Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Troy def. Southern Miss. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Southern Miss. 51.0% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 3:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Troy won at Southern Miss. 3-1 (23-25, 25-23, 25-23, 25-20) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Troy's Isa Ruether led with 15 kills, and Haley Nash added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
TROY232525253
S MISS252323201

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Southern Miss. pushed; Troy held.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Troy's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, Southern Miss. was RallyIQ's 51% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Troy 16–19 Southern Miss.

    Down 16–19, Troy scored 4 straight to lead 20–19. The match swung to Troy.

    Troy 33% → 55%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Troy 22–22 Southern Miss.

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Troy, enough to take the set 25–23 and lead 2–1.

    Troy 50% → 74%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Troy 9–10 Southern Miss.

    6 straight Troy points turned a 9–10 deficit into a 15–10 lead.

    Troy 71% → 94%

Southern Miss. above 50Troy belowMax swing 10.2%

TroySouthern Miss.

Sideout %
Troy 66.3·Southern Miss. 61.9
Break %
Troy 38.1·Southern Miss. 33.7
Hitting
Troy .205·Southern Miss. .174
Longest run
Troy 6·Southern Miss. 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern Miss. above 50 · Troy below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.2% TROYrally 189 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.2% to Troy — set 3, TROY 24-22 S MISS. Kill by Sophie Ocampo. S MISS win probability 42% → 32%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TROY 53.0%47.0% S MISS

Troy wins

3-0
13.8%
3-1
20.0%
3-2
19.2%

Southern Miss. wins

3-0
11.3%
3-1
17.5%
3-2
18.2%
TROY break %
41.8% vs this opp
S MISS break %
41.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sophie OcampoKill+10.2%

    Kill by Sophie Ocampo

    Set 3 · TROY 24-22 S MISS · TROY 58% → 68%

  2. 02
    Isa RuetherKill+10.0%

    Kill by Isa Ruether (set by Josephine Hensley)

    Set 3 · TROY 25-23 S MISS · TROY 64% → 74%

  3. 03
    Isa RuetherKill+7.8%

    Kill by Isa Ruether (set by Madison Marx)

    Set 3 · TROY 23-22 S MISS · TROY 50% → 58%

  4. 04

    Kalina Calvillo stuffed by Sadie McAda & Elly Stewart

    Set 1 · TROY 22-24 S MISS · S MISS 58% → 66%

  5. 05

    Aubrey Judd stuffed by Ashlynn Axtell & Brooke Forkum

    Set 2 · TROY 25-23 S MISS · TROY 42% → 49%

  6. 06
    TroyService error+7.4%

    Troy service error

    Set 1 · TROY 23-25 S MISS · S MISS 63% → 70%

  7. 07
    TroyAce+7.1%

    Troy ace

    Set 3 · TROY 20-19 S MISS · TROY 48% → 55%

  8. 08
    Southern Miss.Service error+6.6%

    Southern Miss. service error

    Set 3 · TROY 22-21 S MISS · TROY 50% → 57%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Troyaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415731.2580002002116
411227.33310020174.515.5
411330.2671253002114
45218.16713140052.510.5
471127-.14812242010.59.5
4000–2413700001
47113.46200010031.58.5
4000–4001620000
4000–19011100000
4000–002400000
1000–001000000
Team totals5626146.205518155441201198
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414538.23710113308418
49122.36400110031.510.5
4217.143000001116.58.5
4135-.4002633800215
4000–004830000
35320.10000020010.55.5
410725.12000020031.511.5
4000–1111410001
4001.0001401200000
23113.154000200003
1001.000000000000
Team totals4421132.174424115281281591

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Troy vs Southern Miss.

Season series · Troy leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 TROY · S MISS 6

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 TROYS MISS 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 6 TROYS MISS 6

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 TROYS MISS 4

Set 4

25-20

Longest run 6 TROYS MISS 3

Bars above the line = Southern Miss. leads, below = Troy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Troy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%12/23
33%5/15
2
67%12/18
48%11/23
3
100%10/10
23%3/13
4
71%10/14
41%7/17
5
69%9/13
40%6/15
6
57%8/14
36%5/14
All
66%61/92
38%37/97

Southern Miss.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
86%12/14
41%7/17
2
50%12/24
45%10/22
3
59%10/17
20%3/15
4
56%9/16
17%2/12
5
82%9/11
40%6/15
6
53%8/15
27%3/11
All
62%60/97
34%31/92

