Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Miami (OH) def. Buffalo 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Miami (OH) 79.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 5:26 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Miami (OH) beat visiting Buffalo 3-1 (19-25, 25-21, 25-21, 25-13) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Miami (OH)'s Molly Creech led with 16 kills, and Rachel Morgan added 14 digs.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
BUFF252121131
MIA OH192525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Buffalo hit .106. Miami (OH) held them there all match.

Win probability never moved more than 5.9 points on one rally; Buffalo topped out at 43% in Set 2. Miami (OH) went in as RallyIQ's 80% pick.

BuffaloMiami (OH)
  • Break %+10.0 pts
    30.940.9

    38 of 93 on serve vs 25 of 81, so Buffalo's sideout was 59.1%.

  • Longest run+2
    46

    Miami (OH) scored 6 straight in the fourth set to go from 2–2 to an 8–2 lead. Final score of the set: 25–13.

Miami (OH) above 50Buffalo belowMax swing 5.9%

BuffaloMiami (OH)

Hitting
Buffalo .106·Miami (OH) .164
Aces
Buffalo 1·Miami (OH) 4
Serve err
Buffalo 8·Miami (OH) 9
Blocks
Buffalo 8·Miami (OH) 91 BS · 14 BA vs 1 BS · 16 BA
Digs
Buffalo 62·Miami (OH) 63

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Miami (OH) above 50 · Buffalo below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.9% MIA OHrally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.9% to Miami (OH) — set 3, BUFF 20-22 MIA OH. Hailey Campagna stuffed by Lydia Michelin & Lauren Coyne. MIA OH win probability 76% → 82%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUFF 14.5%85.5% MIA OH

Buffalo wins

3-0
2.1%
3-1
4.6%
3-2
7.7%

Miami (OH) wins

3-0
37.8%
3-1
31.4%
3-2
16.4%
BUFF break %
36.9% vs this opp
MIA OH break %
44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Hailey Campagna stuffed by Lydia Michelin & Lauren Coyne

    Set 3 · BUFF 20-22 MIA OH · MIA OH 76% → 82%

  2. 02

    Kill by Maddie Mitchell (set by Angelina Siepierski)

    Set 3 · BUFF 19-19 MIA OH · BUFF 23% → 28%

  3. 03
    Grace KreutzKill+4.5%

    Kill by Grace Kreutz (set by Piper Willinger)

    Set 3 · BUFF 20-21 MIA OH · MIA OH 72% → 76%

  4. 04

    Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Anaya Cole)

    Set 3 · BUFF 20-20 MIA OH · BUFF 24% → 28%

  5. 05

    Kill by Lydia Michelin (set by Kamryn Utley)

    Set 3 · BUFF 20-23 MIA OH · MIA OH 82% → 86%

  6. 06
    Grace KreutzBlock+4.1%

    Tehya Shaw stuffed by Grace Kreutz

    Set 3 · BUFF 19-20 MIA OH · MIA OH 72% → 76%

  7. 07
    Anaya ColeAce+4.0%

    Ace by Anaya Cole on Molly Creech

    Set 3 · BUFF 17-18 MIA OH · BUFF 19% → 23%

  8. 08
    Manoela ForlinAttack error+3.9%

    Attack error by Manoela Forlin

    Set 2 · BUFF 18-21 MIA OH · MIA OH 66% → 70%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
47734.0000001210218
45212.25000010132.57.5
45314.1433102800216
44112.250100000426
43518-.111101920003
4102.500200610001
48217.353002500008
47626.03800030010.57.5
4001.0004111600001
4000–001200000
1326.167001000214
Team totals4328142.1063918624114880
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416841.19511012100017
49527.1480000006312
47112.500000100429
45011.455011600428
3001.000401500000
1049-.444000100000
412335.25700170111.513.5
4001.0006101400001
4000–2211800001
4000–902100000
2137-.286000100001
21011.000402600001
2035-.600000000000
11011.00000010010.51.5
1001.000001000000
Team totals5227152.1644649631116994

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Buffalo vs Miami (OH)

Season series · Miami (OH) leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 BUFF · MIA OH 6

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 3 BUFFMIA OH 3

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 2 BUFFMIA OH 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 BUFFMIA OH 5

