Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Troy def. South Alabama 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Troy 62.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Troy beat visiting South Alabama 3-2 (17-25, 25-16, 15-25, 25-20, 15-10) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Olivia Kwiatkowski led Troy with 14 kills; South Alabama's Eva Dittmar had a match-high 20.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set12345Sets
S ALA25162520102
TROY17251525153

Match story · from the official box score

4 aces from Kalina Calvillo, and Troy needed each of them.

Told from the official box score only: NCAA’s play-by-play for this match doesn’t reproduce the official result, so there’s no win-probability story. RallyIQ gave Troy 62% before first serve.

No single phase cleared the thresholds (8 pts of break %, .080 of hitting, a 5-point run).

South AlabamaTroy

Hitting
South Alabama .237·Troy .169
Aces
South Alabama 6·Troy 9
Serve err
South Alabama 14·Troy 11
Blocks
South Alabama 19·Troy 33 BS · 32 BA vs 0 BS · 6 BA
Digs
South Alabama 55·Troy 63

Win probability

Troy above 50 · South Alabama below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+14.6% TROYrally 192 · set 5

Biggest swing: 14.6% to Troy — set 5, S ALA 10-12 TROY. Attack error by Eva Dittmar. TROY win probability 67% → 81%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

S ALA 39.6%60.4% TROY

South Alabama wins

3-0
8.6%
3-1
14.4%
3-2
16.6%

Troy wins

3-0
17.4%
3-1
23.1%
3-2
19.9%
S ALA break %
40.6% vs this opp
TROY break %
42.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Eva DittmarAttack error+14.6%

    Attack error by Eva Dittmar

    Set 5 · S ALA 10-12 TROY · TROY 67% → 81%

  2. 02
    Isa RuetherAttack error+13.8%

    Attack error by Isa Ruether

    Set 5 · S ALA 10-10 TROY · S ALA 31% → 44%

  3. 03
    Sophie OcampoKill+12.8%

    Kill by Sophie Ocampo (set by Josephine Hensley)

    Set 5 · S ALA 8-9 TROY · TROY 52% → 65%

  4. 04
    Eva DittmarKill+12.4%

    Kill by Eva Dittmar (set by Anabelle Cerny)

    Set 5 · S ALA 8-7 TROY · S ALA 44% → 57%

  5. 05
    Isa RuetherKill+12.2%

    Kill by Isa Ruether (set by Josephine Hensley)

    Set 5 · S ALA 8-10 TROY · TROY 65% → 77%

  6. 06
    Sophie OcampoKill+11.2%

    Kill by Sophie Ocampo (set by Josephine Hensley)

    Set 5 · S ALA 10-11 TROY · TROY 56% → 67%

  7. 07

    Kill by Alexa Strandberg (set by Anabelle Cerny)

    Set 5 · S ALA 7-7 TROY · S ALA 33% → 44%

  8. 08
    Sophie OcampoKill+11.1%

    Kill by Sophie Ocampo (set by Josephine Hensley)

    Set 5 · S ALA 10-13 TROY · TROY 81% → 92%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513136.33310110000013
56217.23500010112713
55217.176001400849
52210.00040231700637
5000–013600001
2235-.20002100111.55.5
520750.2600002002121
5000–5041220000
4000–000120000
3204.50001010132.55.5
3000–000130000
3000–001000000
Team totals5017139.237466145593321996
Troyhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514841.14601211000015
510232.2500412000014
512831.12910030010.512.5
510217.4710001000010
54622-.091114220216
5000–2313700001
56317.17610000031.57.5
5000–2120700002
5000–2002120000
5000–101700000
5000–000200000
Team totals5629160.1695091163606397

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

South Alabama vs Troy

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 S ALA · TROY 6

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 4 S ALATROY 3

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 2 S ALATROY 6

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 5 S ALATROY 3

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 5 S ALATROY 4

Set 5

10-15

Longest run 3 S ALATROY 5

Bars above the line = Troy leads, below = South Alabama leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

