Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 22, 2026Watch on ESPN+

South Alabama def. Troy 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Troy 64.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 22, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

South Alabama won at Troy 3-1 (26-24, 25-17, 13-25, 25-19) on Thu, Oct 22, 2026. Sarah Gooch and Eva Dittmar led South Alabama with 9 kills each; Troy's Kalina Calvillo had a match-high 10.

Data through · final Oct 22

Set1234Sets
S ALA262513253
TROY241725191

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Elyse Heffner served 4 aces, and South Alabama needed every one.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are South Alabama's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, Troy was RallyIQ's 65% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · South Alabama 21–17 Troy

    6 straight Troy points turned a 17–21 deficit into a 23–21 lead. The match swung to Troy.

    South Alabama 53% → 26%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 1 · South Alabama 23–23 Troy

    South Alabama closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 26–24 and lead 1–0. The match swung to South Alabama.

    South Alabama 36% → 56%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · South Alabama 12–13 Troy

    South Alabama scored 4 straight to turn a 12–13 deficit into a 16–13 lead.

    South Alabama 64% → 85%

Troy above 50South Alabama belowMax swing 10.5%

South AlabamaTroy

Sideout %
South Alabama 54.7·Troy 52.3
Break %
South Alabama 47.7·Troy 45.3
Hitting
South Alabama .145·Troy .046
Longest run
South Alabama 5·Troy 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Troy above 50 · South Alabama below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.5% S ALArally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.5% to South Alabama — set 1, S ALA 26-24 TROY. Ace by Elyse Heffner. TROY win probability 54% → 44%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

S ALA 39.6%60.4% TROY

South Alabama wins

3-0
8.6%
3-1
14.4%
3-2
16.6%

Troy wins

3-0
17.4%
3-1
23.1%
3-2
19.9%
S ALA break %
40.6% vs this opp
TROY break %
42.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Elyse HeffnerAce+10.5%

    Ace by Elyse Heffner

    Set 1 · S ALA 26-24 TROY · S ALA 46% → 56%

  2. 02

    Ashlynn Axtell stuffed by Dalayla Blackwell

    Set 1 · S ALA 25-24 TROY · S ALA 36% → 46%

  3. 03

    Kalina Calvillo stuffed by Sarah Gooch & Dalayla Blackwell

    Set 1 · S ALA 23-23 TROY · S ALA 29% → 36%

  4. 04

    Kill by Olivia Kwiatkowski (set by Madison Marx)

    Set 1 · S ALA 23-24 TROY · TROY 64% → 71%

  5. 05

    Kill by Dalayla Blackwell (set by Anabelle Cerny)

    Set 1 · S ALA 24-24 TROY · S ALA 29% → 36%

  6. 06

    Kill by Ashlynn Axtell (set by Madison Marx)

    Set 1 · S ALA 21-22 TROY · TROY 62% → 68%

  7. 07
    Anabelle CernyBlock+5.8%

    Isa Ruether stuffed by Anabelle Cerny

    Set 4 · S ALA 15-13 TROY · S ALA 73% → 79%

  8. 08
    Alivia FreemanAttack error+5.8%

    Attack error by Alivia Freeman

    Set 1 · S ALA 21-23 TROY · TROY 68% → 74%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
47024.29200010296.513.5
47218.27804320052.513.5
49433.1521218102112
4128-.1253103150153.54.5
34514-.07100020031.55.5
3000–104520000
49429.17200010010.59.5
4000–1031820000
4000–000620000
3000–010100001
2125-.20000210111.52.5
2000–000200000
1000–200000000
Team totals3819131.1453671662104261789
Troyhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4101044.0000333002114
48424.16700010254.512.5
46523.0430201600219
45923-.17400000031.56.5
43419-.05301260031.55.5
4001.00020031300000
48116.43800000153.511.5
4000–1520500002
4000–122200002
4001.0002001920000
4000–000100000
Team totals4033151.0463810106673201385

