Final · 4 setsFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Coastal Carolina def. Troy 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Coastal Carolina 61.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Coastal Carolina beat visiting Troy 3-1 (25-12, 25-17, 22-25, 26-24) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Coastal Carolina's Anna Rita led with 16 kills, and Jonna Spohn added 23 digs.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set1234Sets
TROY121725241
CO CAR252522263

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Anna Rita hit .500 on 26 swings as Coastal Carolina edged Troy.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Coastal Carolina's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Coastal Carolina at 61%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Troy 16–14 Coastal Carolina

    Down 14–16, Coastal Carolina scored 8 straight to lead 22–16.

    Coastal Carolina 70% → 91%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Troy 24–22 Coastal Carolina

    4 of the last 4 rallies went to Coastal Carolina, enough to take the set 26–24 and win the match 3–1.

    Coastal Carolina 59% → >99%

Coastal Carolina above 50Troy belowMax swing 12.5%

TroyCoastal Carolina

Sideout %
Troy 45.4·Coastal Carolina 57.0
Break %
Troy 43.0·Coastal Carolina 54.6
Hitting
Troy .064·Coastal Carolina .250
Longest run
Troy 5·Coastal Carolina 8

Anna Rita
3 kills inside the turning points, 16 K and .500 for the match (23.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Coastal Carolina above 50 · Troy below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+12.5% CO CARrally 176 · set 4

Biggest swing: 12.5% to Coastal Carolina — set 4, TROY 24-24 CO CAR. Kill by Anna Rita (set by Isabella Loeswick). CO CAR win probability 64% → 77%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TROY 35.3%64.7% CO CAR

Troy wins

3-0
7.2%
3-1
12.7%
3-2
15.4%

Coastal Carolina wins

3-0
19.8%
3-1
24.8%
3-2
20.1%
TROY break %
41.0% vs this opp
CO CAR break %
43.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Anna RitaKill+12.5%

    Kill by Anna Rita (set by Isabella Loeswick)

    Set 4 · TROY 24-24 CO CAR · CO CAR 64% → 77%

  2. 02

    Brooke Forkum stuffed by Anna Rita & Isabella Loeswick

    Set 4 · TROY 24-25 CO CAR · CO CAR 77% → 89%

  3. 03
    Isa RuetherAttack error+11.3%

    Attack error by Isa Ruether

    Set 4 · TROY 24-26 CO CAR · CO CAR 89% → 100%

  4. 04
    Isa RuetherAttack error+5.4%

    Attack error by Isa Ruether

    Set 4 · TROY 24-23 CO CAR · CO CAR 59% → 64%

  5. 05

    Kill by Josephine Hensley (set by Brooke Forkum)

    Set 4 · TROY 15-12 CO CAR · TROY 29% → 33%

  6. 06

    Kill by Viara Parapunova (set by Abby Bucey)

    Set 4 · TROY 13-12 CO CAR · CO CAR 71% → 75%

  7. 07
    Kenzly FooteAce+3.8%

    Ace by Kenzly Foote on Abby Bucey

    Set 4 · TROY 16-12 CO CAR · TROY 33% → 37%

  8. 08
    Anna RitaKill+3.7%

    Kill by Anna Rita (set by Isabella Loeswick)

    Set 2 · TROY 16-17 CO CAR · CO CAR 76% → 79%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Troyaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412328.3210000002113
49933.00000030031.510.5
47727.000003610007
43627-.111120850005
4112.0002132600004
1001.000000100000
45415.067000000216
4000–030700003
4207.286130010010.52.5
4000–2111210001
3000–012000001
3000–000000000
Team totals3930140.0643710844908478
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416326.50002331195.523.5
412531.22603184010.515.5
414843.1401007002115
45215.20000010052.57.5
4204.500420270254.56.5
4213.333000101435
4000–0311100003
4000–4012300000
3001.000211030001
1011-1.000000000000
Team totals5120124.250499961104261798

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Troy vs Coastal Carolina

Season series · Coastal Carolina leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 TROY · CO CAR 8

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 3 TROYCO CAR 8

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 5 TROYCO CAR 8

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 3 TROYCO CAR 4

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 4 TROYCO CAR 6

Bars above the line = Coastal Carolina leads, below = Troy leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Troy