South Alabama

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
54%7/13
2
70%7/10
42%5/12
3
50%7/14
30%3/10
4
64%7/11
36%4/11
5
64%7/11
50%7/14
6
40%6/15
53%8/15
All
58%42/73
45%34/75

Troy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%8/11
27%3/11
2
58%7/12
42%5/12
3
70%7/10
13%1/8
4
47%7/15
50%7/14
5
50%7/14
50%7/14
6
38%5/13
57%8/14
All
55%41/75
42%31/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

192 rallies

#S ALA-TROYSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+1.8
21-1S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+1.7
32-1TROYS ALA×4KillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+1.8
43-1S ALAS ALA×4KillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+2.6
54-1S ALAS ALA×4AceSouth Alabamaaced Brooke Forkum+2.5
65-1S ALAS ALA×4AceSouth Alabama+2.4
75-2S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+1.6
86-2TROYS ALABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Dalayla Blackwell, Elyse Heffner+1.8
97-2S ALAS ALABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Dalayla Blackwell, Anabelle Cerny+2.3
107-3S ALATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.4
117-4TROYTROYAttack errDalayla Blackwell+2.2
128-4TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+1.9
138-5S ALATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.6
149-5TROYS ALAAttack errIsa Ruether+1.9
1510-5S ALAS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+2.4
1610-6S ALATROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.4
1710-7TROYTROY×3Attack errAlivia Freeman+2.3
1810-8TROYTROY×3BlockedAlivia Freemanblk Sophie Ocampo, Brooke Forkum+2.6
1911-8TROYS ALA×3BlockedBrooke Forkumblk Anabelle Cerny, Alivia Freeman+2.2
2012-8S ALAS ALA×3KillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+2.8
2113-8S ALAS ALA×3KillEva Dittmarset Addison Hurst+2.5
2213-9S ALATROY×3Serve errSouth Alabama+1.4
2313-10TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.4
2413-11TROYTROY×3Attack errEva Dittmar+2.8
2514-11TROYS ALAServe errTroy+2.4
2614-12S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.1
2715-12TROYS ALAServe errTroy+2.5
2815-13S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+2.1
2916-13TROYS ALAServe errTroy+2.6
3016-14S ALATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+2.1
3117-14TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+2.7
3218-14S ALAS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+3.2
3318-15S ALATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.7
3419-15TROYS ALABlockedSophie Ocampoblk Dalayla Blackwell+2.4
3519-16S ALATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.7
3620-16TROYS ALA×3KillAnabelle Cernyset Addison Hurst+2.4
3721-16S ALAS ALA×3KillEva Dittmarset Addison Hurst+2.3
3822-16S ALAS ALA×3AceSouth Alabamaaced Haley Nash+1.4
3922-17S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+0.4
4023-17TROYS ALA×3KillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+0.8
4124-17S ALAS ALA×3KillSarah Goochset Addison Hurst+0.4
4225-17S ALAS ALA×3BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Alivia Freeman+0.1
Set 2
10-1S ALATROY×3KillAshlynn Axtell+1.9
20-2TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtell+2.6
30-3TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.4
41-3TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+1.7
52-3S ALAS ALAKillAnabelle Cernyset Sarah Gooch+2.6
62-4S ALATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.0
73-4TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+1.9
83-5S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.0
93-6TROYTROYAttack errDalayla Blackwell+2.6
104-6TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+1.8
114-7S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+1.9
125-7TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+1.8
135-8S ALATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.0
146-8TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Addison Hurst+1.9
157-8S ALAS ALAKillAlivia Freemanset Anabelle Cerny+2.9
167-9S ALATROYKillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+2.2
178-9TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+2.2
188-10S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+2.3
199-10TROYS ALAKillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+2.2
