Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Buffalo def. Eastern Mich. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Buffalo 66.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Buffalo beat visiting Eastern Mich. 3-1 (18-25, 25-14, 25-14, 26-24) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Buffalo's Manoela Forlin led with 14 kills, and Sadie Gladhill added 20 digs.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
E MICH251414241
BUFF182525263

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Buffalo held on against Eastern Mich.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Buffalo's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ gave Buffalo 66% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Eastern Mich. 21–19 Buffalo

    Down 19–21, Buffalo scored 3 straight to lead 22–21.

    Buffalo 69% → 87%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Eastern Mich. 23–23 Buffalo

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Buffalo, enough to take the set 26–24 and win the match 3–1.

    Buffalo 81% → >99%

Buffalo above 50Eastern Mich. belowMax swing 10.2%

Eastern Mich.Buffalo

Sideout %
Eastern Mich. 47.3·Buffalo 57.7
Break %
Eastern Mich. 42.3·Buffalo 52.7
Hitting
Eastern Mich. .079·Buffalo .150
Longest run
Eastern Mich. 6·Buffalo 6

Angelina Siepierski
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 12 K, .021, 13 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Buffalo above 50 · Eastern Mich. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.2% BUFFrally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.2% to Buffalo — set 4, E MICH 24-26 BUFF. Lily Spark stuffed by Abisola Adebayo. BUFF win probability 90% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

E MICH 30.9%69.1% BUFF

Eastern Mich. wins

3-0
6.0%
3-1
10.9%
3-2
14.1%

Buffalo wins

3-0
22.6%
3-1
26.5%
3-2
19.9%
E MICH break %
41.8% vs this opp
BUFF break %
45.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Abisola AdebayoBlock+10.2%

    Lily Spark stuffed by Abisola Adebayo

    Set 4 · E MICH 24-26 BUFF · BUFF 90% → 100%

  2. 02

    Kill by Angelina Siepierski (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 4 · E MICH 23-24 BUFF · BUFF 81% → 90%

  3. 03
    Taeley MahlerKill+8.5%

    Kill by Taeley Mahler (set by Lina Govoni)

    Set 4 · E MICH 24-24 BUFF · E MICH 10% → 19%

  4. 04

    Kill by Angelina Siepierski (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 4 · E MICH 24-25 BUFF · BUFF 81% → 90%

  5. 05
    BuffaloAce+7.2%

    Buffalo ace on Lily Spark

    Set 4 · E MICH 21-22 BUFF · BUFF 80% → 87%

  6. 06
    Ava KanjBlock+6.6%

    Natalie Slusher stuffed by Ava Kanj

    Set 4 · E MICH 22-23 BUFF · BUFF 81% → 88%

  7. 07
    Taeley MahlerKill+6.5%

    Kill by Taeley Mahler (set by Lina Govoni)

    Set 4 · E MICH 23-23 BUFF · E MICH 12% → 19%

  8. 08

    Kill by Manoela Forlin (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 4 · E MICH 21-21 BUFF · BUFF 73% → 80%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414744.1591024210115
49838.026102181111.510.5
44413.00010010515.59.5
44214.14310070313.57.5
43115.13300010111.54.5
4002.00017101100001
47428.107000000007
4001.000800600000
4001.0000022030000
3012-.500020400002
2001.000802500000
2000–000000000
1112.000000000001
1013-.333000000000
Team totals4229164.07937387771141377
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414951.09801115020217
410126.3460215022315
4121148.02101116200013
47012.583000402029
44210.20010010132.56.5
2000–1100201011
41112.000302090111.54.5
4000–011300001
4000–000100000
4000–4022010000
2001.000000400000
1000–000000000
Team totals4824160.1504676803961294

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Eastern Mich. vs Buffalo

Season series · Buffalo leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 E MICH · BUFF 6

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 E MICHBUFF 3

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 E MICHBUFF 5

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 6 E MICHBUFF 6

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 3 E MICHBUFF 3

Bars above the line = Buffalo leads, below = Eastern Mich. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Eastern Mich.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%6/8
44%4/9
2
83%5/6
55%6/11
3
80%4/5
38%3/8
4
33%4/12
56%5/9
5
67%4/6
20%1/5
6
57%4/7
43%3/7
All
61%27/44
45%22/49

