Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Troy def. ULM 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Troy 90.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 4:10 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Troy beat visiting ULM 3-1 (22-25, 25-21, 25-19, 25-11) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Troy's Ashlynn Axtell led with 13 kills, and Haley Nash added 17 digs.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set1234Sets
LA MON252119111
TROY222525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

ULM hit .080. Troy held them there all match.

No single rally moved win probability more than 5.9 points. ULM peaked at 46% in Set 2. These are the stats that built the gap. RallyIQ gave Troy 91% before first serve.

ULMTroy
  • Break %+12.3 pts
    42.955.2

    53 of 96 on serve vs 33 of 77, so ULM's sideout was 44.8%.

  • Hitting+.126
    .080.206

    Kills and errors: 54–25 vs 34–24.

  • Longest run+3
    58

    Up 9–6 in the third set, Troy scored 8 straight to make it 17–6. Final score of the set: 25–19.

Troy above 50ULM belowMax swing 5.9%

ULMTroy

Aces
ULM 7·Troy 8
Serve err
ULM 10·Troy 10
Blocks
ULM 12·Troy 93 BS · 18 BA vs 1 BS · 16 BA
Digs
ULM 45·Troy 59

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Troy above 50 · ULM below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.9% LA MONrally 173 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.9% to ULM — set 2, LA MON 20-17 TROY. Kill by Abby Cunningham (set by Morgan Howard). TROY win probability 60% → 54%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

LA MON 11.0%89.0% TROY

ULM wins

3-0
1.5%
3-1
3.4%
3-2
6.1%

Troy wins

3-0
42.8%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
14.6%
LA MON break %
37.8% vs this opp
TROY break %
47.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Abby Cunningham (set by Morgan Howard)

    Set 2 · LA MON 20-17 TROY · LA MON 40% → 46%

  2. 02

    Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Kayla Baetzel)

    Set 2 · LA MON 20-20 TROY · TROY 63% → 69%

  3. 03

    Kill by Ashlynn Axtell (set by Madison Marx)

    Set 2 · LA MON 20-21 TROY · TROY 69% → 74%

  4. 04
    TroyAce+5.5%

    Troy ace on Eden Pietrzak

    Set 2 · LA MON 21-23 TROY · TROY 75% → 80%

  5. 05

    Olivia Kwiatkowski stuffed by Kenzie Behl & Tatum Clay

    Set 2 · LA MON 18-16 TROY · LA MON 33% → 39%

  6. 06

    Abby Cunningham stuffed by Kalina Calvillo & Ashlynn Axtell

    Set 2 · LA MON 20-19 TROY · TROY 57% → 63%

  7. 07

    Olivia Kwiatkowski stuffed by Tatum Clay & Kenzie Behl

    Set 2 · LA MON 17-16 TROY · LA MON 28% → 33%

  8. 08

    Aniya Hall stuffed by Ashlynn Axtell & Olivia Kwiatkowski

    Set 2 · LA MON 21-22 TROY · TROY 70% → 75%

Box score

Official NCAA box

ULMaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411740.1000113000012
46315.20002310153.511.5
48525.120100200219
46422.091001500217
4217.143000202446
4001.0001711500001
41412-.25000010052.53.5
4002.0002001710000
4000–1301500000
3000–033420003
1001.000000000000
Team totals3424125.080337104583181276
Troyhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413223.4780000016417
412432.25003370031.516.5
411932.0630002002112
46522.04513313402110
45113.30812082010.57.5
4001.0002301700000
47418.167000000218
4000–3011700000
4000–2101400000
2000–100000000
1000–001100000
Team totals5425141.20650810597116997

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

ULM vs Troy

Season series · Troy leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 LA MON · TROY 8

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 5 LA MONTROY 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 LA MONTROY 4

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 LA MONTROY 8

Set 4

11-25

Longest run 2 LA MONTROY 6

Bars above the line = Troy leads, below = ULM leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