2010-10S ALAS ALAAttack errBrooke Forkum+3.4
2110-11S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.5
2211-11TROYS ALAServe errTroy+2.6
2311-12S ALATROY×6KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.6
2411-13TROYTROY×6KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+3.5
2511-14TROYTROY×6KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Kayla Baetzel+3.2
2611-15TROYTROY×6AceTroyaced Preslee Thompson+2.7
2711-16TROYTROY×6KillOlivia Kwiatkowski+2.2
2811-17TROYTROY×6KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Isa Ruether+1.6
2912-17TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+0.8
3013-17S ALAS ALAKillAlivia Freeman+1.6
3113-18S ALATROY×4KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.6
3213-19TROYTROY×4Attack errEva Dittmar+1.5
3313-20TROYTROY×4AceTroyaced Preslee Thompson+0.9
3413-21TROYTROY×4KillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+0.4
3514-21TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+0.1
3614-22S ALATROYAttack errAlivia Freeman+0.3
3715-22TROYS ALAAttack errBrooke Forkum+0.1
3815-23S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+0.2
3915-24TROYTROYBlockedElyse Heffnerblk Brooke Forkum, Sophie Ocampo+0.1
4016-24TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Josephine Hensley·
4116-25S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Brooke Forkum·
Set 3
11-0TROYS ALAKillSarah Gooch+2.4
22-0S ALAS ALAAceSouth Alabamaaced Brooke Forkum+3.4
32-1S ALATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.3
43-1TROYS ALABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Elyse Heffner, Dalayla Blackwell+2.5
53-2S ALATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.4
64-2TROYS ALAKillElyse Heffnerset Anabelle Cerny+2.6
74-3S ALATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+2.4
85-3TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+2.7
96-3S ALAS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+3.6
106-4S ALATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.4
117-4TROYS ALAKillAlexa Strandbergset Anabelle Cerny+2.7
128-4S ALAS ALABlockedBrooke Forkumblk Anabelle Cerny, Dalayla Blackwell+3.5
138-5S ALATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.2
148-6TROYTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Eva Dittmar+3.4
159-6TROYS ALA×3KillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+2.8
1610-6S ALAS ALA×3BlockedKalina Calvilloblk Elyse Heffner, Dalayla Blackwell+3.6
1711-6S ALAS ALA×3AceSouth Alabamaaced Haley Nash+3.3
1811-7S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+1.9
1912-7TROYS ALAServe errTroy+2.4
2012-8S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+1.9
2113-8TROYS ALAKillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+2.4
2213-9S ALATROYServe errSouth Alabama+1.9
2314-9TROYS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+2.5
2414-10S ALATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.9
2515-10TROYS ALA×4BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Alexa Strandberg, Anabelle Cerny+2.5
2616-10S ALAS ALA×4Attack errIsa Ruether+2.7
2717-10S ALAS ALA×4KillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+2.0
2818-10S ALAS ALA×4BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Alexa Strandberg, Eva Dittmar+1.3
2918-11S ALATROY×3Attack errEva Dittmar+0.5
3018-12TROYTROY×3BlockedEva Dittmarblk Isa Ruether, Sophie Ocampo+1.1
3118-13TROYTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Haley Nash+1.7
3219-13TROYS ALA×5Attack errIsa Ruether+1.8
3320-13S ALAS ALA×5BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Dalayla Blackwell, Eva Dittmar+1.6
3421-13S ALAS ALA×5BlockedBrooke Forkumblk Anabelle Cerny, Dalayla Blackwell+0.8
3522-13S ALAS ALA×5KillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+0.4
3623-13S ALAS ALA×5AceAlexa Strandberg+0.1
3723-14S ALATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley·
3823-15TROYTROYAttack errEva Dittmar+0.1
3924-15TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+0.1
4025-15S ALAS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny·
Set 4
10-1S ALATROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.6
21-1TROYS ALAAttack errBrooke Forkum+2.7
31-2S ALATROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.6
