FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayCUSA

3:0

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FIU def. Merrimack 3–0

(25-16, 25-19, 25-16)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
FIU	25	25	25	3
MERMCK	16	19	16	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MERMCK above 50 · FIU below

Biggest swing: 0.2% to Merrimack — set 1, FIU 3-4 MERMCK. Bad set by Marta Lazzarin. MERMCK win probability 1% → 1%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

FIU 98.9%1.1% MERMCK

FIU wins

3-0

72.9%

3-1

21.9%

3-2

4.1%

Merrimack wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.3%

3-2

0.8%

FIU break %: 55.9% vs this opp
MERMCK break %: 38.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Marta LazzarinBad set+0.2%
Bad set by Marta Lazzarin
Set 1 · FIU 3-4 MERMCK · MERMCK 1% → 1%
02
Jocelyn HammerstrandKill+0.2%
Kill by Jocelyn Hammerstrand (set by Sophia DeBonis)
Set 1 · FIU 0-1 MERMCK · MERMCK 1% → 1%
03
Marla ValentinKill+0.2%
Kill by Marla Valentin (set by Ivona Lazovic)
Set 1 · FIU 4-4 MERMCK · FIU 99% → 99%
04
Lana SesarKill+0.2%
Kill by Lana Sesar (set by Teodora Skocajic)
Set 1 · FIU 5-4 MERMCK · FIU 99% → 99%
05
Vaia TsioutsioulasKill+0.2%
Kill by Vaia Tsioutsioulas (set by Mckenna Shotwell)
Set 1 · FIU 3-3 MERMCK · MERMCK 1% → 1%
06
FIU serverService error+0.2%
FIU service error
Set 1 · FIU 2-2 MERMCK · MERMCK 1% → 1%
07
FIU serverService error+0.2%
FIU service error
Set 1 · FIU 12-10 MERMCK · MERMCK 1% → 1%
08
Chiara FabbriniAttack error+0.2%
Chiara Fabbrini stuffed by Maiella Blandin & Naomi Vajda
Set 1 · FIU 10-8 MERMCK · MERMCK 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

FIUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Marla ValentinOH	3	7	0	14	.500	0	4	1	3	0	0	2	1	12
13Teodora SkocajicMB	3	4	0	9	.444	1	0	1	1	0	0	4	2	6
17Kamryn ItzenMB	3	2	2	11	.000	1	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	5
1Ivona LazovicS	3	1	0	2	.500	16	2	3	3	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Jillian HuckabeyOH	2	6	2	17	.235	1	0	2	4	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Lana SesarOH	2	2	0	6	.333	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	1	4
8Chiara FabbriniOPP	3	11	3	20	.400	1	2	2	5	0	0	2	1	14
12Kindyl KilarOH	3	2	1	4	.250	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
7Marta LazzarinL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	2	3	9	2	0	0	0	2
18Tiyana CisseOPP	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
5Mariana SilvaS	1	1	0	1	1.000	4	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
10Mia GonzalezS	1	1	0	1	1.000	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		38	8	88	.341	34	11	14	36	4	1	16	9	75

Merrimackhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
10Mckenna ShotwellOH	3	6	6	26	.000	3	2	1	4	1	1	0.5	8.5
8Jocelyn HammerstrandOPP	3	6	3	17	.176	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6
3Sophia DeBonisS	3	2	0	2	1.000	6	1	0	11	0	0	0	3
1Naomi VajdaMB	3	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
13Mia IzzoMB	3	0	5	10	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
4Vaia TsioutsioulasOH	1	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
14Maiella Blandin	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	2	1	3	1.5	5.5
19Elizabeth KenneyS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	3	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
12Ella MaldonadoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	11	3	0	0	0
7Tamilore Afolalu	2	3	1	7	.286	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	3
20Devon Lowe	2	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	1
2Natalia Zelubowski	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Sienna Franks	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
15Gabrielle Moore	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Avry BryantOPP	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Maddy FennessyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		23	22	88	.011	20	4	3	37	11	8	4	51

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 FIU · MERMCK 3

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 5 FIUMERMCK 3

Set 2*

25-19

Longest run 6 FIUMERMCK 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 7 FIUMERMCK 3

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = FIU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

FIU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%4/7	50%2/4
2	57%4/7	56%5/9
3	80%4/5	60%6/10
4	100%4/4	60%6/10
5	43%3/7	73%8/11
6	75%3/4	25%1/4
All	65%22/34	58%28/48