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 2 BUFFMIA OH 6

Bars above the line = Miami (OH) leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Buffalo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
41%11/27
44%7/16
2
59%10/17
15%2/13
3
83%10/12
23%3/13
4
53%9/17
31%4/13
5
80%8/10
40%6/15
6
70%7/10
27%3/11
All
59%55/93
31%25/81

Miami (OH)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
55%11/20
2
83%10/12
41%7/17
3
64%9/14
44%8/18
4
64%9/14
40%6/15
5
75%9/12
31%4/13
6
67%8/12
20%2/10
All
69%56/81
41%38/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#BUFF-MIA OHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MIA OHBUFFAttack errMolly Creech+1.4
21-1BUFFMIA OHAttack errAngelina Siepierski+1.3
32-1MIA OHBUFFServe errMiami (OH)+1.4
43-1BUFFBUFFBlockedMolly Creechblk Sydney Bell, Ava Kanj+2.1
53-2BUFFMIA OHAttack errSydney Bell+1.3
64-2MIA OHBUFF×3KillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+1.5
75-2BUFFBUFF×3Attack errMolly Creech+2.3
86-2BUFFBUFF×3Attack errLauren Coyne+2.3
96-3BUFFMIA OHAttack errSydney Bell+1.3
107-3MIA OHBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.6
118-3BUFFBUFF×3Attack errSydney Waller+2.2
129-3BUFFBUFF×3BlockedMolly Creechblk Sydney Bell, Tehya Shaw+2.0
139-4BUFFMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Holland Van Deusen+1.1
1410-4MIA OHBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.5
1510-5BUFFMIA OHServe errBuffalo+1.1
1610-6MIA OHMIA OHBad setMaddie Mitchell+1.9
1711-6MIA OHBUFFKillMaddie Mitchellset Maddie Mitchell+1.6
1812-6BUFFBUFFAttack errChelsea Williams+2.1
1912-7BUFFMIA OH×3KillHolland Van Deusenset Molly Creech+1.1
2012-8MIA OHMIA OH×3KillLauren Coyneset Rachel Morgan+1.9
2112-9MIA OHMIA OH×3BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Lauren Coyne, Lydia Michelin+2.1
2213-9MIA OHBUFFServe errMiami (OH)+1.9
2313-10BUFFMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Madison Brown+1.5
2414-10MIA OHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
2515-10BUFFBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+2.4
2615-11BUFFMIA OHServe errBuffalo+1.2
2715-12MIA OHMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Kamryn Utley+2.2
2816-12MIA OHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+2.0
2916-13BUFFMIA OHBlockedManoela Forlinblk Raegan Lantz, Lauren Coyne+1.5
3016-14MIA OHMIA OHAttack errManoela Forlin+2.6
3117-14MIA OHBUFFServe errMiami (OH)+2.3
3217-15BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+1.8
3318-15MIA OHBUFFBlockedSydney Wallerblk Manoela Forlin, Tehya Shaw+2.4
3418-16BUFFMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Holland Van Deusen+1.9
3519-16MIA OHBUFFKillMaddie Mitchellset Chloe Brown+2.6
3620-16BUFFBUFFBlockedChelsea Williamsblk Tehya Shaw, Maddie Mitchell+3.1
3720-17BUFFMIA OHAttack errAngelina Siepierski+1.4
3821-17MIA OHBUFFAttack errChelsea Williams+2.2
3922-17BUFFBUFFAttack errChelsea Williams+2.1
4022-18BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+0.7
4123-18MIA OHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
4223-19BUFFMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Kamryn Utley+0.5
4324-19MIA OHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+1.0
4425-19BUFFBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+0.4
Set 2
11-0BUFFBUFFAttack errLauren Coyne+2.9
21-1BUFFMIA OH×3KillGrace Kreutzset Rachel Morgan+1.9
31-2MIA OHMIA OH×3KillLauren Coyneset Kamryn Utley+2.7
41-3MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errMaddie Mitchell+2.5
52-3MIA OHBUFFServe errMiami (OH)+1.7
62-4BUFFMIA OHKillLydia Michelinset Kamryn Utley+1.7
73-4MIA OHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Anaya Cole+1.8
83-5BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+1.8
