pahl

    Set 2 · NIU 22-24 YSU · YSU 61% → 69%

  4. 04
    Kylie SurrattKill+6.7%

    Kill by Kylie Surratt (set by Kameron Blizniak)

    Set 2 · NIU 23-25 YSU · YSU 66% → 72%

  5. 05

    Ace by Kameron Blizniak on Ava Grevengoed

    Set 2 · NIU 20-21 YSU · YSU 53% → 59%

  6. 06
    Layne GrafficeAttack error+6.5%

    Attack error by Layne Graffice

    Set 2 · NIU 20-18 YSU · NIU 51% → 57%

  7. 07

    Naomi Dowd stuffed by Layne Graffice & Wrigley Takats

    Set 2 · NIU 20-20 YSU · YSU 46% → 53%

  8. 08
    Naomi DowdService error+6.2%

    Service error by Naomi Dowd

    Set 2 · NIU 22-23 YSU · YSU 55% → 61%

Box score

Official NCAA box

NIUaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413839.128011111010.514.5
411341.19502010300013
411323.34810310031.512.5
48518.1670001004210
44418.00000441052.56.5
4103.3333311160010.52.5
4000–6211820002
4000–000600000
3012-.500000000000
2000–301300000
Team totals4824144.167436117010014786
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
48216.37514410174.516.5
413528.28601110002115
411643.11600262010.511.5
410122.40900030031.511.5
45327.074221131031.58.5
4103.3333111900213
4000–221900002
4000–000810000
34313.077000100215
3011-1.0001300400000
Team totals5221153.2034910106461201198

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

NIU vs Youngstown St.

Season series · Youngstown St. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NIU · YSU 6

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 NIUYSU 5

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 NIUYSU 4

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 NIUYSU 4

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 5 NIUYSU 6

Bars above the line = Youngstown St. leads, below = NIU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

NIU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%9/15
50%8/16
2
60%9/15
40%6/15
3
44%8/18
44%7/16
4
47%8/17
20%2/10
5
64%7/11
47%7/15
6
33%7/21
53%8/15
All
49%48/97
44%38/87

Youngstown St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%9/16
68%15/22
2
53%9/17
25%3/12
3
82%9/11
55%11/20
4
67%8/12
50%8/16
5
47%8/17
43%6/14
6
43%6/14
46%6/13
All
56%49/87
51%49/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