ULM

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%9/21
33%4/12
2
50%8/16
20%2/10
3
53%8/15
50%8/16
4
30%6/20
50%8/16
5
75%6/8
60%9/15
6
38%6/16
25%2/8
All
45%43/96
43%33/77

Troy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%9/13
56%10/18
2
62%8/13
65%15/23
3
47%8/17
56%10/18
4
47%7/15
56%9/16
5
60%6/10
50%6/12
6
67%6/9
33%3/9
All
57%44/77
55%53/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

173 rallies

#LA MON-TROYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0TROYLA MONBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Tatum Clay, Abby Cunningham+0.8
21-1LA MONTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+0.8
32-1TROYLA MONKillTatum Clayset Morgan Howard+0.9
43-1LA MONLA MONAceULMaced Olivia Kwiatkowski+1.3
53-2LA MONTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.9
63-3TROYTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.2
74-3TROYLA MON×5KillTatum Clayset Morgan Howard+0.9
85-3LA MONLA MON×5KillAniya Hall+1.4
96-3LA MONLA MON×5KillAniya Hallset Morgan Howard+1.6
107-3LA MONLA MON×5Attack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+1.6
118-3LA MONLA MON×5AceULMaced Brooke Forkum+1.7
128-4LA MONTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.9
139-4TROYLA MON×3BlockedSophie Ocampoblk Zharia Alleyne+1.3
1410-4LA MONLA MON×3KillAniya Hallset Bre Perrin+1.6
1511-4LA MONLA MON×3BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Kenzie Behl, Zharia Alleyne+1.5
1611-5LA MONTROYBlockedKenzie Behlblk Isa Ruether, Sophie Ocampo+0.8
1711-6TROYTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.2
1812-6TROYLA MONKillAniya Hallset Bre Perrin+1.2
1912-7LA MONTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+0.9
2012-8TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.4
2113-8TROYLA MONBlockedSophie Ocampoblk Zharia Alleyne+1.4
2213-9LA MONTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.0
2313-10TROYTROYAttack errTatum Clay+1.6
2414-10TROYLA MONKillGrace Troxellset Bre Perrin+1.5
2514-11LA MONTROYServe errULM+1.1
2615-11TROYLA MONServe errTroy+1.5
2716-11LA MONLA MONAttack errKalina Calvillo+1.9
2816-12LA MONTROY×5Attack errAbby Cunningham+1.0
2916-13TROYTROY×5KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.7
3016-14TROYTROY×5KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.9
3116-15TROYTROY×5AceTroy+2.0
3216-16TROYTROY×5Attack errAniya Hall+2.0
3317-16TROYLA MONServe errTroy+1.7
3417-17LA MONTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.5
3517-18TROYTROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.1
3617-19TROYTROY×3KillSophie Ocampo+1.8
3718-19TROYLA MON×4Attack errBrooke Forkum+1.2
3819-19LA MONLA MON×4Attack errSophie Ocampo+2.3
3920-19LA MONLA MON×4Attack errIsa Ruether+2.9
4021-19LA MONLA MON×4Attack errSophie Ocampo+3.3
4121-20LA MONTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+1.9
4222-20TROYLA MONAttack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+2.8
4323-20LA MONLA MONBlockedIsa Ruetherblk Grace Troxell, Zharia Alleyne+3.4
4423-21LA MONTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.3
4524-21TROYLA MONServe errTroy+2.6
4624-22LA MONTROYAttack errAniya Hall+0.9
4725-22TROYLA MONServe errTroy+2.5
Set 2
11-0LA MONLA MONKillGrace Troxellset Morgan Howard+2.4
21-1LA MONTROYServe errULM+1.6
31-2TROYTROYAceTroy+2.1
42-2TROYLA MONKillAbby Cunninghamset Morgan Howard+1.6
52-3LA MONTROY×4KillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+1.5
62-4TROYTROY×4KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.9