Merrimack

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%4/9	43%3/7
2	40%4/10	43%3/7
3	40%4/10	20%1/5
4	27%3/11	0%0/4
5	75%3/4	57%4/7
6	50%2/4	25%1/4
All	42%20/48	35%12/34

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	FIU-MERMCK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.2
2	1-1	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Lana Sesar	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.1
3	2-1	FIU	FIU	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Lana Sesar, Kamryn Itzen	+0.1
4	2-2	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.2
5	3-2	MERMCK	FIU	Attack err	Mia Izzo	blk Kamryn Itzen	+0.1
6	3-3	FIU	MERMCK	Kill	Vaia Tsioutsioulas	set Mckenna Shotwell	+0.2
7	3-4	MERMCK	MERMCK	Bad set	Marta Lazzarin		+0.2
8	4-4	MERMCK	FIU×5	Kill	Marla Valentin	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.2
9	5-4	FIU	FIU×5	Kill	Lana Sesar	set Teodora Skocajic	+0.2
10	6-4	FIU	FIU×5	Kill	Marla Valentin	set Lana Sesar	+0.1
11	7-4	FIU	FIU×5	Ace	FIU server	aced Team	+0.1
12	8-4	FIU	FIU×5	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+0.1
13	8-5	FIU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
14	9-5	MERMCK	FIU	Attack err	Vaia Tsioutsioulas		+0.1
15	10-5	FIU	FIU	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Marta Lazzarin	+0.1
16	10-6	FIU	MERMCK×3	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.1
17	10-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.1
18	10-8	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Chiara Fabbrini	blk Maiella Blandin, Naomi Vajda	+0.2
19	11-8	MERMCK	FIU	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Teodora Skocajic, Jillian Huckabey	+0.1
20	11-9	FIU	MERMCK	Kill	Naomi Vajda	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.1
21	12-9	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Mariana Silva	+0.1
22	12-10	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.2
23	13-10	MERMCK	FIU×3	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Mariana Silva	+0.1
24	14-10	FIU	FIU×3	Ace	FIU server	aced Ella Maldonado	+0.1
25	15-10	FIU	FIU×3	Attack err	Mia Izzo	blk Lana Sesar, Kamryn Itzen	+0.1
26	15-11	FIU	MERMCK	Kill	Sophia DeBonis	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
27	16-11	MERMCK	FIU×4	Kill	Marla Valentin	set Marta Lazzarin	+0.1
28	17-11	FIU	FIU×4	Attack err	Vaia Tsioutsioulas		+0.1
29	18-11	FIU	FIU×4	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+0.0
30	19-11	FIU	FIU×4	Ace	FIU server	aced Team	+0.0
31	19-12	FIU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
32	20-12	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Marla Valentin	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
33	20-13	FIU	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
34	21-13	MERMCK	FIU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
35	22-13	FIU	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Mariana Silva	+0.0
36	22-14	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
37	22-15	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Jillian Huckabey	blk Naomi Vajda, Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
38	23-15	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Mariana Silva	set Kindyl Kilar	+0.0
39	24-15	FIU	FIU	Kill	Teodora Skocajic	set Mariana Silva	+0.0
40	24-16	FIU	MERMCK	Attack err	Kindyl Kilar	blk Maiella Blandin, Naomi Vajda	+0.0
41	25-16	MERMCK	FIU	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	FIU	FIU×4	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.1
2	2-0	FIU	FIU×4	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Marta Lazzarin	+0.1
3	3-0	FIU	FIU×4	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+0.1
4	4-0	FIU	FIU×4	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
5	4-1	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
6	4-2	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Marta Lazzarin	+0.1
7	5-2	MERMCK	FIU×4	Bad set	Sophia DeBonis		+0.1
8	6-2	FIU	FIU×4	Attack err	Mia Izzo	blk Kamryn Itzen, Chiara Fabbrini	+0.1
9	7-2	FIU	FIU×4	Kill	Marla Valentin	set Chiara Fabbrini	+0.0
10	8-2	FIU	FIU×4	Attack err	Natalia Zelubowski	blk Kamryn Itzen, Chiara Fabbrini	+0.0
11	8-3	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
12	8-4	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
13	9-4	MERMCK	FIU×3	Kill	Marla Valentin	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
14	10-4	FIU	FIU×3	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
15	11-4	FIU	FIU×3	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Marta Lazzarin	+0.0
16	11-5	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
17	12-5	MERMCK	FIU	Attack err	Maiella Blandin	blk Marla Valentin, Teodora Skocajic	+0.0
18	12-6	FIU	MERMCK×3	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
19	12-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Chiara Fabbrini		+0.0