184 rallies

#NIU-YSUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1YSUYSUBlockedKatie Pahlblk Wrigley Takats, Kylie Surratt+1.8
20-2YSUYSUKillAbbie Householderset Kameron Blizniak+1.7
31-2YSUNIU×4KillNaomi Dowdset Viktoria Djukic+1.2
42-2NIUNIU×4AceCharlotte Gramzow+1.9
53-2NIUNIU×4Attack errAbbie Householder+2.1
64-2NIUNIU×4Attack errKylie Surratt+2.2
74-3NIUYSUAttack errAutumn Flynn+1.4
85-3YSUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.6
96-3NIUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+2.4
107-3NIUNIU×3KillViktoria Djukicset Viktoria Djukic+2.4
117-4NIUYSUServe errNaomi Dowd+1.4
127-5YSUYSUKillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+2.2
138-5YSUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+1.8
148-6NIUYSU×5KillAva Strattonset Hayden Rodriguez+1.5
158-7YSUYSU×5AceAbbie Householder+2.3
168-8YSUYSU×5AceAbbie Householderaced Naomi Dowd+2.3
178-9YSUYSU×5KillAva Strattonset Hayden Rodriguez+2.3
188-10YSUYSU×5KillLayne Grafficeset Hayden Rodriguez+2.1
199-10YSUNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Charlotte Gramzow+1.5
209-11NIUYSUKillLayne Grafficeset Hayden Rodriguez+1.5
2110-11YSUNIUAttack errAva Stratton+1.5
2210-12NIUYSU×3Serve errViktoria Djukic+1.5
2310-13YSUYSU×3KillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+2.0
2410-14YSUYSU×3KillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+1.6
2511-14YSUNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+1.0
2611-15NIUYSUKillWrigley Takatsset Kameron Blizniak+1.1
2712-15YSUNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+1.0
2812-16NIUYSUKillAbbie Householderset Kameron Blizniak+1.2
2913-16YSUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.0
3014-16NIUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.9
3115-16NIUNIU×3Attack errKorina Barber+2.5
3215-17NIUYSUServe errNaomi Dowd+1.9
3315-18YSUYSUBlockedKatie Pahlblk Korina Barber, Kameron Blizniak+2.4
3416-18YSUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Charlotte Gramzow+1.4
3516-19NIUYSUServe errKatie Pahl+1.7
3616-20YSUYSUKillKorina Barberset Hayden Rodriguez+1.8
3717-20YSUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+0.9
3818-20NIUNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+2.0
3918-21NIUYSUKillKorina Barberset Hayden Rodriguez+1.8
4019-21YSUNIU×4KillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+1.4
4120-21NIUNIU×4Attack errWrigley Takats+3.1
4221-21NIUNIU×4AceViktoria Djukicaced Journey Nicola+4.5
4322-21NIUNIU×4Attack errAva Stratton+5.7
4422-22NIUYSUAttack errAva Grevengoed+3.7
4522-23YSUYSUKillLayne Grafficeset Kameron Blizniak+6.2
4623-23YSUNIU×3KillNaomi Dowdset Viktoria Djukic+4.2
4724-23NIUNIU×3AceAva Grevengoedaced Layne Graffice+8.5
4825-23NIUNIU×3AceAva Grevengoedaced Layne Graffice+9.8
Set 2
11-0NIUNIUAttack errLayne Graffice+2.9
22-0NIUNIUBlockedKylie Surrattblk Naomi Dowd, Autumn Flynn+3.1
32-1NIUYSUKillLayne Grafficeset Kameron Blizniak+2.0
43-1YSUNIUServe errLayne Graffice+2.3
54-1NIUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+3.3
64-2NIUYSUKillAbbie Householderset Wrigley Takats+2.1
74-3YSUYSUAceWrigley Takats+3.1
85-3YSUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+2.4
96-3NIUNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+3.5
106-4NIUYSUKillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+2.2
117-4YSUNIUBlockedAbbie Householderblk Viktoria Djukic, Autumn Flynn+2.6
127-5NIUYSUKillKorina Barberset Kameron Blizniak+2.2