72-5TROYTROY×4KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.6
82-6TROYTROY×4BlockedAniya Hallblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+1.3
93-6TROYLA MONKillAbby Cunninghamset Morgan Howard+0.9
103-7LA MONTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+0.9
114-7TROYLA MONKillKenzie Behlset Bre Perrin+1.0
125-7LA MONLA MONAttack errIsa Ruether+1.7
135-8LA MONTROYAttack errKenzie Behl+1.2
146-8TROYLA MONKillGrace Troxellset Bre Perrin+1.3
156-9LA MONTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.3
167-9TROYLA MONKillGrace Troxellset Eden Pietrzak+1.3
177-10LA MONTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Haley Nash+1.3
188-10TROYLA MONKillAbby Cunninghamset Morgan Howard+1.3
199-10LA MONLA MONAceULMaced Olivia Kwiatkowski+2.3
209-11LA MONTROYServe errULM+1.7
219-12TROYTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.0
2210-12TROYLA MONKillAbby Cunninghamset Morgan Howard+1.4
2310-13LA MONTROYServe errULM+1.5
2411-13TROYLA MON×4KillAniya Hallset Morgan Howard+1.5
2512-13LA MONLA MON×4Attack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+2.6
2613-13LA MONLA MON×4BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Zharia Alleyne, Kenzie Behl+3.3
2714-13LA MONLA MON×4KillZharia Alleyneset Bre Perrin+4.0
2814-14LA MONTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.6
2915-14TROYLA MONServe errTroy+3.1
3015-15LA MONTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.8
3115-16TROYTROYAttack errKenzie Behl+3.8
3216-16TROYLA MON×3KillGrace Troxellset Bre Perrin+2.9
3317-16LA MONLA MON×3BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Tatum Clay, Kenzie Behl+4.8
3418-16LA MONLA MON×3BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Kenzie Behl, Tatum Clay+5.4
3518-17LA MONTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+3.2
3619-17TROYLA MONKillTatum Clayset Bre Perrin+4.3
3720-17LA MONLA MONKillAbby Cunninghamset Morgan Howard+5.9
3820-18LA MONTROY×4KillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+3.0
3920-19TROYTROY×4BlockedAbby Cunninghamblk Kalina Calvillo, Ashlynn Axtell+5.3
4020-20TROYTROY×4KillKalina Calvilloset Kayla Baetzel+5.8
4120-21TROYTROY×4KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+5.8
4221-21TROYLA MONKillAbby Cunninghamset Morgan Howard+4.3
4321-22LA MONTROY×4BlockedAniya Hallblk Ashlynn Axtell, Olivia Kwiatkowski+4.6
4421-23TROYTROY×4AceTroyaced Eden Pietrzak+5.5
4521-24TROYTROY×4Attack errAbby Cunningham+3.3
4621-25TROYTROY×4AceTroy+1.1
Set 3
10-1TROYTROYAttack errTatum Clay+1.8
21-1TROYLA MON×3KillTatum Clayset Morgan Howard+1.4
32-1LA MONLA MON×3AceULMaced Olivia Kwiatkowski+2.2
43-1LA MONLA MON×3KillAbby Cunninghamset Morgan Howard+2.5
53-2LA MONTROY×6Serve errULM+1.6
63-3TROYTROY×6KillAshlynn Axtellset Aniya Hall+2.2
73-4TROYTROY×6BlockedAbby Cunninghamblk Isa Ruether, Ashlynn Axtell+2.0
83-5TROYTROY×6KillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+1.8
93-6TROYTROY×6AceTroy+1.5
103-7TROYTROY×6AceTroy+1.2
114-7TROYLA MONServe errTroy+0.9
125-7LA MONLA MONBlockedIsa Ruetherblk Abby Cunningham, Zharia Alleyne+1.5
135-8LA MONTROYServe errULM+1.1
145-9TROYTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.3
156-9TROYLA MONKillAniya Hallset Morgan Howard+0.9
166-10LA MONTROY×8KillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+0.9
176-11TROYTROY×8AceTroyaced Amelia Colon+1.0
186-12TROYTROY×8KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+0.8
196-13TROYTROY×8KillIsa Ruetherset Olivia Kwiatkowski+0.5
