Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Troy def. Southern Miss. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Southern Miss. 54.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Troy won at Southern Miss. 3-1 (25-20, 25-22, 28-30, 27-25) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Isa Ruether led Troy with 18 kills; Southern Miss.'s Sadie McAda had a match-high 19.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
TROY252528273
S MISS202230251

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Isa Ruether had 18 kills to lead Troy past Southern Miss. in a close one.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Troy's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ had Southern Miss. at 54% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Troy 22–22 Southern Miss.

    Troy scored 3 straight to go from 22–22 to a 25–22 lead.

    Troy 67% → 86%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Troy 28–27 Southern Miss.

    Southern Miss. scored 3 straight to turn a 27–28 deficit into a 30–28 lead.

    Troy 92% → 72%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Troy 24–24 Southern Miss.

    Troy closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 27–25 and win the match 3–1.

    Troy 75% → >99%

Southern Miss. above 50Troy belowMax swing 14.2%

TroySouthern Miss.

Sideout %
Troy 63.3·Southern Miss. 58.7
Break %
Troy 41.3·Southern Miss. 36.7
Hitting
Troy .206·Southern Miss. .135
Longest run
Troy 5·Southern Miss. 6

Isa Ruether
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 18 K, .333, 19 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern Miss. above 50 · Troy below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+14.2% TROYrally 202 · set 4

Biggest swing: 14.2% to Troy — set 4, TROY 27-25 S MISS. Troy ace on Lindsey Smith. S MISS win probability 14% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TROY 53.0%47.0% S MISS

Troy wins

3-0
13.8%
3-1
20.0%
3-2
19.2%

Southern Miss. wins

3-0
11.3%
3-1
17.5%
3-2
18.2%
TROY break %
41.8% vs this opp
S MISS break %
41.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    TroyAce+14.2%

    Troy ace on Lindsey Smith

    Set 4 · TROY 27-25 S MISS · TROY 86% → 100%

  2. 02
    Ashlynn AxtellKill+10.5%

    Kill by Ashlynn Axtell (set by Madison Marx)

    Set 4 · TROY 24-23 S MISS · TROY 75% → 86%

  3. 03
    Sunni SheppardKill+10.5%

    Kill by Sunni Sheppard

    Set 4 · TROY 24-24 S MISS · S MISS 14% → 25%

  4. 04
    Isa RuetherKill+10.5%

    Kill by Isa Ruether (set by Madison Marx)

    Set 4 · TROY 25-24 S MISS · TROY 75% → 86%

  5. 05
    Aubrey JuddKill+10.5%

    Kill by Aubrey Judd (set by Allie Hazelwood)

    Set 4 · TROY 25-25 S MISS · S MISS 14% → 25%

  6. 06
    Kalina CalvilloKill+10.5%

    Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Madison Marx)

    Set 4 · TROY 26-25 S MISS · TROY 75% → 86%

  7. 07

    Isa Ruether stuffed by Aubrey Judd & Maggie Sewell

    Set 4 · TROY 22-22 S MISS · S MISS 16% → 25%

  8. 08
    Aubrey JuddAttack error+8.3%

    Attack error by Aubrey Judd

    Set 4 · TROY 23-22 S MISS · TROY 75% → 83%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Troyaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418636.3330003002119
48327.18500020275.513.5
412744.1141036002113
48424.16703311200011
44112.250101460637
4001.00028321000003
44111.273000100426
4000–122300002
4000–161140010.51.5
4000–011010001
4000–4002310000
Team totals5422155.206511013671022213105
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4191059.153002160010.519.5
49220.35000100052.511.5
4406.6673922120031.57.5
4000–023430002
4000–112610001
2329.111000001014
48225.2400005006311
41011.0003531740006
45723-.08700050010.55.5
3046-.667000102655
2017-.143000000000
Team totals4928156.13543101366103221497

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Troy vs Southern Miss.