138-5YSUNIUServe errAbbie Householder+2.6
149-5NIUNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+3.6
159-6NIUYSU×3KillLayne Grafficeset Kameron Blizniak+2.1
169-7YSUYSU×3BlockedRylea Alvinblk Wrigley Takats, Kameron Blizniak+3.4
179-8YSUYSU×3AceJuliana Riveraaced Ava Grevengoed+3.5
1810-8YSUNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+2.8
1911-8NIUNIUKillNaomi Dowdset Viktoria Djukic+4.0
2011-9NIUYSU×4KillLayne Grafficeset Kameron Blizniak+2.4
2111-10YSUYSU×4KillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+3.7
2211-11YSUYSU×4Attack errNaomi Dowd+3.8
2311-12YSUYSU×4BlockedKatie Pahlblk Kylie Surratt, Wrigley Takats+3.7
2412-12YSUNIUKillNaomi Dowdset Viktoria Djukic+2.7
2512-13NIUYSUKillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+2.6
2613-13YSUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+2.8
2713-14NIUYSUKillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+2.8
2814-14YSUNIUServe errWrigley Takats+2.9
2915-14NIUNIUAceKatie Pahl+4.7
3015-15NIUYSUKillAbbie Householderset Kameron Blizniak+3.1
3116-15YSUNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Autumn Flynn+3.5
3216-16NIUYSUKillKameron Blizniakset Abbie Householder+3.3
3316-17YSUYSUKillLayne Grafficeset Kameron Blizniak+4.8
3417-17YSUNIUBad setKameron Blizniak+3.4
3517-18NIUYSUBad setCharlotte Gramzow+3.5
3618-18YSUNIU×3BlockedLayne Grafficeblk Naomi Dowd, Rylea Alvin+3.7
3719-18NIUNIU×3Attack errWrigley Takats+6.1
3820-18NIUNIU×3Attack errLayne Graffice+6.5
3920-19NIUYSU×3Attack errKatie Pahl+3.7
4020-20YSUYSU×3BlockedNaomi Dowdblk Layne Graffice, Wrigley Takats+6.4
4120-21YSUYSU×3AceKameron Blizniakaced Ava Grevengoed+6.7
4221-21YSUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+4.7
4321-22NIUYSUKillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+5.2
4422-22YSUNIUServe errLayne Graffice+5.3
4522-23NIUYSUServe errNaomi Dowd+6.2
4622-24YSUYSUAttack errKatie Pahl+7.7
4723-24YSUNIUServe errWrigley Takats+3.0
4823-25NIUYSUKillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+6.7
Set 3
10-1YSUYSUKillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+2.7
20-2YSUYSUBlockedNaomi Dowdblk Wrigley Takats, Abbie Householder+2.5
31-2YSUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.8
41-3NIUYSUKillWrigley Takatsset Autumn Flynn+1.8
52-3YSUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Charlotte Gramzow+1.8
62-4NIUYSU×3Serve errNaomi Dowd+1.8
72-5YSUYSU×3KillLayne Grafficeset Kameron Blizniak+2.4
82-6YSUYSU×3KillKorina Barberset Kameron Blizniak+2.0
93-6YSUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+1.3
103-7NIUYSUKillAva Strattonset Hayden Rodriguez+1.4
114-7YSUNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic+1.4
125-7NIUNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+2.3
135-8NIUYSUServe errAutumn Flynn+1.7
146-8YSUNIUServe errJuliana Rivera+1.7
156-9NIUYSUKillWrigley Takatsset Hayden Rodriguez+1.8
166-10YSUYSUKillWrigley Takatsset Kameron Blizniak+2.2
177-10YSUNIUServe errKameron Blizniak+1.4
187-11NIUYSUKillLayne Grafficeset Abbie Householder+1.5
198-11YSUNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+1.4
208-12NIUYSU×3BlockedNaomi Dowdblk Abbie Householder, Wrigley Takats+1.6
218-13YSUYSU×3KillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+1.8
228-14YSUYSU×3AceWrigley Takatsaced Charlotte Gramzow+1.4
239-14YSUNIUServe errWrigley Takats+0.7
2410-14NIUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+1.5