94-5MIA OHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Ava Kanj+1.8
104-6BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Piper Willinger+1.8
114-7MIA OHMIA OHAttack errTehya Shaw+2.4
125-7MIA OHBUFFAttack errGrace Kreutz+1.6
135-8BUFFMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Piper Willinger+1.6
145-9MIA OHMIA OHAceMiami (OH)aced Chloe Brown+2.1
156-9MIA OHBUFFKillTehya Shawset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
167-9BUFFBUFFAttack errSydney Waller+2.3
177-10BUFFMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Piper Willinger+1.7
187-11MIA OHMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Kamryn Utley+2.1
198-11MIA OHBUFFKillTehya Shawset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
208-12BUFFMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Kamryn Utley+1.5
219-12MIA OHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.4
229-13BUFFMIA OHServe errBuffalo+1.5
2310-13MIA OHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+1.4
2411-13BUFFBUFFBlockedLauren Coyneblk Manoela Forlin, Ava Kanj+2.6
2511-14BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Rachel Morgan+2.0
2612-14MIA OHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
2712-15BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Piper Willinger+2.0
2813-15MIA OHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
2913-16BUFFMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Piper Willinger+2.1
3014-16MIA OHBUFFServe errMiami (OH)+1.9
3114-17BUFFMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Piper Willinger+2.2
3215-17MIA OHBUFFKillTehya Shawset Maddie Mitchell+2.0
3316-17BUFFBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+3.8
3416-18BUFFMIA OHBlockedManoela Forlinblk Lauren Coyne, Lydia Michelin+2.9
3517-18MIA OHBUFFKillMaddie Mitchellset Chloe Brown+2.8
3617-19BUFFMIA OHKillLydia Michelinset Kamryn Utley+3.1
3718-19MIA OHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Rachel Morgan+2.9
3818-20BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Madison Brown+3.3
3918-21MIA OHMIA OHAttack errManoela Forlin+3.9
4019-21MIA OHBUFFServe errMiami (OH)+2.0
4119-22BUFFMIA OHAttack errAbbie Willis+2.7
4220-22MIA OHBUFFAttack errKendall Bosse+1.9
4320-23BUFFMIA OHServe errBuffalo+2.8
4421-23MIA OHBUFFAttack errLydia Michelin+1.6
4521-24BUFFMIA OHAttack errHailey Campagna+2.8
4621-25MIA OHMIA OHKillLydia Michelinset Maddie Mitchell+1.4
Set 3
10-1MIA OHMIA OHBlockedHailey Campagnablk Lauren Coyne, Lydia Michelin+2.6
20-2MIA OHMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Kamryn Utley+2.4
31-2MIA OHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.7
41-3BUFFMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Kamryn Utley+1.7
52-3MIA OHBUFFBlockedLauren Coyneblk Hailey Campagna, Ava Kanj+1.7
62-4BUFFMIA OHKillLydia Michelinset Kamryn Utley+1.7
73-4MIA OHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+1.8
84-4BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.9
94-5BUFFMIA OH×5KillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+2.0
104-6MIA OHMIA OH×5KillMolly Creechset Rachel Morgan+2.7
114-7MIA OHMIA OH×5KillKendall Bosseset Rachel Morgan+2.4
124-8MIA OHMIA OH×5Attack errAva Kanj+2.0
134-9MIA OHMIA OH×5Attack errManoela Forlin+1.6
145-9MIA OHBUFFServe errMiami (OH)+1.0
155-10BUFFMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Holland Van Deusen+1.1
165-11MIA OHMIA OHAceMiami (OH)aced Angelina Siepierski+1.3
176-11MIA OHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.7
187-11BUFFBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+1.4
197-12BUFFMIA OHAttack errMaddie Mitchell+1.2
208-12MIA OHBUFFKillChloe Brown+1.0
219-12BUFFBUFFAttack errKendall Bosse+1.9
229-13BUFFMIA OH×3KillGrace Kreutzset Madison Brown+1.5
239-14MIA OHMIA OH×3AceMiami (OH)aced Manoela Forlin+1.7
