Buffalo vs Western Mich. Volleyball: Western Mich. Wins 3-0

FinalFri, Oct 23, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Western Mich. 82.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Western Mich. beat visiting Buffalo 3-0 (25-17, 25-16, 25-15) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Western Mich.'s Izzy Swiercz led with 11 kills, and Leah Richmond added 16 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 10:15 PM CT · final Oct 23

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BUFF	17	16	15	0
W MICH	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Buffalo never reached 20 in a set against Western Mich.

No single rally moved win probability more than 1.5 points. Buffalo peaked at 16% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Western Mich. went in as RallyIQ's 83% pick.

BuffaloWestern Mich.

Break %+26.9 pts
24.551.4
Points won on own serve: 38 of 74 vs 12 of 49. Buffalo sided out 48.6% of the time.
Hitting+.165
.099.264
41 kills, 12 errors vs 29 kills, 17 errors.
Longest run+2
35
Western Mich. scored 5 straight in the third set to stretch a 16–11 lead to 21–11. The set finished 25–15.

Western Mich. above 50Buffalo belowMax swing 1.5%

BuffaloWestern Mich.

Aces: Buffalo 1·Western Mich. 8
Serve err: Buffalo 8·Western Mich. 6
Blocks: Buffalo 6·Western Mich. 31 BS · 10 BA vs 1 BS · 4 BA
Digs: Buffalo 46·Western Mich. 61

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Western Mich. above 50 · Buffalo below

Biggest swing: 1.5% to Western Mich. — set 1, BUFF 0-1 W MICH. Kill by Annalise Patchett (set by Leah Richmond). W MICH win probability 83% → 84%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BUFF 17.1%82.9% W MICH

Buffalo wins

3-0

2.6%

3-1

5.6%

3-2

8.9%

Western Mich. wins

3-0

34.6%

3-1

30.9%

3-2

17.4%

BUFF break %: 37.1% vs this opp
W MICH break %: 44.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Annalise PatchettKill+1.5%
Kill by Annalise Patchett (set by Leah Richmond)
Set 1 · BUFF 0-1 W MICH · W MICH 83% → 84%
02
Hailey CampagnaAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Hailey Campagna
Set 1 · BUFF 0-2 W MICH · W MICH 84% → 86%
03
Ava Kanj&Abbie WillisBlock+1.3%
Cassidy Pratley stuffed by Ava Kanj & Abbie Willis
Set 2 · BUFF 5-5 W MICH · BUFF 8% → 9%
04
Sydney BellAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Sydney Bell
Set 1 · BUFF 1-4 W MICH · W MICH 86% → 87%
05
Cassidy PratleyBlock+1.2%
Hailey Campagna stuffed by Cassidy Pratley
Set 2 · BUFF 5-7 W MICH · W MICH 92% → 93%
06
Annalise PatchettAce+1.1%
Ace by Annalise Patchett on Hailey Campagna
Set 1 · BUFF 3-7 W MICH · W MICH 87% → 88%
07
Annalise PatchettAce+1.1%
Ace by Annalise Patchett on Manoela Forlin
Set 2 · BUFF 2-4 W MICH · W MICH 92% → 93%
08
Elana EricksonKill+1.0%
Kill by Elana Erickson (set by Leah Richmond)
Set 2 · BUFF 5-8 W MICH · W MICH 93% → 94%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Buffaloaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Manoela ForlinOH	3	10	4	39	.154	0	0	1	7	4	0	1	0.5	10.5
4Hailey CampagnaOH	3	10	4	29	.207	0	0	1	8	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
3Sydney BellOPP	3	6	2	26	.154	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
20Abisola AdebayoMB	3	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	2
2Maddie MitchellS	3	0	1	3	-.333	21	0	3	10	0	0	0	0	0
9Ava KanjMB	2	1	2	7	-.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
13Sadie GladhillL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	10	1	0	0	0	1
10Anaya ColeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
15Eve AdamsOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
11Abbie WillisOH	2	1	2	11	-.091	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
16Chloe BrownDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
5Michal BenaimS	2	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
8Tehya ShawMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Nienke TrosselMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	17	121	.099	26	1	8	46	8	1	10	6	48

Western Mich.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Izzy SwierczOH	3	11	2	23	.391	2	1	2	14	0	0	0	0	12
6Annalise PatchettOH	3	7	4	28	.107	1	3	1	6	0	0	0	0	10
12Cassidy PratleyMB	3	7	3	23	.174	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	9
10Gabby WeiheMB	3	8	2	18	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8
2Elana EricksonL/DS	3	3	1	8	.250	2	2	0	15	1	0	2	1	6
4Leah RichmondS	3	5	0	10	.500	28	0	1	16	0	0	0	0	5
3Riley MessengerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	2
19Carley PiercefieldL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
9Ella GuilfoyL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	12	110	.264	38	8	6	61	1	1	4	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Buffalo vs Western Mich.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Fri, Oct 23, 2026Buffalo at Western Mich. · Western Mich. won 3-0This match
Sat, Oct 24, 2026Buffalo at Western Mich. · Buffalo won 3-2Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 BUFF · W MICH 5