SlotSideout %Break %
1
44%7/16
40%4/10
2
46%6/13
22%2/9
3
28%5/18
45%5/11
4
44%4/9
44%4/9
5
36%4/11
50%4/8
6
57%4/7
50%4/8
All
41%30/74
42%23/55

Coastal Carolina

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%7/13
58%7/12
2
78%7/9
42%5/12
3
63%5/8
69%11/16
4
56%5/9
69%11/16
5
50%4/8
71%10/14
6
50%4/8
0%0/4
All
58%32/55
59%44/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

176 rallies

#TROY-CO CARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CO CARTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.8
21-1TROYCO CARAttack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+1.7
32-1CO CARTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+1.8
42-2TROYCO CAR×4KillAnzley Rinardset Jonna Spohn+1.8
52-3CO CARCO CAR×4KillAnzley Rinardset Jonna Spohn+2.5
62-4CO CARCO CAR×4AceJulia Riveraaced Brooke Forkum+2.4
72-5CO CARCO CAR×4AceJulia Rivera+2.3
83-5CO CARTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.5
93-6TROYCO CAR×3KillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+1.7
103-7CO CARCO CAR×3KillViara Parapunovaset Jonna Spohn+2.1
113-8CO CARCO CAR×3BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Anna Rita, Viara Parapunova+1.8
124-8CO CARTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+1.1
134-9TROYCO CAR×8KillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+1.3
144-10CO CARCO CAR×8BlockedBrooke Forkumblk Isabella Loeswick, Amarah Johnson+1.5
154-11CO CARCO CAR×8KillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+1.2
164-12CO CARCO CAR×8Attack errSophie Ocampo+0.9
174-13CO CARCO CAR×8BlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Amarah Johnson+0.6
184-14CO CARCO CAR×8Attack errBrooke Forkum+0.4
194-15CO CARCO CAR×8KillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+0.2
204-16CO CARCO CAR×8KillAmarah Johnsonset Isabella Loeswick+0.1
215-16CO CARTROYServe errAnna Rita+0.1
225-17TROYCO CARServe errKayla Baetzel+0.1
236-17CO CARTROYAttack errNatalie Hughes·
246-18TROYCO CAR×5KillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+0.1
256-19CO CARCO CAR×5AceViara Parapunovaaced Kayla Baetzel·
266-20CO CARCO CAR×5AceViara Parapunovaaced Brooke Forkum·
276-21CO CARCO CAR×5BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Natalie Hughes, Amarah Johnson·
286-22CO CARCO CAR×5Attack errAshlynn Axtell·
297-22CO CARTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx·
308-22TROYTROY×3Attack errAnzley Rinard·
319-22TROYTROY×3AceBrooke Forkum·
329-23TROYCO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Isabella Loeswick·
3310-23CO CARTROY×3Serve errJonna Spohn·
3411-23TROYTROY×3AceKenzly Footeaced Viara Parapunova·
3512-23TROYTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx·
3612-24TROYCO CARBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Natalie Hughes, Anna Rita·
3712-25CO CARCO CARAceJulia Riveraaced Olivia Kwiatkowski·
Set 2
11-0TROYTROYAceMadison Marxaced Viara Parapunova+2.2
21-1TROYCO CAR×3KillAmarah Johnsonset Isabella Loeswick+1.6
31-2CO CARCO CAR×3BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Natalie Hughes, Anna Rita+2.2
41-3CO CARCO CAR×3KillAnzley Rinardset Jonna Spohn+2.1
52-3CO CARTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.5
62-4TROYCO CARKillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+1.6
73-4CO CARTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.5
83-5TROYCO CARKillIsa Ruetherset Isabella Loeswick+1.6
93-6CO CARCO CARAttack errIsa Ruether+2.1
104-6CO CARTROYServe errAbby Bucey+1.4
114-7TROYCO CARKillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+1.5
124-8CO CARCO CARAceAnna Ritaaced Brooke Forkum+1.9
135-8CO CARTROY×5Serve errAnna Rita+1.2
146-8TROYTROY×5KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Jonna Spohn+2.0
157-8TROYTROY×5AceBrooke Forkumaced Abby Bucey+2.3
168-8TROYTROY×5Attack errAmarah Johnson+2.5
179-8TROYTROY×5BlockedViara Parapunovablk Josephine Hensley, Sophie Ocampo+2.7