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

189 rallies

#TROY-S MISSSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.8
21-1TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+1.8
32-1S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.9
43-1TROYTROYAttack errMaggie Sewell+2.5
53-2TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Allie Hazelwood+1.8
64-2S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.9
74-3TROYS MISS×3KillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+1.9
84-4S MISSS MISS×3KillDiana Wellsset Allie Hazelwood+2.7
94-5S MISSS MISS×3KillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+2.7
105-5S MISSTROYAttack errAllie Hazelwood+2.0
115-6TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Sunni Sheppard+2.1
126-6S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.1
137-6TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Allie Hazelwood+2.9
147-7TROYS MISS×3Serve errTroy+2.1
157-8S MISSS MISS×3Attack errIsa Ruether+2.9
167-9S MISSS MISS×3KillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+2.9
178-9S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.1
188-10TROYS MISSBlockedIsa Ruetherblk Allie Hazelwood, Maggie Sewell+2.2
199-10S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.1
209-11TROYS MISS×4KillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+2.3
219-12S MISSS MISS×4KillDiana Wells+2.9
229-13S MISSS MISS×4Bad setMadison Marx+2.6
239-14S MISSS MISS×4Attack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+2.2
2410-14S MISSTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+1.3
2510-15TROYS MISSBlockedBrooke Forkumblk Maggie Sewell, Diana Wells+1.7
2611-15S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.3
2711-16TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Allie Hazelwood+1.7
2812-16S MISSTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.3
2912-17TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.7
3013-17S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.2
3113-18TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Morgen Durgens+1.7
3214-18S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+1.2
3314-19TROYS MISSAttack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+1.6
3415-19S MISSTROYBlockedAubrey Juddblk Ashlynn Axtell, Isa Ruether+1.1
3515-20TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.6
3616-20S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.0
3716-21TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.5
3817-21S MISSTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+0.9
3918-21TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Haley Nash+1.9
4018-22TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+2.2
4119-22S MISSTROY×4KillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.3
4220-22TROYTROY×4AceTroyaced Sadie McAda+2.9
4321-22TROYTROY×4AceTroyaced Sadie McAda+4.5
4422-22TROYTROY×4AceTroyaced Sadie McAda+6.5
4522-23TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Morgen Durgens+5.9
4622-24S MISSS MISSBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Sadie McAda, Elly Stewart+7.5
4723-24S MISSTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+3.1
4823-25TROYS MISSServe errTroy+7.4
Set 2
10-1TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.8
21-1S MISSTROY×6KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.8
32-1TROYTROY×6AceTroyaced Kaylee Lowther+2.5
43-1TROYTROY×6KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.5
54-1TROYTROY×6Bad setAllie Hazelwood+2.4
65-1TROYTROY×6KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.3
76-1TROYTROY×6BlockedSadie McAdablk Ashlynn Axtell+2.1
86-2TROYS MISSBlockedIsa Ruetherblk Maggie Sewell, Sadie McAda+1.3
96-3S MISSS MISSBlockedIsa Ruetherblk Diana Wells, Maggie Sewell+2.1
107-3S MISSTROYBlockedDiana Wellsblk Isa Ruether, Ashlynn Axtell+1.8
117-4TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.6
128-4S MISSTROY×3Attack errSadie McAda+1.8
139-4TROYTROY×3BlockedDiana Wellsblk Brooke Forkum, Sophie Ocampo+2.1
1410-4TROYTROY×3BlockedDiana Wellsblk Brooke Forkum, Sophie Ocampo+1.8
1510-5TROYS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Allie Hazelwood+1.1
1611-5S MISSTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+1.3
1711-6TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Morgen Durgens+1.1
1812-6S MISSTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.3
1913-6TROYTROYAceTroyaced Kaylee Lowther+1.4
2013-7TROYS MISSServe errTroy+0.8
2113-8S MISSS MISSBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Sadie McAda, Maggie Sewell+1.4
2214-8S MISSTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.3
2315-8TROYTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Ashlynn Axtell+1.4
2415-9TROYS MISSAttack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+0.7
2515-10S MISSS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Allie Hazelwood+1.3
2616-10S MISSTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.3
2716-11TROYS MISSKillMaggie Sewellset Allie Hazelwood+0.9
2817-11S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.3
2918-11TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.2
3018-12TROYS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Allie Hazelwood+0.5
3119-12S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+0.8
3219-13TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+0.5
3320-13S MISSTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+0.7
3420-14TROYS MISSAttack errSophie Ocampo+0.4
3521-14S MISSTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+0.6
3622-14TROYTROYAceTroyaced Kaylee Lowther+0.4
3722-15TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Morgen Durgens+0.1
3823-15S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+0.2
3923-16TROYS MISS×6BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Sadie McAda, Maggie Sewell+0.1
4023-17S MISSS MISS×6Attack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+0.2
4123-18S MISSS MISS×6BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Aubrey Judd, Maggie Sewell+0.3
4223-19S MISSS MISS×6BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Maggie Sewell+0.7
4323-20S MISSS MISS×6KillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+1.3
4423-21S MISSS MISS×6BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Sadie McAda, Maggie Sewell+2.6