206-14TROYTROY×8Attack errAniya Hall+0.3
216-15TROYTROY×8Attack errKenzie Behl+0.2
226-16TROYTROY×8AceTroyaced Amelia Colon+0.1
236-17TROYTROY×8Bad setBre Perrin+0.1
247-17TROYLA MONKillAniya Hallset Eden Pietrzak·
258-17LA MONLA MONAceULMaced Olivia Kwiatkowski+0.1
268-18LA MONTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Brooke Forkum+0.1
279-18TROYLA MONServe errTroy·
289-19LA MONTROYAttack errGrace Troxell·
299-20TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx·
3010-20TROYLA MON×3KillTatum Clayset Bre Perrin·
3111-20LA MONLA MON×3KillAniya Hallset Morgan Howard·
3212-20LA MONLA MON×3AceULM+0.1
3312-21LA MONTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+0.1
3413-21TROYLA MONBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Grace Troxell, Tatum Clay·
3513-22LA MONTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx·
3614-22TROYLA MON×3KillAniya Hallset Morgan Howard·
3715-22LA MONLA MON×3AceULMaced Brooke Forkum·
3816-22LA MONLA MON×3Attack errIsa Ruether+0.1
3916-23LA MONTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.1
4016-24TROYTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+0.1
4117-24TROYLA MON×3KillAbby Cunninghamset Morgan Howard·
4218-24LA MONLA MON×3KillAniya Hallset Bre Perrin·
4319-24LA MONLA MON×3Attack errIsa Ruether+0.1
4419-25LA MONTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+0.1
Set 4
10-1LA MONTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.9
21-1TROYLA MONKillAniya Hallset Abby Cunningham+1.0
31-2LA MONTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Haley Nash+1.0
42-2TROYLA MONServe errTroy+1.1
52-3LA MONTROYServe errULM+1.0
63-3TROYLA MONServe errTroy+1.1
73-4LA MONTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.0
83-5TROYTROYAttack errZharia Alleyne+1.3
94-5TROYLA MONKillGrace Troxellset Bre Perrin+1.0
105-5LA MONLA MONBlockedIsa Ruetherblk Kenzie Behl, Tatum Clay+1.6
115-6LA MONTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.1
125-7TROYTROYAttack errGrace Troxell+1.4
136-7TROYLA MONKillTatum Clayset Bre Perrin+1.0
146-8LA MONTROY×6KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.0
156-9TROYTROY×6Attack errAbby Cunningham+1.2
166-10TROYTROY×6Attack errGrace Troxell+1.0
176-11TROYTROY×6BlockedGrace Troxellblk Olivia Kwiatkowski, Sophie Ocampo+0.8
186-12TROYTROY×6KillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+0.6
196-13TROYTROY×6KillSophie Ocampo+0.4
207-13TROYLA MONAttack errKalina Calvillo+0.2
217-14LA MONTROY×6Serve errULM+0.3
227-15TROYTROY×6BlockedTatum Clayblk Ashlynn Axtell+0.2
237-16TROYTROY×6KillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+0.1
247-17TROYTROY×6BlockedAniya Hallblk Ashlynn Axtell, Kalina Calvillo+0.1
257-18TROYTROY×6BlockedAniya Hallblk Ashlynn Axtell, Kalina Calvillo·
267-19TROYTROY×6KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx·
278-19TROYLA MONBlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Tatum Clay·
288-20LA MONTROYServe errULM·
299-20TROYLA MONServe errTroy·
309-21LA MONTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx·
3110-21TROYLA MONKillZharia Alleyneset Bre Perrin·
3211-21LA MONLA MONAttack errAshlynn Axtell·
3311-22LA MONTROY×4Serve errULM·
3411-23TROYTROY×4KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley·
3511-24TROYTROY×4KillIsa Ruetherset Haley Nash·
3611-25TROYTROY×4KillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley·

Score shown after each rally, ULM first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).