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 BUFFW MICH 4

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 BUFFW MICH 4

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 3 BUFFW MICH 5

Bars above the line = Western Mich. leads, below = Buffalo leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Buffalo

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	33%3/9
2	55%6/11	22%2/9
3	46%6/13	0%0/6
4	46%6/13	33%3/9
5	55%6/11	14%1/7
6	50%5/10	33%3/9
All	49%36/74	24%12/49

Western Mich.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	56%9/16
2	100%6/6	57%8/14
3	86%6/7	50%6/12
4	75%6/8	54%7/13
5	67%6/9	25%2/8
6	56%5/9	55%6/11
All	76%37/49	51%38/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

123 rallies

#	BUFF-W MICH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+1.5
2	0-2	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+1.4
3	1-2	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
4	1-3	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Elana Erickson	+1.0
5	1-4	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Sydney Bell		+1.3
6	2-4	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Ava Kanj	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.9
7	2-5	BUFF	W MICH	Serve err	Sadie Gladhill		+0.9
8	3-5	W MICH	BUFF	Blocked	Gabby Weihe	blk Abisola Adebayo, Sydney Bell	+0.9
9	3-6	BUFF	W MICH×4	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.9
10	3-7	W MICH	W MICH×4	Ace	Annalise Patchett	aced Hailey Campagna	+1.1
11	3-8	W MICH	W MICH×4	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+0.9
12	3-9	W MICH	W MICH×4	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.7
13	4-9	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Michal Benaim	+0.4
14	4-10	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.5
15	5-10	W MICH	BUFF	Attack err	Izzy Swiercz		+0.4
16	6-10	BUFF	BUFF	Blocked	Izzy Swiercz	blk Hailey Campagna, Ava Kanj	+0.8
17	6-11	BUFF	W MICH	Serve err	Eve Adams		+0.6
18	6-12	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Annalise Patchett	+0.7
19	7-12	W MICH	BUFF	Blocked	Elana Erickson	blk Ava Kanj, Abbie Willis	+0.4
20	7-13	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Elana Erickson	set Leah Richmond	+0.5
21	7-14	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett		+0.5
22	8-14	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
23	8-15	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.3
24	9-15	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.2
25	9-16	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Sydney Bell	+0.3
26	9-17	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Carley Piercefield	+0.3
27	10-17	W MICH	BUFF	Attack err	Annalise Patchett		+0.1
28	11-17	BUFF	BUFF	Blocked	Annalise Patchett	blk Abisola Adebayo, Manoela Forlin	+0.3
29	11-18	BUFF	W MICH	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.3
30	12-18	W MICH	BUFF	Serve err	Annalise Patchett		+0.2
31	12-19	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.2
32	12-20	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		+0.2
33	13-20	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Abbie Willis	set Michal Benaim	+0.1
34	13-21	BUFF	W MICH	Serve err	Eve Adams		+0.1
35	14-21	W MICH	BUFF×3	Serve err	Izzy Swiercz		·
36	15-21	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
37	16-21	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
38	16-22	BUFF	W MICH×3	Serve err	Maddie Mitchell		+0.3
39	16-23	W MICH	W MICH×3	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Carley Piercefield	+0.2
40	16-24	W MICH	W MICH×3	Ace	Elana Erickson	aced Sadie Gladhill	·
41	17-24	W MICH	BUFF	Attack err	Annalise Patchett		·
42	17-25	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	·
Set 2
1	0-1	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.8
2	1-1	W MICH	BUFF	Serve err	Riley Messenger		+0.8
3	1-2	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Izzy Swiercz	+0.8
4	2-2	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.8
5	2-3	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.8
6	2-4	W MICH	W MICH	Ace	Annalise Patchett	aced Manoela Forlin	+1.1
7	3-4	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna		+0.8
8	3-5	BUFF	W MICH	Attack err	Abbie Willis		+0.7
9	4-5	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Michal Benaim	+0.8
10	5-5	BUFF	BUFF	Blocked	Cassidy Pratley	blk Ava Kanj, Abbie Willis	+1.3
11	5-6	BUFF	W MICH×4	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.9
12	5-7	W MICH	W MICH×4	Blocked	Hailey Campagna	blk Cassidy Pratley	+1.2
13	5-8	W MICH	W MICH×4	Kill	Elana Erickson	set Leah Richmond	+1.0
14	5-9	W MICH	W MICH×4	Blocked	Abbie Willis	blk Cassidy Pratley, Elana Erickson	+0.9
15	6-9	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Michal Benaim	+0.5
