Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 31, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Arkansas St. def. Troy 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Arkansas St. 88.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 31, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Arkansas St. beat visiting Troy 3-2 (25-18, 23-25, 25-18, 23-25, 15-9) on Sat, Oct 31, 2026. Arkansas St.'s Devyn Lewis led with 22 kills, and Mia Maloney added 18 digs.

Data through · final Oct 31

Set12345Sets
TROY1825182592
ARK ST25232523153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Erin Madigan had 54 assists, and Arkansas St. outlasted Troy.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Arkansas St.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Arkansas St. 88% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Troy 22–22 Arkansas St.

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Troy, enough to take the set 25–23 and level the match at 2–2.

    Arkansas St. 87% → 69%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Troy 3–2 Arkansas St.

    Arkansas St. scored 4 straight to turn a 2–3 deficit into a 6–3 lead.

    Arkansas St. 61% → 88%

Arkansas St. above 50Troy belowMax swing 8.9%

TroyArkansas St.

Sideout %
Troy 57.7·Arkansas St. 67.4
Break %
Troy 32.6·Arkansas St. 42.3
Hitting
Troy .139·Arkansas St. .240
Longest run
Troy 3·Arkansas St. 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Arkansas St. above 50 · Troy below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+8.9% TROYrally 206 · set 5

Biggest swing: 8.9% to Troy — set 4, TROY 25-23 ARK ST. Kill by Brooke Forkum (set by Josephine Hensley). ARK ST win probability 77% → 69%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TROY 12.0%88.0% ARK ST

Troy wins

3-0
1.7%
3-1
3.7%
3-2
6.6%

Arkansas St. wins

3-0
41.2%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.2%
TROY break %
36.5% vs this opp
ARK ST break %
45.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Brooke ForkumKill+8.9%

    Kill by Brooke Forkum (set by Josephine Hensley)

    Set 4 · TROY 25-23 ARK ST · TROY 23% → 31%

  2. 02

    Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Madison Marx)

    Set 5 · TROY 2-1 ARK ST · TROY 30% → 38%

  3. 03

    Isa Ruether stuffed by Addison Collum & Calea Bush

    Set 5 · TROY 3-4 ARK ST · ARK ST 67% → 75%

  4. 04
    TroyService error+7.6%

    Troy service error

    Set 4 · TROY 24-22 ARK ST · TROY 18% → 25%

  5. 05
    Calea BushBlock+7.4%

    Ashlynn Axtell stuffed by Calea Bush

    Set 5 · TROY 3-5 ARK ST · ARK ST 75% → 82%

  6. 06

    Kalina Calvillo stuffed by Erin Madigan & Haley Glunz

    Set 5 · TROY 0-1 ARK ST · ARK ST 69% → 76%

  7. 07

    Kill by Kalina Calvillo (set by Kayla Baetzel)

    Set 5 · TROY 3-2 ARK ST · TROY 33% → 39%

  8. 08
    Calea BushBlock+6.1%

    Brooke Forkum stuffed by Calea Bush

    Set 5 · TROY 3-6 ARK ST · ARK ST 82% → 88%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Troyaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513431.2900000012215
510646.08701100111.512.5
59829.03401114310111
57627.03700040010.57.5
56322.1360011400217
5002.0002722800002
510323.3041002002111
5000–1122710001
5000–000000000
5000–2502600000
5000–001100000
Team totals5530180.1395451076438795
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
522848.2920004000022
516454.22220316112218
511316.5000000046718
59835.029002100153.512.5
54111.27354101400427
54010.40000150052.56.5
5001.0004201830002
5000–1121010001
2000–000100000
Team totals6624175.240614878562217111

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Troy vs Arkansas St.