Season series · Troy leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 TROY · S MISS 6

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 TROYS MISS 3

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 5 TROYS MISS 3

Set 3

28-30

Longest run 4 TROYS MISS 6

Set 4

27-25

Longest run 5 TROYS MISS 5

Bars above the line = Southern Miss. leads, below = Troy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Troy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%12/21
31%5/16
2
63%12/19
48%11/23
3
79%11/14
59%16/27
4
50%9/18
36%5/14
5
69%9/13
36%5/14
6
69%9/13
10%1/10
All
63%62/98
41%43/104

Southern Miss.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%12/18
52%11/21
2
43%12/28
14%2/14
3
50%10/20
40%8/20
4
75%9/12
38%6/16
5
69%9/13
36%5/14
6
69%9/13
31%4/13
All
59%61/104
37%36/98

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

202 rallies

#TROY-S MISSSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.9
21-1TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+1.8
32-1S MISSTROY×4KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.9
43-1TROYTROY×4Attack errLillie Johnson+2.5
54-1TROYTROY×4KillKalina Calvilloset Kenzly Foote+2.5
65-1TROYTROY×4KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.3
75-2TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.6
85-3S MISSS MISSAceSouthern Miss.aced Brooke Forkum+2.4
96-3S MISSTROYAttack errSadie McAda+2.0
106-4TROYS MISS×3KillLillie Johnsonset Allie Hazelwood+1.8
116-5S MISSS MISS×3Attack errKalina Calvillo+2.6
126-6S MISSS MISS×3BlockedSophie Ocampoblk Lillie Johnson+2.7
137-6S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.2
147-7TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+2.1
157-8S MISSS MISSBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Elly Stewart, Aubrey Judd+2.9
168-8S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.2
178-9TROYS MISSServe errTroy+2.2
189-9S MISSTROY×3BlockedElly Stewartblk Sophie Ocampo, Isa Ruether+2.2
1910-9TROYTROY×3AceTroy+3.1
2011-9TROYTROY×3BlockedSadie McAdablk Ashlynn Axtell+3.1
2111-10TROYS MISSAttack errIsa Ruether+2.2
2211-11S MISSS MISSAceSouthern Miss.aced Brooke Forkum+3.2
2312-11S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.5
2412-12TROYS MISSKillAllie Hazelwood+2.5
2513-12S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.6
2614-12TROYTROYBlockedSadie McAdablk Brooke Forkum, Ashlynn Axtell+3.5
2714-13TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+2.4
2815-13S MISSTROY×3Serve errSouthern Miss.+2.7
2916-13TROYTROY×3KillBrooke Forkumset Kalina Calvillo+3.4
3017-13TROYTROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+3.0
3117-14TROYS MISSKillLillie Johnsonset Allie Hazelwood+1.8
3218-14S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+2.3
3319-14TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Haley Nash+2.3
3419-15TROYS MISSKillLillie Johnsonset Allie Hazelwood+1.2
3520-15S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+1.7
3620-16TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+1.1
3721-16S MISSTROYBlockedDiana Wellsblk Sophie Ocampo, Josephine Hensley+1.7
3821-17TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Allie Hazelwood+1.0
3922-17S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.6
4023-17TROYTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Haley Nash+1.1
4123-18TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Sunni Sheppard+0.3
4223-19S MISSS MISSBad setMadison Marx+0.7
4324-19S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.1
4424-20TROYS MISSKillAllie Hazelwood+0.3
4525-20S MISSTROYBlockedAubrey Juddblk Brooke Forkum, Ashlynn Axtell+0.6
Set 2
10-1TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.9
21-1S MISSTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.9
32-1TROYTROY×3Attack errSadie McAda+2.6
43-1TROYTROY×3Attack errLillie Johnson+2.7
53-2TROYS MISSKillAllie Hazelwood+1.9
63-3S MISSS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Sunni Sheppard+2.7
74-3S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+2.1
85-3TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+2.8
95-4TROYS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Allie Hazelwood+2.0
106-4S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.1
116-5TROYS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Allie Hazelwood+2.0
126-6S MISSS MISSAceSouthern Miss.aced Haley Nash+2.9
137-6S MISSTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Haley Nash+2.3
147-7TROYS MISSServe errTroy+2.2
157-8S MISSS MISSBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Elly Stewart, Diana Wells+3.0
168-8S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.3