189-9TROYCO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+1.9
1910-9CO CARTROYServe errIsabella Loeswick+2.0
2010-10TROYCO CARKillIsabella Loeswick+2.0
2111-10CO CARTROY×3Attack errNatalie Hughes+2.1
2212-10TROYTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+3.0
2313-10TROYTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Madison Marx+2.9
2413-11TROYCO CARKillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+1.8
2514-11CO CARTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.1
2614-12TROYCO CAR×3KillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+1.8
2714-13CO CARCO CAR×3KillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+2.9
2814-14CO CARCO CAR×3Attack errBrooke Forkum+3.2
2915-14CO CARTROYBlockedAnzley Rinardblk Ashlynn Axtell, Isa Ruether+2.5
3016-14TROYTROYAttack errAnzley Rinard+3.5
3116-15TROYCO CAR×8KillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+2.3
3216-16CO CARCO CAR×8BlockedBrooke Forkumblk Isabella Loeswick, Anna Rita+3.5
3316-17CO CARCO CAR×8KillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+3.7
3416-18CO CARCO CAR×8BlockedMadison Marxblk Isabella Loeswick+3.5
3516-19CO CARCO CAR×8KillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+3.1
3616-20CO CARCO CAR×8AceAbby Buceyaced Brooke Forkum+2.4
3716-21CO CARCO CAR×8Attack errIsa Ruether+1.6
3816-22CO CARCO CAR×8BlockedSophie Ocampoblk Isabella Loeswick, Anna Rita+0.9
3917-22CO CARTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Madison Marx+0.3
4017-23TROYCO CAR×3KillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+0.5
4117-24CO CARCO CAR×3KillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+0.2
4217-25CO CARCO CAR×3KillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick·
Set 3
10-1CO CAR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.3
21-1CO CARTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+0.9
31-2TROYCO CARServe errOlivia Kwiatkowski+0.9
41-3CO CARCO CARBlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Anzley Rinard, Anna Rita+1.2
52-3CO CARTROYAttack errAnna Rita+0.9
63-3TROYTROYBlockedAnzley Rinardblk Isa Ruether, Sophie Ocampo+1.3
73-4TROYCO CAR×4KillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+1.0
83-5CO CARCO CAR×4BlockedIsa Ruetherblk Anzley Rinard, Anna Rita+1.3
93-6CO CARCO CAR×4KillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+1.2
103-7CO CARCO CAR×4Attack errIsa Ruether+1.1
114-7CO CARTROYServe errJulia Rivera+0.7
124-8TROYCO CARKillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+0.8
135-8CO CARTROYAttack errSophie Ocampo+0.7
145-9TROYCO CARKillAnna Rita+0.8
156-9CO CARTROYKillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+0.7
166-10TROYCO CARServe errAddison Kersting+0.8
177-10CO CARTROY×3Serve errIsabella Loeswick+0.7
188-10TROYTROY×3KillIsa Ruetherset Kayla Baetzel+1.2
199-10TROYTROY×3Attack errViara Parapunova+1.4
209-11TROYCO CARServe errMadison Marx+1.1
2110-11CO CARTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Kayla Baetzel+1.1
2211-11TROYTROYAttack errAnzley Rinard+1.7
2311-12TROYCO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Isabella Loeswick+1.2
2412-12CO CARTROYAttack errViara Parapunova+1.2
2512-13TROYCO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Isabella Loeswick+1.3
2613-13CO CARTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Madison Marx+1.3
2714-13TROYTROYAttack errAnzley Rinard+1.9
2814-14TROYCO CAR×3KillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+1.4
2914-15CO CARCO CAR×3KillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+1.9
3014-16CO CARCO CAR×3KillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+1.9
3115-16CO CARTROYKillBrooke Forkumset Josephine Hensley+1.3
3216-16TROYTROYKillSophie Ocamposet Josephine Hensley+2.0
3316-17TROYCO CAR×3KillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+1.6
3416-18CO CARCO CAR×3Attack errSophie Ocampo+2.1
3516-19CO CARCO CAR×3AceViara Parapunova+1.8