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

South Alabama vs Troy

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 S ALA · TROY 6

Set 1

26-24

Longest run 4 S ALATROY 6

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 5 S ALATROY 5

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 2 S ALATROY 4

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 4 S ALATROY 4

Bars above the line = Troy leads, below = South Alabama leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

South Alabama

SlotSideout %Break %
1
36%9/25
36%4/11
2
69%9/13
50%9/18
3
67%8/12
64%14/22
4
57%8/14
33%4/12
5
58%7/12
42%5/12
6
60%6/10
46%6/13
All
55%47/86
48%42/88

Troy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%9/18
53%8/15
2
50%9/18
55%11/20
3
44%8/18
36%5/14
4
54%7/13
43%6/14
5
64%7/11
30%3/10
6
60%6/10
46%6/13
All
52%46/88
45%39/86

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#S ALA-TROYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+1.6
21-1TROYS ALAKillAlivia Freemanset Anabelle Cerny+1.7
31-2S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.7
42-2TROYS ALA×3Attack errIsa Ruether+1.7
53-2S ALAS ALA×3AceElyse Heffner+2.5
64-2S ALAS ALA×3BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Dalayla Blackwell, Anabelle Cerny+2.6
74-3S ALATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.8
85-3TROYS ALABlockedIsa Ruetherblk Anabelle Cerny, Dalayla Blackwell+1.9
95-4S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+1.8
105-5TROYTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.6
116-5TROYS ALAKillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+2.0
126-6S ALATROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.9
136-7TROYTROY×3BlockedSarah Goochblk Sophie Ocampo+2.7
146-8TROYTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Kenzly Foote+2.6
157-8TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+1.8
167-9S ALATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.9
177-10TROYTROYAttack errEva Dittmar+2.4
188-10TROYS ALAKillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+1.6
198-11S ALATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.8
209-11TROYS ALAAttack errKalina Calvillo+1.6
2110-11S ALAS ALAAttack errKalina Calvillo+2.7
2210-12S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.1
2310-13TROYTROYAceKalina Calvillo+2.6
2411-13TROYS ALA×4Serve errKalina Calvillo+1.7
2512-13S ALAS ALA×4Attack errIsa Ruether+2.9
2613-13S ALAS ALA×4KillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+3.3
2714-13S ALAS ALA×4KillSarah Gooch+3.6
2814-14S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+2.5
2915-14TROYS ALAAttack errBrooke Forkum+2.7
3016-14S ALAS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+3.9
3116-15S ALATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.5
3217-15TROYS ALAServe errTroy+2.9
3317-16S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+2.6
3418-16TROYS ALAKillAlivia Freemanset Anabelle Cerny+3.1
3519-16S ALAS ALABlockedKalina Calvilloblk Elyse Heffner, Alivia Freeman+4.0
3619-17S ALATROYBlockedElyse Heffnerblk Sophie Ocampo, Kalina Calvillo+2.2
3720-17TROYS ALAServe errTroy+3.0
3821-17S ALAS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+3.3
3921-18S ALATROY×6Serve errSouth Alabama+1.5
4021-19TROYTROY×6Attack errSarah Gooch+3.1
4121-20TROYTROY×6KillKalina Calvillo+4.4
4221-21TROYTROY×6Attack errAlivia Freeman+5.6
4321-22TROYTROY×6KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+6.3
4421-23TROYTROY×6Attack errAlivia Freeman+5.8
4522-23TROYS ALAAttack errBrooke Forkum+3.0
4623-23S ALAS ALABlockedKalina Calvilloblk Sarah Gooch, Dalayla Blackwell+7.1
4723-24S ALATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+6.7
4824-24TROYS ALA×3KillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+6.7
4925-24S ALAS ALA×3BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Dalayla Blackwell+9.8
5026-24S ALAS ALA×3AceElyse Heffner+10.5
Set 2
11-0TROYS ALAServe errTroy+2.1