249-15MIA OHMIA OH×3KillMolly Creechset Rachel Morgan+1.3
2510-15MIA OHBUFFKillTehya Shawset Maddie Mitchell+0.7
2611-15BUFFBUFFAttack errLauren Coyne+1.4
2711-16BUFFMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Kamryn Utley+1.2
2812-16MIA OHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Anaya Cole+1.0
2912-17BUFFMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Kamryn Utley+1.2
3013-17MIA OHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+0.9
3113-18BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+1.2
3214-18MIA OHBUFF×4Attack errKendall Bosse+0.9
3315-18BUFFBUFF×4KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
3416-18BUFFBUFF×4Attack errMolly Creech+2.8
3517-18BUFFBUFF×4AceAnaya Coleaced Molly Creech+4.0
3617-19BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Madison Brown+3.1
3718-19MIA OHBUFFKillTehya Shawset Maddie Mitchell+2.9
3819-19BUFFBUFFKillMaddie Mitchellset Angelina Siepierski+5.5
3919-20BUFFMIA OHBlockedTehya Shawblk Grace Kreutz+4.1
4020-20MIA OHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Anaya Cole+4.3
4120-21BUFFMIA OH×4KillGrace Kreutzset Piper Willinger+4.5
4220-22MIA OHMIA OH×4BlockedHailey Campagnablk Lydia Michelin, Lauren Coyne+5.9
4320-23MIA OHMIA OH×4KillLydia Michelinset Kamryn Utley+4.2
4420-24MIA OHMIA OH×4Attack errHailey Campagna+2.1
4521-24MIA OHBUFFAttack errMolly Creech+0.4
4621-25BUFFMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Rachel Morgan+0.9
Set 4
11-0BUFFBUFFBlockedGrace Kreutzblk Ava Kanj, Maddie Mitchell+2.3
21-1BUFFMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Kamryn Utley+1.5
31-2MIA OHMIA OHAttack errHailey Campagna+2.2
42-2MIA OHBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.6
52-3BUFFMIA OH×6KillLydia Michelinset Kamryn Utley+1.5
62-4MIA OHMIA OH×6BlockedHailey Campagnablk Lauren Coyne, Raegan Lantz+2.0
72-5MIA OHMIA OH×6KillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+1.8
82-6MIA OHMIA OH×6Attack errAngelina Siepierski+1.6
92-7MIA OHMIA OH×6AceMiami (OH)aced Angelina Siepierski+1.3
102-8MIA OHMIA OH×6Bad setAnaya Cole+1.0
113-8MIA OHBUFFAttack errMolly Creech+0.6
123-9BUFFMIA OHServe errBuffalo+0.7
134-9MIA OHBUFFServe errMiami (OH)+0.6
144-10BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Piper Willinger+0.7
155-10MIA OHBUFFBlockedMolly Creechblk Tehya Shaw+0.6
165-11BUFFMIA OHServe errBuffalo+0.7
176-11MIA OHBUFFKillMaddie Mitchellset Anaya Cole+0.6
186-12BUFFMIA OHKillSophia Stallworthset Piper Willinger+0.7
197-12MIA OHBUFFServe errMiami (OH)+0.6
208-12BUFFBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+1.1
218-13BUFFMIA OH×5Serve errBuffalo+0.9
228-14MIA OHMIA OH×5Attack errMaddie Mitchell+1.0
238-15MIA OHMIA OH×5Attack errManoela Forlin+0.7
248-16MIA OHMIA OH×5KillLydia Michelinset Kamryn Utley+0.4
258-17MIA OHMIA OH×5KillLauren Coyneset Kamryn Utley+0.2
269-17MIA OHBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
279-18BUFFMIA OH×3KillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+0.1
289-19MIA OHMIA OH×3KillRaegan Lantzset Lauren Coyne+0.1
299-20MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errAngelina Siepierski·
3010-20MIA OHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell·
3110-21BUFFMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley·
3211-21MIA OHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell·
3311-22BUFFMIA OH×3Serve errBuffalo·
3411-23MIA OHMIA OH×3BlockedAbbie Willisblk Raegan Lantz, Grace Kreutz·
3511-24MIA OHMIA OH×3BlockedManoela Forlinblk Raegan Lantz, Sophia Stallworth·
3612-24MIA OHBUFFAttack errGrace Kreutz·
3713-24BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell·
3813-25BUFFMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Piper Willinger·

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).