42-2TROYS ALAServe errBrooke Forkum+2.7
52-3S ALATROY×4KillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.7
62-4TROYTROY×4KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+3.6
72-5TROYTROY×4AceTroyaced Marissa Taix+3.4
82-6TROYTROY×4AceTroyaced Marissa Taix+3.1
93-6TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+2.0
103-7S ALATROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+2.3
113-8TROYTROY×3Bad setMarissa Taix+2.7
123-9TROYTROY×3AceTroyaced Marissa Taix+2.2
134-9TROYS ALABlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Anabelle Cerny, Dalayla Blackwell+1.4
144-10S ALATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.6
154-11TROYTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.8
165-11TROYS ALAServe errOlivia Kwiatkowski+1.0
175-12S ALATROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.3
186-12TROYS ALAKillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+1.0
196-13S ALATROYServe errAddison Hurst+1.2
206-14TROYTROYAttack errAnabelle Cerny+1.2
217-14TROYS ALAServe errMadison Marx+0.6
228-14S ALAS ALAKillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+1.2
238-15S ALATROYServe errElyse Heffner+1.2
248-16TROYTROYAceBrooke Forkumaced Addison Hurst+1.1
259-16TROYS ALAServe errBrooke Forkum+0.5
2610-16S ALAS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Madison Marx+1.1
2710-17S ALATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.1
2810-18TROYTROYAttack errAnabelle Cerny+0.9
2911-18TROYS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+0.4
3012-18S ALAS ALAKillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+0.9
3112-19TROY
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.9
3213-19TROYS ALA×5KillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+0.6
3314-19S ALAS ALA×5BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Elyse Heffner, Dalayla Blackwell+1.2
3415-19S ALAS ALA×5BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Elyse Heffner, Dalayla Blackwell+1.9
3516-19S ALAS ALA×5KillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+2.9
3617-19S ALAS ALA×5BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Elyse Heffner, Dalayla Blackwell+4.1
3717-20S ALATROY×3Serve errAnabelle Cerny+3.9
3817-21TROYTROY×3AceTroyaced Addison Hurst+4.0
3917-22TROYTROY×3KillBrooke Forkumset Sophie Ocampo+2.5
4018-22TROYS ALAAttack errSophie Ocampo+0.9
4119-22S ALAS ALAKillDalayla Blackwellset Anabelle Cerny+2.2
4219-23S ALATROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.7
4320-23TROYS ALAAttack errSophie Ocampo+1.3
4420-24S ALATROYServe errAddison Hurst+2.2
Set 5
11-0TROYS ALABlockedKalina Calvilloblk Elyse Heffner, Dalayla Blackwell+6.5
21-1S ALATROY×4KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+6.3
31-2TROYTROY×4KillKalina Calvilloset Haley Nash+8.8
41-3TROYTROY×4Attack errElyse Heffner+8.5
51-4TROYTROY×4KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+7.7
62-4TROYS ALAServe errMadison Marx+5.0
72-5S ALATROYAttack errSarah Gooch+5.8
82-6TROYTROYAceTroy+6.7
93-6TROYS ALA×3BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Alexa Strandberg, Elyse Heffner+4.0
104-6S ALAS ALA×3BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Alexa Strandberg+7.2
115-6S ALAS ALA×3Attack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+8.9
125-7S ALATROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+7.3
136-7TROYS ALA×3KillSarah Goochset Anabelle Cerny+6.8
147-7S ALAS ALA×3KillAlexa Strandbergset Anabelle Cerny+11.1
158-7S ALAS ALA×3KillEva Dittmarset Anabelle Cerny+12.4
168-8S ALATROY×3Serve errSarah Gooch+8.7
178-9TROYTROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+12.8
188-10TROYTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+12.2
199-10TROYS ALAServe errOlivia Kwiatkowski+7.8
2010-10S ALAS ALAAttack errIsa Ruether+13.8
2110-11S ALATROY×5KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+11.2
2210-12TROYTROY×5Attack errEva Dittmar+14.6
2310-13TROYTROY×5KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+11.1
2410-14TROYTROY×5Attack errEva Dittmar+6.0
2510-15TROYTROY×5KillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+1.7

Score shown after each rally, South Alabama first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).