Buffalo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%5/10
38%3/8
2
56%5/9
38%3/8
3
45%5/11
0%0/5
4
80%4/5
56%5/9
5
57%4/7
56%5/9
6
57%4/7
20%1/5
All
55%27/49
39%17/44

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#E MICH-BUFFSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0BUFFE MICHKillNatalie Slusherset Kaylin Schroeder+1.8
21-1E MICHBUFFServe errEastern Mich.+1.7
32-1BUFFE MICHKillLily Sparkset Natalie Slusher+1.8
42-2E MICHBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Michal Benaim+1.8
53-2BUFFE MICHKillAzra Eriçset Kaylin Schroeder+1.9
64-2E MICHE MICHKillAzra Eriç+2.5
74-3E MICHBUFF×3BlockedLily Sparkblk Michal Benaim+1.8
84-4BUFFBUFF×3BlockedAzra Eriçblk Manoela Forlin+2.4
94-5BUFFBUFF×3Attack errHaley Trosky+2.4
105-5BUFFE MICHServe errBuffalo+1.9
115-6E MICHBUFFServe errEastern Mich.+1.9
126-6BUFFE MICHKillHaley Troskyset Lina Govoni+1.9
137-6E MICHE MICHBlockedManoela Forlinblk Maddie Herman+2.7
147-7E MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+2.0
158-7BUFFE MICHAttack errManoela Forlinset Ava Kanj+2.1
169-7E MICHE MICHAttack errAva Kanj+2.8
179-8E MICHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Michal Benaim+2.0
1810-8BUFFE MICH×4KillTaeley Mahlerset Kaylin Schroeder+2.3
1911-8E MICHE MICH×4KillLily Sparkset Kaylin Schroeder+2.9
2012-8E MICHE MICH×4Attack errManoela Forlin+2.7
2113-8E MICHE MICH×4BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Maddie Herman, Taeley Mahler+2.5
2213-9E MICHBUFFServe errEastern Mich.+1.5
2313-10BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+2.3
2414-10BUFFE MICHServe errBuffalo+2.2
2515-10E MICHE MICHBlockedAbbie Willisblk Lily Spark+2.5
2615-11E MICHBUFFKillAngelina Siepierski+1.5
2716-11BUFFE MICH×4Bad setMichal Benaim+2.0
2817-11E MICHE MICH×4Attack errAngelina Siepierski+2.0
2918-11E MICHE MICH×4BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Azra Eriç+1.5
3019-11E MICHE MICH×4BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Azra Eriç+1.0
3119-12E MICHBUFF×3KillAbisola Adebayoset Michal Benaim+0.4
3219-13BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffaloaced Natalie Slusher+0.8
3319-14BUFFBUFF×3Attack errHaley Trosky+1.2
3420-14BUFFE MICHKillLily Sparkset Lina Govoni+1.4
3520-15E MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+0.8
3620-16BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+1.6
3721-16BUFFE MICHServe errBuffalo+1.9
3822-16E MICHE MICHKillNatalie Slusher+1.5
3922-17E MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+0.5
4023-17BUFFE MICHKillHaley Troskyset Lina Govoni+0.9
4124-17E MICHE MICHKillNatalie Slusherset Taeley Mahler+0.5
4224-18E MICHBUFFKillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+0.1
4325-18BUFFE MICHServe errBuffalo+0.2
Set 2
10-1E MICHBUFFAttack errTaeley Mahlerset Kaylin Schroeder+2.0
21-1BUFFE MICHKillNatalie Slusherset Kaylin Schroeder+2.1
31-2E MICHBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
42-2BUFFE MICHServe errBuffalo+2.1
53-2E MICH
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.9
63-3E MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.2
73-4BUFFBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+2.8
84-4BUFFE MICHKillLily Sparkset Kaylin Schroeder+2.2
94-5E MICHBUFFAttack errLily Sparkset Surabhi Srinivasan+2.2
104-6BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlin+2.8
115-6BUFFE MICHAttack errManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
126-6E MICHE MICHKillAzra Eriç+3.0