3617-19CO CARTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+1.1
3718-19TROYTROY×3KillJosephine Hensleyset Isabella Loeswick+2.0
3819-19TROYTROY×3Attack errViara Parapunova+2.5
3919-20TROYCO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+1.9
4020-20CO CARTROY×3KillAshlynn Axtellset Josephine Hensley+1.9
4121-20TROYTROY×3AceMadison Marx+3.1
4222-20TROYTROY×3AceMadison Marxaced Viara Parapunova+3.1
4322-21TROYCO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+1.8
4423-21CO CARTROYServe errViara Parapunova+2.6
4524-21TROYTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.6
4624-22TROYCO CARServe errOlivia Kwiatkowski+0.7
4725-22CO CARTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+1.7
Set 4
10-1TROYCO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Isabella Loeswick+2.1
21-1CO CARTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.2
31-2TROYCO CARKillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+2.2
42-2CO CARTROY×3BlockedAnzley Rinardblk Isa Ruether, Ashlynn Axtell+2.2
53-2TROYTROY×3AceKayla Baetzelaced Viara Parapunova+3.2
64-2TROYTROY×3KillSophie Ocamposet Madison Marx+3.3
74-3TROYCO CARKillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+2.2
85-3CO CARTROYKillMadison Marxset Kayla Baetzel+2.4
96-3TROYTROYAttack errAnna Rita+3.3
106-4TROYCO CARBlockedSophie Ocampoblk Isabella Loeswick+2.2
117-4CO CARTROYServe errAnna Rita+2.5
127-5TROYCO CARKillIsabella Loeswickset Abby Bucey+2.2
138-5CO CARTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.5
149-5TROYTROY×3Attack errViara Parapunova+3.3
1510-5TROYTROY×3AceAddison Kerstingaced Abby Bucey+2.9
1610-6TROYCO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+1.7
1710-7CO CARCO CARAceAnna Ritaaced Brooke Forkum+2.9
1811-7CO CARTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Josephine Hensley+2.5
1911-8TROYCO CARBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Amarah Johnson, Natalie Hughes+2.1
2011-9CO CARCO CARBlockedIsa Ruetherblk Natalie Hughes, Anna Rita+3.3
2112-9CO CARTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.8
2212-10TROYCO CARKillNatalie Hughesset Isabella Loeswick+2.4
2313-10CO CARTROYKillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+2.9
2413-11TROYCO CARAttack errOlivia Kwiatkowski+2.5
2513-12CO CARCO CARKillViara Parapunovaset Abby Bucey+3.9
2614-12CO CARTROY×4KillIsa Ruetherset Madison Marx+3.2
2715-12TROYTROY×4KillJosephine Hensleyset Brooke Forkum+4.2
2816-12TROYTROY×4AceKenzly Footeaced Abby Bucey+3.8
2917-12TROYTROY×4AceKenzly Footeaced Anna Rita+3.1
3017-13TROYCO CARKillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+1.6
3118-13CO CARTROYKillViara Parapunovaset Isabella Loeswick+2.2
3218-14TROYCO CARBlockedOlivia Kwiatkowskiblk Amarah Johnson, Isabella Loeswick+1.5
3319-14CO CARTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.2
3420-14TROYTROY×3KillOlivia Kwiatkowskiset Josephine Hensley+2.1
3521-14TROYTROY×3Attack errTalia Johnson+1.2
3621-15TROYCO CAR×3Serve errAddison Kersting+0.4
3721-16CO CARCO CAR×3KillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+1.0
3821-17CO CARCO CAR×3KillAnzley Rinardset Isabella Loeswick+1.6
3922-17CO CARTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Josephine Hensley+1.9
4023-17TROYTROYAttack errAnzley Rinard+1.3
4123-18TROYCO CAR×3Serve errMadison Marx+0.3
4223-19CO CARCO CAR×3BlockedAshlynn Axtellblk Anna Rita+0.9
4323-20CO CARCO CAR×3KillAnna Ritaset Anzley Rinard+1.7
4424-20CO CARTROYKillAshlynn Axtellset Madison Marx+2.5
4524-21TROYCO CAR×6Serve errOlivia Kwiatkowski+0.7
4624-22CO CARCO CAR×6Attack errBrooke Forkum+2.3
4724-23CO CARCO CAR×6Attack errIsa Ruether+5.4
4824-24CO CARCO CAR×6KillAnna Ritaset Isabella Loeswick+12.5
4924-25CO CARCO CAR×6BlockedBrooke Forkumblk Anna Rita, Isabella Loeswick+11.9
5024-26CO CARCO CAR×6Attack errIsa Ruether+11.3

Score shown after each rally, Troy first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).