4524-21S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+3.4
4624-22TROYS MISSServe errTroy+1.3
4724-23S MISSS MISSBlockedIsa Ruetherblk Diana Wells, Maggie Sewell+4.2
4825-23S MISSTROYBlockedAubrey Juddblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+7.4
Set 3
10-1S MISSS MISS×4AceSouthern Miss.aced Haley Nash+3.3
20-2S MISSS MISS×4KillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+3.3
30-3S MISSS MISS×4AceSouthern Miss.aced Olivia Kwiatkowski+3.2
40-4S MISSS MISS×4AceSouthern Miss.aced Haley Nash+3.0
51-4S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.0
61-5TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+2.2
72-5S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.0
82-6TROYS MISSServe errTroy+2.3
93-6S MISSTROY×3Attack errDiana Wells+2.0
104-6TROYTROY×3KillBrooke Forkumset Haley Nash+3.1
115-6TROYTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Haley Nash+3.5
125-7TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+2.7
136-7S MISSTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.6
147-7TROYTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Brooke Forkum+3.8
158-7TROYTROY×3Attack errElly Stewart+3.9
168-8TROYS MISSAttack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+2.9
178-9S MISSS MISSBad setJosephine Hensley+4.1
189-9S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+3.0
199-10TROYS MISSKillElly Stewartset Morgen Durgens+3.1
209-11S MISSS MISSBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Maggie Sewell, Sadie McAda+4.1
2110-11S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+2.9
2210-12TROYS MISSKillAllie Hazelwoodset Morgen Durgens+3.2
2311-12S MISSTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Kalina Calvillo+3.0
2411-13TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+3.3
2512-13S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Emily Davis+3.1
2612-14TROYS MISSKillEmily Davisset Allie Hazelwood+3.4
2713-14S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+3.2
2814-14TROYTROYAttack errDiana Wells+4.8
2914-15TROYS MISSKillEmily Davisset Allie Hazelwood+3.8
3015-15S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+3.7
3115-16TROYS MISS×3KillElly Stewartset Allie Hazelwood+4.0
3215-17S MISSS MISS×3Attack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+5.3
3315-18S MISSS MISS×3BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Allie Hazelwood, Elly Stewart+4.8
3416-18S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.9
3516-19TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Morgen Durgens+3.7
3617-19S MISSTROY×4KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+3.0
3718-19TROYTROY×4BlockedSadie McAdablk Ashlynn Axtell, Kalina Calvillo+5.3
3819-19TROYTROY×4BlockedAllie Hazelwoodblk Olivia Kwiatkowski, Ashlynn Axtell+6.4
3920-19TROYTROY×4AceTroy+7.1
4020-20TROYS MISSServe errTroy+5.1
4121-20S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+5.8
4221-21TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+5.7
4322-21S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+6.6
4422-22TROYS MISSServe errTroy+6.4
4523-22S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+7.8
4624-22TROYTROYKillSophie Ocampo+10.2
4724-23TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Allie Hazelwood+4.2
4825-23S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+10.0
Set 4
11-0TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Olivia Kwiatkowski+3.4
21-1TROYS MISSBlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Elly Stewart, Sadie McAda+2.5
32-1S MISSTROYBad setSadie McAda+2.5
43-1TROYTROYAceTroyaced Sunni Sheppard+3.4
53-2TROYS MISSKillMaggie Sewellset Morgen Durgens+2.4
64-2S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.6
74-3TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Allie Hazelwood+2.5
85-3S MISSTROYBlockedDiana Wellsblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+2.6
95-4TROYS MISS×3Serve errTroy+2.5
105-5S MISSS MISS×3AceSouthern Miss.aced Olivia Kwiatkowski+3.7
115-6S MISSS MISS×3Attack errIsa Ruether+3.8
126-6S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+2.8
136-7TROYS MISSServe errTroy+2.9
147-7S MISSTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.8
158-7TROYTROYKillSophie Ocampo+4.0
168-8TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Sadie McAda+2.9
178-9S MISSS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Morgen Durgens+4.1
189-9S MISSTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+3.0
199-10TROYS MISSServe errTroy+3.1
2010-10S MISSTROY×6KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+3.1
2111-10TROYTROY×6Attack errAllie Hazelwood+4.4
2212-10TROYTROY×6KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+4.4
2313-10TROYTROY×6Attack errSadie McAda+4.1
2414-10TROYTROY×6KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+3.7
2515-10TROYTROY×6Attack errAubrey Judd+3.1
2615-11TROYS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Morgen Durgens+1.8
2716-11S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.3
2817-11TROYTROYBlockedEmily Davisblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+2.3
2917-12TROYS MISSAttack errBrooke Forkum+1.2
3018-12S MISSTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.7
3118-13TROYS MISSKillEmily Davisset Allie Hazelwood+1.1
3219-13S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.6
3320-13TROYTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Haley Nash+1.4
3420-14TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Allie Hazelwood+0.5
3521-14S MISSTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+0.9
3622-14TROYTROYBlockedDiana Wellsblk Kalina Calvillo, Sophie Ocampo+0.6
3722-15TROYS MISSKillDiana Wellsset Morgen Durgens+0.1
3822-16S MISSS MISSKillSadie McAdaset Morgen Durgens+0.4
3923-16S MISSTROYServe errSouthern Miss.+0.5
4023-17TROYS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Morgen Durgens+0.2
4123-18S MISSS MISSAttack errKalina Calvillo+0.5
4224-18S MISSTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.7
4324-19TROYS MISSKillAubrey Juddset Morgen Durgens+0.1
4424-20S MISSS MISSBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Maggie Sewell, Sadie McAda+0.4
4525-20S MISSTROYAttack errSadie McAda+0.8

Score shown after each rally, Troy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).