20	12-8	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
21	13-8	MERMCK	FIU×6	Kill	Marla Valentin	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
22	14-8	FIU	FIU×6	Attack err	Naomi Vajda		+0.0
23	15-8	FIU	FIU×6	Attack err	Maiella Blandin		+0.0
24	16-8	FIU	FIU×6	Attack err	Elizabeth Kenney		+0.0
25	17-8	FIU	FIU×6	Kill	Teodora Skocajic	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.0
26	18-8	FIU	FIU×6	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Ivona Lazovic, Teodora Skocajic	+0.0
27	18-9	FIU	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
28	18-10	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Chiara Fabbrini		+0.0
29	18-11	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Jillian Huckabey	blk Maiella Blandin, Mia Izzo	+0.0
30	19-11	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Ivona Lazovic	set Jillian Huckabey	+0.0
31	19-12	FIU	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.0
32	20-12	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
33	21-12	FIU	FIU	Ace	FIU server	aced Sienna Franks	+0.0
34	21-13	FIU	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
35	21-14	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Kamryn Itzen		+0.0
36	21-15	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
37	22-15	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Jillian Huckabey	set Kamryn Itzen	+0.0
38	23-15	FIU	FIU	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+0.0
39	23-16	FIU	MERMCK×3	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
40	23-17	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
41	23-18	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
42	24-18	MERMCK	FIU	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
43	24-19	FIU	MERMCK	Ace	FIU server	aced Team	+0.0
44	25-19	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Jillian Huckabey		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Marta Lazzarin	+0.1
2	0-2	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Ella Maldonado	+0.1
3	1-2	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
4	2-2	FIU	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
5	2-3	FIU	MERMCK	Attack err	Kamryn Itzen		+0.1
6	2-4	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	MERMCK server	aced Team	+0.1
7	3-4	MERMCK	FIU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.1
8	3-5	FIU	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
9	4-5	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Marta Lazzarin	+0.1
10	5-5	FIU	FIU	Ace	FIU server	aced Team	+0.1
11	5-6	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.1
12	6-6	MERMCK	FIU×7	Kill	Tiyana Cisse	set Mia Gonzalez	+0.1
13	7-6	FIU	FIU×7	Kill	Teodora Skocajic		+0.1
14	8-6	FIU	FIU×7	Ace	FIU server	aced Team	+0.0
15	9-6	FIU	FIU×7	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
16	10-6	FIU	FIU×7	Ace	FIU server	aced Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
17	11-6	FIU	FIU×7	Ace	FIU server	aced Maiella Blandin	+0.0
18	12-6	FIU	FIU×7	Ace	FIU server	aced Ella Maldonado	+0.0
19	12-7	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
20	12-8	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Tamilore Afolalu	+0.0
21	13-8	MERMCK	FIU	Serve err	MERMCK server		+0.0
22	13-9	FIU	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.0
23	13-10	MERMCK	MERMCK	Bad set	Mia Gonzalez		+0.0
24	14-10	MERMCK	FIU×3	Kill	Kindyl Kilar	set Mia Gonzalez	+0.0
25	15-10	FIU	FIU×3	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.0
26	16-10	FIU	FIU×3	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
27	16-11	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
28	17-11	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Kamryn Itzen	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
29	18-11	FIU	FIU	Kill	Kamryn Itzen	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
30	18-12	FIU	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.0
31	18-13	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Mckenna Shotwell	+0.0
32	18-14	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Sophia DeBonis	set Ella Maldonado	+0.0
33	19-14	MERMCK	FIU×4	Attack err	Mia Izzo		+0.0
34	20-14	FIU	FIU×4	Attack err	Mia Izzo	blk Teodora Skocajic, Marla Valentin	+0.0
35	21-14	FIU	FIU×4	Ace	FIU server	aced Tamilore Afolalu	+0.0
36	22-14	FIU	FIU×4	Kill	Chiara Fabbrini		+0.0
37	22-15	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
38	23-15	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Teodora Skocajic	set Ivona Lazovic	+0.0
39	24-15	FIU	FIU	Ace	FIU server	aced Ella Maldonado	+0.0
40	24-16	FIU	MERMCK	Serve err	FIU server		+0.0
41	25-16	MERMCK	FIU	Kill	Mia Gonzalez	set Kindyl Kilar	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, FIU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.