Season series · Arkansas St. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 TROY · ARK ST 4

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 TROYARK ST 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 3 TROYARK ST 4

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 TROYARK ST 4

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 3 TROYARK ST 4

Set 5

9-15

Longest run 2 TROYARK ST 4

Bars above the line = Arkansas St. leads, below = Troy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Troy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%13/21
31%5/16
2
52%11/21
38%8/21
3
46%11/24
21%3/14
4
73%11/15
27%4/15
5
60%9/15
36%5/14
6
60%9/15
40%6/15
All
58%64/111
33%31/95

Arkansas St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
62%13/21
35%6/17
2
69%11/16
35%6/17
3
73%11/15
58%15/26
4
73%11/15
39%7/18
5
60%9/15
35%6/17
6
69%9/13
44%7/16
All
67%64/95
42%47/111

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

206 rallies

#TROY-ARK STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.0
22-0TROYTROYAttack errDevyn Lewis+1.5
32-1TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Mia Maloney+1.0
43-1ARK STTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.1
54-1TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowski+1.7
64-2TROYARK STAttack errIsa Ruether+1.0
74-3ARK STARK STKillHaley Glunzset Erin Madigan+1.5
85-3ARK STTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+1.2
95-4TROYARK ST×3KillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+1.0
105-5ARK STARK ST×3KillHaley Glunzset Erin Madigan+1.5
115-6ARK STARK ST×3KillErin Madiganset Kaitlin Whitlock+1.4
126-6ARK STTROY×3Serve errArkansas St.+1.0
137-6TROYTROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.6
148-6TROYTROY×3Attack errAddison Collum+1.8
158-7TROYARK STServe errTroy+1.2
169-7ARK STTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.4
179-8TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.2
189-9ARK STARK STKillCalea Bush+1.7
1910-9ARK STTROYBlockedErin Madiganblk Kalina Calvillo+1.3
2010-10TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.2
2111-10ARK STTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+1.4
2212-10TROYTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.1
2312-11TROYARK STKillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+1.3
2413-11ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.6
2513-12TROYARK ST×3Serve errTroy+1.4
2613-13ARK STARK ST×3Attack errIsa Ruether+2.0
2713-14ARK STARK ST×3AceArkansas St.aced Olivia Kwiatkowski+1.9
2814-14ARK STTROYAttack errKaitlin Whitlock+1.4
2914-15TROYARK STKillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+1.4
3015-15ARK STTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.5
3115-16TROYARK STAttack errSophie Ocampo+1.5
3215-17ARK STARK STAttack errSophie Ocampo+1.9
3316-17ARK STTROYAttack errAddison Collum+1.3
3416-18TROYARK ST×3Serve errTroy+1.4
3516-19ARK STARK ST×3KillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+1.6
3616-20ARK STARK ST×3BlockedSophie Ocampoblk Calea Bush+1.1
3717-20ARK STTROYServe errArkansas St.+0.6
3817-21TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+0.8
3917-22ARK STARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+0.6
4018-22ARK STTROYBlockedDevyn Lewisblk Ashlynn Axtell, Brooke Forkum+0.2
4118-23TROYARK ST×3KillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+0.4
4218-24ARK STARK ST×3AceArkansas St.aced Olivia Kwiatkowski+0.2
4318-25ARK STARK ST×3BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Calea Bush, Addison Collum·
Set 2
11-0TROYTROYAttack errDevyn Lewis+1.0
21-1TROYARK STKillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+0.6
31-2ARK STARK STKillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+0.8
42-2ARK STTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+0.6
52-3TROYARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+0.6
63-3ARK STTROYBad setLibby Gee-Weiler+0.7
73-4TROYARK STKillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+0.6
84-4ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.7
94-5TROYARK STAttack errIsa Ruether+0.6
105-5ARK STTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+0.7
115-6TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+0.7
126-6ARK STTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+0.7
137-6TROYTROYAceKayla Baetzelaced Kaitlin Whitlock+1.2
147-7TROYARK STKillErin Madiganset Mia Maloney+0.8
158-7ARK STTROY×3KillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+0.9
169-7TROYTROY×3Attack errDevyn Lewis+1.3
1710-7TROYTROY×3AceMadison Marxaced Mia Maloney+1.4
1810-8TROYARK STServe errMadison Marx+0.9
1910-9ARK STARK STBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Calea Bush, Addison Collum+1.3