136-7E MICHBUFF×4Attack errLily Sparkset Lina Govoni+2.3
146-8BUFFBUFF×4Attack errNatalie Slusher+2.9
156-9BUFFBUFF×4AceBuffaloaced Surabhi Srinivasan+2.7
166-10BUFFBUFF×4BlockedNatalie Slusherblk Abbie Willis+2.4
177-10BUFFE MICHKillHaley Troskyset Lina Govoni+1.7
188-10E MICHE MICHAttack errManoela Forlin+2.6
198-11E MICHBUFF×4KillAva Kanjset Maddie Mitchell+2.2
208-12BUFFBUFF×4Attack errHaley Trosky+2.5
218-13BUFFBUFF×4KillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
228-14BUFFBUFF×4KillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+1.6
239-14BUFFE MICHKillNatalie Slusherset Lina Govoni+1.0
2410-14E MICHE MICHAceEastern Mich.aced Sadie Gladhill+1.7
2510-15E MICHBUFF×3KillAngelina Siepierskiset Ava Kanj+1.6
2610-16BUFFBUFF×3KillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+1.6
2710-17BUFFBUFF×3Attack errNatalie Slusher+1.1
2811-17BUFFE MICHKillOlivia Stewartset Kaylin Schroeder+0.6
2911-18E MICHBUFF×5KillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+0.8
3011-19BUFFBUFF×5Ball handlingKaylin Schroeder+0.6
3111-20BUFFBUFF×5BlockedLily Sparkblk Maddie Mitchell+0.3
3211-21BUFFBUFF×5BlockedOlivia Stewartblk Abisola Adebayo+0.2
3311-22BUFFBUFF×5AceBuffaloaced Surabhi Srinivasan+0.1
3412-22BUFFE MICHKillTaeley Mahler·
3512-23E MICHBUFFServe errEastern Mich.·
3613-23E MICH
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
3713-24E MICHBUFFBlockedLily Sparkblk Manoela Forlin·
3814-24BUFFE MICHKillHaley Troskyset Azra Eriç·
3914-25E MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Sadie Gladhill·
Set 3
10-1BUFFBUFF×3KillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+3.0
20-2BUFFBUFF×3Attack errAzra Eriç+2.9
30-3BUFFBUFF×3BlockedLily Sparkblk Abbie Willis, Ava Kanj+2.7
41-3BUFFE MICHKillHaley Troskyset Kaylin Schroeder+2.0
52-3E MICHE MICHAttack errAva Kanj+2.9
62-4E MICHBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+2.3
73-4BUFFE MICHKillNatalie Slusherset Kaylin Schroeder+2.3
83-5E MICHBUFF×5Attack errHaley Troskyset Azra Eriç+2.4
93-6BUFFBUFF×5KillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+2.9
103-7BUFFBUFF×5AceBuffaloaced Natalie Slusher+2.6
113-8BUFFBUFF×5KillMaddie Mitchellset Sadie Gladhill+2.2
123-9BUFFBUFF×5Attack errNatalie Slusher+1.8
134-9E MICH
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.2
145-9E MICHE MICH×6BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Taeley Mahler+2.0
156-9E MICHE MICH×6KillMaddie Herman+2.4
167-9E MICHE MICH×6Attack errAngelina Siepierski+2.9
178-9E MICHE MICH×6KillNatalie Slusherset Julia Johnson+3.3
189-9E MICHE MICH×6KillNatalie Slusherset Julia Johnson+3.7
199-10E MICHBUFF×3Serve errEastern Mich.+2.9
209-11BUFFBUFF×3Ball handlingTaeley Mahler+3.6
219-12BUFFBUFF×3Attack errTaeley Mahler+3.3
2210-12BUFFE MICHKillMaddie Hermanset Lily Spark+2.4
2310-13E MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.6
2410-14BUFFBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+3.0
2511-14BUFFE MICHKillMaddie Hermanset Julia Johnson+2.0
2612-14E MICHE MICHAttack errAngelina Siepierski+3.2
2712-15E MICHBUFFServe errEastern Mich.+2.8
2813-15BUFFE MICHKillLily Sparkset Julia Johnson+2.6
2913-16E MICHBUFF×6KillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+2.9
3013-17BUFFBUFF×6KillAngelina Siepierskiset Sadie Gladhill+3.2
3113-18BUFFBUFF×6KillManoela Forlin+2.4
3213-19BUFFBUFF×6KillAva Kanj+1.7
3313-20BUFFBUFF×6BlockedOlivia Beaudrieblk Abbie Willis, Ava Kanj+1.0
3413-21BUFFBUFF×6Attack errAzra Eriç+0.5