178-9TROYS MISS×3Attack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+2.3
188-10S MISSS MISS×3AceSouthern Miss.aced Olivia Kwiatkowski+3.1
198-11S MISSS MISS×3KillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+2.9
209-11S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.0
219-12TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+2.2
2210-12S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Brooke Forkum+2.0
2310-13TROYS MISSServe errTroy+2.3
2411-13S MISSTROY×5KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+2.1
2512-13TROYTROY×5KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+3.2
2613-13TROYTROY×5Attack errSadie McAda+3.6
2714-13TROYTROY×5KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+3.8
2815-13TROYTROY×5AceTroyaced Kaylee Lowther+3.8
2915-14TROYS MISSServe errTroy+2.6
3016-14S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+3.0
3116-15TROYS MISS×3KillAubrey Juddset Allie Hazelwood+2.7
3216-16S MISSS MISS×3Attack errKalina Calvillo+4.1
3316-17S MISSS MISS×3KillAubrey Juddset Allie Hazelwood+4.4
3417-17S MISSTROYAttack errElly Stewart+3.3
3518-17TROYTROYAceTroyaced Sunni Sheppard+4.7
3618-18TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Allie Hazelwood+3.5
3719-18S MISSTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+3.8
3819-19TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+3.7
3920-19S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+4.2
4021-19TROYTROYAceTroyaced Sunni Sheppard+5.5
4121-20TROYS MISSAttack errAshlynn Axtell+3.4
4221-21S MISSS MISSAttack errIsa Ruether+6.0
4322-21S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+5.3
4422-22TROYS MISSBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Maggie Sewell+5.1
4523-22S MISSTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+6.2
4624-22TROYTROY×3BlockedSadie McAdablk Ashlynn Axtell, Kalina Calvillo+8.0
4725-22TROYTROY×3Attack errSadie McAda+4.6
Set 3
11-0S MISSTROY×4KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.4
22-0TROYTROY×4KillIsa Ruetherset Allie Hazelwood+1.8
33-0TROYTROY×4AceTroyaced Sunni Sheppard+1.8
44-0TROYTROY×4AceTroyaced Kaylee Lowther+1.7
54-1TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+1.2
65-1S MISSTROYAttack errMaggie Sewell+1.3
76-1TROYTROYBlockedMaggie Sewellblk Ashlynn Axtell+1.6
86-2TROYS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Allie Hazelwood+1.0
97-2S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.2
107-3TROYS MISS×3BlockedKalina Calvilloblk Elly Stewart, Allie Hazelwood+1.0
117-4S MISSS MISS×3KillDiana Wellsset Allie Hazelwood+1.6
127-5S MISSS MISS×3KillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+1.8
138-5S MISSTROYAttack errDiana Wells+1.5
148-6TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+1.4
159-6S MISSTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.5
169-7TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.4
179-8S MISSS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+2.1
1810-8S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.7
1910-9TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+1.6
2011-9S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.7
2111-10TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.6
2212-10S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.8
2313-10TROYTROYAceTroy+2.3
2413-11TROYS MISSKillAllie Hazelwood+1.5
2514-11S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.8
2615-11TROYTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.1
2715-12TROYS MISSBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Elly Stewart, Aubrey Judd+1.3
2815-13S MISSS MISSAceSouthern Miss.aced Brooke Forkum+2.1
2916-13S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.9
3016-14TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.6
3117-14S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+2.0
3217-15TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.7
3318-15S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.1
3418-16TROYS MISS×6BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Allie Hazelwood, Maggie Sewell+1.7
3518-17S MISSS MISS×6Attack errAshlynn Axtell+2.8
3618-18S MISSS MISS×6BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Maggie Sewell+3.3
3718-19S MISSS MISS×6BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Aubrey Judd, Maggie Sewell+3.5
3818-20S MISSS MISS×6KillSadie McAdaset Sunni Sheppard+3.4
3918-21S MISSS MISS×6AceSouthern Miss.aced Kayla Baetzel+2.9
4019-21S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+1.6
4119-22TROYS MISSBlockedBrooke Forkumblk Aubrey Judd, Maggie Sewell+2.3
4220-22S MISSTROY×4Attack errMaggie Sewell+1.6