22-0S ALAS ALAKillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+3.0
32-1S ALATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+2.0
43-1TROYS ALAKillAnabelle Cerny+2.2
53-2S ALATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+2.0
64-2TROYS ALAAttack errKalina Calvillo+2.2
74-3S ALATROYBlockedEva Dittmarblk Brooke Forkum, Ashlynn Axtell+2.1
85-3TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+2.3
96-3S ALAS ALABlockedKalina Calvilloblk Elyse Heffner, Alivia Freeman+3.1
106-4S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+2.0
117-4TROYS ALAServe errTroy+2.3
127-5S ALATROYBlockedSarah Goochblk Sophie Ocampo, Kalina Calvillo+2.1
138-5TROYS ALA×3KillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+2.4
149-5S ALAS ALA×3Attack errIsa Ruether+3.1
1510-5S ALAS ALA×3Attack errIsa Ruether+2.9
1610-6S ALATROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.7
1710-7TROYTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Haley Nash+2.7
1810-8TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Anabelle Cerny+3.1
1911-8TROYS ALA×4Serve errTroy+2.6
2012-8S ALAS ALA×4AceElyse Heffner+3.3
2113-8S ALAS ALA×4Attack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+2.9
2214-8S ALAS ALA×4BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Sarah Gooch, Dalayla Blackwell+2.5
2314-9S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+1.3
2414-10TROYTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.3
2515-10TROYS ALA×4BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Dalayla Blackwell+2.2
2616-10S ALAS ALA×4BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Dalayla Blackwell, Anabelle Cerny+2.4
2717-10S ALAS ALA×4Bad setIsa Ruether+1.8
2818-10S ALAS ALA×4BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Eva Dittmar, Dalayla Blackwell+1.2
2918-11S ALATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+0.5
3018-12TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.0
3119-12TROYS ALAServe errTroy+1.1
3220-12S ALAS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+0.9
3320-13S ALATROY×5KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.3
3420-14TROYTROY×5KillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+0.7
3520-15TROYTROY×5BlockedEva Dittmarblk Sophie Ocampo, Brooke Forkum+1.1
3620-16TROYTROY×5AceJosephine Hensleyaced Preslee Thompson+1.8
3720-17TROYTROY×5BlockedEva Dittmarblk Sophie Ocampo, Brooke Forkum+2.6
3821-17TROYS ALA×5KillAlivia Freemanset Anabelle Cerny+2.8
3922-17S ALAS ALA×5BlockedKalina Calvilloblk Alivia Freeman, Elyse Heffner+2.6
4023-17S ALAS ALA×5Attack errKalina Calvillo+1.3
4124-17S ALAS ALA×5KillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+0.5
4225-17S ALAS ALA×5Attack errSophie Ocampo+0.1
Set 3
11-0S ALAS ALAKillElyse Heffnerset Sarah Gooch+2.2
21-1S ALATROY×4Serve errSouth Alabama+1.5
31-2TROYTROY×4BlockedAlivia Freemanblk Ashlynn Axtell+2.1
41-3TROYTROY×4BlockedAlivia Freemanblk Isa Ruether+2.1
51-4TROYTROY×4AceOlivia Kwiatkowskiaced Addison Hurst+1.9
62-4TROYS ALAKillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+1.3
72-5S ALATROYKillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+1.4
83-5TROYS ALAServe errTroy+1.3
93-6S ALATROYKillBrooke Forkumset Haley Nash+1.4
103-7TROYTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+1.8
114-7TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+1.2
124-8S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.3
134-9TROYTROYAceBrooke Forkum+1.6
145-9TROYS ALAKillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+1.0
155-10S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.1
166-10TROYS ALAServe errTroy+1.0
177-10S ALAS ALAKillEva Dittmar+1.7
187-11S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+1.4
198-11TROYS ALAKillAlivia Freemanset Anabelle Cerny+1.2
208-12S ALATROY×3Serve errSouth Alabama+1.4
218-13TROYTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.6
228-14TROYTROY×3AceOlivia Kwiatkowski+1.2
239-14TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+0.7
249-15S ALATROY×3BlockedSarah Goochblk Isa Ruether, Ashlynn Axtell+0.9