2011-9ARK STTROY×3BlockedAddison Collumblk Ashlynn Axtell+1.1
2112-9TROYTROY×3Attack errAddison Collum+1.5
2213-9TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.5
2313-10TROYARK STBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Calea Bush, Kaitlin Whitlock+0.9
2413-11ARK STARK STAceArkansas St.aced Olivia Kwiatkowski+1.4
2514-11ARK STTROYBlockedKaitlin Whitlockblk Ashlynn Axtell, Kalina Calvillo+1.2
2614-12TROYARK STKillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+1.0
2715-12ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.3
2816-12TROYTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.7
2916-13TROYARK STKillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+0.9
3016-14ARK STARK STKillErin Madiganset Josephine Hensley+1.5
3117-14ARK STTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.4
3217-15TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.0
3318-15ARK STTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.4
3418-16TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Mia Maloney+1.1
3519-16ARK STTROYAttack errAddison Collum+1.5
3620-16TROYTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+1.9
3720-17TROYARK STAttack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+0.8
3821-17ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.4
3921-18TROYARK ST×4KillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+0.8
4021-19ARK STARK ST×4BlockedKalina Calvilloblk Haley Glunz, Kaitlin Whitlock+1.6
4121-20ARK STARK ST×4BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Haley Glunz, Addison Collum+2.1
4221-21ARK STARK ST×4KillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+2.5
4322-21ARK STTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.2
4423-21TROYTROYAceKalina Calvilloaced Libby Gee-Weiler+3.4
4523-22TROYARK STKillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+1.6
4624-22ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.9
4724-23TROYARK STBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Erin Madigan, Haley Glunz+1.5
4825-23ARK STTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+4.1
Set 3
11-0ARK STTROYAttack errDevyn Lewis+1.7
21-1TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.6
32-1ARK STTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+1.8
42-2TROYARK ST×4KillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.6
52-3ARK STARK ST×4KillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+2.2
62-4ARK STARK ST×4Attack errIsa Ruether+1.9
72-5ARK STARK ST×4KillDevyn Lewis+1.7
83-5ARK STTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.2
94-5TROYTROY×3BlockedDevyn Lewisblk Sophie Ocampo, Isa Ruether+2.0
105-5TROYTROY×3Attack errCalea Bush+2.4
115-6TROYARK STServe errTroy+1.6
125-7ARK STARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Libby Gee-Weiler+2.1
136-7ARK STTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.5
146-8TROYARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+1.5
157-8ARK STTROYAttack errAddison Collum+1.6
167-9TROYARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+1.6
177-10ARK STARK STKillHaley Glunzset Kayla Baetzel+2.0
188-10ARK STTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.3
199-10TROYTROYAceMadison Marxaced Mia Maloney+2.4
209-11TROYARK ST×4Serve errMadison Marx+1.7
219-12ARK STARK ST×4KillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+2.1
229-13ARK STARK ST×4KillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.7
239-14ARK STARK ST×4BlockedKalina Calvilloblk Haley Glunz, Erin Madigan+1.3
2410-14ARK STTROYServe errArkansas St.+0.7
2511-14TROYTROYAttack errDevyn Lewis+1.5
2611-15TROYARK STServe errTroy+1.2
2711-16ARK STARK STBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Calea Bush, Erin Madigan+1.3
2812-16ARK STTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+0.7
2912-17TROYARK STKillErin Madiganset Kaitlin Whitlock+0.9
3013-17ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.7
3113-18TROYARK STServe errTroy+0.9
3214-18ARK STTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+0.7
3314-19TROYARK ST×3BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Calea Bush+0.9
3414-20ARK STARK ST×3KillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+0.7
3514-21ARK STARK ST×3KillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+0.4
3615-21ARK STTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+0.1
3716-21TROYTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+0.4
3817-21TROYTROY×3KillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+0.7
3917-22TROYARK ST×3Serve errTroy+0.7
4017-23ARK STARK ST×3KillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+0.5
4117-24ARK STARK ST×3KillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+0.1
4218-24ARK STTROYServe errArkansas St.·
4318-25TROYARK STKillHaley Glunzset Erin Madigan·