2510-15NIUYSU×4Attack errKatie Pahl+1.3
2610-16YSUYSU×4AceKylie Surratt+1.3
2710-17YSUYSU×4KillKorina Barberset Kameron Blizniak+0.9
2810-18YSUYSU×4KillAbbie Householderset Kameron Blizniak+0.5
2911-18YSUNIUServe errKylie Surratt+0.2
3011-19NIUYSUBlockedAva Grevengoedblk Korina Barber, Ava Stratton+0.3
3112-19YSUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+0.2
3212-20NIUYSU×3Attack errRylea Alvin+0.3
3312-21YSUYSU×3KillLayne Grafficeset Juliana Rivera+0.2
3412-22YSUYSU×3AceJuliana Riveraaced Ava Grevengoed+0.1
3513-22YSUNIUKillRylea Alvinset Kylie Schulze·
3614-22NIUNIUKillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic·
3714-23NIUYSUKillLayne Grafficeset Hayden Rodriguez+0.1
3815-23YSUNIU×3Attack errKylie Surratt·
3916-23NIUNIU×3BlockedKylie Surrattblk Rylea Alvin, Naomi Dowd·
4017-23NIUNIU×3KillKatie Pahlset Charlotte Gramzow+0.1
4117-24NIUYSUKillWrigley Takatsset Kameron Blizniak+0.1
4217-25YSUYSUBlockedRylea Alvinblk Abbie Householder, Wrigley Takats·
Set 4
11-0NIUNIUKillRylea Alvinset Viktoria Djukic+2.4
22-0NIUNIUAceCharlotte Gramzowaced Abbie Householder+2.6
32-1NIUYSUKillWrigley Takatsset Kameron Blizniak+1.7
43-1YSUNIU×3KillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+1.9
54-1NIUNIU×3BlockedKylie Surrattblk Katie Pahl, Autumn Flynn+2.8
65-1NIUNIU×3KillAutumn Flynn+2.8
75-2NIUYSU×3Serve errKylie Schulze+1.7
85-3YSUYSU×3AceWrigley Takatsaced Charlotte Gramzow+2.6
95-4YSUYSU×3AceWrigley Takatsaced Katie Pahl+2.6
106-4YSUNIUServe errWrigley Takats+2.1
116-5NIUYSUKillKylie Surrattset Kameron Blizniak+1.8
126-6YSUYSUAttack errAutumn Flynn+2.7
137-6YSUNIU×3KillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+2.0
148-6NIUNIU×3Attack errAbbie Householder+3.0
159-6NIUNIU×3KillRylea Alvin+3.1
169-7NIUYSU×3Serve errNIU+1.9
179-8YSUYSU×3KillKorina Barberset Hayden Rodriguez+2.9
189-9YSUYSU×3Attack errRylea Alvin+2.9
1910-9YSUNIUAttack errLayne Graffice+2.2
2010-10NIUYSUKillKorina Barberset Hayden Rodriguez+2.1
2111-10YSUNIUBlockedLayne Grafficeblk Rylea Alvin, Naomi Dowd+2.3
2212-10NIUNIUAttack errHayden Rodriguez+3.5
2312-11NIUYSU×6KillAva Strattonset Hayden Rodriguez+2.2
2412-12YSUYSU×6KillWrigley Takatsset Kameron Blizniak+3.3
2512-13YSUYSU×6Attack errKatie Pahl+3.2
2612-14YSUYSU×6KillKylie Surrattset Juliana Rivera+3.0
2712-15YSUYSU×6Attack errKatie Pahl+2.6
2812-16YSUYSU×6BlockedRylea Alvinblk Wrigley Takats+2.0
2913-16YSUNIUKillKatie Pahlset Viktoria Djukic+1.2
3013-17NIUYSUServe errNIU+1.4
3113-18YSUYSUAttack errAutumn Flynn+1.5
3214-18YSUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Viktoria Djukic+0.8
3314-19NIUYSUKillWrigley Takatsset Kameron Blizniak+1.0
3415-19YSUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+0.7
3515-20NIUYSU×3KillKorina Barberset Kameron Blizniak+1.0
3615-21YSUYSU×3KillKorina Barber+0.8
3715-22YSUYSU×3Attack errKiana Shields+0.4
3816-22YSUNIUKillAutumn Flynnset Kylie Schulze+0.1
3916-23NIUYSUServe errAutumn Flynn+0.2
4016-24YSUYSUBlockedAva Grevengoedblk Ava Stratton, Korina Barber+0.1
4117-24YSUNIU×5KillAva Grevengoedset Charlotte Gramzow·
4218-24NIUNIU×5KillAva Grevengoedset Viktoria Djukic·
4319-24NIUNIU×5BlockedLayne Grafficeblk Naomi Dowd, Rylea Alvin+0.1
4420-24NIUNIU×5Attack errAva Stratton+0.2
4521-24NIUNIU×5KillAva Grevengoedset Charlotte Gramzow+0.5
4621-25NIUYSUKillKorina Barberset Hayden Rodriguez+0.8

Score shown after each rally, NIU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).