16	7-9	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+1.0
17	7-10	BUFF	W MICH×4	Serve err	Maddie Mitchell		+0.7
18	7-11	W MICH	W MICH×4	Bad set	Sydney Bell		+0.9
19	7-12	W MICH	W MICH×4	Attack err	Ava Kanj		+0.7
20	7-13	W MICH	W MICH×4	Ace	Elana Erickson	aced Manoela Forlin	+0.5
21	8-13	W MICH	BUFF	Attack err	Cassidy Pratley		+0.3
22	8-14	BUFF	W MICH×4	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.3
23	8-15	W MICH	W MICH×4	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.3
24	8-16	W MICH	W MICH×4	Attack err	Ava Kanj		+0.2
25	8-17	W MICH	W MICH×4	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Elana Erickson	+0.1
26	9-17	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	·
27	9-18	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
28	10-18	W MICH	BUFF	Serve err	Leah Richmond		·
29	10-19	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
30	11-19	W MICH	BUFF×3	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Manoela Forlin	·
31	12-19	BUFF	BUFF×3	Blocked	Gabby Weihe	blk Abisola Adebayo	+0.1
32	13-19	BUFF	BUFF×3	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Anaya Cole	+0.2
33	13-20	BUFF	W MICH	Serve err	Manoela Forlin		+0.2
34	13-21	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
35	14-21	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	·
36	14-22	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
37	14-23	W MICH	W MICH	Ace	Izzy Swiercz	aced Manoela Forlin	·
38	15-23	W MICH	BUFF	Serve err	Izzy Swiercz		·
39	15-24	BUFF	W MICH	Blocked	Sydney Bell	blk Cassidy Pratley, Elana Erickson	·
40	16-24	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	·
41	16-25	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	·
Set 3
1	1-0	W MICH	BUFF×3	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
2	2-0	BUFF	BUFF×3	Attack err	Annalise Patchett		+0.7
3	3-0	BUFF	BUFF×3	Ace	Sadie Gladhill	aced Elana Erickson	+0.7
4	3-1	BUFF	W MICH×3	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.4
5	3-2	W MICH	W MICH×3	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.7
6	3-3	W MICH	W MICH×3	Ace	Riley Messenger	aced Manoela Forlin	+0.6
7	4-3	W MICH	BUFF	Serve err	Riley Messenger		+0.5
8	4-4	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.4
9	4-5	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.6
10	5-5	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.4
11	5-6	BUFF	W MICH×3	Attack err	Abisola Adebayo		+0.4
12	5-7	W MICH	W MICH×3	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.6
13	5-8	W MICH	W MICH×3	Ace	Annalise Patchett	aced Anaya Cole	+0.5
14	6-8	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
15	6-9	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.3
16	7-9	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
17	7-10	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Ella Guilfoy	+0.4
18	7-11	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Elana Erickson	set Leah Richmond	+0.4
19	8-11	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
20	9-11	BUFF	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.5
21	9-12	BUFF	W MICH	Serve err	Hailey Campagna		+0.4
22	9-13	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Sadie Gladhill	+0.5
23	10-13	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Sydney Bell	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.3
24	10-14	BUFF	W MICH×3	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		+0.3
25	10-15	W MICH	W MICH×3	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Izzy Swiercz	+0.4
26	10-16	W MICH	W MICH×3	Ace	Riley Messenger	aced Abisola Adebayo	+0.2
27	11-16	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Tehya Shaw	set Maddie Mitchell	+0.1
28	11-17	BUFF	W MICH×5	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.2
29	11-18	W MICH	W MICH×5	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Carley Piercefield	+0.1
30	11-19	W MICH	W MICH×5	Attack err	Maddie Mitchell		+0.1
31	11-20	W MICH	W MICH×5	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Carley Piercefield	·
32	11-21	W MICH	W MICH×5	Attack err	Manoela Forlin		·
33	12-21	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	·
34	12-22	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	·
35	12-23	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Hailey Campagna		·
36	13-23	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Hailey Campagna	set Maddie Mitchell	·
37	13-24	BUFF	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	·
38	14-24	W MICH	BUFF	Kill	Manoela Forlin	set Maddie Mitchell	·
39	15-24	BUFF	BUFF	Attack err	Cassidy Pratley		·
40	15-25	BUFF	W MICH	Serve err	Maddie Mitchell		·

Score shown after each rally, Buffalo first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Western Mich. def. Buffalo 3–0

Buffalo never reached 20 in a set against Western Mich.