Set 4
10-1TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.1
21-1ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.2
32-1TROYTROYAttack errCalea Bush+1.9
42-2TROYARK STKillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+1.2
52-3ARK STARK STAceArkansas St.aced Kayla Baetzel+1.6
63-3ARK STTROYAttack errAddison Collum+1.2
73-4TROYARK STAttack errKalina Calvillo+1.2
83-5ARK STARK STAttack errAshlynn Axtell+1.5
94-5ARK STTROYBlockedKaitlin Whitlockblk Olivia Kwiatkowski+1.1
104-6TROYARK STKillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+1.1
115-6ARK STTROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.1
126-6TROYTROY×3AceOlivia Kwiatkowskiaced Mia Maloney+1.9
137-6TROYTROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.2
147-7TROYARK STAttack errBrooke Forkum+1.4
158-7ARK STTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+1.6
169-7TROYTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Sophie Ocampo+2.5
179-8TROYARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+1.6
1810-8ARK STTROYServe errArkansas St.+1.9
1910-9TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Mia Maloney+1.6
2011-9ARK STTROYAttack errCalea Bush+2.0
2112-9TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+2.9
2212-10TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.7
2312-11ARK STARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+2.6
2413-11ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.2
2513-12TROYARK STKillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+1.8
2614-12ARK STTROYServe errArkansas St.+2.3
2714-13TROYARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+1.9
2815-13ARK STTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Josephine Hensley+2.4
2916-13TROYTROYBad setErin Madigan+3.4
3016-14TROYARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+1.9
3116-15ARK STARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+3.1
3217-15ARK STTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.7
3318-15TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+3.7
3418-16TROYARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+2.0
3519-16ARK STTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.9
3619-17TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+2.1
3720-17ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+3.0
3820-18TROYARK STKillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+2.1
3921-18ARK STTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+3.2
4022-18TROYTROYAttack errDevyn Lewis+3.6
4122-19TROYARK ST×4BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Addison Collum, Calea Bush+1.3
4222-20ARK STARK ST×4BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Kaitlin Whitlock+3.0
4322-21ARK STARK ST×4Attack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+4.3
4422-22ARK STARK ST×4Attack errIsa Ruether+5.5
4523-22ARK STTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+5.0
4624-22TROYTROYServe errTroy+7.6
4724-23TROYARK STKillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+2.9
4825-23ARK STTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+8.9
Set 5
10-1ARK STARK STBlockedKalina Calvilloblk Erin Madigan, Haley Glunz+7.2
21-1ARK STTROYServe errArkansas St.+5.4
32-1TROYTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Madison Marx+8.8
42-2TROYARK STServe errTroy+5.7
53-2ARK STTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Kayla Baetzel+6.7
63-3TROYARK ST×4KillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+6.0
73-4ARK STARK ST×4BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Addison Collum, Calea Bush+8.3
83-5ARK STARK ST×4BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Calea Bush+7.4
93-6ARK STARK ST×4BlockedBrooke Forkumblk Calea Bush+6.1
104-6ARK STTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+3.9
114-7TROYARK STKillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+4.3
125-7ARK STTROYServe errArkansas St.+4.0
135-8TROYARK ST×3KillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+4.5
145-9ARK STARK ST×3KillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+4.8
155-10ARK STARK ST×3Bad setJosephine Hensley+3.1
166-10ARK STTROYBlockedAddison Collumblk Sophie Ocampo, Brooke Forkum+1.4
177-10TROYTROYAttack errKaitlin Whitlock+3.4
187-11TROYARK STAttack errKaitlin Whitlock+3.3
198-11ARK STTROYKillKalina Calvilloset Josephine Hensley+2.3
208-12TROYARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+3.3
218-13ARK STARK STAttack errAshlynn Axtell+2.4
229-13ARK STTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.7
239-14TROYARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.2
249-15ARK STARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Troy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).