259-16TROYTROY×3KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+0.9
269-17TROYTROY×3AceKenzly Footeaced Kathryn O'Toole+0.6
2710-17TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+0.2
2810-18S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+0.4
2910-19TROYTROYAceJosephine Hensleyaced Kathryn O'Toole+0.3
3011-19TROYS ALAKillDalayla Blackwellset Halle Norvell+0.1
3111-20S ALATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+0.2
3212-20TROYS ALAKillAlexa Strandbergset Halle Norvell+0.1
3312-21S ALATROY×3Serve errSouth Alabama+0.1
3412-22TROYTROY×3AceKalina Calvilloaced Sarah Gooch+0.1
3512-23TROYTROY×3BlockedAlexa Strandbergblk Sophie Ocampo, Olivia Kwiatkowski·
3613-23TROYS ALAServe errKalina Calvillo·
3713-24S ALATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley·
3813-25TROYTROYAttack errAlivia Freeman·
Set 4
10-1TROYTROY×4BlockedAlexa Strandbergblk Ashlynn Axtell+3.6
20-2TROYTROY×4KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+3.5
30-3TROYTROY×4KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+3.3
40-4TROYTROY×4BlockedElyse Heffnerblk Ashlynn Axtell, Olivia Kwiatkowski+3.0
51-4TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+2.0
61-5S ALATROYBlockedAnabelle Cernyblk Isa Ruether, Ashlynn Axtell+2.1
72-5TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+2.0
83-5S ALAS ALAAceSarah Goochaced Haley Nash+3.2
93-6S ALATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+2.5
103-7TROYTROYAceKenzly Footeaced Preslee Thompson+3.1
114-7TROYS ALA×3Attack errKalina Calvillo+2.0
125-7S ALAS ALA×3BlockedKalina Calvilloblk Anabelle Cerny, Dalayla Blackwell+3.3
136-7S ALAS ALA×3Attack errBrooke Forkum+3.8
146-8S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+2.9
157-8TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+2.8
167-9S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+3.0
178-9TROYS ALA×4KillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+2.9
189-9S ALAS ALA×4Attack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+4.5
1910-9S ALAS ALA×4KillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+4.9
2011-9S ALAS ALA×4BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Dalayla Blackwell, Elyse Heffner+5.0
2111-10S ALATROY×3KillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+3.3
2211-11TROYTROY×3AceKalina Calvilloaced Addison Hurst+4.9
2311-12TROYTROY×3Attack errAnabelle Cerny+5.0
2412-12TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+3.6
2512-13S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+3.7
2613-13TROYS ALA×4Serve errTroy+3.8
2714-13S ALAS ALA×4BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Alexa Strandberg+5.7
2815-13S ALAS ALA×4BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Anabelle Cerny+5.8
2916-13S ALAS ALA×4AceElyse Heffner+5.6
3016-14S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+3.4
3117-14TROYS ALA×4KillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+4.2
3218-14S ALAS ALA×4AceSarah Goochaced Haley Nash+5.1
3319-14S ALAS ALA×4KillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+4.0
3420-14S ALAS ALA×4BlockedBrooke Forkumblk Alexa Strandberg, Anabelle Cerny+2.7
3520-15S ALATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.1
3621-15TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Addison Hurst+1.8
3721-16S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+0.9
3822-16TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+1.6
3922-17S ALATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+0.7
4022-18TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.7
4123-18TROYS ALAKillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+2.2
4224-18S ALAS ALAAceMarissa Taix+1.2
4324-19S ALATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+0.2
4425-19TROYS ALABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Elyse Heffner, Dalayla Blackwell+0.4

Score shown after each rally, South Alabama first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).