3514-21BUFFE MICHBlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Lily Spark, Azra Eriç+0.2
3614-22E MICHBUFF×4Serve errEastern Mich.+0.3
3714-23BUFFBUFF×4KillAbbie Willis+0.2
3814-24BUFFBUFF×4KillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell·
3914-25BUFFBUFF×4BlockedNatalie Slusherblk Abbie Willis·
Set 4
10-1E MICHBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+2.0
20-2BUFFBUFFKillAbisola Adebayo+2.5
31-2BUFFE MICHServe errBuffalo+2.0
42-2E MICHE MICHAttack errAngelina Siepierski+2.7
52-3E MICHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
63-3BUFFE MICHKillLily Spark+2.2
73-4E MICHBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+2.2
84-4BUFFE MICHKillLily Sparkset Kaylin Schroeder+2.2
95-4E MICHE MICHAttack errManoela Forlin+3.1
105-5E MICHBUFF×3Serve errEastern Mich.+2.3
115-6BUFFBUFF×3Attack errMia Schaefer+3.0
125-7BUFFBUFF×3BlockedMaddie Mitchellblk Ava Kanj, Buffalo+2.8
136-7BUFFE MICHBlockedManoela Forlinblk Azra Eriç+2.2
146-8E MICHBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.3
156-9BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Surabhi Srinivasan+2.7
167-9BUFFE MICHKillNatalie Slusherset Julia Johnson+2.0
178-9E MICHE MICHBlockedManoela Forlinblk Natalie Slusher+2.9
188-10E MICHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+2.4
198-11BUFFBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+2.9
209-11BUFFE MICH×3KillNatalie Slusher+2.1
2110-11E MICHE MICH×3KillNatalie Slusherset Kaylin Schroeder+3.1
2211-11E MICHE MICH×3BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Taeley Mahler+3.5
2311-12E MICHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Sadie Gladhill+2.8
2411-13BUFFBUFFAttack errMaddie Herman+3.4
2512-13BUFFE MICH×3KillNatalie Slusher+2.6
2613-13E MICHE MICH×3AceEastern Mich.aced Angelina Siepierski+3.8
2714-13E MICHE MICH×3AceEastern Mich.aced Angelina Siepierski+4.1
2814-14E MICHBUFFKillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+3.1
2915-14BUFFE MICH×3Bad setMaddie Mitchell+3.4
3016-14E MICHE MICH×3KillLily Sparkset Kaylin Schroeder+4.5
3117-14E MICHE MICH×3BlockedAngelina Siepierskiblk Taeley Mahler+4.3
3217-15E MICHBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Michal Benaim+2.8
3318-15BUFFE MICHKillLily Sparkset Kaylin Schroeder+3.5
3418-16E MICHBUFF×3Attack errAzra Eriçset Mia Schaefer+2.8
3518-17BUFFBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Michal Benaim+4.4
3618-18BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffalo+5.0
3719-18BUFFE MICHKillHaley Troskyset Julia Johnson+4.3
3820-18E MICHE MICHBlockedManoela Forlinblk Azra Eriç+5.7
3920-19E MICHBUFFAttack errNatalie Slusherset Angelina Siepierski+3.8
4021-19BUFFE MICHKillNatalie Slusherset Julia Johnson+4.9
4121-20E MICHBUFF×3KillAbbie Willisset Maddie Mitchell+4.0
4221-21BUFFBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+6.5
4321-22BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffaloaced Lily Spark+7.2
4422-22BUFFE MICHKillHaley Troskyset Julia Johnson+5.6
4522-23E MICHBUFFBlockedNatalie Slusherblk Ava Kanj+6.6
4623-23BUFFE MICHKillTaeley Mahlerset Lina Govoni+6.5
4723-24E MICHBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+8.5
4824-24BUFFE MICHKillTaeley Mahlerset Lina Govoni+8.5
4924-25E MICHBUFFKillAngelina Siepierskiset Maddie Mitchell+8.5
5024-26BUFFBUFFBlockedLily Sparkblk Abisola Adebayo+10.2

Score shown after each rally, Eastern Mich. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).