4321-22TROYTROY×4KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+3.3
4422-22TROYTROY×4Attack errEmily Davis+4.7
4523-22TROYTROY×4Attack errDiana Wells+5.8
4623-23TROYS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Allie Hazelwood+4.2
4723-24S MISSS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+7.3
4824-24S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+5.5
4924-25TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Allie Hazelwood+5.5
5025-25S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+5.5
5125-26TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+5.5
5226-26S MISSTROYBlockedSadie McAdablk Sophie Ocampo, Isa Ruether+5.5
5326-27TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+5.5
5427-27S MISSTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+5.5
5528-27TROYTROYAttack errMaggie Sewell+7.4
5628-28TROYS MISS×3KillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+5.6
5728-29S MISSS MISS×3Bad setHaley Nash+7.3
5828-30S MISSS MISS×3BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Aubrey Judd, Maggie Sewell+7.1
Set 4
10-1TROYS MISSServe errTroy+2.5
21-1S MISSTROY×5KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.6
32-1TROYTROY×5KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+3.5
43-1TROYTROY×5KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+3.5
54-1TROYTROY×5BlockedDiana Wellsblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+3.4
65-1TROYTROY×5BlockedDiana Wellsblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+3.3
75-2TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Allie Hazelwood+2.2
85-3S MISSS MISSAceSouthern Miss.aced Brooke Forkum+3.3
96-3S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.7
106-4TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+2.5
117-4S MISSTROYBlockedDiana Wellsblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+2.8
128-4TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Allie Hazelwood+3.4
138-5TROYS MISSServe errTroy+2.3
148-6S MISSS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Lindsey Smith+3.4
159-6S MISSTROY×4Serve errSouthern Miss.+2.9
1610-6TROYTROY×4BlockedSadie McAdablk Sophie Ocampo, Kalina Calvillo+3.6
1711-6TROYTROY×4Attack errSadie McAda+3.2
1812-6TROYTROY×4KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.7
1912-7TROYS MISS×3KillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+1.6
2012-8S MISSS MISS×3Bad setJosephine Hensley+2.6
2112-9S MISSS MISS×3BlockedKalina Calvilloblk Maggie Sewell, Sadie McAda+3.2
2213-9S MISSTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.9
2314-9TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowski+3.2
2414-10TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+1.9
2515-10S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.5
2616-10TROYTROYAceTroyaced Kaylee Lowther+2.6
2716-11TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+1.4
2817-11S MISSTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.9
2918-11TROYTROYAceTroyaced Sunni Sheppard+1.8
3018-12TROYS MISS×5Serve errTroy+0.8
3118-13S MISSS MISS×5Attack errIsa Ruether+1.6
3218-14S MISSS MISS×5AceSouthern Miss.aced Brooke Forkum+2.3
3318-15S MISSS MISS×5AceSouthern Miss.aced Brooke Forkum+3.2
3418-16S MISSS MISS×5AceSouthern Miss.aced Olivia Kwiatkowski+4.2
3519-16S MISSTROYBlockedDiana Wellsblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+4.0
3619-17TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+3.2
3719-18S MISSS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+5.5
3820-18S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Haley Nash+5.1
3920-19TROYS MISSBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Allie Hazelwood, Elly Stewart+4.4
4021-19S MISSTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+5.5
4121-20TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+4.6
4222-20S MISSTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+6.1
4322-21TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+4.8
4422-22S MISSS MISSBlockedIsa Ruetherblk Aubrey Judd, Maggie Sewell+8.9
4523-22S MISSTROYAttack errAubrey Judd+8.3
4623-23TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+7.9
4724-23S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+10.5
4824-24TROYS MISSKillSunni Sheppard+10.5
4925-24S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+10.5
5025-25TROYS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Allie Hazelwood+10.5
5126-25S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+10.5
5227-25TROYTROYAceTroyaced Lindsey Smith+14.2

Score shown after each rally, Troy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).